WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:06.720 I want to begin by acknowledging with all of you that we're gathering on the traditional country of the Kaurna people of the Adelaide Plains 2 00:00:06.720 --> 00:00:12.660 and we recognise and respect their cultural heritage, their beliefs, their relationships with the land 3 00:00:12.660 --> 00:00:17.620 and we acknowledge that these are of continuing importance to the Kaurna people living today 4 00:00:17.620 --> 00:00:20.520 and that we respect their elders past and present. 5 00:00:20.960 --> 00:00:26.480 And for those of you who are in the Twitter universe, our tweet handle is 6 00:00:26.480 --> 00:00:30.380 and the hashtag is 7 00:00:32.480 --> 00:00:36.220 and Instagram is also available on the same kind of letters. 8 00:00:37.340 --> 00:00:38.900 So on to our topic. 9 00:00:39.100 --> 00:00:43.460 There's no doubt that the world of work is changing very dramatically around us. 10 00:00:44.400 --> 00:00:46.360 The death of work has long been predicted. 11 00:00:46.620 --> 00:00:51.980 In fact, in 1930, John Maynard Keynes, the wonderful economist, wrote an essay titled 12 00:00:51.980 --> 00:00:54.280 Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren 13 00:00:54.280 --> 00:00:56.460 where he made the startling prediction 14 00:00:56.480 --> 00:01:01.260 that by the time his grandchildren came along, we'd all be working 15 hours a week. 15 00:01:02.580 --> 00:01:06.400 Ironically, Keynes died of overwork, very sadly. 16 00:01:07.260 --> 00:01:09.200 A wonderful person and died way too young. 17 00:01:09.980 --> 00:01:15.040 And NPR radio in the US recently went looking for the generation of his own grandchildren. 18 00:01:15.060 --> 00:01:17.060 He had no children, but his sister had children 19 00:01:17.060 --> 00:01:21.400 and they found two of those, effectively, grandchildren generation. 20 00:01:21.440 --> 00:01:25.480 One was working as an academic and the other was a psychotherapist. 21 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:26.460 They found... 22 00:01:26.460 --> 00:01:29.940 They both worked more than 50 hours a week and struggled to have a holiday. 23 00:01:30.280 --> 00:01:33.160 So Keynes' prophecy hasn't quite come true 24 00:01:33.160 --> 00:01:38.300 and today we're going to pick up many of the issues that he and many others talk about 25 00:01:38.300 --> 00:01:40.260 and a lot of us think about in our daily lives. 26 00:01:40.340 --> 00:01:43.660 So it's wonderful to have Tim talking to us. 27 00:01:43.700 --> 00:01:45.520 Tim has a PhD in political philosophy. 28 00:01:45.980 --> 00:01:49.780 He's written and broadcast extensively in the US and in Australian politics 29 00:01:49.780 --> 00:01:52.700 and he's well known in the media. 30 00:01:52.900 --> 00:01:56.440 He's a frequent contributor to public discussions about media and politics. 31 00:01:56.460 --> 00:02:00.060 He's been involved in work on a number of media start-ups 32 00:02:00.060 --> 00:02:03.400 and his latest book is Why the Future is Workless 33 00:02:03.400 --> 00:02:07.800 and it is available in many places, including at any airport that you happen to be passing through, 34 00:02:07.940 --> 00:02:11.460 which is the height of success for an author, 35 00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:14.260 something that makes you very pleased when you're walking through a bookshop. 36 00:02:14.300 --> 00:02:15.320 I've never had that experience. 37 00:02:16.800 --> 00:02:19.880 Tim teaches entrepreneurial journalism to postgraduate students 38 00:02:19.880 --> 00:02:22.780 at Melbourne University's Centre for Advancing Journalism 39 00:02:22.780 --> 00:02:25.480 and he lives in Melbourne with his wife and son. 40 00:02:25.620 --> 00:02:26.220 Please welcome. 41 00:02:26.460 --> 00:02:26.680 Tim. 42 00:02:34.000 --> 00:02:37.160 Thank you very much, Barbara, and thank you everyone for having me along today. 43 00:02:37.220 --> 00:02:40.480 I'm just trying to work out if I can read this without my glasses. 44 00:02:40.540 --> 00:02:41.360 I think I can. 45 00:02:41.440 --> 00:02:43.840 I think I printed it large enough to do that. 46 00:02:46.540 --> 00:02:50.360 So I've been asked to talk about the new book that Barbara just mentioned 47 00:02:50.360 --> 00:02:51.880 and the issues it raises 48 00:02:51.880 --> 00:02:55.440 and I thought I might begin by trying to explain 49 00:02:55.440 --> 00:02:56.440 how I came to know about the book. 50 00:02:56.440 --> 00:02:57.120 So I came to write it 51 00:02:57.120 --> 00:02:59.360 and it began about four years ago 52 00:02:59.360 --> 00:03:01.100 with a discussion with my parents 53 00:03:01.100 --> 00:03:04.680 and we were talking about the jobs that I'd had in my life 54 00:03:05.340 --> 00:03:07.660 and we talked about the very first job I had 55 00:03:07.660 --> 00:03:11.360 which was working for my dad in a service station that he owned in Canberra 56 00:03:11.880 --> 00:03:15.080 and, you know, this is a hundred years ago sort of thing. 57 00:03:15.140 --> 00:03:17.840 This is back in the days when they really were service stations 58 00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:20.500 and we used to run out and fill up the cars with petrol 59 00:03:20.500 --> 00:03:22.900 and check the oil and water and get down and do the tyres 60 00:03:22.900 --> 00:03:25.240 and clean windscreens and all that stuff. 61 00:03:26.440 --> 00:03:30.560 It's a job I probably remember with more fondness in hindsight 62 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:32.840 than I actually felt at the time. 63 00:03:33.100 --> 00:03:37.700 I can remember on one occasion a guy pulling into the driveway. 64 00:03:38.100 --> 00:03:40.200 He got out, opened up his bonnet 65 00:03:40.200 --> 00:03:43.080 and he told me that he needed a quart of oil. 66 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:47.980 So I went and collected the quart of oil from the rack next to the petrol pump 67 00:03:48.660 --> 00:03:50.940 and by the time I got round to the front of the car 68 00:03:50.940 --> 00:03:53.340 he'd, as I said, opened the bonnet 69 00:03:53.340 --> 00:03:55.220 but he'd also taken off the radiator cap 70 00:03:55.220 --> 00:03:56.420 and he'd won the car. 71 00:03:56.420 --> 00:03:57.500 Wandered off, yes, exactly. 72 00:03:57.840 --> 00:03:59.860 He'd wandered off to get the water. 73 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:02.500 Me, I just saw the hole and went... 74 00:04:04.180 --> 00:04:06.580 Upended the quart of oil into his radiator. 75 00:04:08.520 --> 00:04:11.260 My dad was standing about 20 feet away 76 00:04:11.260 --> 00:04:13.660 and he saw it happening 77 00:04:13.660 --> 00:04:17.540 and it must have unfolded like a slow motion nightmare for him, I think. 78 00:04:17.780 --> 00:04:20.380 He reached me without his feet touching the ground, 79 00:04:21.020 --> 00:04:22.600 snatched the oil bottle away 80 00:04:22.600 --> 00:04:24.480 but the damage was already done. 81 00:04:25.400 --> 00:04:26.400 Fortunately for me, 82 00:04:26.400 --> 00:04:28.820 the customer was incredibly understanding 83 00:04:28.820 --> 00:04:31.800 and we just kind of rolled the car over a drain 84 00:04:31.800 --> 00:04:33.400 and flushed out the radiator 85 00:04:33.400 --> 00:04:35.980 and I think everything was okay. 86 00:04:36.380 --> 00:04:37.720 I'm not really sure. 87 00:04:38.000 --> 00:04:39.500 By an amazing coincidence, 88 00:04:40.180 --> 00:04:41.360 about a week later, 89 00:04:41.440 --> 00:04:42.540 Dad came home and said, 90 00:04:42.700 --> 00:04:45.520 Hey, I got you a job interview at the local record shop. 91 00:04:47.640 --> 00:04:49.340 Maybe you'd like to do that. 92 00:04:50.460 --> 00:04:52.460 And he was right, I did. 93 00:04:52.700 --> 00:04:54.280 And actually, look, to this day, 94 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:55.040 I'd have to say, 95 00:04:55.040 --> 00:04:58.080 the record shop job's probably the best job I've ever had. 96 00:04:58.300 --> 00:05:00.580 I worked there Friday nights and Saturday mornings 97 00:05:00.580 --> 00:05:03.280 and then I took two years off after school to third university 98 00:05:03.280 --> 00:05:05.060 so that I could keep working there. 99 00:05:05.740 --> 00:05:06.880 It was actually the... 100 00:05:06.880 --> 00:05:07.900 It was in Canberra. 101 00:05:07.940 --> 00:05:09.720 It was actually the largest record shop in Australia 102 00:05:09.720 --> 00:05:13.420 and I ended up as what we called the record buyer 103 00:05:13.420 --> 00:05:15.120 so I was in charge of, you know, stock. 104 00:05:16.360 --> 00:05:19.780 And that meant I got to sit out the back with the reps every week 105 00:05:19.780 --> 00:05:21.460 and listen to all the new releases 106 00:05:21.460 --> 00:05:23.660 before they were hit the shelves. 107 00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:25.020 So, you know, it was pretty much... 108 00:05:25.040 --> 00:05:26.160 It was like heaven, I have to say. 109 00:05:27.200 --> 00:05:28.940 My boss was a guy called Terry 110 00:05:28.940 --> 00:05:30.960 who was a really brilliant manager 111 00:05:30.960 --> 00:05:33.900 and I think he kind of trusted my musical knowledge 112 00:05:33.900 --> 00:05:37.560 but he was insanely vigilant about stock levels 113 00:05:37.560 --> 00:05:40.620 and was always at me not to order too much. 114 00:05:41.660 --> 00:05:42.840 Actually, he said to me once, 115 00:05:42.980 --> 00:05:44.820 To you, it's music 116 00:05:44.820 --> 00:05:46.900 and it's the most important thing in the world. 117 00:05:47.000 --> 00:05:48.500 To me, it could be sausages. 118 00:05:50.460 --> 00:05:53.580 I was actually working there in that shop 119 00:05:53.580 --> 00:05:55.020 the day that John Lennon... 120 00:05:55.040 --> 00:05:55.220 Lennon died. 121 00:05:55.740 --> 00:05:59.060 And Terry, my boss, he was out of the store at the time 122 00:05:59.060 --> 00:06:01.660 but I didn't really need to be told what to do. 123 00:06:01.720 --> 00:06:04.200 The shop sold out of Lennon albums and Beatle albums 124 00:06:04.200 --> 00:06:07.080 within about 15 minutes of the announcement of Lennon's death. 125 00:06:07.420 --> 00:06:08.740 So I flew upstairs 126 00:06:09.460 --> 00:06:13.320 and I placed an order for Beatles albums and Lennon albums 127 00:06:13.320 --> 00:06:17.420 and I placed a really big order for all these albums. 128 00:06:18.580 --> 00:06:21.520 Terry arrived back at the store about an hour later 129 00:06:21.520 --> 00:06:22.840 bursting in, 130 00:06:22.960 --> 00:06:24.020 Did you hear the news? 131 00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:24.860 Did you hear the news? 132 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:26.880 And I said, yes, yes, we heard the news. 133 00:06:27.000 --> 00:06:27.900 Have you ordered? 134 00:06:28.420 --> 00:06:29.940 Yes, I said, we've ordered. 135 00:06:30.100 --> 00:06:32.220 And, you know, I pulled out the stock cards 136 00:06:32.220 --> 00:06:33.500 and handed him the stock cards 137 00:06:33.500 --> 00:06:34.880 because it was stock cards in those days. 138 00:06:34.900 --> 00:06:36.200 We didn't have computers, of course. 139 00:06:37.060 --> 00:06:39.140 And, you know, there was a dread in my heart 140 00:06:39.140 --> 00:06:41.640 at the size of this order that he was now examining 141 00:06:41.640 --> 00:06:42.760 and he looked it over 142 00:06:43.180 --> 00:06:44.900 and he looked me in the eye 143 00:06:44.900 --> 00:06:45.960 and he said, 144 00:06:46.120 --> 00:06:47.780 Go upstairs and double it. 145 00:06:49.400 --> 00:06:51.300 First and last time that ever happened. 146 00:06:52.540 --> 00:06:53.740 Anyway, later that day, 147 00:06:53.840 --> 00:06:54.940 the shop's closed. 148 00:06:55.040 --> 00:06:56.700 We're ringing off the cash registers. 149 00:06:57.400 --> 00:06:58.640 And I took a moment 150 00:06:58.640 --> 00:07:00.160 and I said to Terry, 151 00:07:00.340 --> 00:07:01.220 You know, it's actually, 152 00:07:01.340 --> 00:07:03.780 it's really sad what's happened. 153 00:07:04.340 --> 00:07:06.340 It is, he said, seriously, 154 00:07:06.460 --> 00:07:07.940 won't be as big as Elvis. 155 00:07:13.260 --> 00:07:14.900 So, eventually I did start, 156 00:07:14.980 --> 00:07:15.900 I did go to university 157 00:07:15.900 --> 00:07:18.660 but I also started writing freelance, 158 00:07:18.740 --> 00:07:20.060 first for music magazines 159 00:07:20.060 --> 00:07:21.440 and then others 160 00:07:21.440 --> 00:07:23.500 and then I moved to Melbourne 161 00:07:23.500 --> 00:07:24.960 and with a couple of other guys, 162 00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:27.260 we opened one of the first video libraries there. 163 00:07:28.060 --> 00:07:29.560 Later, I taught at university 164 00:07:29.560 --> 00:07:31.460 and I've been writing books and articles 165 00:07:31.460 --> 00:07:33.780 and the point I'm making with all of this 166 00:07:33.780 --> 00:07:36.740 is that every single one of those industries 167 00:07:36.740 --> 00:07:38.000 that I've been involved with 168 00:07:38.000 --> 00:07:40.360 has been totally upended by technology 169 00:07:40.360 --> 00:07:42.520 in the time that I've, 170 00:07:42.620 --> 00:07:44.280 you know, in my working life. 171 00:07:44.600 --> 00:07:47.440 So, service stations were turned self-serve 172 00:07:47.440 --> 00:07:48.200 by automation. 173 00:07:48.800 --> 00:07:51.220 Record and video shops no longer exist 174 00:07:51.220 --> 00:07:53.420 and we stream music and films. 175 00:07:54.280 --> 00:07:55.020 Journalism has been turned into a business. 176 00:07:55.020 --> 00:07:57.120 There's been a lot of digitalisation 177 00:07:57.120 --> 00:08:01.240 and even universities are increasingly teaching online 178 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:04.020 and employing people on short-term contracts. 179 00:08:04.540 --> 00:08:06.780 So, this was kind of the inspiration for the book. 180 00:08:06.980 --> 00:08:09.080 I wanted to understand what was happening 181 00:08:09.820 --> 00:08:11.920 and, you know, with a son of my own, 182 00:08:12.060 --> 00:08:13.860 I wanted to know what sorts of jobs 183 00:08:13.860 --> 00:08:15.720 were likely to be available for him. 184 00:08:16.280 --> 00:08:18.080 So, what I'm going to talk about today 185 00:08:18.840 --> 00:08:20.340 pushes the boat out 186 00:08:20.340 --> 00:08:22.840 a bit beyond those immediate concerns 187 00:08:22.840 --> 00:08:24.200 into immediate, 188 00:08:25.020 --> 00:08:25.660 medium-term future. 189 00:08:26.200 --> 00:08:27.980 Nonetheless, I hope that what I say today 190 00:08:27.980 --> 00:08:29.400 and what I talk about in the book 191 00:08:30.200 --> 00:08:31.560 gets us thinking about 192 00:08:31.560 --> 00:08:33.380 where the world of work is heading. 193 00:08:33.800 --> 00:08:36.600 The book looks ahead about 20-odd years 194 00:08:36.600 --> 00:08:38.800 but a key point it makes 195 00:08:38.800 --> 00:08:41.520 is that we're already in a period of transition. 196 00:08:42.020 --> 00:08:44.320 Lots of things about work are already changing 197 00:08:44.320 --> 00:08:47.300 and, to me, this means we have to start planning now. 198 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:49.940 In what follows, I'll talk about 199 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:52.480 how many jobs are likely to disappear 200 00:08:52.480 --> 00:08:54.880 and what's likely to replace them. 201 00:08:55.020 --> 00:08:56.900 I'll talk about the sorts of skills 202 00:08:56.900 --> 00:08:58.160 that people are going to need 203 00:08:58.160 --> 00:09:00.000 for those jobs of the future. 204 00:09:00.680 --> 00:09:02.720 And I'll offer some tentative thoughts 205 00:09:02.720 --> 00:09:04.700 on what the world might look like 206 00:09:04.700 --> 00:09:07.220 as automation increasingly does 207 00:09:07.220 --> 00:09:09.840 the jobs that we humans now do. 208 00:09:11.160 --> 00:09:13.140 And I also want to say something briefly 209 00:09:13.140 --> 00:09:15.560 about the role of government in all of this. 210 00:09:15.780 --> 00:09:17.440 So, more often than not, 211 00:09:17.460 --> 00:09:19.940 the question that I'm asked about the book is 212 00:09:19.940 --> 00:09:22.180 will a robot take my job? 213 00:09:22.400 --> 00:09:24.100 And my answer is 214 00:09:24.100 --> 00:09:25.700 that's the wrong question. 215 00:09:25.900 --> 00:09:27.460 As I say in the book's introduction, 216 00:09:27.800 --> 00:09:29.080 if all you want to know 217 00:09:29.600 --> 00:09:31.300 is whether a robot will be able to, 218 00:09:31.400 --> 00:09:32.860 at some point in the future, 219 00:09:33.060 --> 00:09:34.660 do the job that you do, 220 00:09:34.880 --> 00:09:36.560 then I can save you a lot of bother. 221 00:09:36.660 --> 00:09:37.640 The answer is yes. 222 00:09:38.580 --> 00:09:41.100 Robots or technologies of some sort will. 223 00:09:41.700 --> 00:09:43.980 The rule of thumb for thinking about this 224 00:09:43.980 --> 00:09:47.120 is that if you can write down the rules for a job, 225 00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:49.880 then a machine is likely to be able to do it. 226 00:09:51.700 --> 00:09:54.080 Nonetheless, estimates of job losses from audiences 227 00:09:54.100 --> 00:09:55.200 to automation vary greatly, 228 00:09:55.440 --> 00:09:58.040 and there are certainly those who think that concerns 229 00:09:58.040 --> 00:10:02.100 about technological unemployment are exaggerated. 230 00:10:04.220 --> 00:10:06.780 The most famous report suggesting 231 00:10:06.780 --> 00:10:09.080 that there will be big job losses 232 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:12.760 is one written by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne 233 00:10:12.760 --> 00:10:14.760 of the Oxford Martin School. 234 00:10:15.160 --> 00:10:17.860 They examined 702 jobs, 235 00:10:17.940 --> 00:10:19.740 which is the number of jobs listed by the 236 00:10:19.740 --> 00:10:21.560 United States Department of Labour. 237 00:10:21.720 --> 00:10:23.880 They examined them against various criteria 238 00:10:24.100 --> 00:10:26.700 and then ranked them in order from the least 239 00:10:26.700 --> 00:10:29.180 to the most likely to be automated. 240 00:10:29.560 --> 00:10:32.700 And their much publicised conclusion was that 241 00:10:32.700 --> 00:10:37.320 47% of those 702 jobs would be lost, 242 00:10:37.400 --> 00:10:39.080 disappear within 20 years. 243 00:10:40.420 --> 00:10:41.620 Responding to this, 244 00:10:41.720 --> 00:10:45.120 the OECD conducted their own survey. 245 00:10:45.180 --> 00:10:48.140 They criticised Frey and Osborne's methodology, 246 00:10:48.420 --> 00:10:50.620 and they suggested that instead of using 247 00:10:50.620 --> 00:10:51.920 a jobs-based assessment, 248 00:10:52.160 --> 00:10:54.080 it made more sense to use a 249 00:10:54.080 --> 00:10:56.540 skills-based approach. 250 00:10:56.920 --> 00:10:59.860 That is, most jobs that we do require 251 00:10:59.860 --> 00:11:01.500 more than a single skill. 252 00:11:01.700 --> 00:11:05.220 So if you examine the skills involved in a single job 253 00:11:05.220 --> 00:11:08.160 and assess how likely they are to be automated, 254 00:11:08.500 --> 00:11:11.980 then the overall job losses are likely 255 00:11:11.980 --> 00:11:13.380 to be considerably lower. 256 00:11:13.680 --> 00:11:17.000 So where Frey and Osborne said 47%, 257 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:23.220 the OECD concluded that only, only 9% of jobs 258 00:11:23.220 --> 00:11:24.060 were likely to be disabled. 259 00:11:24.080 --> 00:11:27.160 I'm just going to have a sip of water here. 260 00:11:31.060 --> 00:11:34.760 OK, so just as you're breathing a sigh of relief about that, 261 00:11:34.920 --> 00:11:36.580 along came McKinsey and Company. 262 00:11:36.780 --> 00:11:39.640 Now, like the OECD, they took a task-based approach, 263 00:11:39.720 --> 00:11:41.000 did a similar sort of survey. 264 00:11:43.600 --> 00:11:45.200 And they concluded... 265 00:11:45.200 --> 00:11:46.420 Well, their conclusion says this. 266 00:11:46.780 --> 00:11:49.540 The key point was the bottom line, they said, 267 00:11:49.580 --> 00:11:54.060 is that 45% of work activities could be automated. 268 00:11:54.080 --> 00:11:57.360 Automated using already demonstrated technology. 269 00:11:58.080 --> 00:11:59.300 That is, it could happen right now. 270 00:11:59.320 --> 00:12:03.060 The technology already exists to replace 45% of the tasks 271 00:12:03.060 --> 00:12:03.880 that they looked at. 272 00:12:05.080 --> 00:12:06.960 Now, as I say, not everyone is convinced 273 00:12:06.960 --> 00:12:08.580 by these kind of big figures. 274 00:12:09.000 --> 00:12:11.560 MIT economist David Autor, for instance, 275 00:12:11.720 --> 00:12:14.380 talks about what he calls technological anxiety. 276 00:12:14.860 --> 00:12:19.800 And he mocks such concerns in his influential paper, 277 00:12:19.900 --> 00:12:20.780 which is called... 278 00:12:20.780 --> 00:12:22.640 Not even... 279 00:12:22.640 --> 00:12:24.060 ..remotely, so to speak, 280 00:12:24.060 --> 00:12:25.100 but sarcastically, he called it, 281 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:26.680 Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? 282 00:12:28.260 --> 00:12:30.420 His paper is basically a version 283 00:12:30.420 --> 00:12:32.540 of what's called the Luddite fallacy. 284 00:12:32.600 --> 00:12:36.260 And his argument is that while technology may substitute 285 00:12:36.260 --> 00:12:40.040 for some types of labour, it is complementary to others. 286 00:12:40.500 --> 00:12:44.640 Therefore, computers may change the types of jobs being done, 287 00:12:44.800 --> 00:12:49.200 but there's no definite reduction in the total amount of work. 288 00:12:51.920 --> 00:12:54.020 So maybe that makes everybody feel better. 289 00:12:54.060 --> 00:12:54.400 I don't know. 290 00:12:56.740 --> 00:12:58.540 There are others, though. 291 00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:02.060 Other economists argue that what the proponents 292 00:13:02.700 --> 00:13:04.540 of the Luddite fallacy ignore 293 00:13:04.540 --> 00:13:07.760 is the reduction in work hours that comes with automation. 294 00:13:09.660 --> 00:13:11.740 Michael Burnley, for instance, points out 295 00:13:11.740 --> 00:13:13.920 that since the late 1800s, 296 00:13:13.920 --> 00:13:16.720 there's been a reduction in working hours 297 00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:21.020 of around about 50% since around the 1800s. 298 00:13:21.040 --> 00:13:24.040 It's ticked up a little again from about the late 80s, 299 00:13:24.040 --> 00:13:26.020 but overall, 50% reduction. 300 00:13:26.340 --> 00:13:29.040 So, in other words, if we still worked the same hours 301 00:13:29.040 --> 00:13:31.980 we did back then, the unemployment rate would be around about 50%. 302 00:13:31.980 --> 00:13:35.040 Another way of putting this, as Burnley and others do, 303 00:13:35.260 --> 00:13:39.600 is that what we have is a distribution problem, 304 00:13:39.820 --> 00:13:41.120 not a production problem. 305 00:13:41.400 --> 00:13:44.560 So, if anything, the industrialised world 306 00:13:44.560 --> 00:13:46.520 suffers from overproduction. 307 00:13:46.760 --> 00:13:50.040 All the stuff we want and not enough time to enjoy it. 308 00:13:50.960 --> 00:13:54.020 So we don't need more jobs in order to produce. 309 00:13:54.020 --> 00:13:57.000 We need the jobs to give people access 310 00:13:57.000 --> 00:13:59.220 through the wages earned 311 00:14:00.060 --> 00:14:02.440 to the things that would have been produced 312 00:14:02.440 --> 00:14:04.560 whether they were working in the job or not. 313 00:14:04.920 --> 00:14:08.220 In the words of author William Gibson, 314 00:14:08.460 --> 00:14:10.040 the future is already here, 315 00:14:10.200 --> 00:14:12.480 it's just not very evenly distributed. 316 00:14:14.580 --> 00:14:16.600 So, the question then becomes, 317 00:14:16.780 --> 00:14:19.320 how do we distribute the fruits of production 318 00:14:19.320 --> 00:14:22.300 when machines do more and more of the work? 319 00:14:22.880 --> 00:14:23.480 Now, 320 00:14:24.280 --> 00:14:26.640 two solutions present themselves. 321 00:14:26.940 --> 00:14:29.300 The first is shorter working hours, 322 00:14:29.340 --> 00:14:30.680 which I've kind of alluded to already. 323 00:14:31.020 --> 00:14:34.020 And the second is something called universal basic income. 324 00:14:34.880 --> 00:14:36.400 And I'll talk about both of these 325 00:14:37.020 --> 00:14:38.440 in a little bit more detail in a sec. 326 00:14:39.220 --> 00:14:41.080 Anyway, where does this leave us at this point? 327 00:14:41.180 --> 00:14:43.740 The best-case scenario, according to this sort of research, 328 00:14:43.980 --> 00:14:46.500 is that 10% of current jobs disappear 329 00:14:47.740 --> 00:14:49.120 within about 20 years, 330 00:14:49.260 --> 00:14:52.640 moving up to estimates of around about 50%. 331 00:14:54.020 --> 00:14:55.640 Personally, I think the 10% figure 332 00:14:55.640 --> 00:14:58.500 is liable to be a little bit too optimistic. 333 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:00.280 And the reason I think that 334 00:15:00.280 --> 00:15:02.760 is because I think it underestimates 335 00:15:02.760 --> 00:15:05.220 the nature of the changes that are happening 336 00:15:05.220 --> 00:15:09.560 and why they are qualitatively different 337 00:15:09.560 --> 00:15:10.760 to what's happened before. 338 00:15:11.220 --> 00:15:13.320 So, there are three big factors 339 00:15:13.320 --> 00:15:15.540 driving this sort of shift to worklessness. 340 00:15:15.920 --> 00:15:19.580 First is that the machines themselves are simply smarter. 341 00:15:20.140 --> 00:15:22.280 So, it's not just factory work 342 00:15:22.280 --> 00:15:26.080 and repetitive tasks that can be replaced by machines. 343 00:15:26.520 --> 00:15:29.420 Now, cognitive skills, white-collar jobs, 344 00:15:29.520 --> 00:15:30.340 are threatened as well. 345 00:15:30.480 --> 00:15:33.680 Everything from, you know, including accounting and law, 346 00:15:33.880 --> 00:15:36.300 machine learning and artificial intelligence 347 00:15:36.300 --> 00:15:40.540 are starting to be able to do this sort of work as well. 348 00:15:40.720 --> 00:15:41.780 And this is unprecedented. 349 00:15:42.500 --> 00:15:44.520 The next factor is what I call 350 00:15:44.520 --> 00:15:46.280 the shift from post-industrial... 351 00:15:46.820 --> 00:15:48.600 Well, post-industrialisation. 352 00:15:48.600 --> 00:15:50.720 That is, wealth is being generated 353 00:15:50.720 --> 00:15:52.260 not through making money, 354 00:15:52.280 --> 00:15:52.440 making things, 355 00:15:52.760 --> 00:15:54.840 but through the use and manipulation 356 00:15:54.840 --> 00:15:56.440 of knowledge and information. 357 00:15:56.960 --> 00:15:59.800 And the thing with those sorts of businesses is 358 00:15:59.800 --> 00:16:02.380 they simply need fewer employees. 359 00:16:02.980 --> 00:16:06.460 So, you know, there's a bunch of examples I can give you. 360 00:16:06.840 --> 00:16:10.160 Kodak used to employ 140,000 people 361 00:16:10.160 --> 00:16:12.620 and was valued at $28 billion. 362 00:16:13.020 --> 00:16:16.580 And it's now bankrupt, thanks to digitisation. 363 00:16:17.000 --> 00:16:18.900 Its modern equivalent, if you like, 364 00:16:19.080 --> 00:16:20.620 is probably Instagram. 365 00:16:20.620 --> 00:16:24.920 Instagram was sold to Facebook in 2012 for $1 billion, 366 00:16:25.200 --> 00:16:30.100 and at the time, Instagram employed 12 people. 367 00:16:31.220 --> 00:16:35.360 Facebook itself is the sixth-largest company in the US, 368 00:16:35.420 --> 00:16:38.760 but it employs 12,000 people full-time. 369 00:16:38.920 --> 00:16:39.700 That's all. 370 00:16:39.980 --> 00:16:42.120 Compare that to, say, General Motors, 371 00:16:42.260 --> 00:16:43.840 which during the 1980s 372 00:16:43.840 --> 00:16:47.280 employed 349,000 people in the US alone. 373 00:16:48.780 --> 00:16:50.600 Netflix employs just that. 374 00:16:50.600 --> 00:16:52.000 It employs just over 3,000 people, 375 00:16:52.160 --> 00:16:53.660 including part-timers, 376 00:16:53.760 --> 00:16:57.880 whereas the CBS television network in the United States 377 00:16:58.920 --> 00:17:01.060 employs 16,000 people. 378 00:17:01.480 --> 00:17:03.860 And Netflix is worth more than CBS. 379 00:17:04.620 --> 00:17:06.440 The third thing that's happening 380 00:17:06.440 --> 00:17:10.140 is structural change in how businesses work. 381 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:12.980 So, where firms were once, like GM, 382 00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:14.740 were once stand-alone... 383 00:17:15.600 --> 00:17:15.840 Pardon me. 384 00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:18.840 ..silos dedicated to doing one key thing 385 00:17:18.840 --> 00:17:20.580 and so benefited from it, 386 00:17:20.600 --> 00:17:20.840 is that they're now 387 00:17:20.840 --> 00:17:21.840 having a full-time workforce. 388 00:17:22.460 --> 00:17:25.900 They are increasingly parts of networks 389 00:17:25.900 --> 00:17:30.140 that come together on the basis of given projects, 390 00:17:30.420 --> 00:17:33.760 pulling in specialist workers on a short-term basis. 391 00:17:34.180 --> 00:17:36.460 So, this third point means that 392 00:17:36.460 --> 00:17:39.080 even where there aren't job losses per se, 393 00:17:39.240 --> 00:17:42.700 the trend is towards casual, short-term work. 394 00:17:42.880 --> 00:17:45.620 So, even if the jobs don't disappear, 395 00:17:46.420 --> 00:17:48.940 they're likely to be more precarious, 396 00:17:48.940 --> 00:17:51.380 part-time, casual, short-term contracts, 397 00:17:51.540 --> 00:17:52.180 that sort of thing. 398 00:17:57.480 --> 00:17:59.240 And this shift is happening already. 399 00:17:59.660 --> 00:18:02.580 Recent Department of Labor figures in the US 400 00:18:02.580 --> 00:18:05.300 show that 40% of the US workforce 401 00:18:05.300 --> 00:18:07.140