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<v Chair>Hi, I'm Barry Brook. I work at the University of Adelaide on climate change issues, and

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<v Chair>I was also involved with the Equinox 2030 Summit, which Wilson is going to tell you

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<v Chair>about today, a very exciting event that took place in Canada earlier this year. I'd like

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<v Chair>to acknowledge that we meet on the lands of the Kaurna people, the traditional owners

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<v Chair>of this land, and I'd like to welcome you all to this Adelaide Festival of Ideas event.

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<v Chair>Now, although you have to switch your mobile phones to silent, you can still tweet.

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<v Chair>And we would encourage that. The hashtag for the event, the Adelaide Festival of Ideas

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<v Chair>is hash AFOI, and the tweet, the Twitter account is Ideas Adelaide. All right, let's get on

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<v Chair>with it. I'd like to introduce our speaker, who was one of the people who came up with

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<v Chair>the idea of the event and helped coordinate the Equinox 2030 Summit, Wilson De Silva,

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<v Chair>who's editor-in-chief and co-founder of Cosmos magazine, the Australian-based

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<v Chair>literary science magazine. Now, he was formerly an on-air reporter at the ABC, and he served

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<v Chair>as president of the World Federation of Science Journalists, and he's a winner of 31 awards

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<v Chair>in science journalism, which is very impressive. And that includes the AFI Award for Best Documentary,

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<v Chair>two Editor of the Year trophies for his work at Cosmos. And before that, he worked at newspapers

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<v Chair>such as the Sydney Morning Herald and as a technology writer at The Age. He's also worked

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<v Chair>as a foreign correspondent for Reuters, and was science editor at ABC Online and a former

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<v Chair>Sydney correspondent for New Scientist, so he's really done it all. So I'd like to introduce

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<v Chair>Wilson De Silva to hear more about the Equinox 2030 Summit.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Thanks, Barry. You make me sound like a hundred, but that's because I actually am.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>What, can I say how impressed I am that a discussion about the next 20 or 30 years of

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<v Wilson Da Silva>energy attracts such a crowd? I'm very impressed. But we are in Adelaide,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>which is the home of the Festival of Ideas, so it's appropriate, isn't it? We have a populace

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<v Wilson Da Silva>who's interested in ideas. And one of the ideas that has emerged came out of an experiment

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<v Wilson Da Silva>that Barry and I were involved with. It was an experiment I've got to say I found transformative

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and found a great pleasure to be involved with. And we hope you'll be hearing about

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<v Wilson Da Silva>it next year when the rollout of the results start.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So what happened with this experiment? What is the Equinox Summit Energy 2030?

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We brought together scientists, policy people, technical experts, entrepreneurs, and young people

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<v Wilson Da Silva>to discuss how we might achieve a massive reduction in humanity's contribution to climate

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<v Wilson Da Silva>change using only the transformative power of science and a heady dose of critical thinking.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Sounds simple, doesn't it? The goal was to address the challenge from a

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<v Wilson Da Silva>scientific perspective first and foremost, and then factor in the economic, social, and

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<v Wilson Da Silva>environmental implications before arriving at a series of practical and actionable recommendations.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The political dimension, while important, was actually left until last. So often it

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<v Wilson Da Silva>seems that it's the other way around. So we thought this was worth a try. We hope this

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<v Wilson Da Silva>approach might provide a path through the confusing and competing priorities, many of

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<v Wilson Da Silva>which can be

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<v Wilson Da Silva>coloured by political concerns. Thank God that's the end of the technical problems.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So where we thought science could contribute is in finding ways of reducing further warming.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Since energy supply makes the largest global contribution to greenhouse gas emissions,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>it was decided that our five-day meeting would focus on energy. In particular, the generation,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>distribution, and storage of electricity. Why electricity? Well, the world is becoming

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<v Wilson Da Silva>increasingly electrified. Electricity is the world's fastest growing form of end-use energy consumption, and

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<v Wilson Da Silva>forecaster grows steadily. Net electricity generation worldwide will grow at 2.3% per year to 2035, well ahead of the demand for other forms of energy.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>In most advanced economies, electricity makes up the largest proportion of energy use, as you can see from the graph.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And, yeah, the graph shows the United States and primary use by sector, and this is relatively common in most industrialized countries.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>In the decades ahead, the price of oil is expected to rise further, accelerating the current trend for the growing electrification of transport.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>That's cars, buses, and mass transit. Hence, by 2030, we think, and everyone's forecasting, that electric power will actually represent an even larger proportion of world energy consumption.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, the experiment that we created was the Equinox Summit, and it was staged by the Waterloo Global Science Initiative, or WGSI.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>A non-profit foundation created in 2009 so that science could be brought to bear on pernicious and difficult problems in global problems in society and civilization.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>WGSI is actually a partnership between Canada's Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics and the nearby University of Waterloo, both just outside of Toronto in Ontario.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The meeting was held over five days in June 2011 at the beautiful Perimeter Institute building.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>I'd been hired 18 months earlier to run the project.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>I was the lead of the team that would select the participants, establish the model for this bold undertaking, and then, to make sure I had skin in the game, moderate the discussions and help ensure we delivered results.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, yeah, on the line.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But first, a little bit about the unusual model we employed, which turned out to be actually essential to get the transformational results we attained.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We brought together scientists proposing novel, out-of-the-box ideas that were thought to have worked.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>They had real transformational potential.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>They were called the Quorum.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We then had advisors, senior people drawn from policy, industry, academia, science, business.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>A wealth of backgrounds, mostly older, seasoned and ready to punch logical holes into the ideas.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Among them was Mary Brook, who's here today.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The magical ingredient, however, was a collection of 19 amazingly bright, thoughtful, and very sharp young people, mostly aged in their 20s,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>who had been selected from around the world as emerging leaders in public policy, industry, and civil society.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>In total, we had 40 people from 17 countries who came together over five days to consider radical solutions to removing carbon from the electricity supply.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Technical problems continue.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>I'll just continue until we load this up.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Another unusual element of this model was that we had private closed-door meetings under Chatham House rules.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And I'll explain that in a minute.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And public plenaries.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>One of the other unusual...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We had public plenaries under Chatham House rules, which were broadcast nationally on TVO, a Canadian public broadcaster.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We had a group of invited journalists in the room from various outlets around the world who could observe the process at close range and report on what was discussed.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But not who said it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>That's Chatham House rules.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>All of us were aiming to present on the fifth day a selection of transformative technologies

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<v Wilson Da Silva>that we believe have the potential to change the world.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>That we might hold the potential to rapidly accelerate the transition of our electrical energy supply with zero dependence on fossil fuels.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's a massive, massive ambition.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But not as much of an ambition as getting PowerPoints to work across Mac versus PC platforms, it seems.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Steve Jobs, you're an incredible guy, but man.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So here's the challenge that we were facing when we began the meeting.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The world energy consumption is about 16.5 terawatts.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, that's one million million watts, one terawatt, or 10 watts followed by 12 zeros.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's a lot, right?

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So that's the world energy consumption.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>About 2.5 terawatts of electricity is from non-carbon sources, mostly hydro and nuclear.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>By 2050, it is forecast that we will need 30 terawatts.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, as you can see, we kind of need to double energy production.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And if we were to reach the targets that we need to try and stabilize emissions,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>we kind of need all of that to be from non-carbon sources.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, we know that's not true.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We know that China alone is building, over the next 30 years, thousands of coal-fired power stations.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>12 have been approved in Australia for the next 10 years.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, we know that's not the case.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And that coal-fired power stations, in particular,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>are the biggest source of energy.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>They're the most noxious when it comes to the contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Gas less so, about 50% less.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, we're not going to be able to meet this target and stabilize emissions.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, you can see the challenge that we as a society face,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and why it ain't going to be, why it wasn't simple,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and why it is a lot of these meetings haven't been successful.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But, hey, what did we do?

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Well, we did something else.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We rethought the problem.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We broke down, firstly, we concentrated on one form of energy, which is electricity,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and we had people from all over the world, different perspectives,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and we broke it down into generation, distribution, and storage.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Within generation, we looked at a mix of technologies

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<v Wilson Da Silva>that might be able to address the generation component.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And while it says they're solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>within that, there were several different types of technologies that were considered.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Within distribution, we looked at superconductors, at smart grids,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and in storage, at industrial and consumer solutions.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Then we looked at societal needs.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>What do we need?

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Well, we need to decarbonize civilization.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We need to address efficiency.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We need to address access to electricity.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You know, there are 2.5 billion people who don't have access to electricity.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And we need security, as in certainty of access, and affordability, obviously.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, we broke the cycle.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, we had this approach, and we broke it down into three ways of thinking about it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The rural remote needs, which can be quite different from urban needs.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Urban and industrial.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And electrified transportation, which can be deployable in both.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And what we came up with was a really, really different way of seeing electricity.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We created something that we call the low-carbon electricity ecosystem.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We rethought the whole process, the whole enchilada, in a different way, as actually an ecosystem.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We looked at base load.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Those of you who are familiar with energy would know, electricity in particular,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>know that you need base loads that when we all get up in the morning and flick on the lights,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>or put on the kettle, that it all kind of works, because there's a constant stream of electricity,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>of energy coming down the wire.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And base load is reliable.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Which is the challenge with wind, solar, and other renewables, because they are sporadic.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>They can be less reliable.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>They may not be there when we need it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's great when the sun coincides with air conditioning use,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>because when it's hottest is also when you need air conditioning,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but the wind doesn't necessarily do that.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, coal, gas, nuclear, oil, kind of reliable, stored energy, that's what you need.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>That's base load.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So we looked at three approaches to base load, which would cover the big heavy hitter,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>the reliable energy you need there all the time.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We looked at smart urbanization.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>What can we do to smarten up our cities to make them more efficient,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but also make them more livable for all of us?

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The electrification of transport is actually a subset of that,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>because it actually required a great deal of focus.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And rural electrification, we came up with a very interesting approach to,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>to creating microgrids.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, what does this all mean?

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Ah, there's a font issue.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Sorry about that.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, we came up with, on the base load side, we had three approaches.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>One was a short term, 2012 to 2022, and that's renewables coupled with large scale storage.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Again, addressing base load.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, here's the challenge with land use requirements for electric power generation.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>As you can see, biomass, hydroelectric, but you've got to flood large areas,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>to actually hold your backed up energy.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>That's, you know, releasing that water is what powers the turbines.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And then you've got wind.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And there's a lot of land use requirement, the land use demands for renewables.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And it's something to consider.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, you can't just cover the planet with wind turbines.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Even though they can often be benign, they can also sometimes be not so benign.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>There's also the, what I mentioned before,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>the stability of,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>when you need it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Sometimes the winds actually don't blow when you most need them.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Hydroelectric power too, has an issue.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>If you've, I don't know what has been the case in Adelaide,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but certainly in Melbourne and Sydney,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>we've had horrendous droughts that have actually eaten into the Warragama Dam,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and places like that, which we rely on a lot for our electricity.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, long places that, you know, you don't have predictability,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>even though it's a large, you know,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>large amount of water behind a dam,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>it may not actually be predictable over the longer term.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Wind also has quite wild swings,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and there's actually patterns over long periods of time,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>over many, many years.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You have, it seems to be cycles of wind intensity,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>so that's not quite as predictable.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Solar, incredibly spiky, as you can see there.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Lots of cloud can have a dramatic impact.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And what you see on the,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>where it says firm power, on your lower right,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>is what basically everyone else does.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>If you've got wind, which is incredibly spiky,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>as you can see in the blue graph,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>gas is turned on to fill the holes

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and provide the electricity that you need.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, what you could do is actually store it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And there are a number of technologies that exist,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but some really exciting new ones that we're arguing for mass deployment.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, what you've got there is, you've got your wind power,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>you've got your solar, that's two examples of renewables,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and you've got your central power plant.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>That feeds into a storage device, ESS, it's common called.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>I think that stands for energy storage scheme.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Anyway, it's used in the industry for, as a term.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, what you have is, irrespective of how you store it,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>whether it's batteries that we're familiar with,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but on a larger scale,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>or some kind of physical ESS,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and I'll show you what I mean by physical ESS,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and that provides a load to the customer.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, there's an example of a pumped hydro,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>where basically you pump water up,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and then you release it as you need it over time.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's kind of a different way of storage.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Another way is compressed air, ESS,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>where you pump air into a vault underground,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and then as you need it, the pressure drives turbines on the way back out.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You know, kind of, these are examples,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>there are examples around the world of this sort of thing.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's a way of storing energy in large quantities.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But what would really be the absolute killer

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<v Wilson Da Silva>would be to capture that energy and hold it on demand,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>not necessarily have to expend a great deal of energy

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<v Wilson Da Silva>actually storing that energy,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>which is what you do with compressed air,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and with the large scale water storage.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And there are actually a number of battery technologies,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>generally,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>known as flow batteries,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>that show real promise for large scale storage of electricity.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, when I say large scale,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>I mean a battery the size of this room.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And I don't mean a battery that has vats of liquid in it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's not quite a traditional battery that we're familiar with,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>the lead acid battery,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>which actually dates back to the US Civil War, the 1850s.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, it's very old technology,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and we've done remarkably well extending the life of it,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and making it more and more efficient,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but ultimately,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>we're kind of stuck in the 1860s.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And what these batteries are, these flow batteries,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>they use some different mixes for different types,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but they can store large quantities of electricity

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<v Wilson Da Silva>produced at a power station

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and then bled out over the rest of the day.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The attraction here would be, obviously,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>you can see that if the sun is shining

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and there isn't as much demand for that power,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>you can capture it and then release it at night.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Or when the wind's not blowing,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>you can actually...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, you actually...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The spikes that you get in electricity,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>you can actually smooth them out a little bit.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And one of the technologies that's really exciting

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<v Wilson Da Silva>is actually from Australia.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's vanadium redox batteries,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>developed at the University of New South Wales.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>There are actually demonstration projects around the world,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>installed, and they're doing well.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's still early days of technology.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>What we need is to de-risk the technology

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and make it large scale.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And that's what...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And the cool thing about this

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<v Wilson Da Silva>is you can use it like petrol

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<v Wilson Da Silva>because the flow battery, the liquid, is charged

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and then you pump the charged liquid into a vessel,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>which is a storage tank, fuel tank, and off you go.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, there's some real promises here,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but the costs are prohibitive at the moment.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And what we've argued for

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<v Wilson Da Silva>is a large-scale test

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<v Wilson Da Silva>of these technologies.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Basically, install in wind and solar farms around the world

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<v Wilson Da Silva>large examples of flow batteries,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>vanadium redox being amongst them,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>to de-risk the technology,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>bring down the costs,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and basically allow renewables

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<v Wilson Da Silva>to suddenly be a reliable part of the chain

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<v Wilson Da Silva>for energy production.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, that's what we're proposing there.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>In the medium term,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Horizon, we're looking...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>2014 to 2025, we're looking at geothermal.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We're looking at...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>There are actually a number of programs

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<v Wilson Da Silva>for geothermal around the world,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>but we're looking to expand, upscale,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and de-risk the technology.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Geothermal is an extraordinary large resource

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<v Wilson Da Silva>capable of providing significant proportion

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<v Wilson Da Silva>of global energy demand.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It comes from the heat of our planet.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Our planet has been quite hot deep down below.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>In the core.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And has been since it was created

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<v Wilson Da Silva>four billion years ago.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Three and a half billion years ago.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So, the challenge is trying to get at those hot spots.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And the way that...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You kind of need to drill about three to six kilometres.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And the way that people have been using geothermal

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<v Wilson Da Silva>up until now is kind of finding where the cracks are

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and, you know, trying to run power plants that way.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The problem is sometimes the cracks are in out-of-the-way places,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>which aren't very convenient for energy use.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But there are a number of projects.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>There's actually a plant going live in Germany,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>scheduled for January 2010.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>A 10 megawatt plant.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Which, you know, is drilling down

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<v Wilson Da Silva>to try and find fracture areas in the crust

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<v Wilson Da Silva>where the heat is actually coming up through the cracks.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And they can actually, you know, run a proper power plant.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The attraction here is that it's free energy.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's not even...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You don't have to worry about clouds.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The Earth is always hot.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And has been for billions of years.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So it's relatively reliable.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And we believe that it's going to be somewhat hot

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<v Wilson Da Silva>for quite a few billion years to go.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The challenge is that in geothermal,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>the...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It's not considered...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Where it's considered a business in the sense of a mining business,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>you're not extracting something.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You're kind of extracting heat.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Whereas oil, you're digging out...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You're drilling down and taking out oil.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You take something physical.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>This...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>What you're actually doing is trying to find a hot spot.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So you might need to drill 30 or 40 holes.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And each hole might cost a million dollars

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<v Wilson Da Silva>because these drill bits are expensive.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And then you find the bit in the...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Say if there's a sandstone layer.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You find where the crack is that you need to reach.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And once you've found that,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>all the other holes can be used to send water down, cold water.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And then steam comes out the other end.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And you've got a power plant.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So theoretically, if we can get the mining technology improved,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>if we can get drill bits better,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>bring down the cost and de-risk it,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>companies should be able to invest in this and think,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>wow, you can do energy anywhere.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>The...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So there you are.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>There's currently 10 gigawatts.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And the potential is for 10% of base load power by 2030.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>If there was a program to really go down the geothermal path,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>we could actually cut a lot of carbon emissions

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and deliver a lot of free energy.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Yeah, once you...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>I mean, the investment is largely the drilling.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Once you've done the drilling, there ain't that much to it, really.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So we propose...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We propose 10 large-scale demonstration projects around the world,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>a multi-government approach.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Australia should be part of that.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It has a lot of expertise in this, particularly in South Australia.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And we have a lot of people who have...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>understand this area, and we can contribute,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>along with Canada is also very good at this, the Russians.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>There's...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So there's...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But what we need is to prove that this is doable on a large scale,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>not just 10 megawatts.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But 10 gigawatt single capacity or 20 gigawatt plant.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>You know, why...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>It should theoretically be possible.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>But, you know, it won't happen unless people bite into it.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>OK.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>So there you are.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>10 to 20 projects over three years, a billion-dollar fund.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>And we actually proposed...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Perimeter Institute was delighted, I think.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>We proposed that actually they host a meeting of geothermal experts

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<v Wilson Da Silva>from around the world to actually talk about creating this...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>this international $1 billion fund to advance geothermal research.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>OK.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, nuclear.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>This is the long term.

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, you might say, well, if you've got geothermal

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and you've got...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>reliable renewables, why do you need nuclear?

393
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<v Wilson Da Silva>Because if we...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>If everyone lived like Australians do today,

395
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<v Wilson Da Silva>we would need 10 times the amount of power generated.

396
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<v Wilson Da Silva>And it's not unreasonable to expect that,

397
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<v Wilson Da Silva>as the world industrialises,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>that people will demand the kind of ease of use

399
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<v Wilson Da Silva>and access to power that we have today.

400
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<v Wilson Da Silva>And that's going to be a serious challenge.

401
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<v Wilson Da Silva>Even with deploying coal-fired power plants,

402
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<v Wilson Da Silva>even with deploying all of the renewables,

403
00:23:21.480 --> 00:23:24.040
<v Wilson Da Silva>we're still not going to bridge that gap that's going to be there,

404
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<v Wilson Da Silva>particularly...

405
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<v Wilson Da Silva>I think it's 2040 to 2070.

406
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<v Wilson Da Silva>There's a huge spike in demand.

407
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<v Wilson Da Silva>And the only way you can deliver...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Well, we argue, and we did a lot of discussion,

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<v Wilson Da Silva>and I think Barry certainly agreed with us,

410
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<v Wilson Da Silva>the only way you could deliver this large...

411
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<v Wilson Da Silva>satisfy this large demand...

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<v Wilson Da Silva>Put aside the issue of efficiency.

413
00:23:43.020 --> 00:23:47.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>Even if you went hell for leather on efficiency,

414
00:23:47.140 --> 00:23:49.300
<v Wilson Da Silva>you're not going to cover this massive spike.

415
00:23:49.500 --> 00:23:51.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>You're not going to compensate for this massive spike.

416
00:23:51.760 --> 00:23:52.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>So how do you do it? You do it with nuclear.

417
00:23:53.140 --> 00:23:55.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>But the team, which included a lot of young people,

418
00:23:55.880 --> 00:23:57.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>were not really sold on nuclear,

419
00:23:58.020 --> 00:23:59.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>and they were really, really antagonistic to nuclear.

420
00:24:01.720 --> 00:24:05.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>But we had some really interesting examples,

421
00:24:05.360 --> 00:24:06.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>and Barry contributed a lot to this.

422
00:24:06.640 --> 00:24:09.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>We looked at closed fuel cycles,

423
00:24:10.420 --> 00:24:13.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>particularly a Generation 4 reactor style.

424
00:24:14.020 --> 00:24:15.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>I think it's called...

425
00:24:16.360 --> 00:24:17.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>Integral Fast Reactor, ISF.

426
00:24:17.880 --> 00:24:21.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>Integral Fast Reactor, which basically produces no waste.

427
00:24:21.300 --> 00:24:22.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>You put a chunk of...

428
00:24:22.860 --> 00:24:25.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's a uranium-plutonium mix, I think,

429
00:24:25.040 --> 00:24:26.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>and you put a chunk into it,

430
00:24:26.720 --> 00:24:29.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>and it just keeps recycling the fuel.

431
00:24:30.740 --> 00:24:35.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>Closing the fuel cycle has been a kind of...

432
00:24:35.560 --> 00:24:36.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's a kind of...

433
00:24:36.620 --> 00:24:40.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>A utopia that a lot of people have been aiming for for a long time.

434
00:24:41.200 --> 00:24:41.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>When...

435
00:24:42.360 --> 00:24:45.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>Basically how new reactors work now is they're kind of...

436
00:24:45.460 --> 00:24:47.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>There's the core of uranium or plutonium,

437
00:24:47.260 --> 00:24:49.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>and they're a nuclear bomb trying to go off.

438
00:24:50.520 --> 00:24:51.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>And you...

439
00:24:51.400 --> 00:24:53.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>Which is why it's a bit of a challenge.

440
00:24:53.280 --> 00:24:56.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>And then you try and keep them cool at 1.0 criticality,

441
00:24:56.380 --> 00:24:58.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>so they're constantly hot enough, really super hot,

442
00:24:58.500 --> 00:24:59.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>to drive your turbines,

443
00:24:59.780 --> 00:25:02.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>but they're not so hot that you have a runaway nuclear reaction.

444
00:25:03.340 --> 00:25:06.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>So the relationship is testy, yeah, with the current design.

445
00:25:07.080 --> 00:25:08.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>Some really interesting designs...

446
00:25:08.960 --> 00:25:11.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it produces piles of waste,

447
00:25:11.540 --> 00:25:12.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>although it has to be said,

448
00:25:12.480 --> 00:25:14.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>for every, you know, for every bit of...

449
00:25:14.520 --> 00:25:17.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>For every gram of electricity...

450
00:25:18.140 --> 00:25:19.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>Every gram of uranium,

451
00:25:19.340 --> 00:25:20.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>you generate massive amounts of electricity,

452
00:25:20.800 --> 00:25:22.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>and certainly you don't produce any of the emissions

453
00:25:22.840 --> 00:25:24.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>that coal does into the atmosphere,

454
00:25:25.040 --> 00:25:27.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>which also go into our lungs

455
00:25:27.660 --> 00:25:30.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>and get stuck in plaques in our bloodstream

456
00:25:30.800 --> 00:25:33.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>and lead to, at least in the US, 26,000 deaths a year

457
00:25:33.960 --> 00:25:35.340
<v Wilson Da Silva>that would otherwise not have happened.

458
00:25:35.340 --> 00:25:36.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>So...

459
00:25:36.980 --> 00:25:39.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>So closing the fuel cycle was really attractive,

460
00:25:39.560 --> 00:25:40.340
<v Wilson Da Silva>and that's...

461
00:25:41.720 --> 00:25:44.720
<v Wilson Da Silva>We're talking about there again another demonstration plan,

462
00:25:44.760 --> 00:25:47.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>in this case, for one super integral fast reactor

463
00:25:47.280 --> 00:25:50.180
<v Wilson Da Silva>to prove the concept, take it to really the nth degree,

464
00:25:50.440 --> 00:25:55.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>and then deploy integral fast reactors around the world

465
00:25:55.580 --> 00:25:58.060
<v Wilson Da Silva>so that no new nuclear reactors are built

466
00:25:58.060 --> 00:25:59.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>unless they're integral fast reactors,

467
00:25:59.740 --> 00:26:01.340
<v Wilson Da Silva>having better data technology and made it work.

468
00:26:01.480 --> 00:26:04.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>But even better, even better...

469
00:26:04.780 --> 00:26:06.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>And this was very, very exciting.

470
00:26:07.780 --> 00:26:08.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>People were saying,

471
00:26:08.700 --> 00:26:10.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>well, what happens with all the waste we've created so far?

472
00:26:11.540 --> 00:26:13.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>The 20-year-olds would make sure that we wouldn't forget

473
00:26:13.920 --> 00:26:16.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>the legacy that would be left for them to take care of,

474
00:26:16.880 --> 00:26:19.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>and they were really sold on thorium,

475
00:26:19.460 --> 00:26:21.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>accelerator-driven thorium reactors,

476
00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:25.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>which basically, instead of having a bomb at the core

477
00:26:25.480 --> 00:26:26.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>trying to blow up, you have a...

478
00:26:27.220 --> 00:26:28.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>You have thorium in the core,

479
00:26:28.980 --> 00:26:31.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>and it never quite gets to criticality,

480
00:26:31.020 --> 00:26:32.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>so you just throw in old nuclear waste

481
00:26:32.640 --> 00:26:34.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>and fire an accelerator,

482
00:26:34.140 --> 00:26:36.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>and it cooks it all up, so it burns the waste.

483
00:26:36.640 --> 00:26:39.260
<v Wilson Da Silva>And I think Yassin Khandi was saying

484
00:26:39.260 --> 00:26:42.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>we had enough nuclear waste to power the Earth for 5,000 years.

485
00:26:42.700 --> 00:26:43.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>It was pretty cool.

486
00:26:44.240 --> 00:26:47.260
<v Wilson Da Silva>So you could actually use waste as a process.

487
00:26:47.400 --> 00:26:48.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>So that gets around base load.

488
00:26:48.860 --> 00:26:50.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>And then we went into, look...

489
00:26:50.640 --> 00:26:53.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>This is the kind of stuff making cities energy smart

490
00:26:53.680 --> 00:26:54.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>can be done tomorrow.

491
00:26:54.880 --> 00:26:58.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>We know that we're going to have 6 billion people on the planet by 2025.

492
00:26:59.380 --> 00:27:02.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>We know that buildings emit 7.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent

493
00:27:02.660 --> 00:27:04.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>to about 1.5 billion people.

494
00:27:04.140 --> 00:27:04.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>We know that we're going to have

495
00:27:06.440 --> 00:27:09.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>We need to make our infrastructure intelligent

496
00:27:10.580 --> 00:27:14.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>so that none of that energy is wasted.

497
00:27:15.920 --> 00:27:17.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>And there are a whole bunch of proposals

498
00:27:17.760 --> 00:27:18.720
<v Wilson Da Silva>around building design,

499
00:27:18.900 --> 00:27:22.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>around the building of how it is that we...

500
00:27:23.020 --> 00:27:24.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>Mobility, how it is that we get around.

501
00:27:25.780 --> 00:27:28.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>Urban transportation was fantastic.

502
00:27:28.820 --> 00:27:30.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>A lot of interesting ideas came out of there,

503
00:27:30.680 --> 00:27:31.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>and a lot of implemented...

504
00:27:31.620 --> 00:27:32.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's stuff that we can implement tomorrow.

505
00:27:32.980 --> 00:27:33.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's superb.

506
00:27:33.880 --> 00:27:34.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>They again looked at it.

507
00:27:34.980 --> 00:27:36.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>3 billion people in 2005.

508
00:27:38.320 --> 00:27:42.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>In the developing world, it's going to go to 6 billion.

509
00:27:42.540 --> 00:27:45.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>We're going to have an additional 3 billion people in the developing world.

510
00:27:45.800 --> 00:27:46.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>How do we do it?

511
00:27:46.640 --> 00:27:50.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>Do we want this sort of world of Jakarta and Shanghai

512
00:27:50.780 --> 00:27:51.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>with smoggy cities?

513
00:27:52.040 --> 00:27:52.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>No, we don't.

514
00:27:53.240 --> 00:27:54.540
<v Wilson Da Silva>We have an opportunity here

515
00:27:54.540 --> 00:27:57.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>where these cities are rapidly industrializing.

516
00:27:57.600 --> 00:28:00.420
<v Wilson Da Silva>Why don't, instead of them industrializing the way we did,

517
00:28:00.500 --> 00:28:01.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>where we did it kind of wrong,

518
00:28:01.600 --> 00:28:01.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>really,

519
00:28:02.080 --> 00:28:03.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>but we didn't know any better,

520
00:28:03.180 --> 00:28:05.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>why not industrialize it in such a way that's quite smart?

521
00:28:06.740 --> 00:28:07.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>So using...

522
00:28:07.580 --> 00:28:10.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>Having an integrated transportation system

523
00:28:10.760 --> 00:28:13.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>which would allow you to have the option

524
00:28:13.460 --> 00:28:14.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>if you're going from one place to another,

525
00:28:15.040 --> 00:28:16.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>you actually have mass transit,

526
00:28:16.540 --> 00:28:18.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>or you have a subscription car that you sign up to,

527
00:28:18.840 --> 00:28:20.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>or you might have personal vehicles,

528
00:28:20.360 --> 00:28:21.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>but there's actually a range of stuff.

529
00:28:21.840 --> 00:28:24.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it allows you to go from point A to point B,

530
00:28:24.780 --> 00:28:25.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>wherever point B is,

531
00:28:26.200 --> 00:28:27.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>using a number of solutions.

532
00:28:28.080 --> 00:28:29.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>The whole point is to get...

533
00:28:29.760 --> 00:28:30.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>To provide mobility,

534
00:28:30.860 --> 00:28:32.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>because what you...

535
00:28:32.200 --> 00:28:32.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>Some...

536
00:28:32.620 --> 00:28:34.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>You know, if you push down...

537
00:28:34.840 --> 00:28:35.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>If you boil it down to it,

538
00:28:35.880 --> 00:28:38.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>you don't really need a car necessarily.

539
00:28:38.480 --> 00:28:40.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>What you need is what the car provides,

540
00:28:40.760 --> 00:28:41.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>which is transport.

541
00:28:41.980 --> 00:28:43.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>So let's rethink that idea.

542
00:28:44.140 --> 00:28:46.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>And then they looked at some other ways of doing that.

543
00:28:46.560 --> 00:28:48.040
<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, rural electrification, this was...

544
00:28:49.180 --> 00:28:50.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>This was the most exciting development

545
00:28:51.380 --> 00:28:52.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>because it was totally unexpected.

546
00:28:53.580 --> 00:28:55.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>We really felt a little bit guilty

547
00:28:55.700 --> 00:28:56.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>that we were dealing with solutions

548
00:28:58.560 --> 00:29:00.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>that would address the problems

549
00:29:00.840 --> 00:29:01.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>of people who have electricity,

550
00:29:01.960 --> 00:29:03.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>but we were kind of leaving out the people

551
00:29:03.680 --> 00:29:04.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>who don't have electricity.

552
00:29:05.040 --> 00:29:06.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>And one of the technologies proposed,

553
00:29:06.620 --> 00:29:07.420
<v Wilson Da Silva>actually a couple of them,

554
00:29:08.380 --> 00:29:09.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>so there's 2.5 billion people there

555
00:29:09.960 --> 00:29:11.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>who don't have electricity.

556
00:29:12.300 --> 00:29:14.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>One of the technologies turned out to be...

557
00:29:14.280 --> 00:29:18.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>It was an organic, plasticky, photovoltaic cell.

558
00:29:19.320 --> 00:29:20.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>Wasn't all that attractive

559
00:29:20.740 --> 00:29:23.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>because the efficiency was very low, 8%.

560
00:29:24.300 --> 00:29:25.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>But guess what?

561
00:29:26.860 --> 00:29:28.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>And this is where it helped having people

562
00:29:28.700 --> 00:29:30.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>from different parts of the world.

563
00:29:30.020 --> 00:29:33.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>While it wouldn't be attractive to you in Australia

564
00:29:33.460 --> 00:29:37.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>or to Canadians in a developed metropolitan environment,

565
00:29:37.780 --> 00:29:39.540
<v Wilson Da Silva>it is incredibly attractive to someone

566
00:29:39.540 --> 00:29:41.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>who has to carry kerosene on their back

567
00:29:41.900 --> 00:29:46.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>for 10 kilometres to power lights at their house.

568
00:29:47.140 --> 00:29:49.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>So we got into the...

569
00:29:49.680 --> 00:29:51.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>We looked at the cycle.

570
00:29:51.100 --> 00:29:53.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>This is the transitional graph

571
00:29:53.780 --> 00:29:56.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>that made us realise that we were seeing it

572
00:29:56.620 --> 00:29:57.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>from the first world

573
00:29:57.360 --> 00:29:58.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>and we didn't realise what the problem was.

574
00:29:59.660 --> 00:30:00.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>You have...

575
00:30:00.680 --> 00:30:01.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>As you get urban scale,

576
00:30:01.800 --> 00:30:03.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>you demand low-cost electricity.

577
00:30:03.680 --> 00:30:05.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>But at the other end,

578
00:30:05.800 --> 00:30:08.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>where you're in a substance...

579
00:30:08.820 --> 00:30:11.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>Where you have difficulty making ends meet

580
00:30:11.640 --> 00:30:12.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>and you're in a rural setting,

581
00:30:13.480 --> 00:30:14.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>you're willing to pay...

582
00:30:14.520 --> 00:30:17.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>Your willingness to pay for electricity is much higher.

583
00:30:17.860 --> 00:30:20.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>You already pay ridiculous amounts to access that.

584
00:30:20.880 --> 00:30:22.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>So why not provide this solution,

585
00:30:22.840 --> 00:30:24.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>which you might say is relatively expensive

586
00:30:24.960 --> 00:30:28.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>but actually, you know, delivers all your needs

587
00:30:28.160 --> 00:30:28.880
<v Wilson Da Silva>at lower cost?

588
00:30:28.980 --> 00:30:32.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>So we looked at some examples.

589
00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:34.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's actually a market opportunity to deliver this.

590
00:30:35.080 --> 00:30:38.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>This technology is kind of two, three years away from deployment.

591
00:30:39.400 --> 00:30:39.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's...

592
00:30:39.840 --> 00:30:41.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>I wonder if we've got an example of it.

593
00:30:42.000 --> 00:30:43.300
<v Wilson Da Silva>I think we did.

594
00:30:43.400 --> 00:30:44.060
<v Wilson Da Silva>Let me just have a look.

595
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:45.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>Oh, yes, there it is.

596
00:30:45.540 --> 00:30:47.440
<v Wilson Da Silva>See the solar panels on the thatched roof?

597
00:30:48.220 --> 00:30:49.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>They're flexible.

598
00:30:49.360 --> 00:30:50.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>They're just flexible like mats.

599
00:30:50.980 --> 00:30:52.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>You can do almost anything to them.

600
00:30:52.640 --> 00:30:55.040
<v Wilson Da Silva>And the cool thing is you can also reverse them

601
00:30:55.040 --> 00:30:56.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>so that they generate light at night.

602
00:30:57.320 --> 00:30:58.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>So you could...

603
00:30:58.100 --> 00:31:01.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>Now, they're not going to be good for every type of...

604
00:31:01.600 --> 00:31:03.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>The efficiency isn't there for every type of solution.

605
00:31:04.060 --> 00:31:05.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>You can do lighting communication,

606
00:31:05.400 --> 00:31:06.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>like charging your mobile phone.

607
00:31:07.020 --> 00:31:08.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>You can do refrigeration,

608
00:31:08.360 --> 00:31:10.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>some small-scale refrigeration and TV,

609
00:31:10.860 --> 00:31:12.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>but you can't do cooking and water heating.

610
00:31:13.080 --> 00:31:14.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>That would be larger proposals.

611
00:31:15.080 --> 00:31:15.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>We looked at solar, hydrogen.

612
00:31:16.020 --> 00:31:16.540
<v Wilson Da Silva>I won't go into detail,

613
00:31:16.640 --> 00:31:17.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>but we looked at other solutions.

614
00:31:18.180 --> 00:31:21.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>What we basically looked at was creating a microgrid,

615
00:31:22.080 --> 00:31:25.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>a grid that you could have a local community

616
00:31:25.860 --> 00:31:28.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>where you can draw on the electricity flow

617
00:31:28.100 --> 00:31:30.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>and you can actually do things like

618
00:31:30.880 --> 00:31:32.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>You can do things like heating and cooling,

619
00:31:33.580 --> 00:31:35.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>but the running of the lights

620
00:31:35.000 --> 00:31:38.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>and charging your mobile phone doesn't have to rely on that.

621
00:31:38.400 --> 00:31:41.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>OK, just rush through now, because...

622
00:31:41.200 --> 00:31:42.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>And, yes, we think that by 2030,

623
00:31:42.660 --> 00:31:44.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>you could deliver 500 million households,

624
00:31:44.640 --> 00:31:47.180
<v Wilson Da Silva>and how you do it is actually partnering with people

625
00:31:47.180 --> 00:31:49.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>who have a need for this sort of thing,

626
00:31:49.180 --> 00:31:52.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>like UNHCR, when they go into a crisis zone.

627
00:31:52.700 --> 00:31:54.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>They actually truck in diesel generators,

628
00:31:54.440 --> 00:31:56.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>and so do the army, to deliver electricity.

629
00:31:56.760 --> 00:32:00.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>If they had large-scale deployment of this technology,

630
00:32:02.140 --> 00:32:06.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>they would de-risk it and bring down the costs

631
00:32:06.160 --> 00:32:08.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>and allow us to then deploy it,

632
00:32:08.380 --> 00:32:10.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>or the developers to deploy it,

633
00:32:10.400 --> 00:32:12.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>to the 500 million households who need it.

634
00:32:13.160 --> 00:32:13.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>So there you go.

635
00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:15.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>There's the...

636
00:32:15.120 --> 00:32:16.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>I just rushed through basically

637
00:32:16.920 --> 00:32:19.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>the low-carbon electricity ecosystem

638
00:32:19.120 --> 00:32:20.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>that we created, we're proposing,

639
00:32:22.480 --> 00:32:25.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>and the teams who are involved in this,

640
00:32:25.540 --> 00:32:26.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>so there are 40 people,

641
00:32:26.360 --> 00:32:32.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>are writing up those results into a large report, a book,

642
00:32:33.060 --> 00:32:34.880
<v Wilson Da Silva>which will come out in January this year,

643
00:32:35.700 --> 00:32:36.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>and it will be...

644
00:32:37.720 --> 00:32:38.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>It will be...

645
00:32:40.000 --> 00:32:43.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>We're going to take it to the World Economic Forum in Davos

646
00:32:43.280 --> 00:32:45.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>and the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi,

647
00:32:45.960 --> 00:32:47.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>and then eventually to the UN Conference

648
00:32:47.760 --> 00:32:49.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>on Sustainable Development in Rio in May 22.

649
00:32:49.920 --> 00:32:51.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's May 2012.

650
00:32:51.440 --> 00:32:51.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's the...

651
00:32:52.400 --> 00:32:54.300
<v Wilson Da Silva>If you remember the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,

652
00:32:54.540 --> 00:32:56.060
<v Wilson Da Silva>this is Rio Plus 20, they're calling it.

653
00:32:56.920 --> 00:33:00.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>We think this presents a plan that would allow,

654
00:33:01.040 --> 00:33:03.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>in the numbers that the people who are involved in this,

655
00:33:03.480 --> 00:33:06.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>much more experienced than I am and understand this field,

656
00:33:07.020 --> 00:33:10.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>would allow us to decarbonise electricity production

657
00:33:12.180 --> 00:33:13.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>globally this century.

658
00:33:14.600 --> 00:33:16.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>That's the exciting thing about it.

659
00:33:17.760 --> 00:33:18.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>This isn't...

660
00:33:18.700 --> 00:33:22.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>This isn't dreamland blue sky stuff.

661
00:33:22.140 --> 00:33:22.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>This is actually logical.

662
00:33:23.240 --> 00:33:25.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>As you can see from the last example,

663
00:33:25.360 --> 00:33:25.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>there were clear,

664
00:33:25.940 --> 00:33:27.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>clear market opportunities there

665
00:33:28.800 --> 00:33:30.540
<v Wilson Da Silva>that certainly the entrepreneurs

666
00:33:30.540 --> 00:33:32.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>and the industry people who were involved,

667
00:33:32.680 --> 00:33:37.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>which included the former Chief Technology Officer of Rio Tinto,

668
00:33:37.940 --> 00:33:39.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>Robin Batterham,

669
00:33:39.940 --> 00:33:40.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>they were really excited by it.

670
00:33:41.040 --> 00:33:43.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>They could see opportunity and...

671
00:33:45.000 --> 00:33:46.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it's interesting, you know,

672
00:33:46.720 --> 00:33:48.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>a lot of these discussions about energy

673
00:33:49.540 --> 00:33:52.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>and climate change and reducing our emissions

674
00:33:52.120 --> 00:33:53.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>are always around targets.

675
00:33:53.680 --> 00:33:54.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>Here are the targets,

676
00:33:54.380 --> 00:33:56.440
<v Wilson Da Silva>and everyone argues about how to reach those targets.

677
00:33:56.580 --> 00:33:58.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>We took a completely different path.

678
00:33:58.780 --> 00:33:59.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>We said,

679
00:33:59.700 --> 00:34:02.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>let's look at interesting technological pathways

680
00:34:02.500 --> 00:34:04.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>that allow carbon.

681
00:34:04.900 --> 00:34:07.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>And let's explore how far you can take them

682
00:34:07.640 --> 00:34:09.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>in an integrated approach,

683
00:34:09.140 --> 00:34:10.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>not a three-year political cycle approach,

684
00:34:11.000 --> 00:34:12.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>not a five-year,

685
00:34:13.100 --> 00:34:17.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>but, you know, thinking 20, 30, 40 years into the future.

686
00:34:17.480 --> 00:34:18.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>And guess what?

687
00:34:18.340 --> 00:34:19.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's totally doable.

688
00:34:19.520 --> 00:34:22.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>You just have to want to do it.

689
00:34:22.680 --> 00:34:23.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>Thank you very much.

690
00:34:27.660 --> 00:34:28.640
<v Chair>Thanks a lot, Wilson.

691
00:34:29.160 --> 00:34:33.560
<v Chair>We should also mention on the Equinox website, wgsi.org,

692
00:34:33.660 --> 00:34:36.640
<v Chair>there's an example of...

693
00:34:36.640 --> 00:34:38.900
<v Chair>Well, there's a discussion of what we did in more detail,

694
00:34:38.940 --> 00:34:42.020
<v Chair>which is like a primer of the summit,

695
00:34:43.640 --> 00:34:46.540
<v Chair>which is something to have a look at

696
00:34:46.540 --> 00:34:48.140
<v Chair>before the main book comes out,

697
00:34:48.200 --> 00:34:50.020
<v Chair>because it does describe in overview

698
00:34:50.020 --> 00:34:52.120
<v Chair>a lot of the technologies and pathways

699
00:34:52.120 --> 00:34:53.540
<v Chair>that Wilson discussed today.

700
00:34:55.260 --> 00:34:58.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's up on the screen, wgsi.org.

701
00:34:59.040 --> 00:35:01.040
<v Chair>And it's like a 10-page document, is that right?

702
00:35:01.200 --> 00:35:02.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>Yeah, it's called the Equinox Communique.

703
00:35:02.980 --> 00:35:05.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>But there's also videos you can watch of the public sessions.

704
00:35:05.720 --> 00:35:07.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>Remember I said there were public sessions?

705
00:35:09.040 --> 00:35:11.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>At the opening of each day, there were kind of public sessions.

706
00:35:11.480 --> 00:35:12.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>You can watch videos of the whole thing.

707
00:35:13.580 --> 00:35:15.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>You can experience it if you were there.

708
00:35:15.620 --> 00:35:17.680
<v Chair>And there was a TV series in Ontario

709
00:35:17.680 --> 00:35:19.920
<v Chair>which covered each night, the summit.

710
00:35:20.480 --> 00:35:22.220
<v Chair>It was like Q&A on ABC,

711
00:35:22.480 --> 00:35:23.520
<v Chair>but done with information.

712
00:35:23.520 --> 00:35:24.380
<v Chair>And there were also some intelligent panellists.

713
00:35:24.500 --> 00:35:27.440
<v Chair>And so it was a really interesting thing to listen to each night.

714
00:35:27.600 --> 00:35:28.720
<v Wilson Da Silva>Only when you were on, Barry.

715
00:35:30.320 --> 00:35:31.960
<v Chair>All right, let's take the opportunity

716
00:35:31.960 --> 00:35:33.240
<v Chair>of the time we have remaining,

717
00:35:33.360 --> 00:35:34.420
<v Chair>which is just over 10 minutes,

718
00:35:34.500 --> 00:35:36.100
<v Chair>to get some questions from you guys,

719
00:35:36.220 --> 00:35:39.440
<v Chair>either about the technological details or the overview plans.

720
00:35:39.660 --> 00:35:40.680
<v Chair>We'll start off at the front.

721
00:35:42.260 --> 00:35:42.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>Thanks very much.

722
00:35:43.080 --> 00:35:44.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>Just a quick question about the Equinox Summit.

723
00:35:44.920 --> 00:35:48.280
<v Audience>What you've talked about can be summarised as supply side,

724
00:35:48.720 --> 00:35:50.860
<v Audience>so the supply of the energy market.

725
00:35:51.040 --> 00:35:53.400
<v Audience>Was there any consideration given to demand side,

726
00:35:53.520 --> 00:35:54.840
<v Audience>so reducing demand,

727
00:35:55.100 --> 00:35:57.880
<v Audience>given that we've had a PM taskforce in Australia say

728
00:35:57.880 --> 00:36:00.920
<v Audience>that we can reduce energy use by about 30%

729
00:36:00.920 --> 00:36:04.060
<v Audience>with minimal impact on quality of life or economy?

730
00:36:04.460 --> 00:36:04.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>Totally agree.

731
00:36:05.160 --> 00:36:07.420
<v Wilson Da Silva>We would not have gone through it

732
00:36:07.420 --> 00:36:10.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>and some of the industry experts

733
00:36:10.120 --> 00:36:13.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>and certainly the forum, the young people,

734
00:36:13.820 --> 00:36:15.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>would not have let us get away with it.

735
00:36:15.700 --> 00:36:18.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>I'm trying to summarise five days' worth of discussions.

736
00:36:18.360 --> 00:36:20.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>But actually that making cities energy smart

737
00:36:21.520 --> 00:36:22.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>is actually all about that.

738
00:36:22.860 --> 00:36:23.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's about efficiency

739
00:36:24.360 --> 00:36:26.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>and there were substantial gains to be made.

740
00:36:26.880 --> 00:36:28.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>I mean, buildings, for example,

741
00:36:28.200 --> 00:36:30.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>are stunning, the amount of gains you can make on buildings,

742
00:36:30.580 --> 00:36:31.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>just by building them smarter.

743
00:36:32.280 --> 00:36:34.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>Even if you didn't retrofit buildings,

744
00:36:34.860 --> 00:36:36.340
<v Wilson Da Silva>if you just knew buildings,

745
00:36:36.560 --> 00:36:38.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>I mean, it makes a massive contribution.

746
00:36:38.380 --> 00:36:40.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>So, yeah, it will cover that.

747
00:36:40.220 --> 00:36:43.500
<v Audience>Did the group consider community-owned energy companies,

748
00:36:43.640 --> 00:36:45.980
<v Audience>i.e. if a block, a suburb got together,

749
00:36:46.000 --> 00:36:47.780
<v Audience>stuck a whole lot of solar panels in,

750
00:36:47.920 --> 00:36:49.660
<v Audience>a couple of wind turbines and a battery,

751
00:36:50.080 --> 00:36:51.940
<v Audience>why wouldn't they then run their own company?

752
00:36:51.940 --> 00:36:53.880
<v Wilson Da Silva>I don't think we looked at that,

753
00:36:53.920 --> 00:36:56.040
<v Wilson Da Silva>but we did look at community initiatives

754
00:36:56.040 --> 00:36:57.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>for the developing world.

755
00:36:57.920 --> 00:37:00.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>It was considered that what was needed

756
00:37:00.700 --> 00:37:03.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>was to come up with a microgrid approach,

757
00:37:04.440 --> 00:37:06.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>whether it involves solar hydrogen

758
00:37:06.100 --> 00:37:07.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>for large-scale energy operation,

759
00:37:08.220 --> 00:37:11.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>but certainly it begins with the organic PV,

760
00:37:11.620 --> 00:37:12.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>if you like, stage one.

761
00:37:12.460 --> 00:37:18.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>Stage two is the solar hydrogen storage battery,

762
00:37:18.940 --> 00:37:21.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>which then becomes a local grid.

763
00:37:21.460 --> 00:37:22.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>That might be owned by a community,

764
00:37:22.960 --> 00:37:25.880
<v Wilson Da Silva>but what it was felt was we need to bring the technology,

765
00:37:26.080 --> 00:37:28.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>make the technology work in a microgrid situation,

766
00:37:28.920 --> 00:37:30.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>bring the cost down dramatically,

767
00:37:30.560 --> 00:37:33.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>and then you have something that you can pick up

768
00:37:33.460 --> 00:37:34.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>and deploy anywhere around the world.

769
00:37:35.040 --> 00:37:38.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it doesn't just have to apply to the developing world,

770
00:37:38.320 --> 00:37:40.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>as the biggest application would be in the developing world,

771
00:37:40.960 --> 00:37:43.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>but actually would apply anywhere that's remote or regional.

772
00:37:44.520 --> 00:37:46.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>And if you wanted to do it in the city, yeah, sure, fine.

773
00:37:48.240 --> 00:37:50.800
<v Audience>With the introduction of the carbon tax coming up,

774
00:37:50.800 --> 00:37:53.720
<v Audience>it looks like the Playford B station at Port Augusta,

775
00:37:53.740 --> 00:37:56.320
<v Audience>the old chugger, is going to shut down.

776
00:37:57.080 --> 00:37:59.620
<v Audience>And there are concrete proposals

777
00:37:59.620 --> 00:38:05.160
<v Audience>for solar thermal generation there by Beyond Zero Emissions.

778
00:38:06.340 --> 00:38:09.680
<v Audience>They argue that base load can be provided

779
00:38:09.680 --> 00:38:12.360
<v Audience>through storage of heat in molten salt.

780
00:38:13.040 --> 00:38:16.760
<v Audience>I was just wondering if you could comment on that plan,

781
00:38:16.920 --> 00:38:19.000
<v Audience>because there is a national plan for that sort of thing.

782
00:38:20.800 --> 00:38:22.960
<v Audience>And whether you'd support that initiative.

783
00:38:24.100 --> 00:38:25.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>I'm going to hand over to Barry,

784
00:38:25.500 --> 00:38:27.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>who's much more of an expert on this field, aren't you?

785
00:38:27.860 --> 00:38:29.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it's also a local thing.

786
00:38:31.920 --> 00:38:34.180
<v Chair>They're arguing base load on getting, say,

787
00:38:34.200 --> 00:38:37.160
<v Chair>15 hours of electricity storage equivalent

788
00:38:37.160 --> 00:38:39.100
<v Chair>so that you could cover night times

789
00:38:39.100 --> 00:38:41.000
<v Chair>and continue to supply energy.

790
00:38:41.320 --> 00:38:44.300
<v Chair>And I think these are part of the technology portfolio

791
00:38:44.300 --> 00:38:46.040
<v Chair>that we discussed at the summit

792
00:38:46.040 --> 00:38:49.280
<v Chair>as needing multiple demonstration plants around the world

793
00:38:49.280 --> 00:38:53.680
<v Chair>to try and look at different variants of the basic technology

794
00:38:53.680 --> 00:38:56.820
<v Chair>and look at costs of deployment of larger-scale versions.

795
00:38:57.140 --> 00:38:59.000
<v Chair>So for the type of technology

796
00:38:59.000 --> 00:39:01.180
<v Chair>that Beyond Zero Emissions Group are talking about,

797
00:39:01.380 --> 00:39:04.140
<v Chair>there is a demonstration plant that's been built in Spain,

798
00:39:04.300 --> 00:39:07.000
<v Chair>the Hemisolar plant, but it's only 20 megawatts,

799
00:39:07.000 --> 00:39:09.400
<v Chair>and so we need something about 20 times larger

800
00:39:09.400 --> 00:39:11.680
<v Chair>to replace the Port Augusta power station.

801
00:39:11.920 --> 00:39:14.060
<v Chair>And the cost for that first demonstration

802
00:39:14.060 --> 00:39:17.920
<v Chair>comes in at around $30 billion per gigawatt.

803
00:39:18.020 --> 00:39:18.820
<v Chair>So it's...

804
00:39:19.280 --> 00:39:20.600
<v Chair>..too expensive at present,

805
00:39:20.680 --> 00:39:22.160
<v Chair>and so you can't immediately go ahead

806
00:39:22.160 --> 00:39:24.840
<v Chair>and just replace a large coal-fired power station.

807
00:39:26.020 --> 00:39:29.460
<v Chair>The motivation for people who are arguing this on a large scale

808
00:39:29.460 --> 00:39:33.100
<v Chair>is that as you have a learning-by-doing process

809
00:39:33.100 --> 00:39:34.200
<v Chair>and build many of these plants,

810
00:39:34.300 --> 00:39:36.380
<v Chair>then those costs of $30 billion a gigawatt

811
00:39:36.380 --> 00:39:38.060
<v Chair>might come down to five or two,

812
00:39:38.200 --> 00:39:41.260
<v Chair>in which case it really becomes a viable alternative.

813
00:39:42.120 --> 00:39:47.260
<v Chair>I think this underscores the fundamental ambition of the summit,

814
00:39:47.360 --> 00:39:48.700
<v Chair>was to try and...

815
00:39:49.280 --> 00:39:52.100
<v Chair>..select those technologies from a range of different sources,

816
00:39:52.200 --> 00:39:54.480
<v Chair>be it solar or energy storage

817
00:39:54.480 --> 00:39:57.720
<v Chair>or new types of geothermal and new types of nuclear,

818
00:39:57.900 --> 00:40:01.120
<v Chair>and through multilateral agreements and demonstrations,

819
00:40:01.180 --> 00:40:03.980
<v Chair>provide enough knowledge to demonstrate

820
00:40:03.980 --> 00:40:06.440
<v Chair>what is likely to be viable on a large scale

821
00:40:06.440 --> 00:40:08.480
<v Chair>and how those costs are going to be reduced.

822
00:40:08.680 --> 00:40:11.660
<v Chair>Otherwise, we just end up picking our favourite technology

823
00:40:11.660 --> 00:40:13.840
<v Chair>and saying, ah, the costs will be there when it's needed,

824
00:40:14.000 --> 00:40:16.920
<v Chair>but not actually getting to the point where they are deployable.

825
00:40:17.380 --> 00:40:19.260
<v Wilson Da Silva>Two things that arose out of there.

826
00:40:19.280 --> 00:40:19.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>I think the first one is that we were really open on some of that.

827
00:40:19.780 --> 00:40:22.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>You just reminded me that some of the reasons

828
00:40:22.320 --> 00:40:24.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>why we tackled certain technologies and not others

829
00:40:24.600 --> 00:40:27.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>had to do with pre-equisites we went into.

830
00:40:27.620 --> 00:40:30.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>We thought we're facing a climate emergency, really,

831
00:40:30.960 --> 00:40:32.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>and we need...

832
00:40:32.000 --> 00:40:35.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>Energy takes so long to get going to...

833
00:40:35.680 --> 00:40:38.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>A new power plant, irrespective of the type,

834
00:40:38.680 --> 00:40:40.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>takes so long to get up to speed.

835
00:40:41.160 --> 00:40:43.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>So we really didn't have time to dawdle and try favourite technologies.

836
00:40:44.100 --> 00:40:45.340
<v Wilson Da Silva>What we said was, OK,

837
00:40:45.340 --> 00:40:48.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>here are a bunch of technologies that have the potential

838
00:40:48.940 --> 00:40:52.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>to deliver solutions at 20 gigawatt capacity.

839
00:40:52.760 --> 00:40:53.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>So that was the market.

840
00:40:53.960 --> 00:40:56.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>We had to think big, fat energy solutions.

841
00:40:58.360 --> 00:41:01.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it helped clear our minds.

842
00:41:01.200 --> 00:41:03.260
<v Wilson Da Silva>It had to be stuff that can be deployed at a large scale.

843
00:41:03.280 --> 00:41:06.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>We can't sit around talking about popular technologies.

844
00:41:06.800 --> 00:41:09.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>On the popular technologies front, it was interesting.

845
00:41:09.840 --> 00:41:12.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>A lot of conferences are about, you know,

846
00:41:12.120 --> 00:41:13.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>a bunch of solar people talking to each other

847
00:41:13.920 --> 00:41:15.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>and a bunch of nuclear people talking to each other.

848
00:41:15.340 --> 00:41:16.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>And solar, hydrogen, et cetera.

849
00:41:18.480 --> 00:41:21.180
<v Wilson Da Silva>Rarely do you see each of these people

850
00:41:21.180 --> 00:41:24.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>talking across the aisle to each other as scientists

851
00:41:25.280 --> 00:41:27.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>and arguing with each other about the logic

852
00:41:27.780 --> 00:41:30.340
<v Wilson Da Silva>and, you know, applying critical thinking to...

853
00:41:31.300 --> 00:41:33.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>They're familiar to doing it with their colleagues within solar,

854
00:41:33.680 --> 00:41:36.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>but then there's kind of an understood acceptance of solar.

855
00:41:36.700 --> 00:41:39.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>If they have to argue with a nuclear guy and convince the nuclear guy...

856
00:41:39.820 --> 00:41:41.420
<v Wilson Da Silva>There was some interesting discussion there.

857
00:41:41.520 --> 00:41:45.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>And a lot of people came to the conference, the forum,

858
00:41:45.220 --> 00:41:47.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>in particular, came to the conference totally focused

859
00:41:47.660 --> 00:41:50.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>on getting endorsement for this particular technology.

860
00:41:50.860 --> 00:41:53.980
<v Wilson Da Silva>And what happened was they found that it wasn't...

861
00:41:53.980 --> 00:41:56.300
<v Wilson Da Silva>Cos they all came with thinking this is the brilliant solution

862
00:41:56.300 --> 00:41:58.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>that deployed all over the world and will solve all problems.

863
00:41:58.880 --> 00:42:00.040
<v Wilson Da Silva>You know what came out of it?

864
00:42:00.900 --> 00:42:02.880
<v Wilson Da Silva>That it's really applicable in this area,

865
00:42:02.940 --> 00:42:04.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>but maybe not so much in that area.

866
00:42:04.720 --> 00:42:07.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>Or this is how to integrate it into the system

867
00:42:07.160 --> 00:42:08.300
<v Wilson Da Silva>and actually solve all of the problem,

868
00:42:08.420 --> 00:42:11.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>but in an integrated fashion, not as a...

869
00:42:12.160 --> 00:42:14.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>Just do... Everyone do organic PV.

870
00:42:14.520 --> 00:42:17.540
<v Wilson Da Silva>Or everyone do nuclear. That wasn't the way to do it.

871
00:42:17.620 --> 00:42:20.420
<v Wilson Da Silva>And because they were scientists and they have to rationalise things,

872
00:42:20.820 --> 00:42:23.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>you know, the organic solar person would be presenting one day

873
00:42:23.700 --> 00:42:27.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>and he would then be attacking the next person

874
00:42:27.080 --> 00:42:28.060
<v Wilson Da Silva>who might be a nuclear person.

875
00:42:28.200 --> 00:42:30.240
<v Wilson Da Silva>So the nuclear guy had to think, well, I'd better not attack him.

876
00:42:30.320 --> 00:42:32.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>I'd better be fair and try to find a solution for this

877
00:42:32.480 --> 00:42:33.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>cos he's going to do the same to me.

878
00:42:33.580 --> 00:42:37.740
<v Wilson Da Silva>So it kind of forced people to talk across the aisle to each other.

879
00:42:38.220 --> 00:42:40.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>And because you had these advisers who were the...

880
00:42:40.520 --> 00:42:42.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>Not all of them were so young,

881
00:42:42.720 --> 00:42:44.500
<v Wilson Da Silva>but we had these advisers who were experienced,

882
00:42:44.520 --> 00:42:47.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>and understood technologies and engineering and industry.

883
00:42:48.400 --> 00:42:50.440
<v Wilson Da Silva>They were able to poke holes and make sense of it,

884
00:42:50.500 --> 00:42:52.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>saying, well, yeah, it's a great idea, but it's not going to work.

885
00:42:52.680 --> 00:42:55.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>And then you had the young people who were pushing, pushing, pushing,

886
00:42:55.340 --> 00:42:56.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>pushing for change,

887
00:42:56.280 --> 00:42:58.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>cos this was their world that we were talking about.

888
00:42:58.440 --> 00:42:59.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>This is the world they're going to live,

889
00:42:59.700 --> 00:43:00.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>this is the legacy we're going to leave them,

890
00:43:01.020 --> 00:43:03.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>and they were adamant that it had to change.

891
00:43:03.820 --> 00:43:05.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>So it was a wonderful combination.

892
00:43:06.080 --> 00:43:07.880
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it led to, I think, some really interesting stuff.

893
00:43:09.320 --> 00:43:11.980
<v Audience>I'd like to ask how much you challenged

894
00:43:11.980 --> 00:43:13.940
<v Audience>the model of centralised generation.

895
00:43:13.940 --> 00:43:18.700
<v Audience>So, you know, you say your short term is renewables with storage,

896
00:43:18.740 --> 00:43:24.280
<v Audience>and to the extent that storage can be accommodated by modern batteries,

897
00:43:24.360 --> 00:43:26.220
<v Audience>modern batteries can be in big lumps

898
00:43:26.220 --> 00:43:27.860
<v Audience>or they can be in very little small lumps

899
00:43:27.860 --> 00:43:30.120
<v Audience>all over the places where the energy is needed,

900
00:43:30.260 --> 00:43:32.340
<v Audience>and your smart grid can help deliver that.

901
00:43:32.560 --> 00:43:34.940
<v Audience>So how much was that sort of stuff explored?

902
00:43:35.240 --> 00:43:38.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>Absolutely smart grids are necessary for this world,

903
00:43:38.060 --> 00:43:40.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>particularly with the renewables stuff.

904
00:43:41.060 --> 00:43:42.480
<v Wilson Da Silva>Our grids are really dumb

905
00:43:43.180 --> 00:43:45.640
<v Wilson Da Silva>in that they kind of cycle power one way.

906
00:43:45.780 --> 00:43:48.460
<v Wilson Da Silva>We need grids that, if you have solar in your house,

907
00:43:48.520 --> 00:43:50.820
<v Wilson Da Silva>it cycles it back and it actually...

908
00:43:50.820 --> 00:43:52.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>The grid knows how much energy you're using,

909
00:43:52.700 --> 00:43:53.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>how much you're likely to use,

910
00:43:53.780 --> 00:43:56.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>and that's what we need across the board.

911
00:43:56.660 --> 00:43:58.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>And this kind of technology, this kind of deployment,

912
00:43:58.680 --> 00:44:01.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>cannot be done without smart grids.

913
00:44:01.500 --> 00:44:04.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's not a case that we ignored that approach.

914
00:44:04.800 --> 00:44:06.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>We were being realistic about saying

915
00:44:06.680 --> 00:44:09.860
<v Wilson Da Silva>there's so much installed infrastructure in the developed world,

916
00:44:10.360 --> 00:44:12.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>we're not going to throw that away, yeah?

917
00:44:12.480 --> 00:44:14.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>There were some places where substations, for example,

918
00:44:14.920 --> 00:44:18.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>could be converted to superconducting substations

919
00:44:18.280 --> 00:44:20.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>and saving something like between 3% and 9%,

920
00:44:20.660 --> 00:44:21.920
<v Wilson Da Silva>and that doesn't sound like much,

921
00:44:22.000 --> 00:44:23.280
<v Wilson Da Silva>but for a city, that's a lot.

922
00:44:24.060 --> 00:44:27.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>So there were examples like that that we looked at,

923
00:44:27.400 --> 00:44:29.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>but really replacing the whole infrastructure

924
00:44:29.840 --> 00:44:30.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>is not going to be doable,

925
00:44:30.820 --> 00:44:32.180
<v Wilson Da Silva>unless, as the gentleman was suggesting,

926
00:44:32.380 --> 00:44:33.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>a community does itself.

927
00:44:34.000 --> 00:44:36.680
<v Wilson Da Silva>But where infrastructure is still in the construction,

928
00:44:37.540 --> 00:44:40.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>we don't have to follow the Edison model

929
00:44:40.000 --> 00:44:41.580
<v Wilson Da Silva>of New York, 24 houses,

930
00:44:42.480 --> 00:44:44.200
<v Wilson Da Silva>19-whatever-it-was, 01 or something,

931
00:44:44.280 --> 00:44:45.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>or 18-I-forget-what-it-was,

932
00:44:45.480 --> 00:44:48.160
<v Wilson Da Silva>which would have been in the video that I would have played, by the way.

933
00:44:49.080 --> 00:44:50.580
<v Chair>We have time for one more question.

934
00:44:51.660 --> 00:44:53.720
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I've been enormously impressed.

935
00:44:53.840 --> 00:44:56.000
<v Speaker 7>I'm absolutely delighted with this session.

936
00:44:58.300 --> 00:45:01.380
<v Speaker 7>But...and partly because it seems to be beginning to address

937
00:45:01.380 --> 00:45:03.720
<v Speaker 7>what seems to me to be the battle

938
00:45:03.720 --> 00:45:06.000
<v Speaker 7>of the short term against the long term,

939
00:45:06.060 --> 00:45:07.820
<v Speaker 7>the long term against the short term.

940
00:45:09.480 --> 00:45:11.080
<v Speaker 7>So, for example,

941
00:45:11.080 --> 00:45:14.000
<v Speaker 7>I've heard in other sessions here

942
00:45:14.000 --> 00:45:17.080
<v Speaker 7>about how really what we should do is efficiency.

943
00:45:17.480 --> 00:45:19.460
<v Speaker 7>Efficiency will have diminishing returns

944
00:45:20.080 --> 00:45:21.420
<v Speaker 7>in a few years' time.

945
00:45:21.500 --> 00:45:24.980
<v Speaker 7>If we put all our resources into efficiency,

946
00:45:25.300 --> 00:45:29.000
<v Speaker 7>in the end, we'll come up against the limits.

947
00:45:31.200 --> 00:45:32.400
<v Speaker 7>Carbon sequestration.

948
00:45:32.540 --> 00:45:35.540
<v Speaker 7>Carbon sequestration will lead to the development

949
00:45:35.540 --> 00:45:37.360
<v Speaker 7>of more and more coal power stations,

950
00:45:37.680 --> 00:45:39.080
<v Speaker 7>which claim they'll be sequestering,

951
00:45:39.700 --> 00:45:40.560
<v Speaker 7>and perhaps they will,

952
00:45:40.560 --> 00:45:44.580
<v Speaker 7>but it still will absorb all the investment

953
00:45:44.580 --> 00:45:47.560
<v Speaker 7>and all the research resources

954
00:45:47.560 --> 00:45:50.060
<v Speaker 7>which are needed for the more long term.

955
00:45:50.340 --> 00:45:55.160
<v Speaker 7>So I think that the approach which weighs all the things,

956
00:45:55.300 --> 00:45:57.400
<v Speaker 7>because we need short term solutions

957
00:45:57.400 --> 00:45:59.440
<v Speaker 7>so we don't reach a tipping point unexpectedly,

958
00:46:00.060 --> 00:46:02.020
<v Speaker 7>we need long term solutions

959
00:46:02.560 --> 00:46:05.920
<v Speaker 7>because the threat will persist for centuries.

960
00:46:06.380 --> 00:46:06.940
<v Speaker 7>Agreed.

961
00:46:06.960 --> 00:46:09.280
<v Speaker 7>So we need to find a balance.

962
00:46:09.500 --> 00:46:10.540
<v Speaker 7>And up to now,

963
00:46:10.540 --> 00:46:12.580
<v Speaker 7>it's very rare, as you've said,

964
00:46:12.600 --> 00:46:17.220
<v Speaker 7>to find an attempt to balance the different timescales.

965
00:46:17.520 --> 00:46:19.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>Because I think, you know,

966
00:46:19.060 --> 00:46:20.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>the decisions, the large scale decisions

967
00:46:20.940 --> 00:46:21.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>are political decisions,

968
00:46:21.960 --> 00:46:24.300
<v Wilson Da Silva>and politicians get no praise

969
00:46:24.300 --> 00:46:27.000
<v Wilson Da Silva>for making decisions that will play out in 10 or 15 years.

970
00:46:27.400 --> 00:46:29.380
<v Wilson Da Silva>We need to, as citizens,

971
00:46:29.680 --> 00:46:32.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>encourage and reward those that do,

972
00:46:33.540 --> 00:46:35.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>and punish those that don't.

973
00:46:36.300 --> 00:46:37.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>Because, you know,

974
00:46:37.440 --> 00:46:38.960
<v Wilson Da Silva>it's gone beyond a joke now.

975
00:46:39.020 --> 00:46:39.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's not a case of,

976
00:46:39.840 --> 00:46:42.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>let's make it look pretty and dress it up.

977
00:46:42.220 --> 00:46:44.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>It's now a serious problem.

978
00:46:44.180 --> 00:46:46.360
<v Wilson Da Silva>We need to address these problems.

979
00:46:46.580 --> 00:46:49.440
<v Wilson Da Silva>And we didn't tackle carbon capture at all.

980
00:46:49.680 --> 00:46:53.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>Because what is the point of targeting carbon capture

981
00:46:53.520 --> 00:46:57.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>if you're still producing coal-fired power plants?

982
00:46:58.440 --> 00:46:59.800
<v Wilson Da Silva>Yes, there's lots of coal in the world,

983
00:46:59.840 --> 00:47:01.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>but let's not use it for that.

984
00:47:02.520 --> 00:47:06.180
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it wasn't very popular with the Forum either.

985
00:47:06.220 --> 00:47:07.600
<v Wilson Da Silva>We would never have got it past the Forum.

986
00:47:07.740 --> 00:47:09.520
<v Wilson Da Silva>Like building another coal-fired power station,

987
00:47:09.520 --> 00:47:10.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>they wouldn't allow.

988
00:47:10.980 --> 00:47:12.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>And I totally agree with them.

989
00:47:12.720 --> 00:47:13.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>We have no reason to.

990
00:47:13.880 --> 00:47:14.700
<v Wilson Da Silva>We have other technologies.

991
00:47:15.220 --> 00:47:16.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>You know, I wouldn't be,

992
00:47:16.320 --> 00:47:20.140
<v Wilson Da Silva>we're facing a climate emergency

993
00:47:21.460 --> 00:47:23.900
<v Wilson Da Silva>where I suspect, as an individual,

994
00:47:24.120 --> 00:47:25.560
<v Wilson Da Silva>speaking on behalf of my organisation,

995
00:47:25.760 --> 00:47:26.720
<v Wilson Da Silva>but as an individual,

996
00:47:26.780 --> 00:47:28.260
<v Wilson Da Silva>I suspect that in this century,

997
00:47:28.320 --> 00:47:30.220
<v Wilson Da Silva>we're likely to see tens of millions of people die

998
00:47:30.220 --> 00:47:31.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>because of climate change,

999
00:47:31.180 --> 00:47:32.440
<v Wilson Da Silva>if not maybe 100 million.

1000
00:47:34.560 --> 00:47:35.760
<v Wilson Da Silva>And it's not a case,

1001
00:47:35.920 --> 00:47:37.660
<v Wilson Da Silva>you know, every time that we delay,

1002
00:47:37.800 --> 00:47:39.100
<v Wilson Da Silva>and I'm not talking about targets or whatever,

1003
00:47:39.520 --> 00:47:41.940
<v Wilson Da Silva>but let's deploy things that are logical and rational

1004
00:47:41.940 --> 00:47:44.080
<v Wilson Da Silva>and make long-term sense.

1005
00:47:44.440 --> 00:47:45.780
<v Wilson Da Silva>And this is why it's such a pleasure

1006
00:47:45.780 --> 00:47:46.840
<v Wilson Da Silva>to deal with scientists who,

1007
00:47:46.960 --> 00:47:49.180
<v Wilson Da Silva>if you actually release them from the shackles

1008
00:47:49.180 --> 00:47:51.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>of political cycles and funding strategies

1009
00:47:51.620 --> 00:47:52.620
<v Wilson Da Silva>and just ask them to think

1010
00:47:52.620 --> 00:47:55.120
<v Wilson Da Silva>about what's the most logical technical solution,

1011
00:47:55.420 --> 00:47:56.020
<v Wilson Da Silva>guess what?

1012
00:47:56.160 --> 00:47:57.320
<v Wilson Da Silva>They come up with really good stuff.

1013
00:47:57.660 --> 00:47:58.400
<v Wilson Da Silva>They really do.

1014
00:47:59.360 --> 00:48:01.740
<v Chair>Please join me in thanking Wilson de Silva for today.