WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.240 Good afternoon everybody. I'd like to welcome you to this session. 2 00:00:04.700 --> 00:00:08.900 Welcome to the Adelaide Festival of Ideas and today's session is 3 00:00:08.900 --> 00:00:11.620 How will climate change affect your food? 4 00:00:13.780 --> 00:00:23.120 My name is Bob Gibson. I head up a group called Food Plus Research Centre 5 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:25.900 based out at the Waite campus of Adelaide University 6 00:00:25.900 --> 00:00:32.420 and I have a passionate interest in this area since I think one of the major determinants of food production 7 00:00:32.420 --> 00:00:36.140 is going to be trying to second guess climate change. 8 00:00:37.960 --> 00:00:41.840 I want to let you all know that this session is being recorded today 9 00:00:41.840 --> 00:00:46.140 so I'm going to ask you all if you will do two things. 10 00:00:46.240 --> 00:00:51.340 First of all, if you want to ask a question, there will be 15 minutes at the end of this session 11 00:00:51.340 --> 00:00:54.960 for questions from the floor and general discussion 12 00:00:54.960 --> 00:00:55.880 but before that, I'd like to ask you all to please stand up. 13 00:00:55.880 --> 00:00:58.220 Please do so into the microphone at the end. 14 00:00:58.660 --> 00:01:05.820 The other thing to help things along, if you will please turn your gadgets to silent please 15 00:01:05.820 --> 00:01:07.760 because that will disturb people. 16 00:01:09.020 --> 00:01:15.640 You of course are most welcome to tweet at tweet at ideas Adelaide 17 00:01:15.640 --> 00:01:19.240 and the hashtag is hash AFOI 18 00:01:20.540 --> 00:01:24.960 and I would like to say to also welcome you to country. 19 00:01:25.880 --> 00:01:29.580 I acknowledge today that we are gathered on the traditional country of the Kaurna people 20 00:01:29.580 --> 00:01:31.160 of the Adelaide Plains. 21 00:01:31.260 --> 00:01:36.040 We recognise and respect their cultural heritage, beliefs and relationship to the land. 22 00:01:36.300 --> 00:01:40.700 We acknowledge that they are of continuing importance to the Kaurna people living today 23 00:01:40.700 --> 00:01:43.980 and we respect their elders past and present. 24 00:01:46.240 --> 00:01:49.320 There are two speakers today and we are incredibly lucky to get them. 25 00:01:50.000 --> 00:01:53.860 Both are experts and incredibly interesting people. 26 00:01:53.860 --> 00:02:00.940 Mark Howden is Chief Research Scientist with CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences in Canberra 27 00:02:00.940 --> 00:02:05.600 and is leader of adaptive primary industries, enterprises and communities theme 28 00:02:05.600 --> 00:02:11.340 in the CSIRO climate adaptation flagship and honorary professor at Melbourne University. 29 00:02:12.040 --> 00:02:17.720 I think one of the things that Mark's greatest claim to fame is the fact that he was a contributor 30 00:02:17.720 --> 00:02:23.840 to the intergovernmental panel on climate change and he shares the 2007 report 31 00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:26.420 read by Bob Levine read by Bob Levine read by Bob Levine 32 00:02:26.420 --> 00:02:28.620 read by Bob Levine 33 00:02:28.620 --> 00:02:31.560 read by Bob Levine 34 00:02:31.560 --> 00:02:38.320 read by Bob Levine 35 00:02:38.320 --> 00:02:40.120 read by Bob Levine 36 00:02:40.120 --> 00:02:41.360 read by Bob Levine 37 00:02:41.360 --> 00:02:42.140 read by Bob Levine 38 00:02:42.140 --> 00:02:42.160 read by Bob Levine 39 00:02:42.160 --> 00:02:42.340 read by Bob Levine 40 00:02:42.340 --> 00:02:42.720 read by Bob Levine 41 00:02:42.720 --> 00:02:43.500 read by Bob Levine 42 00:02:43.500 --> 00:02:44.820 read by Bob Levine 43 00:02:44.820 --> 00:02:45.440 read by Bob Levine 44 00:02:45.440 --> 00:02:46.640 read by Bob Levine 45 00:02:46.640 --> 00:02:47.520 read by Bob Levine 46 00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:49.560 read by Bob Levine 47 00:02:49.560 --> 00:02:50.180 read by Bob Levine 48 00:02:50.180 --> 00:02:51.320 read by Bob Levine 49 00:02:51.320 --> 00:02:53.800 read by Bob Levine 50 00:02:53.800 --> 00:02:57.500 impacts on food or potential impacts on food and food systems. 51 00:02:57.780 --> 00:03:00.660 This is a little bit different from some of the other talks 52 00:03:00.660 --> 00:03:01.920 which have been given at the festival, 53 00:03:02.020 --> 00:03:05.760 which actually focus particularly on how the greenhouse gas emissions 54 00:03:05.760 --> 00:03:10.280 embodied in food and water may impact on global change itself. 55 00:03:10.980 --> 00:03:13.440 So in this talk, I'm actually going to particularly focus 56 00:03:13.440 --> 00:03:15.220 on these things up at the top here, 57 00:03:15.300 --> 00:03:18.060 which is opportunity, risk and success. 58 00:03:18.400 --> 00:03:20.980 I'll be looking across different aspects of the food chain, 59 00:03:21.040 --> 00:03:23.040 but pretty briefly, this is a very quick skate 60 00:03:23.040 --> 00:03:24.480 over a very broad field. 61 00:03:25.100 --> 00:03:29.040 And I'd also like to acknowledge my co-authors, 62 00:03:29.100 --> 00:03:31.520 Uday Nijimalyu and Peter Heyman, who are in the audience, 63 00:03:31.720 --> 00:03:33.900 as well as colleagues such as Brian Foster, 64 00:03:34.120 --> 00:03:38.540 who have been integral to the development of this area of work. 65 00:03:38.940 --> 00:03:42.600 I'd also like to acknowledge the traditional owners, the Kaurna people, 66 00:03:42.720 --> 00:03:46.160 because they themselves actually lived through several climate changes 67 00:03:46.160 --> 00:03:48.060 of quite significance. 68 00:03:49.620 --> 00:03:52.480 So just in the interests of actually overturning 69 00:03:52.480 --> 00:03:53.020 the discussion, 70 00:03:53.040 --> 00:03:54.480 I'm going to start with a theme of this festival, 71 00:03:54.540 --> 00:03:57.220 which is actually planning for uncertainty. 72 00:03:57.540 --> 00:03:59.280 I'm actually going to give you planning for certainty here. 73 00:03:59.920 --> 00:04:02.300 So I'm actually going to tell you what I'm going to talk about 74 00:04:02.300 --> 00:04:03.160 in this presentation. 75 00:04:04.280 --> 00:04:08.880 And then those of you who have heard me can actually then leave 76 00:04:08.880 --> 00:04:10.320 without listening to the rest of it, 77 00:04:10.340 --> 00:04:11.520 but of course you'll want to stay for Amanda. 78 00:04:13.600 --> 00:04:16.340 The first thing I'm trying to do is actually start 79 00:04:16.340 --> 00:04:18.220 to reframe this question a little bit. 80 00:04:18.640 --> 00:04:21.280 At the moment, one of the core debates in this 81 00:04:21.280 --> 00:04:23.020 is actually trying to put climate change 82 00:04:23.020 --> 00:04:25.420 and climate science and the uncertainties associated 83 00:04:25.420 --> 00:04:27.520 with that at the core of the debate. 84 00:04:28.020 --> 00:04:31.440 And then you have things like greenhouse gas emission reduction 85 00:04:31.440 --> 00:04:34.400 policies and activities and adaptation activities 86 00:04:34.400 --> 00:04:37.020 and various other things sort of sitting on the outside 87 00:04:37.020 --> 00:04:38.400 of this big bubble in the middle. 88 00:04:38.640 --> 00:04:41.500 And I actually think that's a flawed perspective 89 00:04:42.020 --> 00:04:43.540 on this particular issue. 90 00:04:44.140 --> 00:04:46.060 I actually think we have to reframe this 91 00:04:46.580 --> 00:04:49.020 as something a little bit different, which I'll talk about. 92 00:04:49.540 --> 00:04:52.360 I'll actually just very briefly give a little bit of the evidence 93 00:04:52.360 --> 00:04:55.720 of the changes that are already happening in terms of our climate 94 00:04:55.720 --> 00:04:59.600 and the fact that they are very likely due to human activities. 95 00:05:00.400 --> 00:05:05.440 Also, a little bit of a taste of what might be coming down our way, 96 00:05:05.500 --> 00:05:06.880 down the tracks in terms of climate, 97 00:05:07.000 --> 00:05:10.620 because this change is increasingly likely to be inevitable 98 00:05:10.620 --> 00:05:11.800 as far as we can tell. 99 00:05:12.460 --> 00:05:15.260 Those changes that I'm going to talk about are very significant 100 00:05:15.260 --> 00:05:18.280 in terms of activities here in South Australia and elsewhere, 101 00:05:18.500 --> 00:05:21.360 and they will affect things that we value, 102 00:05:21.460 --> 00:05:22.240 including food. 103 00:05:22.360 --> 00:05:23.160 Food systems and agriculture. 104 00:05:23.580 --> 00:05:25.680 So they're things that we need to be concerned about. 105 00:05:26.400 --> 00:05:29.680 There are many adaptations possible, which I'll talk a little bit about, 106 00:05:29.920 --> 00:05:32.680 that give people better alternatives, 107 00:05:33.220 --> 00:05:36.660 so that the key driver, in my view, for adaptation 108 00:05:36.660 --> 00:05:38.680 is not about top-down imposition, 109 00:05:38.860 --> 00:05:40.920 but it's actually about giving people better options 110 00:05:40.920 --> 00:05:42.760 that they can implement in their own lives. 111 00:05:44.240 --> 00:05:46.140 I don't think, however, that adaptation, 112 00:05:46.500 --> 00:05:48.000 an effective adaptation, is inevitable. 113 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:49.980 I think we actually do have to do things 114 00:05:49.980 --> 00:05:52.340 to make this happen in a reasonable way, 115 00:05:52.360 --> 00:05:54.420 across the broad sweep of society. 116 00:05:54.900 --> 00:05:58.060 And part of this is actually starting to make adaptation normal, 117 00:05:58.280 --> 00:06:00.960 not exceptional, but it's actually just an integral part 118 00:06:00.960 --> 00:06:04.280 of our day-to-day activities, our ideas and our ideals. 119 00:06:04.600 --> 00:06:06.900 And that should, in a sense, be the same 120 00:06:06.900 --> 00:06:08.880 for dealing with greenhouse gas mitigation. 121 00:06:08.980 --> 00:06:11.240 That's the emission reduction side of the things. 122 00:06:12.660 --> 00:06:14.760 However, even if we do adapt well, 123 00:06:14.940 --> 00:06:17.520 with the sort of changes that we might encounter, 124 00:06:17.680 --> 00:06:19.460 that will not be enough. 125 00:06:19.800 --> 00:06:21.320 So there's still a residual, 126 00:06:21.320 --> 00:06:23.680 between perhaps where we might like to see 127 00:06:23.680 --> 00:06:25.940 our food production systems and our society 128 00:06:25.940 --> 00:06:27.140 and our natural resource management 129 00:06:27.140 --> 00:06:29.240 and what we may have to deal with. 130 00:06:31.320 --> 00:06:33.400 Now, in terms of reframing, as I just mentioned, 131 00:06:33.480 --> 00:06:36.620 one of the problems here is that the climate science 132 00:06:36.620 --> 00:06:39.600 has tended to dominate a lot of the funding activities 133 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:40.800 and a lot of the discussion. 134 00:06:41.020 --> 00:06:43.120 And the uncertainties inherent in this 135 00:06:43.120 --> 00:06:45.340 actually give a leverage point for people 136 00:06:45.340 --> 00:06:49.520 who want to, for various reasons, dispute climate change 137 00:06:49.520 --> 00:06:51.160 and some degree of disputation, 138 00:06:51.160 --> 00:06:51.300 as I said, in the past. 139 00:06:51.300 --> 00:06:51.920 And that is quite legitimate. 140 00:06:52.740 --> 00:06:55.840 But, in fact, what we actually do in this process 141 00:06:55.840 --> 00:06:58.760 is we put that climate science at the core of the issue. 142 00:06:59.540 --> 00:07:01.460 And yet there is still significant uncertainty 143 00:07:01.460 --> 00:07:02.560 about that climate science, 144 00:07:02.680 --> 00:07:04.440 and there always will be uncertainty 145 00:07:04.440 --> 00:07:05.680 about that climate science. 146 00:07:05.860 --> 00:07:08.740 In the process of it, it tends to devalue those things, 147 00:07:08.840 --> 00:07:11.040 which, in my view, are much more important. 148 00:07:11.240 --> 00:07:13.060 And those are the values and decisions 149 00:07:13.060 --> 00:07:16.500 that we as individuals, communities, society actually have. 150 00:07:16.660 --> 00:07:18.980 And we should start to reframe this, in my view, 151 00:07:19.080 --> 00:07:21.140 as putting those at the core of the issue, 152 00:07:21.300 --> 00:07:24.740 and then the climate is either an input into that 153 00:07:24.740 --> 00:07:27.220 or a consequence of that, 154 00:07:27.280 --> 00:07:28.900 say, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. 155 00:07:29.300 --> 00:07:31.560 And if we actually start to do that, 156 00:07:31.660 --> 00:07:33.320 I think we can actually change the debate. 157 00:07:33.400 --> 00:07:35.180 We can change it from being something 158 00:07:35.180 --> 00:07:37.160 which is externally imposed on us 159 00:07:37.160 --> 00:07:39.440 to something which we can actually own 160 00:07:39.440 --> 00:07:41.260 and which we can change for ourselves. 161 00:07:41.340 --> 00:07:43.200 And I think that's a fundamentally important thing. 162 00:07:43.560 --> 00:07:46.940 And in doing this, what my view is, 163 00:07:47.000 --> 00:07:48.440 we actually start out pragmatically 164 00:07:48.440 --> 00:07:51.100 with those things that we can broadly agree on, 165 00:07:51.300 --> 00:07:52.380 that are important to us. 166 00:07:52.440 --> 00:07:54.080 So, in a sense, we start at the bottom 167 00:07:54.080 --> 00:07:56.260 of our chain of important things, 168 00:07:56.540 --> 00:08:00.800 those things like clean and adequate food, water, shelter. 169 00:08:01.560 --> 00:08:03.920 And if we actually start to look at those things 170 00:08:03.920 --> 00:08:06.380 and focus on what we can do about them, 171 00:08:06.440 --> 00:08:08.860 so it's not just the fact that there's a problem, 172 00:08:08.960 --> 00:08:10.640 but it's also something that is matched 173 00:08:10.640 --> 00:08:12.000 with potential solutions, 174 00:08:12.880 --> 00:08:16.240 then we can actually start to build from the bottom up 175 00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:18.940 a set of changes in activities and behaviours, 176 00:08:18.940 --> 00:08:21.000 which, arguably, according to, 177 00:08:21.000 --> 00:08:21.920 to psychological theory, 178 00:08:22.060 --> 00:08:24.880 will eventually lead to changes in attitudes and values. 179 00:08:25.620 --> 00:08:27.260 So, rather than a top-down process, 180 00:08:27.360 --> 00:08:28.860 which tends to have happened in the past, 181 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:31.140 I actually think we should start looking at adaptation 182 00:08:31.140 --> 00:08:34.220 as an opportunity to build up a bottom-up consensus 183 00:08:34.220 --> 00:08:36.220 on climate change issues. 184 00:08:38.120 --> 00:08:40.160 Now, this is a really important graph, in my view. 185 00:08:40.320 --> 00:08:43.340 What this does is it indicates greenhouse gas emissions, 186 00:08:43.560 --> 00:08:45.880 which are, in a sense, the core of the issue. 187 00:08:46.120 --> 00:08:47.260 They're a human activity. 188 00:08:47.400 --> 00:08:49.960 This is the human-centred view of life. 189 00:08:51.000 --> 00:08:54.820 And what this does is it shows these coloured lines out here 190 00:08:54.820 --> 00:08:58.640 are the scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, 191 00:08:58.800 --> 00:09:00.560 which were produced about a decade ago. 192 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:02.760 So, there's some low-end scenarios, 193 00:09:02.920 --> 00:09:04.460 which are low-economic growth, 194 00:09:05.400 --> 00:09:07.320 sort of low-population growth scenarios, 195 00:09:07.680 --> 00:09:09.300 and then there's some high-end scenarios 196 00:09:09.300 --> 00:09:11.080 called the fossil fuel-intensive scenario, 197 00:09:11.180 --> 00:09:11.980 like that line there. 198 00:09:12.280 --> 00:09:14.680 And these dots here are actually what's happened 199 00:09:14.680 --> 00:09:17.140 over this period of time, 200 00:09:17.260 --> 00:09:19.260 so going back about 20 years. 201 00:09:19.500 --> 00:09:20.860 And, in a sense, 202 00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:23.500 these things having been published about 10 years ago 203 00:09:23.500 --> 00:09:25.440 are not truly a prediction, 204 00:09:25.540 --> 00:09:27.300 but they are a spectrum of possibilities 205 00:09:28.700 --> 00:09:32.180 that the scientists and others who constructed these scenarios 206 00:09:32.180 --> 00:09:34.460 thought was feasible, internally consistent. 207 00:09:34.860 --> 00:09:36.180 And what we can actually see 208 00:09:36.180 --> 00:09:38.760 with these greenhouse gas emissions here and up here 209 00:09:38.760 --> 00:09:41.720 is that, with the exception of the global financial crisis, 210 00:09:42.100 --> 00:09:44.480 the actual emissions have exceeded 211 00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:47.780 the worst-case scenario thought possible 212 00:09:47.780 --> 00:09:49.120 as little as 10 years ago. 213 00:09:49.320 --> 00:09:50.980 And if we look at the other... 214 00:09:51.000 --> 00:09:52.580 There are other key indicators of climate change. 215 00:09:52.940 --> 00:09:54.820 That's carbon dioxide concentrations, 216 00:09:55.300 --> 00:09:57.680 global temperature change and sea level change. 217 00:09:57.840 --> 00:10:01.060 In all cases, they are at or above the worst-case scenario 218 00:10:01.060 --> 00:10:02.860 thought as little as 10 years ago. 219 00:10:03.280 --> 00:10:07.760 So, this is actually a really significant situation 220 00:10:07.760 --> 00:10:11.700 where we're actually tracking worse than the worst-case scenario. 221 00:10:11.880 --> 00:10:12.500 And that's the reality. 222 00:10:12.720 --> 00:10:14.400 This isn't a projection. This is the reality. 223 00:10:14.700 --> 00:10:16.540 And the important part of that, too, 224 00:10:16.620 --> 00:10:18.280 is those emissions have been going up 225 00:10:18.280 --> 00:10:20.440 something like 3% a year over this period. 226 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:23.660 Obviously, the bounce-back from the global financial crisis 227 00:10:23.660 --> 00:10:24.520 is a fast one. 228 00:10:24.880 --> 00:10:26.840 But on average, about 3% a year. 229 00:10:27.020 --> 00:10:30.400 This is really important because, as this graph shows, 230 00:10:30.600 --> 00:10:34.060 is that we actually need to be decreasing emissions 231 00:10:34.060 --> 00:10:35.540 by about 2% a year 232 00:10:35.540 --> 00:10:40.140 to actually come in below a 2°C change target 233 00:10:40.140 --> 00:10:43.560 if we think 2°C is the dangerous level of climate change. 234 00:10:43.960 --> 00:10:45.200 So, that actually means the difference 235 00:10:45.200 --> 00:10:47.420 between plus 3 and minus 2 is 5%. 236 00:10:47.420 --> 00:10:49.760 So, we actually have to turn around our economy 237 00:10:50.480 --> 00:10:50.980 to the other side. 238 00:10:50.980 --> 00:10:52.620 We have to be able to keep the tune of 1 20th of our emissions 239 00:10:52.620 --> 00:10:55.320 every year, year on year, out into the future. 240 00:10:55.720 --> 00:10:57.480 And I simply, at this stage, 241 00:10:57.600 --> 00:10:59.120 can't see that happening, unfortunately. 242 00:11:00.480 --> 00:11:02.140 The other interesting part of this graph 243 00:11:02.140 --> 00:11:04.840 is that if you go out to, say, if we start... 244 00:11:04.840 --> 00:11:07.620 What this says is that the earlier we start emission reductions, 245 00:11:07.800 --> 00:11:10.360 the less we have to do on a year-by-year basis. 246 00:11:10.480 --> 00:11:13.380 So, if we wait to 2025 to start getting our act together on this, 247 00:11:13.500 --> 00:11:17.840 we have to reduce our emissions something like by 1 8th every year 248 00:11:17.840 --> 00:11:19.840 until we get down to zero emissions, 249 00:11:20.340 --> 00:11:20.740 roughly. 250 00:11:20.980 --> 00:11:22.460 Roughly in the mid-2040s. 251 00:11:23.080 --> 00:11:24.200 A huge task. 252 00:11:24.420 --> 00:11:26.900 I mean, if we think 5% a year is going to be a challenge, 253 00:11:27.040 --> 00:11:32.360 going down by 25% if you leave it to 2030 to start acting, 254 00:11:32.440 --> 00:11:37.520 or even, you know, 12% a year if we start acting a little bit earlier, 255 00:11:37.560 --> 00:11:38.960 it's just going to be massive change. 256 00:11:39.280 --> 00:11:41.720 I don't think feasible within our systems. 257 00:11:42.460 --> 00:11:44.240 So, essentially, this says to me 258 00:11:44.240 --> 00:11:47.380 that we are committed, one way or another, 259 00:11:47.540 --> 00:11:50.680 because of uncertainties and because of lags 260 00:11:50.680 --> 00:11:52.720 in our systems, in terms of our geopolitical systems, 261 00:11:52.940 --> 00:11:55.580 we are committed probably to at least two degrees change, 262 00:11:55.800 --> 00:11:58.140 possibly four, possibly six or more. 263 00:11:58.340 --> 00:12:00.040 And that's the science debate at the moment, 264 00:12:00.140 --> 00:12:02.860 is not limiting our thinking to two degrees. 265 00:12:03.420 --> 00:12:06.520 Now, the basic theory of greenhouse gas emissions 266 00:12:06.520 --> 00:12:09.720 and climate change has been known since the 1800s. 267 00:12:10.180 --> 00:12:12.340 1842 was the first observation of this. 268 00:12:12.940 --> 00:12:15.320 1875, there was a measurement done of this. 269 00:12:15.700 --> 00:12:19.020 1895, there was a paper produced on it by a Swedish chemist. 270 00:12:19.160 --> 00:12:20.600 And the basic... 271 00:12:20.600 --> 00:12:22.620 The basic story is if we keep on putting out greenhouse gases, 272 00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:24.260 it's like putting blankets in our atmosphere, 273 00:12:24.420 --> 00:12:27.500 and it prevents energy which otherwise would go out of space. 274 00:12:27.660 --> 00:12:29.200 It keeps some of that next to the Earth. 275 00:12:29.780 --> 00:12:31.680 That's essentially the basis of the theory. 276 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:33.380 And if the theory is right, 277 00:12:33.560 --> 00:12:35.380 then we've been producing lots of greenhouse gases, 278 00:12:35.440 --> 00:12:36.520 as I showed you just before, 279 00:12:36.760 --> 00:12:39.960 and we probably should have already started to see climate change. 280 00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:42.820 So if we actually look at what's going on on our Earth 281 00:12:42.820 --> 00:12:45.500 and compare it with the projections of future change, 282 00:12:45.640 --> 00:12:48.460 what we find is extreme degrees of consistency 283 00:12:48.460 --> 00:12:49.760 between those two things. 284 00:12:49.880 --> 00:12:50.580 So, for example, 285 00:12:51.300 --> 00:12:53.460 we've got projections of increased temperatures, 286 00:12:53.720 --> 00:12:57.240 depending on the scenario, emission scenario, 287 00:12:57.460 --> 00:12:59.560 could be moderate to extreme. 288 00:13:00.040 --> 00:13:03.080 And what we actually find is that right across the globe, 289 00:13:03.220 --> 00:13:04.580 with a few tiny exceptions, 290 00:13:04.920 --> 00:13:06.780 those temperatures are going up. 291 00:13:06.900 --> 00:13:08.640 And if we look at South Australia, 292 00:13:08.840 --> 00:13:10.940 this is straight off the Bureau of Met website, 293 00:13:11.160 --> 00:13:14.540 we can actually see that there's been a sustained period of increase in temperatures. 294 00:13:14.820 --> 00:13:16.680 This is the black line as the 10-year average. 295 00:13:16.880 --> 00:13:19.040 And that just keeps on going up and up and up. 296 00:13:19.260 --> 00:13:20.520 And there's no... 297 00:13:20.520 --> 00:13:24.000 there's no hint there of a reversal in this warming. 298 00:13:24.720 --> 00:13:28.880 Just like there's no hint there on the global average temperature increase 299 00:13:28.880 --> 00:13:30.460 of anything going backwards. 300 00:13:30.580 --> 00:13:31.660 You might hear media saying, 301 00:13:31.820 --> 00:13:32.520 oh, the Earth's cooling. 302 00:13:32.700 --> 00:13:35.000 That's simply not what's supported by the data. 303 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:36.800 And interestingly, 304 00:13:36.980 --> 00:13:38.680 if you actually look at this average temperature, 305 00:13:38.820 --> 00:13:39.920 which we're experiencing now, 306 00:13:40.160 --> 00:13:46.100 it's actually hotter than the hottest year ever experienced by my grandparents in those times. 307 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:49.660 So we're already at the point where the average temperature is hotter 308 00:13:49.660 --> 00:13:52.180 than the hottest year experienced by those people. 309 00:13:52.340 --> 00:13:56.860 And very soon, we'll be at a situation where the coolest year we experience 310 00:13:56.860 --> 00:14:00.340 will be hotter than the hottest year ever experienced by our grandparents. 311 00:14:00.960 --> 00:14:04.080 A fundamental change in climate as we experience it. 312 00:14:04.340 --> 00:14:06.500 We've already seen increased temperature extremes, 313 00:14:06.640 --> 00:14:09.880 which are also in anticipated increase in the future. 314 00:14:10.000 --> 00:14:13.780 In Adelaide, March 2008, you had 15 days in a row 315 00:14:13.780 --> 00:14:15.560 which were greater than 35 degrees. 316 00:14:15.680 --> 00:14:16.960 I'm sure a lot of you remember that. 317 00:14:17.420 --> 00:14:19.640 The previous record, I think, was eight or seven. 318 00:14:19.640 --> 00:14:19.940 Or eight. 319 00:14:20.080 --> 00:14:22.020 Back in 1908, I think it might have been. 320 00:14:22.920 --> 00:14:25.200 And then 2009, we had another... 321 00:14:25.200 --> 00:14:29.820 It would have been another record set with nine degrees in a row in February. 322 00:14:31.100 --> 00:14:34.800 So we're already seeing those extreme temperatures starting to ramp up. 323 00:14:34.880 --> 00:14:36.640 And they're happening in Adelaide and other places. 324 00:14:36.860 --> 00:14:38.920 We've seen reduced rainfall in southern Australia. 325 00:14:39.060 --> 00:14:42.640 The drought that we've conveniently forgotten because it rained last year. 326 00:14:43.300 --> 00:14:46.960 And we know something about the processes that are actually causing that drought. 327 00:14:47.140 --> 00:14:48.620 So what we've actually seen... 328 00:14:48.620 --> 00:14:49.480 So this is actually today. 329 00:14:49.480 --> 00:14:51.480 It's an optic weather map from the Bureau of Met. 330 00:14:51.720 --> 00:14:55.940 And what we've actually seen is this big shift downwards in terms of our climate systems. 331 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:59.340 So when I was a kid and I used to look at these sort of things, 332 00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:01.780 typically at this time of year in early to mid-spring, 333 00:15:01.920 --> 00:15:04.720 the high-pressure systems would be tracking over Alice Springs. 334 00:15:04.980 --> 00:15:07.300 All your cold fronts would be coming across here, 335 00:15:07.340 --> 00:15:09.460 dumping rainfall across the southern quarter of Australia. 336 00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:11.320 And everyone would be happy. 337 00:15:11.480 --> 00:15:12.440 Our rivers would be full. 338 00:15:13.020 --> 00:15:14.260 Soil profiles would be full. 339 00:15:15.160 --> 00:15:15.880 Crops would grow. 340 00:15:16.200 --> 00:15:19.460 The problem is now we've actually seen this extraordinary change. 341 00:15:19.460 --> 00:15:20.160 And we're seeing these really dramatic changes in our systems. 342 00:15:20.340 --> 00:15:22.020 And they're really systematic changes. 343 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:23.220 They're not just a blip. 344 00:15:23.420 --> 00:15:25.120 They're really, really strong signals. 345 00:15:25.320 --> 00:15:29.260 And what we're seeing is these high-pressure systems are starting to track much further south. 346 00:15:29.480 --> 00:15:31.540 I think my little thing has gone off the blink. 347 00:15:32.180 --> 00:15:37.200 So those high-pressure systems are actually starting to track at this time of year in Tasmanian latitudes, 348 00:15:37.480 --> 00:15:39.000 not Alice Springs-type latitudes, 349 00:15:39.180 --> 00:15:41.640 pushing those cold fronts down, 350 00:15:41.800 --> 00:15:43.640 pushing that rain down into the Southern Ocean. 351 00:15:43.820 --> 00:15:49.240 And we're getting these extraordinary incursions of tropical air coming in. 352 00:15:49.240 --> 00:15:51.640 So you can see those troughs coming in from the north. 353 00:15:51.760 --> 00:15:57.360 And so it's actually bringing in tropical air down into this part of the continent at this time of year. 354 00:15:57.500 --> 00:16:00.460 It's really extraordinary if you actually know anything about climatology. 355 00:16:01.620 --> 00:16:04.920 We've also seen increased rainfall in northern Australia, 356 00:16:05.980 --> 00:16:08.360 fostering suggestions to move our agriculture up there. 357 00:16:08.500 --> 00:16:11.420 We've seen increased rainfall intensity right across the board. 358 00:16:11.480 --> 00:16:14.360 Again, something that's consistent with our climate change projections. 359 00:16:15.220 --> 00:16:16.240 Reduced river flows. 360 00:16:16.340 --> 00:16:18.420 So we had record low flows in the Murray. 361 00:16:19.240 --> 00:16:23.600 And those flows are another key projection of climate change. 362 00:16:23.700 --> 00:16:28.940 Minus 40% reductions at the extreme end by 2030 in the Murray River. 363 00:16:29.140 --> 00:16:30.760 And we've seen increased fire risk. 364 00:16:30.860 --> 00:16:34.060 So we don't have to remind anyone of fire risk in Australia, 365 00:16:34.100 --> 00:16:38.320 but it's really important to remind us about one of the key indicators of fire risk. 366 00:16:38.580 --> 00:16:43.240 So quite a while back, in response to that, we set up a fire danger index, 367 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:48.080 which was rated from 0 to 100, 100 being the worst possible situation on record. 368 00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:49.460 And we've seen a lot of changes. 369 00:16:49.460 --> 00:16:52.240 In 2003 in Canberra, in my town, there was 113. 370 00:16:53.400 --> 00:16:56.380 Okay, maybe just chance that you get something that extreme. 371 00:16:56.920 --> 00:17:04.080 The 2009 fires in Victoria had a fire danger index of 181.80. 372 00:17:04.760 --> 00:17:07.860 In spring of that year, you guys might have forgotten it, 373 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:13.740 but there was actually an occurrence of a fire danger index of 215 in South Australia. 374 00:17:14.040 --> 00:17:16.580 So these are not marginal changes. 375 00:17:16.780 --> 00:17:19.220 These are absolutely serious, big changes. 376 00:17:19.240 --> 00:17:23.560 And we're seeing them already, and they are entirely consistent with our future expectations. 377 00:17:25.100 --> 00:17:29.340 So we got to the situation where people, and this is a quote from a farmer who just says, 378 00:17:29.740 --> 00:17:32.840 much of the rains come in summer storms, that's high intensity events, 379 00:17:33.480 --> 00:17:35.000 unless in autumn, winter and spring. 380 00:17:35.100 --> 00:17:40.680 It's just like looking at the scientist scenarios coming true in front of our eyes. 381 00:17:41.100 --> 00:17:44.560 I thought a really telling quote where people are actually joining the dots 382 00:17:44.560 --> 00:17:48.560 between what they're seeing and what the scientists might be telling them might come. 383 00:17:49.240 --> 00:17:54.720 And as a result, we actually start to need to think about risk management in Australia's variable climate. 384 00:17:55.220 --> 00:17:58.220 So this is a classic quote I reckon from Australian Securities Commission. 385 00:17:58.680 --> 00:18:01.780 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 386 00:18:03.040 --> 00:18:06.560 I don't think anyone would deny that in terms of that domain. 387 00:18:06.740 --> 00:18:10.660 And in terms of climate, we actually have to start thinking in the same vein. 388 00:18:11.020 --> 00:18:15.260 Past climate is no longer a reliable indication of future climate. 389 00:18:15.380 --> 00:18:19.020 Our past experience of risk management in this Australian climate, 390 00:18:19.240 --> 00:18:21.800 has to start to take into account climate change. 391 00:18:22.020 --> 00:18:28.820 And over time, our past will become less and less relevant to the changes and the decisions we have to make 392 00:18:28.820 --> 00:18:30.460 in terms of climate risk management. 393 00:18:31.280 --> 00:18:36.000 Now in terms of food availability and similar things in terms of food systems. 394 00:18:36.020 --> 00:18:40.140 So climate change in the board is actually going to bring significant challenges 395 00:18:40.140 --> 00:18:44.220 in terms of supplying adequate quantity of food of different types. 396 00:18:45.060 --> 00:18:49.220 We're actually really lucky and have been for quite a long time in Australia to have adequate food. 397 00:18:49.240 --> 00:18:53.920 food for our population. It is not necessarily going to be the case in the future unless 398 00:18:53.920 --> 00:18:59.020 we take action. And for example, our climate change interacting with population growth. 399 00:18:59.880 --> 00:19:04.380 Most people probably don't know this, but our top population scenario for 2100 in Australia 400 00:19:04.380 --> 00:19:10.600 is 64 million people. It's tripling the size of places like Adelaide. That's not an Australia 401 00:19:10.600 --> 00:19:16.460 I want to live in, but that's what those scenarios have. You have three times the number of mouths 402 00:19:16.460 --> 00:19:20.680 to feed and you have climate change reducing your agricultural production and all of a 403 00:19:20.680 --> 00:19:26.500 sudden Australia, which is a gross exporter of various agricultural products, could become 404 00:19:26.500 --> 00:19:31.940 a net importer of agricultural products. The worst case scenario in this study was actually 405 00:19:31.940 --> 00:19:36.640 an importer to the same extent that we're currently an exporter. And that study actually 406 00:19:36.640 --> 00:19:40.760 indicated there was about a one in four chance that we'd become a net importer of wheat, 407 00:19:40.800 --> 00:19:46.180 of grain, which we're currently a gross exporter. And that grain is roughly about 12% 408 00:19:46.180 --> 00:19:46.440 of the total amount of grain that we're currently exporting. 409 00:19:46.460 --> 00:19:52.500 Of the traded grain internationally. And that's what actually keeps people in famines in Africa 410 00:19:52.500 --> 00:19:57.320 alive. That's the excess which we have that can actually come and feed about 60 million 411 00:19:57.320 --> 00:20:02.520 people around the world. We actually got lucky to have Penny Sackett in the audience and 412 00:20:03.060 --> 00:20:08.620 she hosted a report on food security in a changing world. And this was one of the key 413 00:20:08.620 --> 00:20:13.820 things that we actually focused on, the importance of Australia in terms of its global positioning 414 00:20:13.820 --> 00:20:14.200 of this. 415 00:20:15.080 --> 00:20:16.440 Now, it's not a big deal. It's not a big deal. It's not a big deal. It's not a big 416 00:20:16.440 --> 00:20:19.500 deal. It's not just a future thing. I mean, we're actually seeing this already. This 417 00:20:19.500 --> 00:20:24.880 actually was a graph coming from that report, from the PMSEC report. And what that shows 418 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:31.060 is already in the past we used to be an exporter, in this case of vegetables. That's this line 419 00:20:31.060 --> 00:20:36.800 here. And we exported more than we imported. Now, over the last decade, that's actually 420 00:20:36.800 --> 00:20:41.760 flipped. We're actually now importing more than we export. And the difference between 421 00:20:41.760 --> 00:20:46.160 the two is actually growing over time. So we've actually already started to see largely 422 00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:50.580 for climate reasons. This was the big impact of the decade-long drought. We're already 423 00:20:50.580 --> 00:20:57.100 seeing a situation where we're not providing adequate veggies for our current population. 424 00:20:57.720 --> 00:21:02.300 And this is a time when we're just realising we have to increase the intake of our vegetables 425 00:21:02.300 --> 00:21:05.640 for an adequate diet. It's not a really good picture. 426 00:21:06.200 --> 00:21:10.660 Now, there's also implications, as I said, for global food security because we do feed 427 00:21:10.660 --> 00:21:15.080 people across the globe. We're likely to see an increased variability. And that's really 428 00:21:15.080 --> 00:21:15.420 important. 429 00:21:16.160 --> 00:21:21.080 Right now, we actually have the FAO Food Price Index at an all-time high, record levels. 430 00:21:21.340 --> 00:21:27.860 So we already have food stress for poor people across the globe. And that's in part due to 431 00:21:27.860 --> 00:21:32.180 climate disturbances, climate change. We're also likely to see increased variability of 432 00:21:32.180 --> 00:21:36.700 supply. A really obvious one is bananas. You know, 75 per cent of our banana production 433 00:21:36.700 --> 00:21:42.920 on Australia removed by Cyclone Yasi. But also floods and droughts significantly impact 434 00:21:42.920 --> 00:21:45.140 on that reliability of supply. 435 00:21:45.140 --> 00:21:51.020 We're likely to see changes in source regions. So in South Australia, work by Uday and Peter 436 00:21:51.020 --> 00:21:57.680 Heyman shows how climate change could actually move essentially the risk associated with 437 00:21:57.680 --> 00:22:02.780 Goita's Line significantly south. So we could actually lose significant slabs of cropping 438 00:22:02.780 --> 00:22:11.240 country in that sort of area south of the Goita's Line. And so that's not an insignificant 439 00:22:11.240 --> 00:22:13.320 change that will happen in that region. 440 00:22:13.460 --> 00:22:14.400 Now, technology... 441 00:22:15.140 --> 00:22:20.600 Change, as assessed by those farmers, could help reduce that push south, but it's not 442 00:22:20.600 --> 00:22:21.900 likely to fully offset it. 443 00:22:22.440 --> 00:22:28.200 And lastly, we're likely to see changes in foods. So we're going to probably see more 444 00:22:28.200 --> 00:22:34.480 foods suited to climates of the future, like hotter, drier, more stressful climates. And 445 00:22:34.480 --> 00:22:38.280 so these are probably going to become part of our diet over the next several years. 446 00:22:38.720 --> 00:22:44.900 Now, it's not just food quantity, but it's also food quality. So one of the consequences 447 00:22:44.900 --> 00:22:49.140 of increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere is lower protein content 448 00:22:49.140 --> 00:22:54.300 in grains. But if you're a meat eater in Australia, that's probably not a big issue. But if you're 449 00:22:54.300 --> 00:22:59.480 a poor person in Africa who eats Australian wheat when they're desperate for food, that 450 00:22:59.480 --> 00:23:03.660 is probably an issue because they're actually already protein limited. It also could be 451 00:23:03.660 --> 00:23:06.980 an issue if you're actually a strict vegetarian in Australia and you don't look after the 452 00:23:06.980 --> 00:23:08.340 protein content of your diet. 453 00:23:08.780 --> 00:23:12.860 In terms of food hygiene, we know through very strong empirical evidence, including 454 00:23:12.860 --> 00:23:14.880 that collected here in Adelaide, that there's a significant increase in protein content. 455 00:23:14.900 --> 00:23:21.040 That key organisms like salmonella and campylobacter actually increase the risk of food hygiene 456 00:23:21.620 --> 00:23:26.380 under hot conditions. Some things like rotavirus has actually decreased their incidence under 457 00:23:26.380 --> 00:23:32.820 hot conditions. Gastroenteritis, which is the consequence of those infections of your 458 00:23:32.820 --> 00:23:39.380 food, they're likely to increase at the rate of about 2.5% per degree Celsius. We currently 459 00:23:39.380 --> 00:23:44.880 experience something like about 54,000 cases of gastroenteritis a day in Australia. And 460 00:23:44.880 --> 00:23:47.080 the number of cases of gastroenteritis in Australia is about 1.5% per day. The climate change 461 00:23:47.080 --> 00:23:52.820 load on this is probably about 1,500 additional cases of that per day across the Australian 462 00:23:52.820 --> 00:23:53.160 population. 463 00:23:54.160 --> 00:23:59.840 Climate is related to wastage and loss, both before productive activities on farms and 464 00:23:59.840 --> 00:24:04.060 after productive activities on farms, such as grain storage. And climate change is going 465 00:24:04.060 --> 00:24:09.000 to make that more significant, probably increasing our loss factors. Climate already impacts 466 00:24:09.000 --> 00:24:13.820 on the appearance of various products, such as sunburn on fruit. And that, again, is likely 467 00:24:13.820 --> 00:24:14.860 to increase our loss. And that's going to be a major factor in the future. And that's 468 00:24:14.880 --> 00:24:41.940 also a huge factor in sales 469 00:24:41.940 --> 00:24:46.240 We've seen some significant adaptations from that industry already to deal with these things. 470 00:24:47.280 --> 00:24:52.480 Now, of course, adaptation is the action we can take in response to those threats. 471 00:24:52.800 --> 00:24:58.860 Essentially, adaptation, to put it really simply, adaptation is changing what we do to get what we want. 472 00:24:59.900 --> 00:25:02.500 It's not foreign. We all do that all the time. 473 00:25:02.580 --> 00:25:04.840 Businesses do it all the time. Governments do it all the time. 474 00:25:05.340 --> 00:25:10.980 We have obviously started to frame out what some of the issues associated with climate change, 475 00:25:10.980 --> 00:25:12.760 the costs of climate change would be. 476 00:25:12.820 --> 00:25:16.900 We're also starting to frame out the solutions, potential solutions to climate change. 477 00:25:17.280 --> 00:25:19.940 So Chris Stokes and I produced this book last year, 478 00:25:20.040 --> 00:25:24.080 which brought together scientists and others from industry right across Australia 479 00:25:24.080 --> 00:25:26.760 for every sector, significant sector of Australian agriculture, 480 00:25:27.100 --> 00:25:30.300 to scope out what the adaptation options are for agriculture. 481 00:25:30.600 --> 00:25:35.540 And those operate at different levels, farm level, community, regional level and government level. 482 00:25:35.860 --> 00:25:40.540 And so what we're trying to do in CSIRO with colleagues such as Sadi from South Australia 483 00:25:40.540 --> 00:25:40.960 is... 484 00:25:40.980 --> 00:25:45.600 ...is we're starting to build the information and the capacity for people to make better adaptation decisions 485 00:25:46.780 --> 00:25:48.600 and effective adaptation decisions. 486 00:25:48.840 --> 00:25:53.860 And we're starting to identify and develop the options, the tools that people actually need 487 00:25:53.860 --> 00:25:57.580 to implement those things to adjust for climate change. 488 00:25:58.200 --> 00:26:03.940 Now, the standard sort of approach with science is give us more money, we'll produce more information. 489 00:26:04.060 --> 00:26:06.340 And in fact, it's a flawed view. 490 00:26:06.800 --> 00:26:09.240 Information doesn't have equal value. 491 00:26:09.420 --> 00:26:10.640 And these are some of the reasons. 492 00:26:10.680 --> 00:26:10.960 Why? 493 00:26:10.960 --> 00:26:15.280 why information does not, just automatically more information does not equal better decisions. 494 00:26:15.980 --> 00:26:21.440 It may not be relevant, it may not be appropriate or reliable or trusted, it may not be sourced 495 00:26:21.440 --> 00:26:26.320 legitimately, so through appropriate social processes, it may conflict with user values 496 00:26:26.320 --> 00:26:31.480 or interests, it may be unavailable or untimely, so it's too late for a decision, or it may 497 00:26:31.480 --> 00:26:35.680 be poorly communicated, and Amanda's going to talk later a little bit about the communication 498 00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:41.100 side of this. And fundamentally, it comes down the bottom to whose decision is better, 499 00:26:41.200 --> 00:26:46.680 and how do you actually start to frame a better decision in an uncertain environment, where 500 00:26:46.680 --> 00:26:51.660 there's lots and lots of different disparate goals that can be implemented. Certainly it's 501 00:26:51.660 --> 00:26:56.400 not my job as a scientist to actually say whose decision is better, or to provide criteria 502 00:26:56.400 --> 00:27:01.300 for better decisions, it's actually up to the individual decision makers to start to 503 00:27:01.300 --> 00:27:05.660 pull together those bits of information that they can then piece together and make a decision 504 00:27:05.680 --> 00:27:10.660 for their particular circumstances. It's my responsibility as a scientist to listen 505 00:27:10.660 --> 00:27:15.360 to them, to understand what their needs are, to perhaps prompt them a little bit about 506 00:27:15.360 --> 00:27:20.620 stretching the envelope about options, and to also put in place some of the really strategic 507 00:27:20.620 --> 00:27:25.600 science that can deliver things five years, ten years, twenty years down the track, which 508 00:27:25.600 --> 00:27:31.400 otherwise wouldn't get implemented. And because of this, that's why in my group we actually 509 00:27:31.400 --> 00:27:34.560 adopt a co-research approach, it's not just about the scientists, it's actually about 510 00:27:34.560 --> 00:27:35.660 the scientists and our research. And I think it's a really important thing to do, and I 511 00:27:37.640 --> 00:27:46.040 hope this conversation has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation 512 00:27:46.040 --> 00:27:46.200 has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has been read by a lot 513 00:27:46.200 --> 00:27:50.160 of you this afternoon so this conversation has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so 514 00:27:50.160 --> 00:27:50.280 this conversation has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has 515 00:27:50.280 --> 00:27:50.520 been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has been read by a lot of 516 00:27:50.520 --> 00:27:51.100 this conversation has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has 517 00:27:51.100 --> 00:27:54.040 been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has been read by a lot of 518 00:27:54.040 --> 00:27:55.840 you this afternoon so this conversation has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so 519 00:27:55.840 --> 00:28:02.820 this conversation has been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has 520 00:28:02.820 --> 00:28:05.460 been read by a lot of you this afternoon so this conversation has been read by a lot of 521 00:28:05.460 --> 00:28:06.340 to deal with uncertainty. 522 00:28:06.980 --> 00:28:10.120 So one of the things that might be a little bit contentious 523 00:28:10.120 --> 00:28:12.820 is if you actually start thinking about this as an ideology. 524 00:28:13.100 --> 00:28:15.820 So a simple definition of an ideology 525 00:28:15.820 --> 00:28:18.580 is a system of ideas and ideals. 526 00:28:19.040 --> 00:28:21.520 So it's not only about your ideas, 527 00:28:21.660 --> 00:28:23.380 but actually how they fit into what you want, 528 00:28:24.020 --> 00:28:26.380 that form the basis of policy and action. 529 00:28:26.960 --> 00:28:28.040 Now, I'm just proposing here, 530 00:28:28.120 --> 00:28:31.820 perhaps we actually need to start developing an ideology of adaptation 531 00:28:31.820 --> 00:28:33.900 in this harsh, brown land of ours 532 00:28:33.900 --> 00:28:35.600 rather than one of denial. 533 00:28:36.460 --> 00:28:39.240 One that's positive, that takes us forward, 534 00:28:39.380 --> 00:28:42.300 that ultimately can change people's values... 535 00:28:44.440 --> 00:28:45.920 Technology, here we come. 536 00:28:46.600 --> 00:28:48.160 ..that can actually change people's values 537 00:28:48.160 --> 00:28:51.800 as we implement these things from a bottom-up process. 538 00:28:53.500 --> 00:28:55.180 And I think that's actually something 539 00:28:55.180 --> 00:28:57.400 that really could be constructive in this environment 540 00:28:57.400 --> 00:29:01.380 where their ability to take this discussion and debate forward 541 00:29:01.380 --> 00:29:02.620 is actually hampered 542 00:29:02.620 --> 00:29:05.860 by these conflicts between what people perceive 543 00:29:05.860 --> 00:29:09.140 as problems associated with carbon emission reduction 544 00:29:09.140 --> 00:29:12.540 and put it in the basis of starting to see the positives 545 00:29:12.540 --> 00:29:14.300 from climate change adaptation. 546 00:29:15.280 --> 00:29:16.380 The key thing here is actually, 547 00:29:16.500 --> 00:29:18.140 this is actually not about... 548 00:29:18.140 --> 00:29:20.540 This is fundamentally about practical activity. 549 00:29:20.820 --> 00:29:22.440 It's a pragmatic view of things. 550 00:29:22.680 --> 00:29:24.760 It's actually saying that recognising, 551 00:29:24.780 --> 00:29:26.980 adapting to the change we see and foresee, 552 00:29:27.220 --> 00:29:29.940 even given uncertainties associated with the science, 553 00:29:30.100 --> 00:29:32.440 is far, far better than the alternative. 554 00:29:33.200 --> 00:29:37.600 The alternative is not adapting to the climate changes that we're seeing. 555 00:29:37.860 --> 00:29:41.560 Saying that these changes that I just showed you in South Australia 556 00:29:41.560 --> 00:29:44.240 somehow magically are going to turn around 557 00:29:44.240 --> 00:29:45.580 from going up and up and up, 558 00:29:45.680 --> 00:29:46.760 and they're going to loop over. 559 00:29:47.580 --> 00:29:49.720 There's no process that we understand 560 00:29:49.720 --> 00:29:51.620 that's going to tell us that that's going to happen. 561 00:29:52.300 --> 00:29:53.480 So what's the alternative? 562 00:29:53.600 --> 00:29:55.460 Is the either adapt to those changes 563 00:29:55.460 --> 00:29:58.380 and, if possible, take advantage of them, 564 00:29:58.440 --> 00:30:00.820 at least we can reduce the risks associated with them. 565 00:30:00.900 --> 00:30:02.300 The alternative is actually 566 00:30:02.300 --> 00:30:04.740 keep our practices lagging further and further 567 00:30:04.740 --> 00:30:06.760 behind the environment that we live in. 568 00:30:06.960 --> 00:30:09.600 And that will make us increasingly unable 569 00:30:09.600 --> 00:30:11.640 to maintain our natural resources, 570 00:30:11.720 --> 00:30:13.560 to maintain good livings for farmers, 571 00:30:14.360 --> 00:30:16.060 to actually maintain our export industries. 572 00:30:16.780 --> 00:30:19.460 I just don't see this as a viable option. 573 00:30:19.540 --> 00:30:22.020 We have to adapt, and we have to do it smart. 574 00:30:23.480 --> 00:30:25.520 Now, ideas have to be matched with actions, 575 00:30:25.680 --> 00:30:29.320 and these are just some of the things that I, in my role in CSIRO, 576 00:30:29.460 --> 00:30:32.020 and with colleagues throughout Australia and the world, 577 00:30:32.300 --> 00:30:32.920 are trying to do. 578 00:30:33.860 --> 00:30:36.160 Fundamentally, I'm trying to actually support people 579 00:30:36.160 --> 00:30:38.000 right across the food system, 580 00:30:38.140 --> 00:30:40.000 farmers through the government people, 581 00:30:40.280 --> 00:30:42.900 to actually co-develop a set of better 582 00:30:42.900 --> 00:30:45.480 and innovative adaptation options, 583 00:30:45.620 --> 00:30:48.160 those tools and those processes and the information 584 00:30:48.160 --> 00:30:50.940 that they can use in their own context, 585 00:30:51.020 --> 00:30:52.440 their own decision-making framework. 586 00:30:53.100 --> 00:30:55.100 I will never be able to predict the way 587 00:30:55.100 --> 00:30:56.800 people are going to use these things, 588 00:30:56.860 --> 00:30:57.760 that we can provide them, 589 00:30:57.920 --> 00:31:00.920 but we can actually make a fair judgement call 590 00:31:00.920 --> 00:31:02.280 and let them combine those things. 591 00:31:02.280 --> 00:31:04.340 Those are little pieces together in their own way. 592 00:31:05.040 --> 00:31:08.400 We're also interested in assessing adaptive capacity 593 00:31:08.400 --> 00:31:09.440 and then building it. 594 00:31:09.820 --> 00:31:12.740 So actually starting to identify where that's strong 595 00:31:12.740 --> 00:31:13.420 and where it's not, 596 00:31:13.540 --> 00:31:16.300 and actually working out in a very, very fine-tuned way 597 00:31:16.300 --> 00:31:18.240 how to improve that adaptive capacity. 598 00:31:18.380 --> 00:31:20.340 We've already done this, and we're world leaders at that. 599 00:31:20.640 --> 00:31:22.680 Critical parts of that adaptive capacity 600 00:31:22.680 --> 00:31:24.300 are the human and social components. 601 00:31:25.280 --> 00:31:28.840 It's what we know and how we link that to other people. 602 00:31:28.900 --> 00:31:30.760 We've heard some great presentations on networks 603 00:31:30.760 --> 00:31:32.260 here in this festival. 604 00:31:32.280 --> 00:31:36.700 And that social capacity is actually fundamental. 605 00:31:37.120 --> 00:31:39.380 And so I actually think we need to put a lot of effort 606 00:31:39.380 --> 00:31:41.840 into thinking about the networks and communication paths 607 00:31:41.840 --> 00:31:43.820 that we're going to actually implement 608 00:31:43.820 --> 00:31:46.140 and increasingly implement over the next decades. 609 00:31:46.480 --> 00:31:50.020 So the DoTank talk by Tim Jarvis and co, 610 00:31:50.060 --> 00:31:52.760 his stand-in the other day, was an example of that. 611 00:31:53.160 --> 00:31:54.680 Starting to actually pool, 612 00:31:54.900 --> 00:31:59.000 have ways of rigorously pooling those ideas 613 00:31:59.000 --> 00:32:00.460 and giving people access to those. 614 00:32:01.240 --> 00:32:02.060 Critically, it's... 615 00:32:02.060 --> 00:32:03.760 It's about informing policy development, 616 00:32:03.980 --> 00:32:05.600 effective policy development as well. 617 00:32:05.700 --> 00:32:08.500 So the lower-level adaptation activities 618 00:32:08.500 --> 00:32:10.820 can actually happen in a supportive environment 619 00:32:10.820 --> 00:32:12.560 where we actually have government 620 00:32:12.560 --> 00:32:14.840 understanding the challenge of adaptation 621 00:32:14.840 --> 00:32:17.100 and developing an adaptation policy. 622 00:32:17.280 --> 00:32:17.900 Because at the moment, 623 00:32:17.940 --> 00:32:20.180 we don't have a strong one here in Australia. 624 00:32:20.740 --> 00:32:23.700 And lastly, we need to actually be adaptive ourselves. 625 00:32:23.820 --> 00:32:26.440 We need to monitor what works, what doesn't, and why 626 00:32:27.080 --> 00:32:29.960 so we can actually increasingly deal with the surprises 627 00:32:29.960 --> 00:32:31.760 that the future's going to bring us. 628 00:32:31.760 --> 00:32:33.100 And it's not just about climate change. 629 00:32:33.200 --> 00:32:36.660 It's about climate change plus all of those other things 630 00:32:36.660 --> 00:32:38.040 which are happening in the world. 631 00:32:38.160 --> 00:32:39.940 And that's a really significant challenge 632 00:32:39.940 --> 00:32:42.340 and it's one we only can deal with together. 633 00:32:42.500 --> 00:32:43.160 Thank you. 634 00:32:44.740 --> 00:32:45.220 APPLAUSE 635 00:32:52.840 --> 00:32:54.340 Thanks very much, Mark. 636 00:32:54.480 --> 00:32:55.700 An outstanding talk. 637 00:32:55.940 --> 00:32:58.360 I'm sure we're all delighted with it. 638 00:32:58.740 --> 00:33:00.320 We're going to move straight on now 639 00:33:00.320 --> 00:33:01.740 to the next... 640 00:33:01.760 --> 00:33:02.380 our next speaker. 641 00:33:02.540 --> 00:33:05.280 And then we'll have the question period following that. 642 00:33:05.420 --> 00:33:09.000 So hold those wonderful questions in your mind. 643 00:33:10.300 --> 00:33:13.060 I'd now like to introduce Amanda McKenzie, 644 00:33:13.180 --> 00:33:16.220 who's co-founder of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition 645 00:33:16.220 --> 00:33:18.740 and the Australian Climate Change Education Network 646 00:33:18.740 --> 00:33:22.440 and named Banksia Joint Young Environmentalist of the Year. 647 00:33:22.860 --> 00:33:26.800 She is a passionate sustainability leader 648 00:33:26.800 --> 00:33:28.100 and social entrepreneur. 649 00:33:28.540 --> 00:33:30.980 She's led three Australian youth groups, 650 00:33:31.760 --> 00:33:32.660 including the Youth Delegations 651 00:33:32.660 --> 00:33:34.460 to the United Nations Climate Change Conference 652 00:33:34.460 --> 00:33:37.060 and has participated as a youth advisor 653 00:33:37.060 --> 00:33:40.560 to the Australian Government's delegation in 2007. 654 00:33:40.860 --> 00:33:41.600 Welcome, Amanda. 655 00:33:42.560 --> 00:33:43.040 APPLAUSE 656 00:33:47.560 --> 00:33:49.100 Thanks, Bob, for that introduction. 657 00:33:49.840 --> 00:33:51.940 What I wanted to talk to you about today 658 00:33:51.940 --> 00:33:53.640 was in this Festival of Ideas, 659 00:33:53.740 --> 00:33:56.080 it doesn't really matter how good your idea is 660 00:33:56.080 --> 00:33:58.200 if you can't get it communicated to other people. 661 00:33:58.580 --> 00:34:01.740 So what I wanted to talk about is how some of the ideas... 662 00:34:01.760 --> 00:34:03.080 some of the ideas that Mark's put to us, 663 00:34:03.200 --> 00:34:05.080 why it is that in the current debate 664 00:34:05.080 --> 00:34:07.060 some of those ideas aren't cutting across 665 00:34:07.060 --> 00:34:09.780 and how we can think about how we can better communicate 666 00:34:09.780 --> 00:34:10.620 some of those ideas. 667 00:34:11.000 --> 00:34:14.060 So I wanted to just start with how the climate change debate 668 00:34:14.060 --> 00:34:15.700 in Australia could be characterised. 669 00:34:16.280 --> 00:34:17.940 The first point is to say 670 00:34:17.940 --> 00:34:20.620 it centres around trust and integrity. 671 00:34:20.940 --> 00:34:23.660 And this is often caught up in whether people trust 672 00:34:23.660 --> 00:34:25.900 and think that the government itself has integrity. 673 00:34:26.220 --> 00:34:27.680 And over the last few years, 674 00:34:27.680 --> 00:34:29.680 the climate debate has just become increasingly 675 00:34:29.680 --> 00:34:31.460 and increasingly politicised. 676 00:34:31.760 --> 00:34:33.660 And it appears that the major parties 677 00:34:33.660 --> 00:34:35.500 are highly divided on this issue. 678 00:34:36.180 --> 00:34:38.000 And as with any complex policy issue 679 00:34:38.000 --> 00:34:39.340 and complex scientific issue, 680 00:34:39.520 --> 00:34:41.300 where there isn't bipartisan agreement, 681 00:34:42.120 --> 00:34:43.700 it tends to mean that the public... 682 00:34:43.700 --> 00:34:45.300 there's discord in the public. 683 00:34:45.520 --> 00:34:47.720 And it's not necessarily the public doesn't want action, 684 00:34:47.840 --> 00:34:50.080 it's that the public doesn't really know what to think 685 00:34:50.080 --> 00:34:52.160 and doesn't know what to make of all of these issues. 686 00:34:52.420 --> 00:34:55.740 But it's interesting that actually the major parties agree on a lot. 687 00:34:56.200 --> 00:35:00.520 Firstly, that despite rumblings in both parties, actually, 688 00:35:00.560 --> 00:35:01.740 both parties agree on a lot. 689 00:35:01.740 --> 00:35:03.200 Both parties agree that climate change is happening 690 00:35:03.200 --> 00:35:04.000 and needs to be addressed. 691 00:35:04.360 --> 00:35:07.860 Both parties have agreed that a 5% reduction target 692 00:35:07.860 --> 00:35:09.580 is the ambition that they've agreed to. 693 00:35:09.720 --> 00:35:13.400 And both claim to support some sort of market mechanisms 694 00:35:13.400 --> 00:35:15.760 to achieve that 5% target. 695 00:35:15.980 --> 00:35:18.780 And inherently, a 5% target will have some sort of cost, 696 00:35:18.960 --> 00:35:20.320 which you'd imagine would be embodied 697 00:35:20.320 --> 00:35:22.560 within that so-called market mechanism. 698 00:35:22.960 --> 00:35:25.680 So it's interesting that there is quite a lot of agreement, 699 00:35:25.800 --> 00:35:27.480 but the way that it comes across in the media 700 00:35:27.480 --> 00:35:29.820 is that there seems to be almost no agreement. 701 00:35:30.500 --> 00:35:30.980 So... 702 00:35:30.980 --> 00:35:31.720 So... 703 00:35:31.720 --> 00:35:34.040 It shouldn't be a conservative or a progressive issue. 704 00:35:34.200 --> 00:35:36.340 Climate change is something that will affect all of us. 705 00:35:36.540 --> 00:35:40.260 And it is interesting that I think the conservative agenda 706 00:35:40.260 --> 00:35:42.960 has been taken up by the radical right wing 707 00:35:42.960 --> 00:35:46.300 and been made something that is an issue for them 708 00:35:46.300 --> 00:35:48.540 because it doesn't necessarily accord with their world view. 709 00:35:48.900 --> 00:35:51.320 But that does not to say that it's not something 710 00:35:51.320 --> 00:35:53.180 that is highly relevant to conservatives 711 00:35:53.180 --> 00:35:56.480 and conservatives all around the world have been pursuing 712 00:35:56.480 --> 00:35:58.680 in very good ways. 713 00:35:58.720 --> 00:36:00.560 You just have to look at the British government to see that. 714 00:36:02.120 --> 00:36:02.560 So... 715 00:36:02.560 --> 00:36:04.980 But climate change is a core issue of trust 716 00:36:04.980 --> 00:36:07.600 and that's how the government is being assessed by the media 717 00:36:07.600 --> 00:36:09.240 as to whether they... 718 00:36:09.880 --> 00:36:12.360 Julia Gillard in particular, whether she is competent 719 00:36:12.360 --> 00:36:14.740 and whether she's going to get the climate change policy through. 720 00:36:15.000 --> 00:36:17.040 But the politicised nature of the debate 721 00:36:17.040 --> 00:36:19.460 tends to mean that people are reluctant to speak out. 722 00:36:19.820 --> 00:36:21.080 Particularly the business community 723 00:36:21.080 --> 00:36:22.920 that may have been a little bit more vocal 724 00:36:22.920 --> 00:36:26.360 around the 2009 debate with the CPRS 725 00:36:26.360 --> 00:36:28.060 has almost shut up entirely 726 00:36:28.060 --> 00:36:30.040 because they're too scared to look like 727 00:36:30.040 --> 00:36:31.560 they're on one side of politics or the other, 728 00:36:31.580 --> 00:36:31.700 so they're not going to be able to speak out. 729 00:36:31.700 --> 00:36:32.960 So I think that's the downside and the implications for them. 730 00:36:33.120 --> 00:36:34.600 But I think it runs through the community. 731 00:36:34.760 --> 00:36:35.540 I think people... 732 00:36:35.960 --> 00:36:39.280 When you see in the media what appears to be a vitriolic debate 733 00:36:39.680 --> 00:36:42.860 and particularly when you look at some of the anti-carbon tax rallies 734 00:36:42.860 --> 00:36:43.960 which seem very nasty, 735 00:36:44.160 --> 00:36:46.300 I think a lot of the average Australians think, 736 00:36:46.400 --> 00:36:47.740 oh, well, I don't want to be part of that debate. 737 00:36:47.820 --> 00:36:48.560 I feel a bit... 738 00:36:49.020 --> 00:36:51.740 It's not really me and it's not really the space that I want to be in. 739 00:36:52.020 --> 00:36:54.140 But I'm now working at the Climate Commission 740 00:36:54.140 --> 00:36:56.500 and I can tell you that we travel around Australia consistently 741 00:36:57.060 --> 00:36:59.520 going to regional areas and cities and all over the place. 742 00:37:00.000 --> 00:37:01.520 And lo and behold, Australians, 743 00:37:01.700 --> 00:37:02.680 are a really respectful bunch. 744 00:37:02.940 --> 00:37:05.060 They're a kind and generous and caring bunch. 745 00:37:05.360 --> 00:37:08.740 And overall, it's only the 0.001% 746 00:37:08.740 --> 00:37:11.020 that tend to be very aggressive in their opinions. 747 00:37:11.280 --> 00:37:13.680 Most people are very happy to listen to anyone's opinion 748 00:37:13.680 --> 00:37:16.320 and to hear it there. 749 00:37:16.500 --> 00:37:19.720 So I think that it's about trust and integrity. 750 00:37:19.880 --> 00:37:21.440 It's partisan and it's negative. 751 00:37:22.200 --> 00:37:23.880 It's also that the... 752 00:37:23.880 --> 00:37:26.180 And Penny Sackett actually said this the other night, 753 00:37:26.320 --> 00:37:29.120 that policy and science have been conflated. 754 00:37:29.240 --> 00:37:31.580 So it's a shame that with the politicised nature, 755 00:37:31.580 --> 00:37:35.060 the debate, that it's politicised the science around climate change. 756 00:37:35.300 --> 00:37:37.080 And there's no better example of that 757 00:37:37.080 --> 00:37:39.760 than Andrew Bolt's program this morning on Channel 10, 758 00:37:39.940 --> 00:37:42.820 which he brought together three climate scientists, 759 00:37:43.060 --> 00:37:45.720 none of which were actively participating in the field, 760 00:37:45.820 --> 00:37:49.680 to talk about whether the climate science had been, in fact, decided. 761 00:37:50.000 --> 00:37:52.180 And they each made the case that, in fact, it hadn't. 762 00:37:53.020 --> 00:37:55.700 So it was interesting and worrying, I think, 763 00:37:55.700 --> 00:37:57.780 that one of the major media institutions 764 00:37:57.780 --> 00:38:00.620 can consistently be putting that sort of dialogue 765 00:38:00.620 --> 00:38:01.980 on national television. 766 00:38:02.320 --> 00:38:04.820 Of course, everyone's welcome to their opinion in a democracy, 767 00:38:05.080 --> 00:38:07.480 but there's obviously got to be some point 768 00:38:07.480 --> 00:38:10.840 in which the majority opinion facilitates action. 769 00:38:11.020 --> 00:38:12.300 You just have to think about vaccinations. 770 00:38:12.860 --> 00:38:14.840 Sure, there's a group of people, a minority, 771 00:38:14.920 --> 00:38:17.440 that say we shouldn't vaccinate our children and it's bad for them. 772 00:38:17.800 --> 00:38:20.140 But the majority of us think that it's a good idea 773 00:38:20.140 --> 00:38:22.580 and we would think it was abhorrent 774 00:38:22.580 --> 00:38:25.380 to leave generations of children not vaccinated 775 00:38:25.380 --> 00:38:28.640 for the sake of finally getting a consensus on the argument. 776 00:38:29.300 --> 00:38:30.600 Similarly with climate change, 777 00:38:30.620 --> 00:38:32.360 we just need to get on with it, 778 00:38:32.420 --> 00:38:34.800 despite that there's a minority opinion that doesn't exist, 779 00:38:35.060 --> 00:38:38.080 sorry, that disagrees. 780 00:38:39.100 --> 00:38:40.140 What's interesting, though, 781 00:38:40.160 --> 00:38:42.640 is that if this is the character of the debate, 782 00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:45.840 the story of inaction is actually the most powerful. 783 00:38:47.100 --> 00:38:48.440 This is a story of inaction. 784 00:38:48.780 --> 00:38:51.160 So, firstly, climate change isn't happening. 785 00:38:51.380 --> 00:38:53.620 If it is happening, it's not caused by humans. 786 00:38:53.860 --> 00:38:56.160 If it is happening and if it is caused by humans, 787 00:38:56.340 --> 00:38:58.300 we can't do anything about it in Australia 788 00:38:58.300 --> 00:39:00.120 because we're only a small percentage 789 00:39:00.120 --> 00:39:02.540 of global emissions and we can't make a difference. 790 00:39:02.620 --> 00:39:03.860 It's unfair for us to act. 791 00:39:04.300 --> 00:39:06.080 Who has heard this story before? 792 00:39:07.100 --> 00:39:09.640 And who thinks that without saying this, 793 00:39:09.680 --> 00:39:10.800 you could probably recite it? 794 00:39:12.300 --> 00:39:14.880 You just have to contrast that to the story of action, 795 00:39:15.020 --> 00:39:18.220 which I'm sure everyone would probably have a different way of putting. 796 00:39:18.540 --> 00:39:19.800 There's not a concise way, 797 00:39:19.900 --> 00:39:21.340 but this has been distilled systematically 798 00:39:21.880 --> 00:39:23.620 by the proponents of inaction 799 00:39:24.180 --> 00:39:26.020 to make a concise and easy to understand story. 800 00:39:26.700 --> 00:39:29.000 Interestingly for us, none of it is factual. 801 00:39:29.000 --> 00:39:31.900 None of these propositions is based on fact. 802 00:39:32.220 --> 00:39:34.600 And I just wanted to touch on why that is 803 00:39:34.600 --> 00:39:36.500 and Mark has gone into it already. 804 00:39:36.780 --> 00:39:39.500 But as we've seen in his presentation from some 805 00:39:39.500 --> 00:39:40.800 of those graphs, the Earth is warming. 806 00:39:41.160 --> 00:39:44.060 We can see this in the air surface temperature records 807 00:39:44.060 --> 00:39:44.720 in the ocean. 808 00:39:44.880 --> 00:39:47.160 We can see it in the impacts that it has 809 00:39:47.160 --> 00:39:49.440 on glaciers and other ice bodies. 810 00:39:49.720 --> 00:39:51.600 And that's not predictions. 811 00:39:51.740 --> 00:39:52.680 That's not modelling. 812 00:39:52.940 --> 00:39:55.180 That's just observed evidence by scientists. 813 00:39:55.380 --> 00:39:57.900 We trust scientists to observe stuff all the time. 814 00:39:57.900 --> 00:40:01.320 We trust doctors to observe whether we have cancer or not. 815 00:40:01.600 --> 00:40:04.340 We accept so many observations in science. 816 00:40:04.520 --> 00:40:07.020 And generally, when we look at some of those weather graphs 817 00:40:07.020 --> 00:40:08.480 about what the weather is going to be tomorrow, 818 00:40:08.700 --> 00:40:11.460 we trust that on the basis of a range of observations. 819 00:40:11.840 --> 00:40:14.540 So similarly, on the basis of a range of observations, 820 00:40:14.640 --> 00:40:15.820 the world is definitely warming. 821 00:40:16.620 --> 00:40:18.360 Secondly, so that's the first proposition. 822 00:40:20.340 --> 00:40:23.660 The second proposition is that climate change is actually caused by humans. 823 00:40:23.760 --> 00:40:27.500 And I'm sure most of you in this room are probably of the view that that's true. 824 00:40:27.500 --> 00:40:31.040 I just wanted to show you one graph that I think is powerful in doing that. 825 00:40:31.120 --> 00:40:32.220 Oh, sorry, the next one. 826 00:40:32.480 --> 00:40:36.960 So this is the period of 1900 to 2000, so a 100-year period. 827 00:40:37.360 --> 00:40:42.760 And this is, you often hear that if the case for inaction, 828 00:40:42.900 --> 00:40:43.940 that it's actually volcanoes 829 00:40:43.940 --> 00:40:46.980 or it's solar radiation that's causing warming. 830 00:40:47.280 --> 00:40:49.520 Well, let's look at the modelling over that period 831 00:40:50.120 --> 00:40:52.760 of what the temperature would have been over that 100 years 832 00:40:52.760 --> 00:40:55.120 if it was just volcanoes and solar radiation. 833 00:40:56.840 --> 00:40:57.480 That's the right answer. 834 00:40:57.500 --> 00:40:57.880 That's a rough line. 835 00:40:58.960 --> 00:41:02.020 Then if we add human greenhouse gas emissions 836 00:41:02.580 --> 00:41:07.140 and we model it over that period with the solar radiation and the volcanoes as well, 837 00:41:08.320 --> 00:41:09.820 this is the line that you'd expect. 838 00:41:10.720 --> 00:41:14.020 Now, the good thing we have is we have actually been through this 100-year period, 839 00:41:14.120 --> 00:41:16.360 so in addition to the modelling, we have the observed evidence. 840 00:41:16.940 --> 00:41:18.620 And this is the line of observed evidence. 841 00:41:19.640 --> 00:41:22.080 So consistently, you've seen this sort of thing, 842 00:41:22.140 --> 00:41:24.640 you've seen many things in the media as well as from the scientists. 843 00:41:25.640 --> 00:41:27.180 And for a layperson, 844 00:41:27.180 --> 00:41:29.760 you often hear about the scientific uncertainty, 845 00:41:30.000 --> 00:41:33.600 but of course, scientific uncertainty exists in every sort of realm of science. 846 00:41:33.720 --> 00:41:37.580 But for a layperson, a 95% certainty of science is certainly enough 847 00:41:37.580 --> 00:41:40.440 from a risk management proposition to take action. 848 00:41:40.660 --> 00:41:42.940 And so I'd say that for a layperson, 849 00:41:43.040 --> 00:41:47.460 climate change is certainly caused by carbon dioxide. 850 00:41:48.260 --> 00:41:51.460 The next point was that the world isn't moving on this issue 851 00:41:52.320 --> 00:41:54.540 and that therefore Australia shouldn't act, 852 00:41:54.600 --> 00:41:55.520 and Australia isn't important. 853 00:41:55.520 --> 00:41:59.980 But of course, Australia is one of the top 20 emitters of greenhouse gases. 854 00:42:00.360 --> 00:42:05.920 We've got 180 countries that are behind us that are smaller emitters, 855 00:42:06.000 --> 00:42:08.860 and just about a lot of them have a bigger population than we do 856 00:42:08.860 --> 00:42:12.240 because of course we're one of the top emitters in terms of our per capita. 857 00:42:12.800 --> 00:42:15.200 And you just have to look at some of our trading partners 858 00:42:15.200 --> 00:42:18.440 or some of our neighbours to see some of the action on climate change. 859 00:42:18.660 --> 00:42:21.060 And a lot of these countries aren't necessarily motivated 860 00:42:21.060 --> 00:42:23.140 by the moral proposition of climate change, 861 00:42:23.220 --> 00:42:25.500 they're motivated by the opportunities that are being created, 862 00:42:25.500 --> 00:42:26.340 and they're motivated by the opportunities that exist in clean energy. 863 00:42:26.700 --> 00:42:28.900 So that might be China, for instance, 864 00:42:29.180 --> 00:42:31.920 is introducing a pilot emissions trading scheme, 865 00:42:32.080 --> 00:42:33.700 which is maybe small for them, 866 00:42:33.820 --> 00:42:37.500 but when it covers six cities it will cover 250 million people, 867 00:42:37.700 --> 00:42:40.580 which they're planning to do by 2015. 868 00:42:41.460 --> 00:42:42.920 And you look at the US, 869 00:42:43.100 --> 00:42:45.380 you hear that the US nationally isn't doing anything, 870 00:42:45.480 --> 00:42:46.720 and certainly they're not doing enough. 871 00:42:46.880 --> 00:42:49.340 But you look at California, the eighth biggest economy in the world, 872 00:42:49.440 --> 00:42:52.600 the only bright spot in that economy is clean energy, 873 00:42:52.780 --> 00:42:55.400 and they'll be introduced in an emissions trading scheme in a few years. 874 00:42:55.500 --> 00:42:58.700 And of course the EU has been acting on this for a number of years, 875 00:42:58.800 --> 00:43:03.560 and Britain is one of the leaders with a 50% reduction target by 2027. 876 00:43:04.620 --> 00:43:07.480 But it's interesting that despite all this factual information, 877 00:43:07.780 --> 00:43:11.920 that powerful story of inaction continues to be something that everyone understands. 878 00:43:12.160 --> 00:43:13.340 It's simple, it's concrete, 879 00:43:14.160 --> 00:43:16.840 and it says a basic emotional story, 880 00:43:17.000 --> 00:43:20.100 that we don't have a problem, but even if we do, 881 00:43:20.300 --> 00:43:22.320 there's nothing we can do about it, so don't worry. 882 00:43:23.340 --> 00:43:24.960 And there are powerful advocates. 883 00:43:24.960 --> 00:43:26.060 I'd mentioned Andrew Bolt. 884 00:43:26.220 --> 00:43:30.600 But in general, the radical right of the media landscape 885 00:43:30.600 --> 00:43:34.980 consistently puts this story out in a very clear and concise way. 886 00:43:35.260 --> 00:43:38.080 And if you look at the crikey list of the top powers in media, 887 00:43:38.340 --> 00:43:42.080 the top ten, at least six of them, are sceptical of the science 888 00:43:42.080 --> 00:43:44.360 and are consistently putting their views to the population. 889 00:43:45.020 --> 00:43:48.660 So if that's where it exists now, what's the story of action? 890 00:43:48.820 --> 00:43:53.480 And I've got three ideas for, I think, how we can improve and change the debate. 891 00:43:53.680 --> 00:43:54.940 The first is to find out what's going on in the world. 892 00:43:54.960 --> 00:43:58.260 And the second is to focus, as Mark said, not just on facts, but on values. 893 00:43:58.680 --> 00:44:04.080 So we've often started conversations about climate change from the facts, 894 00:44:04.240 --> 00:44:07.200 from the graphs, from the propositions that we've heard from Mark. 895 00:44:07.580 --> 00:44:10.760 But we assume that if people just knew the facts, 896 00:44:10.860 --> 00:44:11.700 that they'd be convinced. 897 00:44:12.060 --> 00:44:13.100 But they haven't been. 898 00:44:13.300 --> 00:44:15.960 So it must be the case that the facts alone aren't enough. 899 00:44:16.500 --> 00:44:17.980 They're necessary but not sufficient. 900 00:44:18.400 --> 00:44:23.000 So we need values in order to help people contextualise these issues. 901 00:44:23.300 --> 00:44:24.780 I could talk about stewardship. 902 00:44:24.960 --> 00:44:26.020 I could talk about responsibility. 903 00:44:26.700 --> 00:44:28.540 As a member of the younger generation, 904 00:44:28.720 --> 00:44:31.760 I have a simple request to leaders in generations older than me, 905 00:44:31.880 --> 00:44:35.220 which is that they leave the planet essentially how you found it, 906 00:44:35.240 --> 00:44:36.100 when it came to you. 907 00:44:36.280 --> 00:44:38.280 And I promise that with our generation, 908 00:44:38.320 --> 00:44:40.940 we'll try our best to do the same for our children and grandchildren. 909 00:44:41.380 --> 00:44:44.540 And that's a stewardship message that has resonance 910 00:44:44.540 --> 00:44:47.540 with generations of Australians, indeed people around the world, 911 00:44:47.580 --> 00:44:50.040 that have tried to leave the world or just their patch 912 00:44:50.040 --> 00:44:51.780 a little bit better for their children and grandchildren. 913 00:44:52.360 --> 00:44:54.780 I could talk about values of opportunity and prosperity. 914 00:44:54.960 --> 00:44:57.200 Australia is one of the sunniest countries in the world. 915 00:44:57.560 --> 00:44:59.620 We could be a leader in renewable technology. 916 00:44:59.880 --> 00:45:02.280 The first solar billionaire is actually an Australian 917 00:45:02.280 --> 00:45:06.060 who developed technology at the University of New South Wales 918 00:45:06.060 --> 00:45:09.780 and then has capitalised and commercialised that technology in China. 919 00:45:10.000 --> 00:45:12.260 So we haven't got the fruits of that. 920 00:45:13.020 --> 00:45:15.560 If you look at Germany, one of the leaders in solar energy, 921 00:45:15.760 --> 00:45:20.160 the best place in Germany for solar energy capture 922 00:45:20.160 --> 00:45:23.260 is equivalent to the worst place in Australia, 923 00:45:23.400 --> 00:45:24.940 down in the Tarkine Valley in Australia. 924 00:45:24.960 --> 00:45:27.200 And that's in Tasmania on the west coast. 925 00:45:27.540 --> 00:45:29.940 So you've got to think, like, we've got all of this sun, 926 00:45:30.060 --> 00:45:31.140 we've got all of this space, 927 00:45:31.360 --> 00:45:33.180 we could do something really productive with it. 928 00:45:33.780 --> 00:45:36.560 So I could have talked about stewardship, leadership, responsibility, 929 00:45:37.080 --> 00:45:40.140 opportunity, collaboration and bringing the community together. 930 00:45:40.200 --> 00:45:43.200 There's a range of values that can be useful on this issue. 931 00:45:44.780 --> 00:45:48.460 But I think one way to think about values, though, 932 00:45:48.480 --> 00:45:51.600 is that we often talk about climate change at... 933 00:45:51.600 --> 00:45:54.060 If you've heard about Maslow's hierarchy of needs, 934 00:45:54.060 --> 00:45:56.240 you can think about physiological needs, 935 00:45:56.420 --> 00:45:59.040 which are, you know, your average food and shelter. 936 00:45:59.320 --> 00:46:01.400 Go up one step to safety needs, 937 00:46:01.580 --> 00:46:05.880 which are your economic prosperity and your financial security. 938 00:46:06.340 --> 00:46:08.020 Go up one more level to social needs, 939 00:46:08.180 --> 00:46:11.400 which is your love and belonging in your family and with your friends. 940 00:46:11.600 --> 00:46:14.760 One step up is esteem needs, how you're respected in the community. 941 00:46:15.000 --> 00:46:16.820 And self-actualisation is on the top. 942 00:46:16.920 --> 00:46:19.220 So that's your capacity to care about bigger-than-self issues, 943 00:46:19.440 --> 00:46:20.540 like climate change. 944 00:46:20.780 --> 00:46:23.420 And we usually start right at the top talking about climate change, 945 00:46:23.420 --> 00:46:25.660 talking about the moral imperative to act. 946 00:46:25.860 --> 00:46:30.040 But often we forget to talk right down the bottom about food, about health, 947 00:46:30.220 --> 00:46:33.540 which are the issues that deeply resonate with every one of us 948 00:46:33.540 --> 00:46:35.260 because they're relevant to our daily experience. 949 00:46:36.160 --> 00:46:39.440 The moral propositions doesn't necessarily resonate with everyone. 950 00:46:39.580 --> 00:46:42.680 Well, this can, and you look in contrast to the story of inaction, 951 00:46:42.800 --> 00:46:44.200 which is about cost of living, 952 00:46:44.380 --> 00:46:46.400 which is, again, right down the bottom of the pyramid. 953 00:46:46.660 --> 00:46:49.440 So I think food in and of itself is a useful tool 954 00:46:49.440 --> 00:46:52.980 for us to communicate why climate change matters to the average person. 955 00:46:54.640 --> 00:46:57.220 So that just takes me back to this list of the second one, 956 00:46:57.280 --> 00:46:59.240 which is, consider what matters to the audience. 957 00:46:59.520 --> 00:47:01.260 Start from where the audience is. 958 00:47:01.320 --> 00:47:04.180 The public isn't stupid, and they're not to be disrespected. 959 00:47:05.680 --> 00:47:09.800 The next point is to paint a positive and compelling vision of the future. 960 00:47:09.980 --> 00:47:12.200 We've had a discussion about the carbon price this year 961 00:47:12.200 --> 00:47:15.340 with not a lot of discussion about what that price will actually achieve. 962 00:47:15.600 --> 00:47:16.960 What is the vision for Australia? 963 00:47:17.220 --> 00:47:19.080 Where do we go when we solve this problem? 964 00:47:19.520 --> 00:47:22.680 It's not necessarily about just solving the problem. 965 00:47:22.680 --> 00:47:24.540 We can look at how we create a better community 966 00:47:24.540 --> 00:47:26.120 and a better society in doing so. 967 00:47:26.240 --> 00:47:28.580 How can we make energy cheaper but also cleaner? 968 00:47:28.780 --> 00:47:31.900 How can we make our cities more accessible, cleaner, user-friendly? 969 00:47:32.120 --> 00:47:34.800 How do we make our buildings work so they're healthier? 970 00:47:35.120 --> 00:47:38.100 How do we make farmland more productive and crops more nutritious? 971 00:47:38.840 --> 00:47:41.580 Can we use the necessity of innovation 972 00:47:41.580 --> 00:47:44.600 to help us both deal with the climate crisis 973 00:47:44.600 --> 00:47:47.900 but also use it as a platform to create lots of new technologies 974 00:47:47.900 --> 00:47:50.240 that is going to advantage us in lots of different ways? 975 00:47:50.600 --> 00:47:52.520 How can we use the climate crisis 976 00:47:52.680 --> 00:47:56.160 to make our global community more just and more connected? 977 00:47:56.760 --> 00:48:00.320 So it's not just about the problem, it's about the solution. 978 00:48:00.720 --> 00:48:04.340 And we often lament the lack of leadership that we see from our politicians. 979 00:48:04.780 --> 00:48:08.480 But leadership isn't connected to a particular position or a particular title. 980 00:48:08.700 --> 00:48:11.860 It's the capacity of all of us to take leadership in our own lives. 981 00:48:12.220 --> 00:48:14.240 And we can never have a debate 982 00:48:14.240 --> 00:48:17.540 that is not centred on some of those things that I outlined at the start 983 00:48:17.540 --> 00:48:20.520 unless each one of us is willing to participate in that debate, 984 00:48:20.720 --> 00:48:22.660 lifting the calibre of that debate, 985 00:48:22.680 --> 00:48:25.320 making it more respectful and making it more positive. 986 00:48:25.640 --> 00:48:26.600 It's the eternal... 987 00:48:26.600 --> 00:48:30.620 The price of liberty, as Andrew Jackson said, 988 00:48:30.760 --> 00:48:32.780 is eternal vigilance of the people. 989 00:48:33.000 --> 00:48:36.200 And I think we all have a responsibility in democracy to make that happen. 990 00:48:36.600 --> 00:48:37.960 We live at a time that matters. 991 00:48:38.180 --> 00:48:41.120 We have an incredible privilege to live at a time 992 00:48:41.120 --> 00:48:43.420 when the impact that we make on the world 993 00:48:43.420 --> 00:48:45.880 can actually have a difference for a really long period of time. 994 00:48:46.240 --> 00:48:48.300 So thank you for listening. 995 00:48:48.440 --> 00:48:49.580 I'll pass back over to Bob. 996 00:48:53.560 --> 00:48:54.300 Thank you. 997 00:48:54.300 --> 00:48:54.640 APPLAUSE 998 00:48:57.060 --> 00:48:59.720 Thank you very much for an outstanding talk. 999 00:49:01.020 --> 00:49:05.220 Amanda, I just noticed that your last point in the story of inaction 1000 00:49:05.220 --> 00:49:10.700 is encapsulated in a series of TV ads at the moment about a certain matter. 1001 00:49:10.880 --> 00:49:14.880 How do we get past this distrust on all sides in this debate? 1002 00:49:15.400 --> 00:49:16.740 Do you have any suggestions? 1003 00:49:18.420 --> 00:49:20.660 Well, as I was saying about leadership, 1004 00:49:20.660 --> 00:49:24.140 I think it's required on all of our parts to lift the debate. 1005 00:49:24.380 --> 00:49:26.440 So politicians aren't... 1006 00:49:26.440 --> 00:49:30.080 I think in some ways politicians are dealt with in the media unfairly. 1007 00:49:30.100 --> 00:49:33.320 I think a lot of politicians on all sides have good intentions. 1008 00:49:33.420 --> 00:49:35.620 There are some with probably not optimal intentions. 1009 00:49:36.160 --> 00:49:38.900 But it requires giving credit where credit's due 1010 00:49:38.900 --> 00:49:41.180 to where things actually work well. 1011 00:49:41.260 --> 00:49:44.760 I think the Labor government at the moment has put through some good things. 1012 00:49:45.100 --> 00:49:47.380 We often only hear of the bad things. 1013 00:49:47.500 --> 00:49:50.260 And I think that leads to a position of a lack of trust. 1014 00:49:50.260 --> 00:49:52.840 I think it's also incumbent on all of us to... 1015 00:49:53.460 --> 00:49:54.820 We often hear about the media 1016 00:49:54.820 --> 00:49:57.460 and lament the role of the media in all of this. 1017 00:49:57.560 --> 00:49:58.900 To hold the media to account. 1018 00:50:00.040 --> 00:50:00.840 They're companies. 1019 00:50:00.920 --> 00:50:02.280 They react to public... 1020 00:50:02.880 --> 00:50:04.920 ..public reaction to what it is that they do. 1021 00:50:05.100 --> 00:50:07.980 So if we send letters, if we call them when they're doing things 1022 00:50:07.980 --> 00:50:10.220 that we think we don't agree with 1023 00:50:10.220 --> 00:50:14.200 or we think is fostering something that is to the detriment of Australian society, 1024 00:50:14.420 --> 00:50:15.760 we can actually have an impact. 1025 00:50:17.180 --> 00:50:17.840 Thank you. 1026 00:50:18.260 --> 00:50:19.260 Mark or Amanda, 1027 00:50:19.260 --> 00:50:23.680 driving change is a difficult thing. 1028 00:50:23.840 --> 00:50:25.720 And sometimes governments have to step in. 1029 00:50:25.820 --> 00:50:27.680 Like I now wear a seatbelt. 1030 00:50:27.780 --> 00:50:29.280 I've fought that for a long, long time. 1031 00:50:29.340 --> 00:50:31.340 But I saw some accidents and changed my mind. 1032 00:50:31.580 --> 00:50:35.140 I find reluctance about giving up drinking and driving. 1033 00:50:35.740 --> 00:50:39.380 But in reality, there is a law that stops me from doing that 1034 00:50:39.380 --> 00:50:41.300 and smoking in public places. 1035 00:50:41.740 --> 00:50:43.220 Is this where we're headed, 1036 00:50:43.360 --> 00:50:47.280 where we're going to have to drive our politicians to enforce some change? 1037 00:50:47.420 --> 00:50:47.900 Mark? 1038 00:50:49.340 --> 00:50:49.860 Yes. 1039 00:50:50.320 --> 00:50:51.740 Both of you, go for it. 1040 00:50:53.500 --> 00:50:55.060 There's no single pathway here. 1041 00:50:55.500 --> 00:50:58.020 We actually have to do this on multiple paths. 1042 00:50:58.480 --> 00:51:01.120 It's really important, I think, 1043 00:51:01.140 --> 00:51:04.220 to make sure that the framing of the policy 1044 00:51:04.220 --> 00:51:06.160 from the government perspective is appropriate. 1045 00:51:06.500 --> 00:51:08.660 And that means they need to recognise 1046 00:51:09.580 --> 00:51:13.780 the benefits and costs of different pathways. 1047 00:51:14.180 --> 00:51:18.120 And I think this is only just starting to be included in the policy process, 1048 00:51:18.280 --> 00:51:19.240 where we actually have to do it. 1049 00:51:19.260 --> 00:51:20.500 But we're actually starting to look at the benefits 1050 00:51:20.500 --> 00:51:23.840 from proactive adaptation versus reactive, 1051 00:51:24.080 --> 00:51:26.080 which is where we've been in the past at best. 1052 00:51:26.580 --> 00:51:29.160 And then starting to think about, 1053 00:51:29.260 --> 00:51:32.320 well, it's not only about the national interest 1054 00:51:32.320 --> 00:51:34.020 in the sense of other actors, 1055 00:51:34.180 --> 00:51:37.200 but there's also a clear governmental interest 1056 00:51:37.200 --> 00:51:38.980 in terms of their own assets, 1057 00:51:39.160 --> 00:51:42.780 in terms of having those assets adapted as well. 1058 00:51:43.020 --> 00:51:45.100 So I think from a policy perspective, 1059 00:51:45.820 --> 00:51:47.640 there's a range of potential drivers. 1060 00:51:47.880 --> 00:51:49.080 And critically, 1061 00:51:49.080 --> 00:51:52.780 those, if we want to move down an adaptation pathway, 1062 00:51:53.040 --> 00:51:55.860 we have to have a series of policies and procedures 1063 00:51:55.860 --> 00:51:58.340 which are actually supportive of that adaptation. 1064 00:51:58.540 --> 00:52:00.160 At the moment, we have a series of barriers. 1065 00:52:00.520 --> 00:52:00.680 Yeah. 1066 00:52:01.440 --> 00:52:02.800 If any of you want questions, 1067 00:52:03.280 --> 00:52:07.400 could you please move to the back of the hall there 1068 00:52:07.400 --> 00:52:09.260 where there is a microphone? 1069 00:52:09.520 --> 00:52:11.440 Please feel free to jump in. 1070 00:52:11.520 --> 00:52:14.120 I can see people moving in that direction. 1071 00:52:15.740 --> 00:52:18.940 One of the pieces of data that you presented, Mark, 1072 00:52:18.940 --> 00:52:21.040 was imports of vegetables. 1073 00:52:21.260 --> 00:52:22.740 Is this about climate change 1074 00:52:22.740 --> 00:52:24.960 or is this about good old-fashioned economics 1075 00:52:24.960 --> 00:52:28.060 where it's cheaper to fly in peas from China 1076 00:52:28.060 --> 00:52:30.240 than for us to grow them? 1077 00:52:30.780 --> 00:52:34.420 Look, all of these big changes are driven by multiple things. 1078 00:52:34.720 --> 00:52:36.620 So there's a climate change signal there. 1079 00:52:36.720 --> 00:52:38.640 There's also industry restructuring signals 1080 00:52:38.640 --> 00:52:40.240 tucked away in there. 1081 00:52:40.580 --> 00:52:42.160 I'm not aware of anyone 1082 00:52:42.160 --> 00:52:43.820 who's actually teased those things apart 1083 00:52:43.820 --> 00:52:45.460 for Australian agriculture. 1084 00:52:45.700 --> 00:52:48.580 There have been efforts, say, for the biofuels, 1085 00:52:50.300 --> 00:52:51.180 impacts overseas 1086 00:52:51.180 --> 00:52:54.020 as related to food prices 1087 00:52:54.020 --> 00:52:57.820 and sort of teasing that component apart. 1088 00:52:57.980 --> 00:53:00.380 So, you know, what's due to biofuels competing with food 1089 00:53:00.380 --> 00:53:03.640 and what's due to reductions in infrastructure, 1090 00:53:03.860 --> 00:53:05.760 what's due to climate, what's due to market forces. 1091 00:53:06.920 --> 00:53:09.900 So these things always happen for multiple reasons. 1092 00:53:10.180 --> 00:53:12.700 But clearly, the big drought in the Murray-Darling, 1093 00:53:12.780 --> 00:53:15.160 which is a food bowl for a lot of those industries 1094 00:53:15.160 --> 00:53:16.400 that produce fruit and veggies, 1095 00:53:16.600 --> 00:53:18.320 that was hitting hard. Yep. 1096 00:53:18.840 --> 00:53:20.440 There's a question at the back. Is that right? 1097 00:53:20.840 --> 00:53:21.720 Yes. OK. 1098 00:53:22.460 --> 00:53:24.360 Yes, I like your approach, both of you, 1099 00:53:24.380 --> 00:53:26.320 to changing the way we look at this 1100 00:53:26.320 --> 00:53:27.680 and putting the problem at the centre, 1101 00:53:27.760 --> 00:53:31.060 changing that to turning around and looking at values and ideals. 1102 00:53:31.200 --> 00:53:32.780 And it makes me think of something that happened yesterday 1103 00:53:32.780 --> 00:53:35.800 in the talk on carbon tax and climate change. 1104 00:53:36.280 --> 00:53:38.160 And someone suggested maybe we should go back 1105 00:53:38.160 --> 00:53:39.640 to fear and greed to drive that along. 1106 00:53:40.460 --> 00:53:42.160 And one of the guest speakers responded 1107 00:53:42.160 --> 00:53:44.060 that Al Gore released his film 1108 00:53:44.940 --> 00:53:48.040 and he characterised that as a fear, 1109 00:53:48.040 --> 00:53:48.840 a tool of fear, 1110 00:53:48.920 --> 00:53:50.620 where I think it was actually information and concern. 1111 00:53:50.920 --> 00:53:53.900 He said, since that time, the public has become more cynical 1112 00:53:53.900 --> 00:53:57.220 and disengaged from understanding 1113 00:53:57.220 --> 00:53:59.940 and responding to positive messages about climate change. 1114 00:54:00.180 --> 00:54:01.220 I think he's wrong. 1115 00:54:01.400 --> 00:54:04.380 I think the reason that's happened is not because of Al Gore's film, 1116 00:54:04.480 --> 00:54:06.460 because vested interests got in there 1117 00:54:06.460 --> 00:54:10.020 and went hammer and tongs for even more fear from the other side. 1118 00:54:10.180 --> 00:54:12.940 So it seems to me you're talking about not falling into that trap. 1119 00:54:14.620 --> 00:54:16.280 So... If you want to respond, sure. 1120 00:54:17.240 --> 00:54:18.020 Very much so. 1121 00:54:18.040 --> 00:54:20.020 If you actually focus on adaptation, 1122 00:54:20.380 --> 00:54:23.380 people will only do an adaptation to whatever situation 1123 00:54:23.380 --> 00:54:25.860 if it actually benefits them in some way. 1124 00:54:26.000 --> 00:54:26.600 So it actually... 1125 00:54:26.600 --> 00:54:29.340 In some dimension of things that they value, 1126 00:54:29.400 --> 00:54:30.760 it actually improves their lot. 1127 00:54:30.980 --> 00:54:33.740 So inherently, adaptation is done 1128 00:54:33.740 --> 00:54:36.780 because people actually see it as bringing benefit to themselves. 1129 00:54:37.040 --> 00:54:41.240 So it actually takes it out of that fear domain quite significantly. 1130 00:54:41.560 --> 00:54:44.840 So the challenge from a policy perspective 1131 00:54:44.840 --> 00:54:47.500 is that what you have then is a series of adaptations 1132 00:54:47.500 --> 00:54:48.020 which are not... 1133 00:54:48.040 --> 00:54:50.540 which might be fostered, including through public expenditure, 1134 00:54:50.760 --> 00:54:52.760 which actually bring private benefit. 1135 00:54:53.260 --> 00:54:56.220 So part of the government policy development 1136 00:54:56.220 --> 00:54:58.740 has to actually be able to make a case 1137 00:54:58.740 --> 00:55:00.620 why that expenditure is in the national interest 1138 00:55:00.620 --> 00:55:02.720 and why there's national benefit from that 1139 00:55:02.720 --> 00:55:05.920 through accumulated individual private benefit. 1140 00:55:06.560 --> 00:55:07.840 And again, that's something 1141 00:55:07.840 --> 00:55:09.980 which has really only just started to come through. 1142 00:55:10.420 --> 00:55:11.760 Another question at the back. 1143 00:55:12.540 --> 00:55:16.700 Yeah, I'm a retired chemical engineer. 1144 00:55:16.700 --> 00:55:20.160 I've been involved in the energy issue for many years. 1145 00:55:20.920 --> 00:55:23.360 I'm also acting like a two-year-old, 1146 00:55:23.420 --> 00:55:25.400 so I'm starting all over again as well. 1147 00:55:25.760 --> 00:55:28.940 Look, there are many... 1148 00:55:28.940 --> 00:55:32.760 There are many people around with good ideas on climate change, OK? 1149 00:55:33.240 --> 00:55:36.140 One of the problems is how... 1150 00:55:36.140 --> 00:55:38.300 Who can we go to to listen? 1151 00:55:39.220 --> 00:55:39.960 That's one. 1152 00:55:40.460 --> 00:55:45.220 And then you've got to influence two forces to do something. 1153 00:55:45.340 --> 00:55:46.680 First of all, the government's got to do something. 1154 00:55:46.680 --> 00:55:47.080 The government's got to act. 1155 00:55:47.920 --> 00:55:49.880 It's proven over the years 1156 00:55:49.880 --> 00:55:54.880 that the government has the main influence in energy policies. 1157 00:55:56.420 --> 00:55:58.260 Now, generally, they're responsible. 1158 00:55:58.660 --> 00:55:59.280 They don't care. 1159 00:55:59.340 --> 00:56:01.680 They're more worried about their wages than anything else. 1160 00:56:01.780 --> 00:56:04.620 But what we need to do is get some other influence 1161 00:56:04.620 --> 00:56:06.080 to put pressure on them. 1162 00:56:06.180 --> 00:56:07.480 And the media is the best. 1163 00:56:07.740 --> 00:56:10.200 The media could have a major role 1164 00:56:10.200 --> 00:56:13.180 in influencing the government to change policies 1165 00:56:13.180 --> 00:56:15.640 to do something about climate change. 1166 00:56:15.640 --> 00:56:18.500 I was involved in the first climate change conference 1167 00:56:18.500 --> 00:56:21.060 in Australia 25 years ago, OK? 1168 00:56:21.180 --> 00:56:25.420 I've been concerned about it ever since, and we haven't. 1169 00:56:25.480 --> 00:56:27.600 I went to a conference a few minutes ago. 1170 00:56:27.760 --> 00:56:29.840 It was discussed down the road. 1171 00:56:30.120 --> 00:56:32.720 But we've got to do something. 1172 00:56:33.280 --> 00:56:36.340 My question is, is there some organisation 1173 00:56:37.080 --> 00:56:39.720 that people with good ideas can go to 1174 00:56:39.720 --> 00:56:41.880 to have these matters considered 1175 00:56:42.700 --> 00:56:44.680 and then put into effect? 1176 00:56:44.680 --> 00:56:46.800 I would say, if I had a guess, 1177 00:56:46.800 --> 00:56:50.220 I'd say that CSIRO would be number one to go to, OK? 1178 00:56:50.320 --> 00:56:51.160 Thank you for the question. 1179 00:56:51.220 --> 00:56:53.680 Amanda, you've talked to us about change 1180 00:56:54.320 --> 00:56:57.880 and you've had some successful public programs. 1181 00:56:58.040 --> 00:56:59.660 He's talking about that same thing. 1182 00:56:59.800 --> 00:57:00.980 What levers do we pull? 1183 00:57:01.120 --> 00:57:02.780 What organisations do we go to? 1184 00:57:02.900 --> 00:57:05.260 How do we stop feeling suicidal about this? 1185 00:57:07.120 --> 00:57:09.760 Well, I think that there's a range of organisations 1186 00:57:09.760 --> 00:57:11.180 that have been working on this, 1187 00:57:11.220 --> 00:57:13.120 whether it's Australian Conservation Foundation, 1188 00:57:13.340 --> 00:57:14.660 Ian's sitting down the front line, 1189 00:57:14.680 --> 00:57:16.360 or whether it's GetUp or the organisation 1190 00:57:16.360 --> 00:57:18.620 that I founded, the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, 1191 00:57:18.840 --> 00:57:20.080 that have been working on this issue. 1192 00:57:20.180 --> 00:57:21.900 And the foundation for a lot of those organisations 1193 00:57:21.900 --> 00:57:24.000 is that government won't act 1194 00:57:24.000 --> 00:57:25.760 unless the public demands it of them. 1195 00:57:25.900 --> 00:57:27.980 If you look at any large-scale social change 1196 00:57:27.980 --> 00:57:29.040 of this type of nature, 1197 00:57:29.300 --> 00:57:32.200 you haven't seen it being led by government or business. 1198 00:57:32.380 --> 00:57:34.080 You've seen it being pushed by the public. 1199 00:57:34.400 --> 00:57:36.860 And if you think about whether it was slavery, 1200 00:57:37.220 --> 00:57:38.680 remember in Britain, 1201 00:57:39.440 --> 00:57:42.200 the arguments against why you would stop having slaves 1202 00:57:42.200 --> 00:57:44.660 was that, oh, well, the economy's going to fall apart, 1203 00:57:44.680 --> 00:57:45.660 if we don't have slaves. 1204 00:57:45.920 --> 00:57:48.180 The argument about, like, can we have an eight-hour day? 1205 00:57:48.380 --> 00:57:50.020 Oh, well, the economy's going to fall apart 1206 00:57:50.020 --> 00:57:51.100 if we have an eight-hour day. 1207 00:57:51.260 --> 00:57:54.060 We need people to be working these ridiculously long weeks. 1208 00:57:54.300 --> 00:57:54.900 All of the... 1209 00:57:54.900 --> 00:57:58.120 There's been a substantial amount of those sorts of movements 1210 00:57:58.120 --> 00:57:59.680 that have moved society forward. 1211 00:57:59.800 --> 00:58:01.840 So I think it does require the community to come together 1212 00:58:01.840 --> 00:58:02.860 to put pressure on government. 1213 00:58:03.240 --> 00:58:05.920 And there are groups doing that in the community now 1214 00:58:05.920 --> 00:58:08.980 that you'd be very welcome to join and get involved with 1215 00:58:08.980 --> 00:58:11.040 and are consistently doing advocacy work on this. 1216 00:58:11.300 --> 00:58:13.280 And it does require the community to come together. 1217 00:58:13.360 --> 00:58:14.660 In terms of what you said about the fact 1218 00:58:14.660 --> 00:58:14.760 that there's been a lot of pressure on the media 1219 00:58:14.760 --> 00:58:16.140 about the media and the media's role, 1220 00:58:16.340 --> 00:58:19.880 I think that, similarly to what I was saying earlier, 1221 00:58:20.120 --> 00:58:22.520 there's been a lot of pressure on the media 1222 00:58:22.520 --> 00:58:26.120 from vested interests and from proponents of inaction 1223 00:58:26.120 --> 00:58:28.160 to change the dialogue in the media, 1224 00:58:28.260 --> 00:58:29.800 and they've been consistently successful. 1225 00:58:30.180 --> 00:58:32.040 If you look at the way that the media's changed 1226 00:58:32.040 --> 00:58:33.460 in how they've looked at this issue, 1227 00:58:33.600 --> 00:58:36.100 it's partly just because there's groups complaining about it. 1228 00:58:36.240 --> 00:58:39.600 That every time that there's a climate scientist on the ABC, 1229 00:58:39.960 --> 00:58:41.580 someone rings up the ABC and says, 1230 00:58:41.740 --> 00:58:43.060 where's the climate sceptic? 1231 00:58:43.060 --> 00:58:43.940 You have to have balance. 1232 00:58:44.200 --> 00:58:47.180 Obviously, that doesn't reflect the true balance in the science, 1233 00:58:47.300 --> 00:58:49.740 but someone's complaining about it, so then they have to react. 1234 00:58:50.120 --> 00:58:53.780 But consistently, when Sky News, I saw this last week, 1235 00:58:53.820 --> 00:58:58.180 had a panel of very conservative right-wing pundits 1236 00:58:58.180 --> 00:59:00.680 who were all talking about their scepticism of the science, 1237 00:59:00.880 --> 00:59:03.440 and I would be surprised if anyone rang up and complained. 1238 00:59:04.380 --> 00:59:05.540 So I think it's... 1239 00:59:06.060 --> 00:59:08.800 If we think that we want to lift the public discourse, 1240 00:59:08.900 --> 00:59:10.760 it has to be through doing things like that, 1241 00:59:10.860 --> 00:59:12.920 through calling people out when they're doing things 1242 00:59:13.060 --> 00:59:15.260 that don't reflect having a true balance debate. 1243 00:59:15.800 --> 00:59:17.420 Mark, this may seem... 1244 00:59:17.420 --> 00:59:18.780 I should just respond to that too. 1245 00:59:18.900 --> 00:59:22.640 Within the agriculture sector and food industry sector, 1246 00:59:22.740 --> 00:59:25.300 there actually are mechanisms, including land care, for doing that, 1247 00:59:25.400 --> 00:59:28.420 and a lot of the state agencies, such as those in South Australia, 1248 00:59:28.580 --> 00:59:32.480 are a centre for going for that sort of information. 1249 00:59:33.320 --> 00:59:34.880 Within the agriculture, 1250 00:59:35.040 --> 00:59:37.860 a lot of the innovation actually occurs from the farmers, 1251 00:59:38.020 --> 00:59:40.020 and so it's not imposed on them. 1252 00:59:40.100 --> 00:59:41.200 It actually is bottom-up. 1253 00:59:41.580 --> 00:59:42.920 And there are programs, 1254 00:59:43.060 --> 00:59:44.760 such as the Climate Champions Programme, 1255 00:59:44.760 --> 00:59:46.460 run by GRDC at the moment, 1256 00:59:46.560 --> 00:59:50.040 which brings out those good news stories 1257 00:59:50.040 --> 00:59:53.300 about how people have dealt with this in a really constructive way 1258 00:59:53.300 --> 00:59:54.720 and communicates that to other people. 1259 00:59:54.820 --> 00:59:58.060 So there are mechanisms sitting in there to deal with this. 1260 00:59:58.340 --> 00:59:59.820 One of the important things, though, 1261 00:59:59.820 --> 01:00:03.300 is mitigation is actually quite different from adaptation 1262 01:00:03.300 --> 01:00:06.500 in terms of the degree of centralisation of it. 1263 01:00:06.700 --> 01:00:10.960 So, for example, a carbon policy, a carbon tax policy, 1264 01:00:11.040 --> 01:00:12.120 would be pretty much the same 1265 01:00:12.120 --> 01:00:15.920 if implemented in Australia as it would be in New Zealand, for example. 1266 01:00:16.540 --> 01:00:18.960 Putting a set of solar panels on your roof 1267 01:00:18.960 --> 01:00:22.780 is pretty much the same as it is in Germany as it is in Australia. 1268 01:00:23.040 --> 01:00:25.700 There's actually a huge amount of commonality across that, 1269 01:00:25.800 --> 01:00:29.140 and that commonality allows a lot of centralised processes. 1270 01:00:29.520 --> 01:00:33.800 In contrast, adaptation is almost different every time you apply it. 1271 01:00:33.860 --> 01:00:35.760 So if you've got one farm next to another, 1272 01:00:35.940 --> 01:00:38.860 they'll actually be very different in terms of aspirations, 1273 01:00:39.100 --> 01:00:40.720 in terms of management systems, etc. 1274 01:00:40.720 --> 01:00:43.580 And even though they may be similar in other ways, 1275 01:00:44.220 --> 01:00:46.240 you'll need to have different adaptation options 1276 01:00:46.240 --> 01:00:47.500 for those different systems. 1277 01:00:48.120 --> 01:00:51.220 So adaptation generally is actually much more fragmented 1278 01:00:51.220 --> 01:00:53.220 and it requires a lot more complexity 1279 01:00:53.220 --> 01:00:56.360 in terms of how you analyse it from a policy perspective 1280 01:00:56.360 --> 01:00:58.380 to come up with sensible options. 1281 01:00:59.300 --> 01:01:00.080 Thank you, Mark. 1282 01:01:00.320 --> 01:01:02.640 I've just been given the signal from the back there, 1283 01:01:02.760 --> 01:01:04.020 and we're going to have to wind this up. 1284 01:01:04.100 --> 01:01:06.720 Today we've heard some wonderful messages. 1285 01:01:06.820 --> 01:01:09.400 We've heard some messages of facts. 1286 01:01:09.400 --> 01:01:11.060 We know where we stand, 1287 01:01:11.160 --> 01:01:15.280 and there's nothing more clear to us to find paths forward 1288 01:01:15.280 --> 01:01:19.160 than to have the facts rather than dealing with hearsay. 1289 01:01:19.280 --> 01:01:21.300 We've also heard some messages of hope, 1290 01:01:21.400 --> 01:01:24.900 and I'm for one not as despairing as I was, 1291 01:01:25.020 --> 01:01:28.920 and all I wish was I was 50 years younger to start all over again. 1292 01:01:29.140 --> 01:01:31.960 So will you please join me in thanking the speakers?