WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.260 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to this very exciting session, 2 00:00:03.500 --> 00:00:05.660 Climate Change Beyond the City Liniments. 3 00:00:05.980 --> 00:00:08.200 Now, I'm your chair for this morning. 4 00:00:08.280 --> 00:00:10.700 My name's Carol Vincent, and I'm the Chief Executive 5 00:00:10.700 --> 00:00:12.500 of the South Australian Farmers' Federation. 6 00:00:13.100 --> 00:00:18.320 Before we begin, I'm just going to do a little bit of an audience survey 7 00:00:18.900 --> 00:00:21.280 to see who we've got with us today. 8 00:00:21.580 --> 00:00:25.980 Can you put your hand up for me if you're from interstate or overseas, please? 9 00:00:27.720 --> 00:00:28.240 Excellent. 10 00:00:28.240 --> 00:00:30.540 Do we have any farmers in the audience? 11 00:00:31.480 --> 00:00:32.660 Oh, well done. 12 00:00:32.720 --> 00:00:34.180 Round of applause for our farmers. 13 00:00:38.080 --> 00:00:39.140 Metropolitan Adelaide people. 14 00:00:41.720 --> 00:00:42.140 Academics. 15 00:00:45.020 --> 00:00:45.440 Politicians. 16 00:00:47.360 --> 00:00:49.700 Oh, well, then I need to say that you just need to recognise 17 00:00:49.700 --> 00:00:52.000 there's no parliamentary privilege this morning. 18 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:56.660 Now, I would ask you all to turn your mobile phones off. 19 00:00:56.740 --> 00:00:58.080 I know in some of the other sessions, 20 00:00:58.240 --> 00:01:01.080 they've been ringing in the middle of people's presentations. 21 00:01:01.460 --> 00:01:03.720 Very frustrating and very rude. 22 00:01:03.940 --> 00:01:06.740 We've got a wonderful panel for you this morning. 23 00:01:06.800 --> 00:01:10.580 I've just been having a quick chat with them in the green room, 24 00:01:10.740 --> 00:01:12.720 and they've certainly got me thinking ahead. 25 00:01:13.260 --> 00:01:15.660 Now, climate change beyond the city limits. 26 00:01:15.740 --> 00:01:17.840 What does this mean in South Australia? 27 00:01:18.000 --> 00:01:20.620 What does this mean for regional and rural South Australia? 28 00:01:20.940 --> 00:01:23.060 I'll pose some questions to you. 29 00:01:23.620 --> 00:01:25.040 Will we have... 30 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:26.400 There are some things that we do know. 31 00:01:26.480 --> 00:01:27.800 We do know that... 32 00:01:28.240 --> 00:01:29.780 We will have less frost. 33 00:01:30.060 --> 00:01:33.460 We do know that the temperatures will rise. 34 00:01:34.960 --> 00:01:36.500 To God-given facts. 35 00:01:36.740 --> 00:01:38.720 The farmers that I work with are saying, 36 00:01:39.760 --> 00:01:42.140 we want to know what climate change means. 37 00:01:42.300 --> 00:01:46.220 If we need to adapt and mitigate, we want to know what to do now. 38 00:01:46.380 --> 00:01:48.360 The thing is, nobody can tell them 39 00:01:48.360 --> 00:01:50.520 what they're going to need to do for the future. 40 00:01:50.600 --> 00:01:54.960 So hopefully, we might get some kind of headway down that path. 41 00:01:55.340 --> 00:01:56.540 So here are some questions. 42 00:01:56.920 --> 00:01:58.160 Will South Australia... 43 00:01:58.160 --> 00:01:59.820 Will South Australia's water be totally supplied 44 00:01:59.820 --> 00:02:02.000 by Salisbury Council and Colin Pittman? 45 00:02:02.080 --> 00:02:03.820 And only the people from South Australia 46 00:02:03.820 --> 00:02:05.780 will know the meaning of that. 47 00:02:07.060 --> 00:02:10.300 Will we have operational pastoral lands? 48 00:02:11.280 --> 00:02:15.480 Will South Australia just become, outside the city limits, 49 00:02:15.660 --> 00:02:18.540 a huge mining area dust bowl? 50 00:02:19.180 --> 00:02:23.040 We've had the state government release its 30-year strategy 51 00:02:23.040 --> 00:02:24.700 for Greater Adelaide this week. 52 00:02:24.860 --> 00:02:27.780 They say in that strategy that over the next 30 years, 53 00:02:27.780 --> 00:02:32.420 we're going to have 139,000 people living in the Barossa Valley. 54 00:02:32.620 --> 00:02:33.540 Can you imagine that? 55 00:02:34.320 --> 00:02:39.160 How do we deal with climate change and population growth of that degree? 56 00:02:39.940 --> 00:02:41.420 I'm not going to talk anymore, 57 00:02:41.540 --> 00:02:43.640 because it's the panel that you want to hear from, 58 00:02:43.680 --> 00:02:45.240 and what a wonderful panel they are. 59 00:02:45.480 --> 00:02:47.500 We're going to begin with Suzanne Miller. 60 00:02:47.640 --> 00:02:51.500 And Suzanne moved with her family to South Australia in 2007. 61 00:02:51.940 --> 00:02:55.180 And I've got to say that from where I sit, Suzanne, 62 00:02:55.400 --> 00:02:57.260 South Australia has certainly, 63 00:02:57.900 --> 00:02:58.740 embraced you. 64 00:02:58.920 --> 00:03:01.500 I think everybody was a bit tired of Tim Flannery. 65 00:03:01.600 --> 00:03:03.820 He's one of those people that you love to love from a distance, 66 00:03:03.960 --> 00:03:06.000 but if you're too close up, you can have enough. 67 00:03:06.600 --> 00:03:10.420 So Suzanne has taken on the appointment 68 00:03:10.420 --> 00:03:12.560 as Director of the South Australian Museum. 69 00:03:13.580 --> 00:03:15.640 She grew up in Edinburgh, Scotland. 70 00:03:16.000 --> 00:03:19.440 She studied geology honours at the University of St Andrews 71 00:03:19.440 --> 00:03:22.420 before completing her PhD in marine geology 72 00:03:22.420 --> 00:03:25.420 at Imperial College, University of London. 73 00:03:25.920 --> 00:03:27.760 She has since spent 12 years in the field of geology, 74 00:03:27.760 --> 00:03:29.320 and spent 12 years with the National Museum Scotland 75 00:03:29.320 --> 00:03:31.780 as Principal Curator of Geology, 76 00:03:31.840 --> 00:03:34.040 and then Keeper of Natural Sciences. 77 00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:36.320 As Lecturer in Earth Sciences 78 00:03:36.320 --> 00:03:39.480 with the University of Aberdeen and the Open University, 79 00:03:39.800 --> 00:03:43.060 as a researcher in BBC Science Communications, 80 00:03:43.620 --> 00:03:47.380 as a Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Chemistry, 81 00:03:48.260 --> 00:03:50.260 Universities of Lancaster and Oxford, 82 00:03:50.480 --> 00:03:54.360 as a Petroleum Geochemist Institute of Offshore Engineering, 83 00:03:54.660 --> 00:03:55.060 Orkney. 84 00:03:55.800 --> 00:03:56.260 Where's Orkney? 85 00:03:56.700 --> 00:03:57.500 Orkney. 86 00:03:57.760 --> 00:03:58.220 North of Scotland. 87 00:03:58.780 --> 00:03:59.840 North of Scotland. 88 00:03:59.980 --> 00:04:05.140 And as a metamorphic petrologist, British Antarctic Survey. 89 00:04:05.420 --> 00:04:06.780 You know, this is amazing for me. 90 00:04:06.820 --> 00:04:09.480 I never finished school, so being amongst all these academics 91 00:04:09.480 --> 00:04:11.120 is just, you know, blowing me away. 92 00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:15.080 In her role in Adelaide, she is also Affiliate Professor 93 00:04:15.080 --> 00:04:19.640 in Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Adelaide 94 00:04:19.640 --> 00:04:23.000 and is Deputy Chair of the Premier's Climate Change Council. 95 00:04:23.440 --> 00:04:27.320 She holds a Yachtmasters Coastal Skipper Licence, 96 00:04:27.760 --> 00:04:30.580 Radio Operators Licence and Powerboat Licence, 97 00:04:30.580 --> 00:04:33.300 in addition to being a qualified advanced diver. 98 00:04:33.420 --> 00:04:35.740 So if there's a flood today, she's going to be able to get us out of here. 99 00:04:35.880 --> 00:04:40.840 It's with great pleasure that I introduce our first speaker, Suzanne Miller. 100 00:04:42.380 --> 00:04:42.780 Suzanne Miller. 101 00:04:43.000 --> 00:04:49.500 Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. 102 00:04:49.600 --> 00:04:52.960 It's a great pleasure to be here and I have to say it's also wonderful 103 00:04:52.960 --> 00:04:54.480 to be the first speaker up. 104 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:57.740 If you come second or third, you have to adapt what you're planning to do. 105 00:04:57.760 --> 00:04:59.140 You have to adapt what you're planning to change to what's gone before. 106 00:04:59.360 --> 00:05:02.060 So it's a great privilege to be up first. 107 00:05:02.160 --> 00:05:04.380 Apologies to my other panellists. 108 00:05:05.220 --> 00:05:08.120 As a geologist, I'm very aware that climate change happens. 109 00:05:08.220 --> 00:05:10.440 It's a fact of life and it has been a fact of life 110 00:05:10.440 --> 00:05:12.200 ever since life evolved on this planet. 111 00:05:12.680 --> 00:05:14.880 Billions of years of climate change has happened 112 00:05:14.880 --> 00:05:16.420 and will continue to happen. 113 00:05:16.560 --> 00:05:20.260 The planet is a constantly evolving, changing beast. 114 00:05:20.580 --> 00:05:22.520 It is a very holistic place. 115 00:05:22.820 --> 00:05:25.160 The atmosphere interacts with the hydrosphere 116 00:05:25.160 --> 00:05:26.680 and interacts with the geosphere. 117 00:05:26.680 --> 00:05:29.040 So climate change happens. 118 00:05:29.440 --> 00:05:32.960 At the moment, climate change is happening on quite a rapid pace. 119 00:05:33.120 --> 00:05:34.760 But I would like just to say as a geologist 120 00:05:34.760 --> 00:05:37.780 that there's a lot of information out there about climate change 121 00:05:37.780 --> 00:05:39.860 and the fact that while it's always happened, 122 00:05:39.940 --> 00:05:42.420 why are we so worried right now about what we are doing 123 00:05:42.420 --> 00:05:44.380 as human beings to the climate? 124 00:05:44.760 --> 00:05:46.940 And I think that we have to be very careful 125 00:05:46.940 --> 00:05:49.240 about comparing very different scales of evidence. 126 00:05:49.560 --> 00:05:51.500 There is a geological scales of evidence 127 00:05:51.500 --> 00:05:54.260 where one millimetre of rock or one centimetre of rock 128 00:05:54.260 --> 00:05:56.660 can equate to 100,000 miles of land. 129 00:05:56.680 --> 00:05:58.040 And that's 100 years or 100 million years. 130 00:05:58.360 --> 00:06:01.420 And now we are able to look, because we have the science 131 00:06:01.420 --> 00:06:04.340 and we have the technology to be able to work out 132 00:06:04.340 --> 00:06:06.720 what the climate is doing on much smaller scales, 133 00:06:06.960 --> 00:06:10.520 we have much more detailed evidence of what's happening in our lifetime. 134 00:06:11.240 --> 00:06:12.600 Climate change is happening. 135 00:06:12.880 --> 00:06:15.740 We can see that the evidence is now fitting the models 136 00:06:15.740 --> 00:06:17.260 that were developed some time ago. 137 00:06:17.420 --> 00:06:19.220 And it is a fact of life. 138 00:06:19.320 --> 00:06:21.140 And it's affecting our everyday lives. 139 00:06:21.960 --> 00:06:24.060 I think in terms of the topic today, 140 00:06:25.500 --> 00:06:26.660 beyond the city life, 141 00:06:26.680 --> 00:06:29.500 there is a lot to lose outside of the city limits 142 00:06:29.500 --> 00:06:31.160 associated with climate change. 143 00:06:31.260 --> 00:06:33.040 But there is also potentially a lot to gain. 144 00:06:33.260 --> 00:06:35.200 And I think that's why this particular topic 145 00:06:35.200 --> 00:06:37.060 is of particular interest. 146 00:06:37.240 --> 00:06:38.740 It gives a particular difference 147 00:06:38.740 --> 00:06:41.020 to the usual debate on climate change. 148 00:06:41.760 --> 00:06:44.300 What I thought was I'd just give a brief rundown 149 00:06:44.300 --> 00:06:47.720 of my understanding of the carbon pollution reduction scheme 150 00:06:47.720 --> 00:06:49.820 just to set some boundaries. 151 00:06:50.640 --> 00:06:53.820 It sort of outlines the emissions trading scheme for Australia. 152 00:06:53.940 --> 00:06:55.840 Now, by that, it basically commits Australia 153 00:06:55.840 --> 00:06:56.660 to more and more climate change. 154 00:06:56.680 --> 00:07:00.940 It's also committed to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions 155 00:07:00.940 --> 00:07:06.180 by between 5% and 15% of 2000 levels by 2020. 156 00:07:07.280 --> 00:07:10.320 Now, the upper limit equates to a sort of per capita drop 157 00:07:10.320 --> 00:07:13.440 of about 41% over that period of time. 158 00:07:13.560 --> 00:07:18.200 The long term targets 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. 159 00:07:18.460 --> 00:07:21.560 But it's actually the interim targets that really matter. 160 00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:25.360 They are ambitious, but they're deeply challenging goals. 161 00:07:25.580 --> 00:07:26.660 And I think that they are equally important 162 00:07:26.680 --> 00:07:27.080 and they are equally important and they are equally important 163 00:07:27.080 --> 00:07:29.920 or better to than the per capita targets proposed 164 00:07:29.920 --> 00:07:34.060 by other developed nations such as in the EU, the UK and the US. 165 00:07:35.060 --> 00:07:39.420 But the Australia's 2050 target is unmoved from previous policy. 166 00:07:40.000 --> 00:07:42.640 But as I said, I think it's the short term targets 167 00:07:42.640 --> 00:07:43.820 that actually really matter. 168 00:07:44.140 --> 00:07:47.960 It's also about how we view the globe as a holistic being, 169 00:07:48.060 --> 00:07:49.160 as a holistic environment 170 00:07:49.160 --> 00:07:52.540 where all of the different environments interact with each other. 171 00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:54.780 And that's where I think there are some problems 172 00:07:54.780 --> 00:07:56.660 with the way that the politicians are dealing with this. 173 00:07:56.680 --> 00:07:58.840 The way that the politicians are viewing the Earth's environment. 174 00:08:00.000 --> 00:08:02.620 I would also like to say that I think that the scientific evidence, 175 00:08:02.700 --> 00:08:04.520 I'm not a climate change scientist, 176 00:08:04.640 --> 00:08:06.980 but I have looked very carefully at all of the evidence. 177 00:08:07.060 --> 00:08:09.340 And the evidence does seem to be coming across 178 00:08:09.340 --> 00:08:12.220 that for a safer global and Australian climate, 179 00:08:13.060 --> 00:08:17.420 we really ought to be looking at reductions of at least 20% by 2020. 180 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:20.620 So the current targets fall a long way short of that. 181 00:08:21.620 --> 00:08:24.560 Now, there are two reasons why Australia needs to have targets. 182 00:08:25.120 --> 00:08:26.360 We need to do our part 183 00:08:26.360 --> 00:08:27.620 in reducing global emissions, 184 00:08:27.820 --> 00:08:30.660 bearing in mind that we do emit more per head of population 185 00:08:30.660 --> 00:08:32.320 than almost any other country. 186 00:08:32.860 --> 00:08:35.860 But more importantly, we also need to show how serious we are 187 00:08:35.860 --> 00:08:37.680 to be able to put pressure on other countries, 188 00:08:37.780 --> 00:08:40.620 including the US, to act as well. 189 00:08:41.440 --> 00:08:43.980 Developing countries may well not act if we don't, 190 00:08:44.000 --> 00:08:47.280 but we also need to be very aware of the sort of global equity 191 00:08:47.280 --> 00:08:49.300 that is required in this equation. 192 00:08:51.360 --> 00:08:53.180 There's been a lot of recent debate as well 193 00:08:53.180 --> 00:08:55.860 about the relative merits of a simple carbon tax versus 194 00:08:55.860 --> 00:08:57.600 a more complex cap and trade system 195 00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:00.800 that's represented by the CPRS. 196 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:02.940 Now, I will use CPRS simply because 197 00:09:02.940 --> 00:09:05.460 carbon pollution reduction scheme is a bit of a mouthful. 198 00:09:06.220 --> 00:09:08.460 But it seems to me that a fossil fuel tax 199 00:09:08.460 --> 00:09:12.080 at the oil and gas wellhead or the coal mine gate 200 00:09:12.080 --> 00:09:14.820 with dividends returned in full to the public 201 00:09:14.820 --> 00:09:16.400 would be much simpler. 202 00:09:16.680 --> 00:09:19.620 Although there's nothing inherently wrong with a cap and trade scheme. 203 00:09:20.220 --> 00:09:22.040 Although I think that you have to be, 204 00:09:22.200 --> 00:09:25.280 you have to take in mind a much broader holistic view 205 00:09:25.280 --> 00:09:26.200 of what that means. 206 00:09:27.220 --> 00:09:30.400 The two most obvious problems to me with the CPRS version 207 00:09:30.400 --> 00:09:33.580 of the cap and trade that's been presented in legislation here 208 00:09:34.140 --> 00:09:36.760 is that the proposed cap is far too weak. 209 00:09:37.100 --> 00:09:40.360 And free permits apparently seem to be being handed out 210 00:09:40.360 --> 00:09:41.880 to some of the heavy polluters. 211 00:09:42.540 --> 00:09:44.900 Of course, the other major issue is that the legislation 212 00:09:44.900 --> 00:09:47.160 doesn't include any measures to reduce emissions 213 00:09:47.160 --> 00:09:51.200 from major non-energy sectors such as agriculture and land clearing. 214 00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:53.940 And yet those areas are inherently, 215 00:09:55.280 --> 00:09:57.780 importantly, important to the whole system. 216 00:09:58.140 --> 00:09:59.680 But of course, they're not quantitative. 217 00:09:59.980 --> 00:10:03.620 It's extremely difficult to work out how those systems interact. 218 00:10:03.880 --> 00:10:05.660 And indeed, should we even be trying to work out 219 00:10:05.660 --> 00:10:06.620 how those systems interact? 220 00:10:06.900 --> 00:10:10.380 They are very different natural systems to the industrial systems. 221 00:10:10.700 --> 00:10:14.820 And it seems to me to be a very unnatural merging of the two 222 00:10:14.820 --> 00:10:17.180 to try and bring them all into one single scheme. 223 00:10:18.940 --> 00:10:21.220 Australia has one of the highest per capita emission rates 224 00:10:21.220 --> 00:10:22.840 in the industrial world, as I've said. 225 00:10:22.900 --> 00:10:24.860 And as a carbon-intensive economy, 226 00:10:25.280 --> 00:10:26.880 it should actually be easier for us in a way 227 00:10:26.880 --> 00:10:28.260 to reduce our carbon emissions. 228 00:10:28.720 --> 00:10:31.800 If I can use an analogy, if someone is very obese, 229 00:10:31.880 --> 00:10:34.840 it's relatively easier for them to lose five kilograms in weight 230 00:10:34.840 --> 00:10:37.720 than it is for somebody who starts out underweight. 231 00:10:38.900 --> 00:10:41.280 But we can't forget the other half of the equation. 232 00:10:42.360 --> 00:10:44.100 Australia's per capita emission levels 233 00:10:44.100 --> 00:10:47.140 are about double that of Europe and four times the world average. 234 00:10:47.620 --> 00:10:50.900 That means Australia's fair share is to cut faster than others 235 00:10:50.900 --> 00:10:52.300 and in greater terms. 236 00:10:53.580 --> 00:10:55.260 However, I have to say that the per capita emissions levels 237 00:10:55.260 --> 00:10:55.720 are not the same as the per capita emissions levels 238 00:10:55.720 --> 00:10:58.580 The per capita targets in the scheme are based on a 45% increase 239 00:10:58.580 --> 00:11:02.160 in Australia's population between 1990 and 2020, 240 00:11:02.540 --> 00:11:06.220 which is clearly not a fair game in terms of the global market. 241 00:11:06.940 --> 00:11:11.800 Our targets need to be calculated on a base level of population growth, 242 00:11:11.920 --> 00:11:13.260 not what we aspire to. 243 00:11:13.600 --> 00:11:15.200 Otherwise, countries like China, 244 00:11:15.260 --> 00:11:16.880 who are limiting their population growth, 245 00:11:17.080 --> 00:11:18.260 are actually going to be... 246 00:11:19.420 --> 00:11:20.240 Excuse me. 247 00:11:20.440 --> 00:11:22.200 Are actually going to be... 248 00:11:23.820 --> 00:11:25.240 They're not going to benefit from it. 249 00:11:25.260 --> 00:11:25.720 They're not going to benefit from that. 250 00:11:25.820 --> 00:11:29.360 And I don't think that that's an acceptable international position. 251 00:11:29.580 --> 00:11:30.540 Thank you very much. 252 00:11:31.380 --> 00:11:35.480 And it could indeed severely block any international agreement. 253 00:11:36.420 --> 00:11:39.840 I think we are right to focus on a per capita emission, 254 00:11:40.500 --> 00:11:42.780 but it's only in an equitable manner 255 00:11:42.780 --> 00:11:44.320 so that developing countries 256 00:11:44.320 --> 00:11:47.640 who will inevitably increase their carbon emissions 257 00:11:47.640 --> 00:11:52.800 are not in any way blocked from being able to participate 258 00:11:52.800 --> 00:11:55.240 in a global reduction system. 259 00:11:56.240 --> 00:11:59.360 I think that in order for us in Australia 260 00:11:59.360 --> 00:12:00.820 to achieve some of our cuts, 261 00:12:00.940 --> 00:12:03.120 we will need to have a revolution. 262 00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:05.340 We will need to have a revolution 263 00:12:05.340 --> 00:12:07.820 in the way that we generate and conserve energy. 264 00:12:08.840 --> 00:12:10.160 In a mere 12 years, 265 00:12:10.240 --> 00:12:12.200 we only have 12 years in which to do this, 266 00:12:12.380 --> 00:12:15.120 we will have to turn around decades of rampant growth 267 00:12:15.120 --> 00:12:16.780 in carbon emissions and energy supply 268 00:12:16.780 --> 00:12:18.180 from fossil fuel industries. 269 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:23.020 And whether the CPRS plan is sufficiently revolutionary and robust, 270 00:12:23.320 --> 00:12:25.140 I really am not sure that it is. 271 00:12:25.260 --> 00:12:28.660 I think it's a matter that's been currently very widely debated. 272 00:12:29.880 --> 00:12:32.440 Of course, Australia has much more renewable energy potential 273 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:33.980 than almost any other country, 274 00:12:34.100 --> 00:12:36.500 especially solar energy and geothermal energy, 275 00:12:36.620 --> 00:12:37.700 wind and tidal power. 276 00:12:38.020 --> 00:12:40.680 And it's time that we really cashed in on that opportunity. 277 00:12:41.380 --> 00:12:43.820 We also have an extraordinary rural community, 278 00:12:44.060 --> 00:12:45.860 people who really understand 279 00:12:45.860 --> 00:12:48.580 working on the edge of environmental limits. 280 00:12:48.840 --> 00:12:52.100 I think more than any other agricultural community, 281 00:12:52.440 --> 00:12:55.240 for example, in, say, Europe or North America, 282 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:57.900 I think the Australian agricultural community 283 00:12:57.900 --> 00:12:59.820 really understands adaptation. 284 00:13:00.900 --> 00:13:02.720 I've had the great honour and privilege 285 00:13:02.720 --> 00:13:04.780 to be able to travel throughout rural Australia 286 00:13:04.780 --> 00:13:06.600 throughout the last two years, 287 00:13:06.680 --> 00:13:07.920 particularly in South Australia. 288 00:13:08.300 --> 00:13:10.120 And farmers know what they are doing. 289 00:13:10.320 --> 00:13:12.220 They can see the changes that are happening 290 00:13:12.220 --> 00:13:13.900 and they have an extraordinary capacity 291 00:13:13.900 --> 00:13:16.420 to adapt to those changing conditions. 292 00:13:17.140 --> 00:13:19.560 I think that one of the major failings 293 00:13:19.560 --> 00:13:21.860 that I can see from something like the CPRS 294 00:13:21.860 --> 00:13:24.760 is that perhaps the government is not paying enough attention 295 00:13:24.760 --> 00:13:27.600 to the wealth of knowledge that is currently in Australia 296 00:13:27.600 --> 00:13:29.260 around land use 297 00:13:29.260 --> 00:13:32.960 and trying to integrate that into some kind of policy 298 00:13:32.960 --> 00:13:35.160 or have an equivalent policy 299 00:13:35.160 --> 00:13:38.020 that's running alongside the more industrial-based policies. 300 00:13:39.040 --> 00:13:40.440 I think it is going to need 301 00:13:40.440 --> 00:13:42.380 a truly revolutionary set of policies 302 00:13:42.380 --> 00:13:44.200 and very strong political will 303 00:13:44.200 --> 00:13:46.940 to rapidly wean ourselves off a carbon-based energy. 304 00:13:47.720 --> 00:13:50.440 Yet from a fossil fuel supply, 305 00:13:50.600 --> 00:13:52.140 the peak oil, gas and coal, 306 00:13:52.260 --> 00:13:53.320 and a climate perspective, 307 00:13:53.480 --> 00:13:54.740 that is exactly what we're going to need. 308 00:13:54.740 --> 00:13:55.440 That is exactly what we must do. 309 00:13:55.740 --> 00:13:57.360 From an agricultural perspective, 310 00:13:57.740 --> 00:13:58.800 from a water perspective, 311 00:13:59.000 --> 00:14:00.640 that is exactly what we must do. 312 00:14:01.340 --> 00:14:03.720 Even to achieve the cuts announced by the government, 313 00:14:03.980 --> 00:14:06.580 we must implement really radical improvements 314 00:14:06.580 --> 00:14:07.960 in our energy efficiency 315 00:14:07.960 --> 00:14:10.120 and develop agricultural policies 316 00:14:10.120 --> 00:14:13.060 that allow us to have an entirely new infrastructure 317 00:14:13.060 --> 00:14:14.840 in the way that we use the land 318 00:14:14.840 --> 00:14:16.580 and the way that we interact with the land. 319 00:14:17.800 --> 00:14:20.120 So one has to ask the question, I think, 320 00:14:20.180 --> 00:14:22.040 why not commit to going all the way 321 00:14:22.040 --> 00:14:23.580 and actually solving the crisis 322 00:14:23.580 --> 00:14:24.720 before it has time to happen? 323 00:14:24.740 --> 00:14:27.200 Rather than merely half-solve it 324 00:14:27.200 --> 00:14:29.320 in such a way that we can best do 325 00:14:29.320 --> 00:14:31.060 is to inevitably delay the crunch. 326 00:14:31.400 --> 00:14:32.480 Thank you very much. 327 00:14:34.360 --> 00:14:34.880 APPLAUSE 328 00:14:41.260 --> 00:14:42.500 Thank you, Suzanne, 329 00:14:42.840 --> 00:14:45.180 and that was certainly a vote of confidence 330 00:14:45.180 --> 00:14:47.740 in South Australian and Australian farmers, 331 00:14:47.840 --> 00:14:48.920 so the farmers in the audience, 332 00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:50.040 please take note of that. 333 00:14:50.480 --> 00:14:53.020 The gentleman that I'm going to introduce next 334 00:14:53.020 --> 00:14:54.720 is quite famous, 335 00:14:54.740 --> 00:14:55.180 quite fascinating, 336 00:14:55.440 --> 00:14:59.200 in that he has worked with two of the more interesting politicians 337 00:14:59.900 --> 00:15:01.760 that we have in this country. 338 00:15:02.200 --> 00:15:05.120 And I'll tell you more about that in a second. 339 00:15:05.260 --> 00:15:06.720 It's sort of fascinating, isn't it? 340 00:15:06.720 --> 00:15:07.600 Especially federally. 341 00:15:07.680 --> 00:15:10.540 We seem on both sides of the political fence 342 00:15:10.540 --> 00:15:13.400 to have leaders who aren't particularly charismatic, 343 00:15:13.480 --> 00:15:17.060 but they're into that kind of bland sort of talk show host kind of thing. 344 00:15:17.200 --> 00:15:19.780 But he's worked with more of the two interesting ones. 345 00:15:20.020 --> 00:15:21.380 His name is Richard Dennis. 346 00:15:21.980 --> 00:15:23.600 He's Dr Richard Dennis, 347 00:15:23.700 --> 00:15:24.720 and he's the executive director 348 00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:26.300 of the Australia Institute, 349 00:15:26.720 --> 00:15:28.620 a public policy think tank 350 00:15:28.620 --> 00:15:31.220 based in the national capital of Canberra. 351 00:15:31.460 --> 00:15:33.160 An economist by training, 352 00:15:33.280 --> 00:15:36.380 Richard's research centres on the design of market regulation, 353 00:15:36.760 --> 00:15:40.320 particularly in the areas of the labour market and the environment. 354 00:15:40.620 --> 00:15:44.600 He has published a number of articles and monographs... 355 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:46.200 I don't know if I know what that is. 356 00:15:46.300 --> 00:15:48.080 ..on new measures of national wellbeing 357 00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:49.460 based around the construction 358 00:15:49.460 --> 00:15:52.260 of the Genuine Progress Indicator for Australia. 359 00:15:52.840 --> 00:15:54.660 Prior to his current position, 360 00:15:54.720 --> 00:15:58.520 Richard worked as strategy adviser to Senator Bob Brown, 361 00:15:58.700 --> 00:16:00.620 one of our more interesting politicians, 362 00:16:01.000 --> 00:16:02.520 leader of the South Australian... 363 00:16:02.520 --> 00:16:04.520 Not the South Australian, of the Australian Greens, 364 00:16:04.760 --> 00:16:06.300 and he was also chief of staff 365 00:16:06.300 --> 00:16:08.300 to the then leader of the Australian Democrats, 366 00:16:08.700 --> 00:16:10.620 Senator Natasha Stott-Despoja, 367 00:16:10.760 --> 00:16:14.180 and has lectured in economics at the University of Newcastle. 368 00:16:14.280 --> 00:16:15.780 He is an adjunct professor 369 00:16:15.780 --> 00:16:18.180 at the Crawford School of Economics and Government, 370 00:16:18.440 --> 00:16:19.720 Australian National University, 371 00:16:20.500 --> 00:16:23.360 has published widely in academic journals and newspapers, 372 00:16:23.660 --> 00:16:24.700 and is the co-director of the Newcastle Institute, 373 00:16:24.700 --> 00:16:25.520 and is also author of 374 00:16:26.640 --> 00:16:29.240 Affluenza, When Too Much Is Never Enough, 375 00:16:29.480 --> 00:16:32.080 and Australian Policy, Theory and Practice. 376 00:16:32.280 --> 00:16:35.400 Please welcome the man with two Christian names, 377 00:16:35.620 --> 00:16:37.120 Richard Dennis, to the floor. 378 00:16:38.300 --> 00:16:38.860 APPLAUSE 379 00:16:45.040 --> 00:16:46.040 Thank you. 380 00:16:46.120 --> 00:16:49.700 Thank you very much for the lengthy introduction. 381 00:16:50.300 --> 00:16:52.560 In case anyone left anything off my CV, 382 00:16:52.620 --> 00:16:54.680 I'm sorry, whoever provided you with all the information. 383 00:16:54.680 --> 00:16:54.740 I'm sorry for all that. 384 00:16:54.920 --> 00:16:57.920 But, yeah, look, thanks for having me today. 385 00:16:58.020 --> 00:17:01.320 And what an important topic and how important to see... 386 00:17:01.320 --> 00:17:04.980 I think how significant to see how many people 387 00:17:04.980 --> 00:17:08.340 willing to come out and think and talk about climate change 388 00:17:09.040 --> 00:17:10.480 on a Sunday morning. 389 00:17:11.320 --> 00:17:16.020 Look, let me just take off from where the last speaker left off. 390 00:17:16.040 --> 00:17:19.280 I couldn't agree more that climate change 391 00:17:19.280 --> 00:17:23.120 and climate change policy is going to be central 392 00:17:23.120 --> 00:17:26.000 to how this century unfolds. 393 00:17:26.000 --> 00:17:29.840 And I share...I share and I have very deep concerns 394 00:17:29.840 --> 00:17:33.640 that the current proposals to tackle climate change 395 00:17:33.640 --> 00:17:35.800 are fundamentally inadequate. 396 00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:37.780 Fundamentally inadequate. 397 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:41.820 I'm choosing my words carefully to address the problem. 398 00:17:42.000 --> 00:17:44.580 And the problem is that this problem, 399 00:17:44.680 --> 00:17:46.100 the problem of climate change, 400 00:17:46.140 --> 00:17:49.820 is quite unlike most of the problems we're familiar with. 401 00:17:50.040 --> 00:17:52.940 Most problems that we deal with, 402 00:17:52.940 --> 00:17:54.560 especially in federal parliament, 403 00:17:55.740 --> 00:17:59.300 compromise and negotiation and middle roads 404 00:17:59.300 --> 00:18:01.020 and taking people with you 405 00:18:01.020 --> 00:18:03.680 and all these sorts of approaches often work. 406 00:18:04.220 --> 00:18:07.800 You want to have an argument about, you know, the minimum wage. 407 00:18:08.160 --> 00:18:10.780 You want to have an argument about tax rates. 408 00:18:11.060 --> 00:18:14.820 You want to have an argument about private and public health provision. 409 00:18:15.520 --> 00:18:19.460 Well, the answer you'll usually find is in getting the balance right. 410 00:18:19.680 --> 00:18:21.320 You know, somewhere in the middle. 411 00:18:21.480 --> 00:18:22.920 Everyone was a little bit... 412 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:25.100 We were a little bit right and we all had to settle for something. 413 00:18:25.520 --> 00:18:26.940 Well, the problem is, 414 00:18:27.140 --> 00:18:30.780 no matter how persuasive Kevin Rudd thinks he is, 415 00:18:31.000 --> 00:18:33.460 you can't negotiate with the atmosphere. 416 00:18:34.620 --> 00:18:36.200 Right? It's just... 417 00:18:39.120 --> 00:18:42.460 There's no negotiation taking place. 418 00:18:42.840 --> 00:18:44.860 There is just cause and effect. 419 00:18:45.580 --> 00:18:50.140 And what I find infuriating is that while, yes, 420 00:18:50.180 --> 00:18:52.520 this government has taken a big step, 421 00:18:52.920 --> 00:18:56.580 compared to the last government in admitting that we have a problem. 422 00:18:57.080 --> 00:18:59.180 Now, it's a bit weird that that would be a big step, 423 00:18:59.300 --> 00:19:00.740 but it's a big step. 424 00:19:03.400 --> 00:19:04.760 But how... 425 00:19:04.760 --> 00:19:06.500 This is the infuriating bit. 426 00:19:06.640 --> 00:19:09.080 How can you listen to the scientists 427 00:19:09.920 --> 00:19:11.700 who've diagnosed the problem 428 00:19:11.700 --> 00:19:15.120 and then ignore those same scientists 429 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:17.100 when developing a solution? 430 00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:21.320 You can't negotiate with the science. 431 00:19:21.320 --> 00:19:24.440 You can't negotiate with the atmosphere. 432 00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:27.040 And to use a simple analogy, 433 00:19:27.280 --> 00:19:29.020 if you were to go to the doctor 434 00:19:29.020 --> 00:19:31.240 and the doctor were to diagnose an illness 435 00:19:31.240 --> 00:19:33.820 and prescribe a course of treatment, 436 00:19:34.000 --> 00:19:37.720 and that course of treatment was expensive and distasteful, 437 00:19:37.740 --> 00:19:38.160 but they said, 438 00:19:38.220 --> 00:19:40.280 if you take this course of treatment, 439 00:19:40.520 --> 00:19:43.920 there's an 80% chance that you will make it, 440 00:19:44.180 --> 00:19:47.220 there aren't many people I know would leave, 441 00:19:47.580 --> 00:19:48.960 ring their accountant, 442 00:19:50.140 --> 00:19:51.300 discuss the problem, 443 00:19:51.320 --> 00:19:52.400 and take the price of the pills, 444 00:19:54.060 --> 00:19:57.260 and while still agreeing with the diagnosis, 445 00:19:58.060 --> 00:20:01.920 decide to take 5% of the prescription. 446 00:20:08.240 --> 00:20:10.000 I'm trying to be angry, 447 00:20:10.080 --> 00:20:11.900 and it's hard when you clap and you laugh. 448 00:20:12.280 --> 00:20:14.020 I mean, this is serious stuff. 449 00:20:15.320 --> 00:20:17.780 So, climate change is about risk. 450 00:20:18.080 --> 00:20:20.480 There is no certainty. Get over it. 451 00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:22.760 If you want certainty, forget it. 452 00:20:22.800 --> 00:20:23.760 You're in the wrong space. 453 00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:25.520 We don't know what's going to happen. 454 00:20:25.800 --> 00:20:27.420 But we've got a pretty good idea 455 00:20:27.420 --> 00:20:30.440 what might happen if we keep doing what we're doing. 456 00:20:31.560 --> 00:20:34.060 And we're not entirely certain, frankly, 457 00:20:34.220 --> 00:20:35.220 that we can avoid it, 458 00:20:35.260 --> 00:20:36.960 even if we give it a red hot go. 459 00:20:37.700 --> 00:20:39.200 But what we're certain of, 460 00:20:39.240 --> 00:20:40.920 at least scientifically certain of, 461 00:20:40.960 --> 00:20:42.460 is if we don't give it a red hot go, 462 00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:43.280 we're stuffed. 463 00:20:44.040 --> 00:20:46.620 And 5% or 25%, 464 00:20:47.240 --> 00:20:49.180 regardless of whether that's better 465 00:20:49.180 --> 00:20:50.460 than what the Americans are proposing, 466 00:20:50.460 --> 00:20:53.480 again, the atmosphere doesn't care. 467 00:20:53.680 --> 00:20:56.500 And if you believe the science about the problem, 468 00:20:56.680 --> 00:20:59.160 you must believe the science about the solution. 469 00:20:59.580 --> 00:21:02.820 So, our political processes, I fear, 470 00:21:02.860 --> 00:21:05.680 are entirely inadequate for this, 471 00:21:05.760 --> 00:21:07.520 because as Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong 472 00:21:07.520 --> 00:21:10.440 would go out of their way to explain to you, 473 00:21:10.860 --> 00:21:12.640 well, we've listened to the scientists, 474 00:21:12.900 --> 00:21:15.500 and we've listened to the polluters, 475 00:21:15.660 --> 00:21:18.180 and we think we got the balance right. 476 00:21:20.460 --> 00:21:23.000 It's just no balancing to be had. 477 00:21:23.360 --> 00:21:25.540 You either listen to the science, 478 00:21:25.540 --> 00:21:27.720 or you listen to the polluters. 479 00:21:28.100 --> 00:21:31.100 And the whole political strategy of saying, 480 00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:33.240 well, if four people tell me I'm wrong, 481 00:21:33.400 --> 00:21:34.600 I must be right, 482 00:21:36.060 --> 00:21:38.140 well, if four people tell you you're wrong, 483 00:21:38.180 --> 00:21:39.000 you might be an idiot. 484 00:21:39.540 --> 00:21:40.240 You know? 485 00:21:40.820 --> 00:21:44.320 So this idea that I've upset the environmentalists 486 00:21:44.320 --> 00:21:45.820 and I've upset the polluters, 487 00:21:45.820 --> 00:21:47.740 so I must be on the right track, 488 00:21:48.820 --> 00:21:50.240 is kind of inconsistent. 489 00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:51.260 Consistent with logic. 490 00:21:51.340 --> 00:21:53.940 But, hey, someone voted for them. 491 00:21:57.240 --> 00:21:57.280 So... 492 00:21:59.100 --> 00:22:00.100 Well, it's democracy. 493 00:22:00.640 --> 00:22:02.460 You know, everyone in here is smart, 494 00:22:02.540 --> 00:22:03.880 but everyone out there is stupid. 495 00:22:06.060 --> 00:22:09.100 So climate change is about risk, OK? 496 00:22:09.180 --> 00:22:12.100 And how we want to cope with uncertainty. 497 00:22:12.100 --> 00:22:14.180 And farming, and I'll talk about farming 498 00:22:14.180 --> 00:22:16.600 and the impact outside of the city soon. 499 00:22:16.660 --> 00:22:18.680 Farming is about risk and risk management. 500 00:22:18.680 --> 00:22:21.820 And there aren't many farmers 501 00:22:21.820 --> 00:22:25.080 and there aren't many humans who I know 502 00:22:25.680 --> 00:22:30.460 who don't, in order to avoid catastrophic risk, 503 00:22:30.820 --> 00:22:32.580 take some precautions, 504 00:22:32.720 --> 00:22:36.180 even if those precautions, 505 00:22:36.280 --> 00:22:38.960 in the best-case scenario, are unnecessary. 506 00:22:39.800 --> 00:22:42.980 Now, the easiest example of that is, you know, 507 00:22:43.000 --> 00:22:44.920 someone in here might insure their car. 508 00:22:45.220 --> 00:22:46.920 I insure my car. 509 00:22:47.080 --> 00:22:48.600 And at the end of each year, 510 00:22:48.600 --> 00:22:50.980 I do not call myself an idiot 511 00:22:50.980 --> 00:22:52.620 because I didn't crash my car. 512 00:22:53.160 --> 00:22:55.120 Oh, I wasted my money. 513 00:22:56.080 --> 00:22:56.720 Waste. 514 00:22:56.980 --> 00:23:00.680 1,200 bucks, down the drain, didn't have a crash. 515 00:23:01.480 --> 00:23:03.000 Like most people, 516 00:23:03.120 --> 00:23:05.020 I spend some money 517 00:23:05.020 --> 00:23:08.360 in order to avoid the downside of catastrophe, 518 00:23:08.640 --> 00:23:11.140 and then I hope I don't have a catastrophe. 519 00:23:11.700 --> 00:23:14.120 Well, I hope we don't have climate change. 520 00:23:14.340 --> 00:23:17.580 I hope someone invents carbon capture and storage. 521 00:23:17.580 --> 00:23:20.040 I hope Ian Plymer is right. 522 00:23:20.920 --> 00:23:22.620 But hope isn't a strategy. 523 00:23:23.600 --> 00:23:25.900 So what I do in my personal life 524 00:23:25.900 --> 00:23:29.320 is I take precautions when the stakes are high 525 00:23:29.320 --> 00:23:32.500 and I take risks when the stakes are low. 526 00:23:33.440 --> 00:23:36.180 Parking fines in Adelaide are so cheap, 527 00:23:37.260 --> 00:23:39.240 I don't pay for parking. 528 00:23:41.740 --> 00:23:44.820 But the catastrophe of a $20 fine 529 00:23:44.820 --> 00:23:47.120 for someone that lives in a city 530 00:23:47.120 --> 00:23:48.840 where it's $10 an hour to park 531 00:23:49.860 --> 00:23:51.520 is not such a problem. 532 00:23:51.700 --> 00:23:54.260 But that's not how I make decisions 533 00:23:54.260 --> 00:23:56.880 about my car or my family or my life. 534 00:23:57.060 --> 00:23:58.100 And that's the point. 535 00:23:58.940 --> 00:24:02.540 It's not, are you a risk-taker or are you not? 536 00:24:02.780 --> 00:24:05.000 It's under the specific circumstances, 537 00:24:05.100 --> 00:24:07.620 do I want to take a risk or don't I? 538 00:24:07.860 --> 00:24:10.880 And as I said, most farmers that I've spoken to 539 00:24:10.880 --> 00:24:12.760 are quite cautious people. 540 00:24:13.040 --> 00:24:16.560 You know, they literally don't like to bet the farm. 541 00:24:17.120 --> 00:24:18.920 Why don't you bet the farm? 542 00:24:19.060 --> 00:24:21.860 Because if you lose, you've got nothing left. 543 00:24:22.300 --> 00:24:24.220 Yet when it comes to climate change, 544 00:24:24.420 --> 00:24:25.940 we seem willing to bet the farm. 545 00:24:26.440 --> 00:24:29.220 Let me talk briefly about carbon capture and storage, 546 00:24:29.400 --> 00:24:31.800 which is one way we could bet the farm. 547 00:24:32.860 --> 00:24:34.880 There's this fictional technology 548 00:24:34.880 --> 00:24:36.760 called carbon capture and storage. 549 00:24:37.140 --> 00:24:38.420 It doesn't exist. 550 00:24:38.740 --> 00:24:39.820 It's like werewolves. 551 00:24:39.860 --> 00:24:41.200 I'll come back to werewolves. 552 00:24:41.800 --> 00:24:43.760 At least I don't think they exist. 553 00:24:44.740 --> 00:24:47.100 Carbon capture and storage would allow us 554 00:24:47.120 --> 00:24:51.240 to take all the carbon that comes out of a giant power station 555 00:24:51.240 --> 00:24:53.520 and pump it underground and store it safely. 556 00:24:53.860 --> 00:24:56.300 If, if, if this worked, 557 00:24:56.460 --> 00:24:58.920 we could keep burning enormous amounts of coal. 558 00:24:59.440 --> 00:25:02.680 The problem is, no one's invented it yet. 559 00:25:03.840 --> 00:25:05.400 Ring Penny Wong's office, 560 00:25:05.660 --> 00:25:07.080 ring anyone's office and say, 561 00:25:07.100 --> 00:25:10.360 I'd like to go take a photo of a carbon capture and storage plant. 562 00:25:10.860 --> 00:25:11.920 Where do I go? 563 00:25:13.160 --> 00:25:15.020 You'll find a paddock somewhere 564 00:25:15.640 --> 00:25:17.100 where one day someone will say, 565 00:25:17.120 --> 00:25:18.780 I'd like to build one of these things. 566 00:25:19.200 --> 00:25:23.160 No one has invented carbon capture and storage yet. 567 00:25:23.320 --> 00:25:25.960 People are working on how to capture it. 568 00:25:26.080 --> 00:25:28.240 People are working on how to compress it. 569 00:25:28.440 --> 00:25:30.540 People are working on how to bury it. 570 00:25:30.740 --> 00:25:32.780 People are working on where to bury it. 571 00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:35.400 And for the last 15 years, 572 00:25:35.560 --> 00:25:37.260 they've been telling us it's 10 years away. 573 00:25:37.900 --> 00:25:39.500 Well, it's still 10 years away. 574 00:25:39.940 --> 00:25:41.820 The problem is, as we just heard, 575 00:25:41.860 --> 00:25:43.700 we need to reduce emissions by 2020. 576 00:25:44.220 --> 00:25:47.100 No one's invented carbon capture and storage yet. 577 00:25:47.120 --> 00:25:50.780 Yet, as long as that myth is out there, 578 00:25:50.900 --> 00:25:53.320 we can carry on business as usual. 579 00:25:53.440 --> 00:25:55.820 We can keep doing what we're doing, 580 00:25:55.900 --> 00:25:56.420 because relax, 581 00:25:56.880 --> 00:25:59.060 we're going to work on carbon capture and storage. 582 00:25:59.500 --> 00:26:01.220 Well, I'm glad we're working on it, 583 00:26:01.240 --> 00:26:02.100 do not get me wrong, 584 00:26:02.260 --> 00:26:03.400 but I'm not betting, 585 00:26:04.120 --> 00:26:05.760 I don't want to bet my family 586 00:26:06.520 --> 00:26:08.120 on them pulling it off, 587 00:26:08.260 --> 00:26:09.400 because they're not even close. 588 00:26:09.760 --> 00:26:11.720 And even if they figure it out, 589 00:26:11.800 --> 00:26:13.740 nobody thinks it's going to be cheap. 590 00:26:14.260 --> 00:26:17.100 Yet, you know the reason that we can't invest in windmills, 591 00:26:17.100 --> 00:26:17.780 wind and solar today? 592 00:26:18.960 --> 00:26:19.680 Oh, it's too dear. 593 00:26:20.820 --> 00:26:23.920 Well, the same people that want carbon capture and storage 594 00:26:24.540 --> 00:26:26.820 ignore the fact of how expensive it is. 595 00:26:27.460 --> 00:26:28.960 Now, just very briefly, 596 00:26:29.060 --> 00:26:31.060 so we can get to question and answer, 597 00:26:31.200 --> 00:26:33.100 I just want to show you, 598 00:26:33.140 --> 00:26:34.720 show you, not tell you, 599 00:26:34.760 --> 00:26:36.540 how emissions trading works. 600 00:26:37.080 --> 00:26:39.040 Because emissions trading is central 601 00:26:39.040 --> 00:26:40.960 to the way that we in Australia 602 00:26:40.960 --> 00:26:42.440 want to tackle climate change. 603 00:26:42.660 --> 00:26:45.620 And I fear that the government is relying on the fact 604 00:26:45.620 --> 00:26:47.080 that no one understands it, 605 00:26:47.100 --> 00:26:48.340 in order to build support. 606 00:26:49.280 --> 00:26:50.740 Now, that's a risk, 607 00:26:50.800 --> 00:26:53.560 a risk which I hope I'm about to explode. 608 00:26:53.920 --> 00:26:55.820 So, can my three victims, 609 00:26:55.900 --> 00:26:56.860 who have already agreed, 610 00:26:57.100 --> 00:26:58.780 just come and stare awkwardly, 611 00:26:58.800 --> 00:27:01.060 just stand here and stare awkwardly. 612 00:27:01.120 --> 00:27:02.560 Who came to my thing on Friday? 613 00:27:03.180 --> 00:27:04.480 Apologies, oh, quite a few. 614 00:27:05.140 --> 00:27:06.580 I haven't got that many jokes. 615 00:27:07.520 --> 00:27:09.620 Okay, here's how emissions trading works. 616 00:27:10.600 --> 00:27:12.500 It's called a cap and trade scheme, 617 00:27:12.620 --> 00:27:14.740 because we cap emissions trading. 618 00:27:14.940 --> 00:27:16.940 And we're just going to have our own 619 00:27:17.100 --> 00:27:20.080 little Adelaide emissions trading scheme here, 620 00:27:20.140 --> 00:27:21.000 where between us, 621 00:27:21.040 --> 00:27:23.460 we cap our emissions at three tonnes. 622 00:27:23.780 --> 00:27:25.620 And each person standing up here 623 00:27:25.620 --> 00:27:26.900 is temporarily a permit. 624 00:27:27.280 --> 00:27:28.800 So if you want to pollute, 625 00:27:28.820 --> 00:27:30.120 you've got to buy a permit. 626 00:27:30.320 --> 00:27:33.260 This is exactly how taxi plate licenses work, 627 00:27:33.400 --> 00:27:35.460 this is exactly how fishing quotas work. 628 00:27:35.640 --> 00:27:37.280 You say there's a fixed amount 629 00:27:38.100 --> 00:27:39.460 of something that can be done, 630 00:27:39.620 --> 00:27:41.640 and then we let you guys figure out 631 00:27:41.640 --> 00:27:43.540 who's going to own the right to pollute. 632 00:27:43.780 --> 00:27:46.400 How do we figure out who owns a waterfront property? 633 00:27:46.580 --> 00:27:47.020 We auction. 634 00:27:47.100 --> 00:27:47.220 We auction it. 635 00:27:47.660 --> 00:27:49.160 Under an emissions trading scheme, 636 00:27:49.320 --> 00:27:51.600 how do we figure out who gets the right to pollute? 637 00:27:51.780 --> 00:27:52.700 We auction it. 638 00:27:53.320 --> 00:27:55.320 Step one, however, is to say 639 00:27:55.320 --> 00:27:57.400 how much pollution do we want to have? 640 00:27:57.640 --> 00:27:59.800 Actually, can you all take a step back? 641 00:27:59.880 --> 00:28:01.960 Because I'm about to ask someone to take a step forward, 642 00:28:02.040 --> 00:28:03.320 and that would be precarious. 643 00:28:04.600 --> 00:28:07.920 Okay, so we set emissions at three tonnes. 644 00:28:08.280 --> 00:28:09.440 We've ignored the scientists, 645 00:28:09.700 --> 00:28:11.060 and the scientists said, 646 00:28:11.120 --> 00:28:12.240 oh, you probably want two tonnes, 647 00:28:12.400 --> 00:28:13.920 but we went, oh, we'll get the balance right, 648 00:28:13.980 --> 00:28:14.580 we'll go with three. 649 00:28:15.740 --> 00:28:17.360 So we've gone with three tonnes, 650 00:28:17.500 --> 00:28:19.200 and Brendan, if you can just stand over here, 651 00:28:19.320 --> 00:28:22.140 let's start by saying these two permits here 652 00:28:22.140 --> 00:28:23.360 are used by you and us 653 00:28:23.360 --> 00:28:25.000 when we use our air conditioners 654 00:28:25.000 --> 00:28:27.540 and drive our cars and do our household stuff. 655 00:28:28.000 --> 00:28:30.800 And Brendan over here is the polluter's permit, 656 00:28:30.960 --> 00:28:33.560 the evil permit that we use to make steel and aluminium. 657 00:28:34.580 --> 00:28:36.240 But under emissions trading, 658 00:28:36.320 --> 00:28:37.900 there's no such thing as evil. 659 00:28:38.180 --> 00:28:40.620 There's no better and worse taxi plate licence, 660 00:28:40.820 --> 00:28:41.860 there's just the taxi licence. 661 00:28:42.700 --> 00:28:44.500 So some of us in the household 662 00:28:44.500 --> 00:28:46.540 sector were concerned by the idea, 663 00:28:47.000 --> 00:28:50.480 quite concerned by the idea that we set a target of three tonnes 664 00:28:50.480 --> 00:28:51.960 when the scientists said, 665 00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:53.320 if you have three tonnes, you're stuffed. 666 00:28:54.060 --> 00:28:56.520 So in order to do our bit, 667 00:28:56.740 --> 00:28:58.680 we'll put insulation in our roofs, 668 00:28:58.880 --> 00:29:00.200 we'll put insulation in our walls, 669 00:29:00.360 --> 00:29:01.920 we'll never use our air conditioner again, 670 00:29:01.960 --> 00:29:03.500 and we'll feel guilty all the time. 671 00:29:03.680 --> 00:29:04.760 And let's face it, 672 00:29:04.780 --> 00:29:06.680 that's what tackling climate change is all about, 673 00:29:06.820 --> 00:29:08.380 feeling guilty all the time. 674 00:29:08.740 --> 00:29:10.920 So if you can just take a big step 675 00:29:10.920 --> 00:29:12.200 in the right direction for me, 676 00:29:12.300 --> 00:29:14.380 there you go, the household sector's leading, 677 00:29:14.500 --> 00:29:16.360 by example, it's doing its bit. 678 00:29:16.460 --> 00:29:19.560 We've reduced the household emissions by 50%. 679 00:29:21.120 --> 00:29:21.640 Unfortunately... 680 00:29:21.640 --> 00:29:23.340 Yay! Give yourself a pat on the back. 681 00:29:24.000 --> 00:29:24.860 Come with me. 682 00:29:25.820 --> 00:29:27.280 Because it's emissions trading, 683 00:29:27.860 --> 00:29:29.960 what do you think happens to our spare permit? 684 00:29:31.100 --> 00:29:32.420 Brendan snaps her up. 685 00:29:34.980 --> 00:29:38.820 If he wants to make more steel or aluminium, he can. 686 00:29:40.140 --> 00:29:43.480 Because if you don't want a taxi plate licence, 687 00:29:43.480 --> 00:29:44.460 you sell it. 688 00:29:46.200 --> 00:29:48.040 If you don't want to pollute, 689 00:29:48.840 --> 00:29:49.900 someone else can. 690 00:29:51.260 --> 00:29:54.460 It's the T in emissions trading scheme. 691 00:29:55.240 --> 00:29:56.700 This is not a secret. 692 00:29:56.840 --> 00:29:58.180 No one denies this. 693 00:29:58.260 --> 00:30:00.160 They just know that you don't know it. 694 00:30:01.940 --> 00:30:03.060 So once... 695 00:30:03.060 --> 00:30:03.920 So don't get me wrong, 696 00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:07.580 emissions trading can, can work. 697 00:30:08.120 --> 00:30:11.240 But if you set the target wrong at the beginning, 698 00:30:11.420 --> 00:30:12.480 it won't. 699 00:30:12.540 --> 00:30:13.840 It won't work. 700 00:30:15.240 --> 00:30:15.760 Imagine... 701 00:30:15.760 --> 00:30:16.940 Look what happened with water. 702 00:30:17.080 --> 00:30:18.640 We had a water trading scheme. 703 00:30:18.840 --> 00:30:19.360 Whoopee! 704 00:30:19.660 --> 00:30:20.580 What did we do? 705 00:30:20.640 --> 00:30:23.720 We gave away far too many rights for people to take water out. 706 00:30:23.840 --> 00:30:24.460 And you know what they did? 707 00:30:25.140 --> 00:30:26.300 They took water out. 708 00:30:27.600 --> 00:30:31.160 All right, if we give away too many permits at the beginning, 709 00:30:32.180 --> 00:30:33.520 nothing you do, 710 00:30:34.520 --> 00:30:35.780 you as individuals, 711 00:30:36.400 --> 00:30:37.720 nothing you can do, 712 00:30:37.840 --> 00:30:40.580 nothing the South Australian government can do 713 00:30:40.580 --> 00:30:42.360 can reduce emissions. 714 00:30:42.540 --> 00:30:45.620 Because we set a national cap. 715 00:30:46.600 --> 00:30:50.180 And all we're doing is haggling over who gets to do it. 716 00:30:50.340 --> 00:30:52.080 And as Brendan's going to talk about, 717 00:30:52.600 --> 00:30:53.880 you know, the only way, 718 00:30:54.000 --> 00:30:58.980 the only thing you can do is actually happens outside of your houses. 719 00:30:59.060 --> 00:31:00.680 Because the uncovered sectors, 720 00:31:00.820 --> 00:31:02.860 the agriculture sector, the forestry sector, 721 00:31:03.040 --> 00:31:04.760 you can plant trees in your backyard, 722 00:31:04.980 --> 00:31:05.800 no one can stop you. 723 00:31:06.800 --> 00:31:09.840 But turning your lights off and driving a Prius 724 00:31:09.840 --> 00:31:12.520 will just free up permits for someone else. 725 00:31:12.520 --> 00:31:14.040 So please thank our permits. 726 00:31:20.500 --> 00:31:22.020 So on that note, 727 00:31:23.680 --> 00:31:27.280 carbon capture and storage is not a silver bullet. 728 00:31:28.020 --> 00:31:30.520 Because, or you might think it's a silver bullet, 729 00:31:30.620 --> 00:31:32.860 but if we put all of our effort into that silver bullet, 730 00:31:33.520 --> 00:31:35.200 it's the silver bullet that's going to kill us. 731 00:31:36.000 --> 00:31:40.520 It's the risk that we can't take to put all of our eggs in one basket. 732 00:31:40.880 --> 00:31:42.500 Similarly, the emissions trading scheme, 733 00:31:42.520 --> 00:31:44.820 is this policy silver bullet. 734 00:31:44.860 --> 00:31:47.480 It says once we introduce emissions trading, that's it. 735 00:31:47.680 --> 00:31:49.340 Nothing you do matters anymore. 736 00:31:49.700 --> 00:31:50.900 We're stuck with it. 737 00:31:51.040 --> 00:31:53.680 Well, the policy silver bullet will kill us as well. 738 00:31:53.780 --> 00:31:54.260 Thank you. 739 00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:07.340 Don't you think Richard's the guy that we wish Peter Garrett was? 740 00:32:13.900 --> 00:32:15.960 On behalf of all bald men. 741 00:32:17.920 --> 00:32:22.020 You know, agriculture in South Australia contributes $5 billion 742 00:32:22.020 --> 00:32:23.740 to the state's economy. 743 00:32:23.900 --> 00:32:24.860 Isn't that extraordinary? 744 00:32:25.080 --> 00:32:27.960 And even though we've had a number of years of drought, 745 00:32:28.200 --> 00:32:30.240 it's still continued to grow. 746 00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:33.940 So what does that say about the future for agriculture in this state? 747 00:32:34.360 --> 00:32:38.620 Now, our next speaker is just the nicest man. 748 00:32:38.780 --> 00:32:42.260 Just having met him briefly and had a discussion with him, 749 00:32:42.280 --> 00:32:42.500 I think he's going to be a real pleasure to talk to you about. 750 00:32:42.500 --> 00:32:46.540 He's not only an academic and somebody that has extraordinary knowledge, 751 00:32:46.720 --> 00:32:47.820 but he's nice. 752 00:32:49.560 --> 00:32:51.800 This always comes as a surprise to me. 753 00:32:56.140 --> 00:33:00.860 And the bios are long, though my PA cut them significantly. 754 00:33:01.120 --> 00:33:02.580 They were each an hour long. 755 00:33:02.780 --> 00:33:08.200 But I think it's good to understand who it is that is speaking to you 756 00:33:08.200 --> 00:33:09.620 and bringing you these ideas. 757 00:33:10.220 --> 00:33:12.380 Brendan Mackey is a professor of Environment, 758 00:33:12.500 --> 00:33:15.260 Environmental Science in the Fenner School of Environment and Society 759 00:33:15.260 --> 00:33:17.600 at the Australian National University. 760 00:33:18.220 --> 00:33:21.980 Brendan's research, teaching and outreach is focused on understanding 761 00:33:21.980 --> 00:33:25.740 the role of the biosphere in Earth's life support systems, 762 00:33:26.000 --> 00:33:30.280 especially the climate system and how such understanding can help people 763 00:33:30.280 --> 00:33:35.460 and societies reorientate and re-engineer toward more sustainable ways of living. 764 00:33:35.820 --> 00:33:39.300 Brendan has a long-standing commitment to international dialogue 765 00:33:39.300 --> 00:33:41.160 and research on sustainability. 766 00:33:41.540 --> 00:33:42.480 He is a member of the National Association of Environmental Scientists 767 00:33:42.500 --> 00:33:45.480 He is a member of the Earth Charter Initiative International Council, 768 00:33:45.640 --> 00:33:49.380 a member of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Council 769 00:33:49.380 --> 00:33:52.520 and chairs the Council's Climate Change Task Force. 770 00:33:52.720 --> 00:33:56.140 He also works with the Convention on Biological Diversity 771 00:33:56.140 --> 00:34:00.380 in preparing scientific reports on the relationships between biodiversity, 772 00:34:00.860 --> 00:34:02.340 climate change and resilience. 773 00:34:02.920 --> 00:34:05.880 Locally, he's a member of the Cape York Peninsula Cultural 774 00:34:05.880 --> 00:34:09.400 and Scientific Advisory Committee, which provides advice 775 00:34:09.400 --> 00:34:11.700 to the Queensland State Government on areas 776 00:34:11.700 --> 00:34:15.500 of international conservation significance in the Cape York region. 777 00:34:16.060 --> 00:34:19.440 Brendan convenes a graduate course in climate change impacts 778 00:34:19.440 --> 00:34:22.920 and adaptation at the Australian National University 779 00:34:22.920 --> 00:34:25.760 and also co-convenes The Blue Planet, 780 00:34:25.960 --> 00:34:27.940 an introduction to Earth system science. 781 00:34:28.260 --> 00:34:31.140 Please welcome Brendan to the lectern. 782 00:34:33.580 --> 00:34:35.920 I'll remember to send shorter bios in future. 783 00:34:37.740 --> 00:34:39.080 OK, well, thank you. 784 00:34:39.080 --> 00:34:42.340 Thank you for coming here on a Sunday morning. 785 00:34:42.420 --> 00:34:42.900 I'm impressed. 786 00:34:44.400 --> 00:34:47.740 Could I just have a show of hands who was at my talk yesterday? 787 00:34:48.820 --> 00:34:52.060 OK, well, I'm only going to tell one of my three climate change jokes today. 788 00:34:52.240 --> 00:34:54.960 So just laugh politely when you hear it again. 789 00:35:00.180 --> 00:35:04.700 In climate change jargon, we talk about mitigation and adaptation. 790 00:35:05.840 --> 00:35:09.060 The word mitigation means we're trying to solve the problem. 791 00:35:09.060 --> 00:35:13.960 And the word adaptation means that we're now locked into whatever we do, 792 00:35:14.560 --> 00:35:17.240 unavoidable climate change, to which we have to adapt. 793 00:35:17.820 --> 00:35:18.380 Right? 794 00:35:18.500 --> 00:35:23.280 So, but obviously, the extent to which we have to adapt 795 00:35:24.440 --> 00:35:27.200 will depend on our success or failure with mitigation. 796 00:35:28.020 --> 00:35:28.580 So... 797 00:35:30.260 --> 00:35:33.800 And we've got to do two things when we're looking for mitigation, 798 00:35:35.200 --> 00:35:36.800 what are called mitigation measures. 799 00:35:37.160 --> 00:35:39.040 These are activities, or activities, 800 00:35:39.060 --> 00:35:40.760 or things we can do, they could be policy measures 801 00:35:40.760 --> 00:35:44.340 or actions we can take to solve the problem. 802 00:35:44.500 --> 00:35:47.340 And, of course, the mitigation problem is solved 803 00:35:47.340 --> 00:35:52.740 when we reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere 804 00:35:53.420 --> 00:35:58.300 such that the concentration of gases in the atmosphere stabilises 805 00:35:58.300 --> 00:36:01.660 at a level, or below a level, 806 00:36:01.800 --> 00:36:04.600 that avoids what we call dangerous climate change. 807 00:36:04.880 --> 00:36:08.940 And the scientific advice is that that equates to about 808 00:36:09.060 --> 00:36:14.280 an increase of a planetary average temperature increase 809 00:36:14.280 --> 00:36:15.420 of about 2 degrees Celsius. 810 00:36:15.940 --> 00:36:18.540 Now, a couple of weeks ago in Canberra, 811 00:36:18.580 --> 00:36:23.820 the maximum daily temperature for the day got to 2 degrees Celsius. 812 00:36:24.420 --> 00:36:25.840 And it was... 813 00:36:25.840 --> 00:36:29.020 So the daily range was minus 2 to plus 2. 814 00:36:29.140 --> 00:36:33.160 And you tell people 2 degrees temperature increase 815 00:36:33.160 --> 00:36:34.940 is, you know, dangerous climate change, 816 00:36:35.160 --> 00:36:36.220 and they think you're crazy. 817 00:36:36.360 --> 00:36:36.660 Right? 818 00:36:36.660 --> 00:36:40.160 But that's because that 2 degrees number, 819 00:36:40.340 --> 00:36:41.780 and you'll be hearing it all the time, 820 00:36:41.820 --> 00:36:47.040 of course, the G8 governments have kind of agreed to that kind of target. 821 00:36:48.280 --> 00:36:50.580 You know, it's a diagnostic indicator. 822 00:36:50.680 --> 00:36:51.360 It's a metric. 823 00:36:51.900 --> 00:36:53.920 The problem with talking about averages is, 824 00:36:54.060 --> 00:36:56.100 and here's my joke from yesterday, you know, 825 00:36:56.100 --> 00:36:58.020 there aren't many climate change jokes, 826 00:36:58.080 --> 00:36:59.200 and this is one of them, you know. 827 00:36:59.360 --> 00:37:01.220 No-one lives in a place called average. 828 00:37:02.000 --> 00:37:04.440 It's not very funny to begin with. 829 00:37:04.940 --> 00:37:05.380 But... 830 00:37:06.660 --> 00:37:08.460 You know, it's just a diagnostic. 831 00:37:08.560 --> 00:37:09.760 It's an indicator. 832 00:37:10.080 --> 00:37:13.720 If the planetary temperature on average changes that much, 833 00:37:13.840 --> 00:37:17.380 it's an indicator that we're going to have major changes 834 00:37:17.960 --> 00:37:20.660 in weather systems at regional and local scales. 835 00:37:21.020 --> 00:37:23.280 Anyway, in addition to... 836 00:37:23.280 --> 00:37:25.260 So when we have mitigation activities, 837 00:37:25.460 --> 00:37:29.220 we have to try and solve the problem faster than what we're creating it. 838 00:37:29.400 --> 00:37:29.660 OK? 839 00:37:29.720 --> 00:37:32.660 And that's what the previous two speakers have been talking about. 840 00:37:32.860 --> 00:37:34.760 You know, it's no good having a measure 841 00:37:34.760 --> 00:37:38.480 which doesn't fix the problem faster than we're creating it. 842 00:37:38.520 --> 00:37:39.480 So that's the first challenge. 843 00:37:39.620 --> 00:37:41.780 The second challenge, right, 844 00:37:41.840 --> 00:37:45.160 and this is where it comes back to talking about land, 845 00:37:45.400 --> 00:37:50.700 is we have to avoid what in climate change speak is called... 846 00:37:50.700 --> 00:37:52.260 We have to avoid perverse outcomes. 847 00:37:53.460 --> 00:37:54.640 And I don't mean... 848 00:37:54.640 --> 00:37:57.980 You know, I mean perverse has a particular meaning in this context. 849 00:37:58.780 --> 00:38:00.960 You know, that was another joke, but it didn't... 850 00:38:00.960 --> 00:38:02.300 It went down really badly, didn't it? 851 00:38:02.460 --> 00:38:02.620 Yeah. 852 00:38:04.260 --> 00:38:10.140 Which we avoid in having a measure to mitigate for climate... 853 00:38:10.140 --> 00:38:12.400 ..to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. 854 00:38:12.540 --> 00:38:15.740 We have to avoid causing bad things to happen somewhere else. 855 00:38:15.980 --> 00:38:16.460 OK? 856 00:38:16.640 --> 00:38:19.760 So one of the problems we face at the moment 857 00:38:19.760 --> 00:38:23.280 is that people are proposing to mitigate... 858 00:38:26.100 --> 00:38:29.700 ..climate change by doing stuff to land 859 00:38:29.700 --> 00:38:31.700 that's going to interfere with... 860 00:38:32.620 --> 00:38:34.880 ..many of the things we currently value from land. 861 00:38:35.100 --> 00:38:35.520 OK? 862 00:38:35.580 --> 00:38:39.940 So, for example, people are talking about turning land into charcoal farms. 863 00:38:40.220 --> 00:38:42.420 So rather than growing food, we grow charcoal. 864 00:38:42.680 --> 00:38:43.200 Right? 865 00:38:43.320 --> 00:38:45.240 So that's an example of a perverse outcome. 866 00:38:45.460 --> 00:38:49.360 Or some people are saying we should clear natural ecosystems 867 00:38:49.360 --> 00:38:52.200 and do something else with the land 868 00:38:52.200 --> 00:38:54.840 that might take up carbon more quickly. 869 00:38:55.480 --> 00:38:58.280 So in thinking about mitigation measures, 870 00:38:58.400 --> 00:39:01.400 we have to have measures 871 00:39:01.400 --> 00:39:04.140 that solve the problem faster than we're creating it 872 00:39:04.140 --> 00:39:05.600 and avoid perverse outcomes. 873 00:39:06.160 --> 00:39:09.340 So let me say something about the land generally. 874 00:39:10.680 --> 00:39:13.000 We've actually got two mitigation problems, 875 00:39:13.200 --> 00:39:17.700 and this is something we haven't quite got clear in our minds. 876 00:39:18.600 --> 00:39:21.560 And it's creating confusion in our policy. 877 00:39:21.720 --> 00:39:24.620 There's actually two sources of emissions of greenhouse gases. 878 00:39:24.800 --> 00:39:27.300 One is burning fossil fuels for energy, 879 00:39:27.440 --> 00:39:30.900 and the other is from land clearance, 880 00:39:30.900 --> 00:39:33.640 and degradation of natural ecosystems. 881 00:39:33.880 --> 00:39:39.400 If you look at the total amount of accumulated greenhouse gases 882 00:39:39.400 --> 00:39:42.020 that are in the atmosphere due to human activity, 883 00:39:42.300 --> 00:39:44.660 mainly over the last couple of hundred years, 884 00:39:46.240 --> 00:39:49.220 70% of those emissions are from burning fossil fuel 885 00:39:49.220 --> 00:39:52.620 and 30% of them are from land clearing and land degradation. 886 00:39:53.260 --> 00:39:55.300 Currently, on an annual basis, 887 00:39:55.300 --> 00:39:59.180 about 20% of greenhouse emissions are from land clearing. 888 00:39:59.340 --> 00:39:59.520 OK. 889 00:40:01.020 --> 00:40:03.900 Now, there's about 2.5... 890 00:40:04.460 --> 00:40:05.660 And I've got to use some numbers here. 891 00:40:05.720 --> 00:40:09.960 There's about 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon 892 00:40:09.960 --> 00:40:13.160 stored in terrestrial ecosystems on Earth, 893 00:40:13.320 --> 00:40:15.800 and about half of that is in the world's forests, 894 00:40:15.980 --> 00:40:17.840 because they're the most carbon-dense systems. 895 00:40:18.120 --> 00:40:20.880 That's 2 trillion tonnes of carbon. 896 00:40:21.140 --> 00:40:21.640 OK. 897 00:40:21.820 --> 00:40:26.200 There's 780 billion tonnes in the atmosphere. 898 00:40:26.200 --> 00:40:30.660 There's three times more stored in the vegetation and in the soil 899 00:40:30.660 --> 00:40:32.200 than what there is in the atmosphere. 900 00:40:32.920 --> 00:40:34.980 There's 5,000 tonnes of fossil... 901 00:40:34.980 --> 00:40:36.240 5,000 billion... 902 00:40:36.240 --> 00:40:38.340 5 trillion tonnes of fossil fuel left. 903 00:40:38.520 --> 00:40:40.100 There's a lot of fossil fuel to burn. 904 00:40:41.100 --> 00:40:42.400 So we have two challenges. 905 00:40:43.060 --> 00:40:46.780 One is we have to reduce... 906 00:40:46.780 --> 00:40:49.040 have deep cuts in fossil fuel emissions. 907 00:40:49.240 --> 00:40:50.820 And secondly, we have to work out 908 00:40:50.820 --> 00:40:52.500 how we can protect and restore 909 00:40:53.100 --> 00:40:56.640 what I call the green carbon that's stored in terrestrial ecosystems. 910 00:40:57.060 --> 00:40:59.620 Both of them present unique challenges to us. 911 00:40:59.620 --> 00:41:01.720 But they're quite different problems. 912 00:41:03.280 --> 00:41:05.320 Humans have lots of uses for land, 913 00:41:05.460 --> 00:41:07.340 like we like to eat, we need to eat, 914 00:41:07.420 --> 00:41:09.960 and we need to grow food, and we need land for food. 915 00:41:10.200 --> 00:41:14.300 So about half of the world's forests have been cleared. 916 00:41:14.660 --> 00:41:15.380 Australia's the same. 917 00:41:15.440 --> 00:41:17.140 We've cleared about half of our forests. 918 00:41:17.280 --> 00:41:18.800 A lot of that was for a good reason. 919 00:41:18.840 --> 00:41:20.500 It's to grow food. OK. 920 00:41:20.840 --> 00:41:22.020 This is a necessary thing. 921 00:41:22.660 --> 00:41:24.120 Globally, we've got a big problem. 922 00:41:24.320 --> 00:41:28.220 There's 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon, 923 00:41:28.340 --> 00:41:29.540 2 trillion tonnes of carbon, 924 00:41:29.620 --> 00:41:31.040 left in the world's forests. 925 00:41:31.660 --> 00:41:34.300 If we continue to deforest them at current rates, 926 00:41:34.360 --> 00:41:36.860 which is 2,000 a year... sorry, 2% a year, 927 00:41:36.920 --> 00:41:38.560 in 50 years' time, they'll be gone, 928 00:41:38.640 --> 00:41:40.920 and most of that carbon will be in the atmosphere 929 00:41:40.920 --> 00:41:42.700 and interacting with the oceans. 930 00:41:42.980 --> 00:41:44.160 So it's a big dilemma. 931 00:41:44.600 --> 00:41:47.520 You know, human populations are increasing. 932 00:41:47.920 --> 00:41:49.320 We need land for settlement. 933 00:41:49.420 --> 00:41:50.760 We need land for food. 934 00:41:50.900 --> 00:41:53.360 You know, how do we deal with that? 935 00:41:53.520 --> 00:41:54.980 You know, it's a very big problem. 936 00:41:55.220 --> 00:41:56.840 And over here, we've got this other problem 937 00:41:56.840 --> 00:42:00.840 of dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuel 938 00:42:00.840 --> 00:42:02.080 and the emissions from fossil fuel. 939 00:42:03.940 --> 00:42:07.740 The problem is the main policy responses 940 00:42:07.740 --> 00:42:10.720 our governments are coming up with 941 00:42:10.720 --> 00:42:13.060 are muddling those two problems together. 942 00:42:14.320 --> 00:42:18.600 Our government's proposed carbon pollution reduction scheme... 943 00:42:18.600 --> 00:42:20.660 Have I said that right? God, it's a mouthful, isn't it? 944 00:42:20.820 --> 00:42:22.020 It's a shocker. 945 00:42:23.880 --> 00:42:26.280 ..is going to allow polluters 946 00:42:26.280 --> 00:42:30.360 to supposedly offset some of their fossil fuel emissions 947 00:42:30.360 --> 00:42:32.180 by planting trees. 948 00:42:32.620 --> 00:42:33.800 Now, let's think about that. 949 00:42:33.840 --> 00:42:35.280 Where can you grow trees? 950 00:42:35.360 --> 00:42:38.040 You can grow trees where they naturally grow. 951 00:42:38.400 --> 00:42:40.080 Well, if there's room to plant them, 952 00:42:40.100 --> 00:42:41.800 it means the land was cleared. 953 00:42:42.100 --> 00:42:43.720 But what happened to all the carbon 954 00:42:43.720 --> 00:42:46.180 that was stored on that land before it was cleared? 955 00:42:46.440 --> 00:42:48.500 Well, it's combusted and it's in the atmosphere. 956 00:42:49.140 --> 00:42:52.020 So when you plant trees on previously cleared land, 957 00:42:52.220 --> 00:42:53.780 and that's the only place you can plant them, 958 00:42:53.920 --> 00:42:56.120 it is important, because what you're doing 959 00:42:56.280 --> 00:42:59.680 is paying back the carbon debt from when the land was cleared. 960 00:43:00.280 --> 00:43:02.800 You're not actually offsetting the fossil fuel emission. 961 00:43:03.460 --> 00:43:05.080 So just let me say something. 962 00:43:05.380 --> 00:43:09.860 So it's important that we do that, you know, to the extent we can. 963 00:43:10.000 --> 00:43:12.100 If it's land where we're growing food 964 00:43:12.100 --> 00:43:13.260 and we want to keep growing food, 965 00:43:13.440 --> 00:43:16.940 maybe there's some change we can make to the agricultural land practice 966 00:43:16.940 --> 00:43:19.800 that will increase the density of soil carbon in a useful way. 967 00:43:20.060 --> 00:43:21.660 But, you know, we just have to accept 968 00:43:21.660 --> 00:43:23.640 that growing food has a carbon footprint. 969 00:43:24.420 --> 00:43:25.760 It can be moderated, 970 00:43:26.280 --> 00:43:27.400 but it's the main carbon footprint 971 00:43:27.400 --> 00:43:28.960 from when the land was cleared originally. 972 00:43:30.160 --> 00:43:33.060 So, you know, there's just some reality 973 00:43:33.060 --> 00:43:36.520 we have to keep in mind there. 974 00:43:36.800 --> 00:43:38.560 So let's look at fossil fuel emission. 975 00:43:38.840 --> 00:43:41.980 Let's look at what happens to a pulse of carbon dioxide 976 00:43:41.980 --> 00:43:46.500 when we burn a tonne of coal or a tonne of oil 977 00:43:46.500 --> 00:43:47.600 or a tonne of natural gas. 978 00:43:47.820 --> 00:43:50.080 It actually goes on a very long journey. 979 00:43:50.860 --> 00:43:52.800 It goes up into the atmosphere, obviously. 980 00:43:52.980 --> 00:43:54.120 Then what happens to it? 981 00:43:54.120 --> 00:43:59.660 Well, some of it's taken up by trees and in the soil 982 00:43:59.660 --> 00:44:03.300 and spends a certain amount of time in these terrestrial ecosystems, 983 00:44:04.020 --> 00:44:07.080 be they agricultural or natural forests. 984 00:44:07.360 --> 00:44:08.880 And you can think of that as a buffer. 985 00:44:08.920 --> 00:44:09.780 It's like a sponge. 986 00:44:09.840 --> 00:44:11.340 It's kind of expandable. 987 00:44:11.440 --> 00:44:13.680 It can hold a certain amount of carbon. 988 00:44:13.800 --> 00:44:15.560 But the carbon doesn't stay there forever. 989 00:44:15.740 --> 00:44:17.780 The system leaks carbon as well. 990 00:44:17.880 --> 00:44:19.800 It exchanges carbon with the atmosphere. 991 00:44:20.380 --> 00:44:23.180 Some of the fossil fuel carbon's taken up into the oceans. 992 00:44:23.180 --> 00:44:25.000 Very complex process. 993 00:44:25.400 --> 00:44:27.100 But again, it doesn't stay there forever. 994 00:44:28.040 --> 00:44:29.760 It's released back into the atmosphere. 995 00:44:30.180 --> 00:44:35.120 So the ocean and the terrestrial part of the biosphere, 996 00:44:35.140 --> 00:44:36.620 you can think of as two big buffers. 997 00:44:36.940 --> 00:44:40.480 The pulse of fossil fuel CO2 goes into the atmosphere, 998 00:44:40.700 --> 00:44:42.880 stays in the terrestrial buffer for a while, 999 00:44:42.960 --> 00:44:43.820 back into the atmosphere, 1000 00:44:43.980 --> 00:44:46.620 gets taken up by the ocean, back into the atmosphere. 1001 00:44:46.920 --> 00:44:50.900 Eventually, it works its way down where? 1002 00:44:51.020 --> 00:44:52.060 To the bottom of the ocean. 1003 00:44:52.060 --> 00:44:54.560 It actually gets incorporated up into sediment 1004 00:44:54.560 --> 00:44:55.980 at the bottom of the ocean. 1005 00:44:56.400 --> 00:44:57.600 It's a natural process. 1006 00:44:57.860 --> 00:44:58.920 Geologists study this. 1007 00:44:59.000 --> 00:44:59.700 They know all about this. 1008 00:44:59.800 --> 00:45:01.200 But it takes a long time. 1009 00:45:01.660 --> 00:45:08.640 It takes about 300 years to get 75% of that pulse of fossil fuel CO2 1010 00:45:08.640 --> 00:45:10.720 to the bottom of the ocean in the sediment. 1011 00:45:11.140 --> 00:45:13.000 But there's 25% left. 1012 00:45:13.280 --> 00:45:15.260 And it's a really long tail. 1013 00:45:15.360 --> 00:45:17.820 And guess how long it takes to get rid of the last 25%? 1014 00:45:18.140 --> 00:45:19.000 Just guess. 1015 00:45:19.120 --> 00:45:20.020 Someone yell out a number. 1016 00:45:22.060 --> 00:45:22.440 Not quite. 1017 00:45:22.640 --> 00:45:22.980 Sorry. 1018 00:45:23.740 --> 00:45:25.040 30,000 years. 1019 00:45:26.340 --> 00:45:27.860 So it's 300 years. 1020 00:45:29.720 --> 00:45:32.560 Fossil fuel emissions are offset when they're incorporated. 1021 00:45:32.560 --> 00:45:35.220 The only way the planet gets rid of them 1022 00:45:35.220 --> 00:45:39.860 is by working through all these subsystems 1023 00:45:39.860 --> 00:45:41.700 to set them at the bottom of the ocean. 1024 00:45:41.720 --> 00:45:44.120 It takes 300 years to get rid of three-quarters of it. 1025 00:45:44.240 --> 00:45:49.540 And there's 25% that's continuing to interact with the atmosphere 1026 00:45:50.060 --> 00:45:50.860 kind of forever. 1027 00:45:51.020 --> 00:45:51.840 It's not really forever, 1028 00:45:52.060 --> 00:45:53.840 but as far as humans are concerned, 1029 00:45:53.960 --> 00:45:55.040 I think we can say forever. 1030 00:45:56.400 --> 00:45:58.800 So we need policies and measures 1031 00:45:58.800 --> 00:46:04.700 that enable us to dramatically reduce emissions from using fossil fuel 1032 00:46:04.700 --> 00:46:09.580 and help us prevent further emissions from the land 1033 00:46:09.580 --> 00:46:15.240 and restore some of the land's capacity to store carbon. 1034 00:46:16.400 --> 00:46:18.400 If the carbon's not in the land, 1035 00:46:18.500 --> 00:46:20.100 then it's in the atmosphere and ocean 1036 00:46:20.100 --> 00:46:22.040 and it's interacting with the atmosphere and ocean. 1037 00:46:22.040 --> 00:46:23.920 And it's causing climate change. 1038 00:46:24.140 --> 00:46:26.760 So the larger the pool of carbon 1039 00:46:26.760 --> 00:46:28.440 and the longer it's left in the land, 1040 00:46:28.600 --> 00:46:29.800 the bigger that buffer is, 1041 00:46:29.920 --> 00:46:31.920 we are helping the problem. 1042 00:46:32.460 --> 00:46:35.900 So we need to think about how we can prevent emissions from the land 1043 00:46:35.900 --> 00:46:41.960 and as much as possible try and increase the density of carbon on land 1044 00:46:41.960 --> 00:46:43.300 to the extent it's possible. 1045 00:46:43.460 --> 00:46:46.060 But where you grow food, it's very limited 1046 00:46:46.060 --> 00:46:49.980 because the main land use is growing food. 1047 00:46:49.980 --> 00:46:54.180 So what does this mean? 1048 00:46:54.320 --> 00:46:58.420 Well, I think in terms of a global cap and trade scheme 1049 00:46:58.420 --> 00:47:00.660 and a national cap and trade scheme, 1050 00:47:01.020 --> 00:47:03.440 if we're going to have them, 1051 00:47:03.480 --> 00:47:06.920 they should be restricted to trading fossil fuel carbon 1052 00:47:06.920 --> 00:47:12.520 and people should not be allowed to offset fossil fuel emissions 1053 00:47:12.520 --> 00:47:14.120 by planting trees. 1054 00:47:15.540 --> 00:47:17.480 However, having said that, 1055 00:47:17.640 --> 00:47:19.960 we need other policies and incentives 1056 00:47:19.960 --> 00:47:23.500 to help protect and restore the green carbon that is on the land. 1057 00:47:23.740 --> 00:47:25.380 Because we need to do that as well. 1058 00:47:25.700 --> 00:47:26.860 So how do we do that? 1059 00:47:26.940 --> 00:47:31.280 Well, I think the best concept there is payment for ecosystem services. 1060 00:47:31.820 --> 00:47:37.620 So you look at all the benefits we get from good natural resource management, 1061 00:47:37.920 --> 00:47:40.220 either in the rangelands or in our forests 1062 00:47:40.220 --> 00:47:42.200 or in intensive agricultural zones. 1063 00:47:42.420 --> 00:47:46.700 We get regulation of fresh water supplies. 1064 00:47:47.040 --> 00:47:49.940 We get protection of soil fertility. 1065 00:47:49.960 --> 00:47:52.620 We get fertility and productivity and habitat for wildlife. 1066 00:47:52.940 --> 00:47:54.620 And there's also a carbon benefit. 1067 00:47:54.880 --> 00:47:57.340 And all of those kind of come together. 1068 00:47:57.460 --> 00:47:58.940 It's a bundled set of assets. 1069 00:47:59.360 --> 00:48:04.140 So I think we need to be thinking about how we can pay land managers 1070 00:48:04.140 --> 00:48:05.880 and land owners for... 1071 00:48:05.880 --> 00:48:09.120 ..give them payments for this bundled set of ecosystem services, 1072 00:48:09.360 --> 00:48:10.800 which includes carbon. 1073 00:48:10.980 --> 00:48:14.500 Because if we take carbon out and treat it as a fundable value, 1074 00:48:14.640 --> 00:48:18.240 we start to distort what we're doing on the land 1075 00:48:18.240 --> 00:48:20.800 and we'll get perverse outcomes. 1076 00:48:21.640 --> 00:48:25.180 I think the simplest and most economically efficient 1077 00:48:25.180 --> 00:48:29.160 and powerful way of reducing fossil fuel emissions 1078 00:48:29.160 --> 00:48:30.980 is to put a tax on carbon. 1079 00:48:31.500 --> 00:48:34.160 You would immediately change the price of energy 1080 00:48:34.160 --> 00:48:37.580 and a whole bundle of alternative energy sources 1081 00:48:37.580 --> 00:48:40.180 would immediately become cost-effective, 1082 00:48:40.420 --> 00:48:44.960 including wind, including solar, and actually also nuclear. 1083 00:48:45.260 --> 00:48:47.180 Nuclear... This is an interesting one. 1084 00:48:47.180 --> 00:48:51.540 Nuclear power energy would start to become cost-effective in Australia, 1085 00:48:51.820 --> 00:48:53.260 which currently it isn't. 1086 00:48:53.520 --> 00:48:56.500 Now, that opens a whole other set of issues. 1087 00:48:56.800 --> 00:48:59.800 And again, this is why, as our first speaker said, 1088 00:49:00.040 --> 00:49:01.300 we need to take a... 1089 00:49:01.300 --> 00:49:03.300 We need to look at the whole system, 1090 00:49:03.320 --> 00:49:06.800 our whole social and economic and social and biophysical system. 1091 00:49:07.180 --> 00:49:10.560 We've got to fix the problem faster than we're creating it 1092 00:49:10.560 --> 00:49:12.380 and we have to avoid perverse outcomes 1093 00:49:12.380 --> 00:49:15.640 in the policies and measures we adapt for mitigation. 1094 00:49:15.640 --> 00:49:16.540 Thank you. 1095 00:49:25.140 --> 00:49:27.520 What I like about these three 1096 00:49:27.520 --> 00:49:31.620 is that they're not just really knowledgeable and good speakers, 1097 00:49:31.700 --> 00:49:34.400 but they're a lot of fun too and they make jokes. 1098 00:49:34.520 --> 00:49:35.100 I like that. 1099 00:49:35.420 --> 00:49:38.360 I'm also really happy that Brendan supports 1100 00:49:38.360 --> 00:49:42.140 what the South Australian Farmers' Federation calls stewardship payments. 1101 00:49:42.360 --> 00:49:45.620 For our farmers, it's something that we've been lobbying for 1102 00:49:45.640 --> 00:49:48.200 and we've been lobbying hard with both state and federal governments 1103 00:49:48.200 --> 00:49:48.920 to introduce. 1104 00:49:49.240 --> 00:49:52.120 They're the stewards of the land for all of the community 1105 00:49:52.120 --> 00:49:54.100 and they should be recognised as such. 1106 00:49:54.320 --> 00:49:59.140 Now, I'm going to open it up in a second for questions to our panel 1107 00:49:59.140 --> 00:50:02.240 and also to get some good discussion happening. 1108 00:50:02.500 --> 00:50:05.700 Need to let you know that I won't accept long-winded statements 1109 00:50:05.700 --> 00:50:10.020 that eventually are going to turn into questions in a half an hour's time. 1110 00:50:10.180 --> 00:50:12.100 Shut you down if you do that. 1111 00:50:12.660 --> 00:50:14.720 There are some microphones upstairs. 1112 00:50:14.920 --> 00:50:15.620 There's a microphone up there. 1113 00:50:15.640 --> 00:50:17.580 There's a microphone over in that corner. 1114 00:50:17.760 --> 00:50:20.320 And down here, there's a microphone somewhere. 1115 00:50:21.700 --> 00:50:24.160 Ah, in the middle of the aisle. 1116 00:50:24.300 --> 00:50:25.440 They told me the middle aisle 1117 00:50:25.440 --> 00:50:27.340 and, of course, I couldn't figure out where that was. 1118 00:50:27.480 --> 00:50:29.060 It's just there for those in front. 1119 00:50:29.100 --> 00:50:30.100 It's behind you. 1120 00:50:30.520 --> 00:50:32.700 Those at the back, you can see it. 1121 00:50:34.100 --> 00:50:35.680 Now, do we... 1122 00:50:35.680 --> 00:50:37.540 Oh, are they lining up upstairs? 1123 00:50:38.820 --> 00:50:39.340 Yes? 1124 00:50:39.760 --> 00:50:42.960 OK, when you ask your question, 1125 00:50:43.640 --> 00:50:45.160 can you just indicate 1126 00:50:45.640 --> 00:50:48.220 whether it's for one particular member of our panel 1127 00:50:48.220 --> 00:50:50.420 or you don't mind who it is? 1128 00:50:50.500 --> 00:50:52.200 If you want to tell us who you are, that's great, 1129 00:50:52.280 --> 00:50:53.420 but it's not totally necessary. 1130 00:50:53.780 --> 00:50:55.800 First question from upstairs, please. 1131 00:50:58.280 --> 00:51:00.100 My question's for Richard Dennis. 1132 00:51:00.380 --> 00:51:01.820 I come from Alice Springs, 1133 00:51:02.140 --> 00:51:04.640 one of the most remote communities in Australia, 1134 00:51:04.860 --> 00:51:08.660 and along the lines of energy, nuclear has only just been touched on. 1135 00:51:08.760 --> 00:51:11.400 We have a huge area around Alice Springs 1136 00:51:11.400 --> 00:51:13.360 being opened up for nuclear exploration, 1137 00:51:13.980 --> 00:51:15.500 including the Angela Pamela, 1138 00:51:15.640 --> 00:51:19.120 exploration which is 25km from our CBD 1139 00:51:19.120 --> 00:51:21.140 and within our water catchment. 1140 00:51:21.180 --> 00:51:24.800 As people can imagine, this is a huge impact on our town. 1141 00:51:25.460 --> 00:51:29.020 What can rural and regional and remote communities do 1142 00:51:29.020 --> 00:51:33.060 to mitigate the effects of our ability to oppose this 1143 00:51:33.060 --> 00:51:35.560 in a system which only provides us 1144 00:51:35.560 --> 00:51:38.400 with very limited representation in federal parliament? 1145 00:51:38.840 --> 00:51:41.480 And what are the impacts... 1146 00:51:41.480 --> 00:51:45.620 Is this marginalisation of rural communities part 1147 00:51:45.620 --> 00:51:50.600 of a system that centralises power and resource allocation 1148 00:51:50.600 --> 00:51:54.720 in the cities and therefore degradates regional and remote Australian areas? 1149 00:51:59.520 --> 00:52:00.320 Richard. 1150 00:52:00.800 --> 00:52:04.480 Look, I think the heart of your question is, 1151 00:52:04.640 --> 00:52:09.680 why is it that the minuscule percentage of our population 1152 00:52:09.680 --> 00:52:13.080 that owns shares in mining companies 1153 00:52:13.620 --> 00:52:15.600 has so much more influence 1154 00:52:15.620 --> 00:52:18.580 over the policy debate than you or I do? 1155 00:52:19.660 --> 00:52:23.260 Whether it's the expansion of uranium mining 1156 00:52:23.260 --> 00:52:27.240 or whether it's the fact that in order to stimulate our economy, 1157 00:52:27.360 --> 00:52:31.020 we're spending more money to expand coal export terminals 1158 00:52:31.620 --> 00:52:33.540 than we are to invest in renewable energy, 1159 00:52:34.180 --> 00:52:35.880 no matter where I look, 1160 00:52:36.020 --> 00:52:40.160 what I see is a disproportionate influence 1161 00:52:40.160 --> 00:52:43.120 of the people who profit from these activities 1162 00:52:43.120 --> 00:52:45.580 over the desires of yourself 1163 00:52:46.120 --> 00:52:48.620 and I think the vast majority of Australians. 1164 00:52:48.960 --> 00:52:52.840 So, you know, if you want to have a chat afterwards 1165 00:52:52.840 --> 00:52:53.720 or send me an email, 1166 00:52:53.860 --> 00:52:55.620 I'll happily give you some campaign advice. 1167 00:52:56.380 --> 00:53:01.960 But I think the main thing is to link up with people 1168 00:53:01.960 --> 00:53:05.280 who might not live near you but might share your concerns 1169 00:53:06.120 --> 00:53:11.360 and aim your frustration at the people you're most able to hurt, 1170 00:53:11.360 --> 00:53:13.540 not the people who are most responsible. 1171 00:53:16.680 --> 00:53:17.480 Thank you. 1172 00:53:17.960 --> 00:53:19.720 Question from the gentleman downstairs. 1173 00:53:21.080 --> 00:53:23.840 Yes, I'd like to ask Richard a question as well 1174 00:53:23.840 --> 00:53:25.480 because he mentioned Ian Plymer. 1175 00:53:25.780 --> 00:53:28.000 I know that no amount of good science 1176 00:53:28.000 --> 00:53:30.680 would get Ian Plymer to change his mind 1177 00:53:30.680 --> 00:53:34.360 about humans causing global climate change, 1178 00:53:34.580 --> 00:53:37.760 but if you had the chance to speak with him or to him, 1179 00:53:37.880 --> 00:53:39.680 what would you actually say? 1180 00:53:39.780 --> 00:53:40.460 Richard, thanks. 1181 00:53:40.760 --> 00:53:41.340 Well, look, I... 1182 00:53:41.360 --> 00:53:44.260 I love Ian Plymer's book Telling Lies for God. 1183 00:53:44.460 --> 00:53:47.980 I thought he applied his obvious intellect 1184 00:53:49.540 --> 00:53:51.340 to demolishing something, 1185 00:53:51.620 --> 00:53:55.920 but unfortunately, neither in Telling Lies for God 1186 00:53:55.920 --> 00:53:59.220 nor his recent book has he actually advanced something. 1187 00:54:00.180 --> 00:54:00.900 Like, what... 1188 00:54:00.900 --> 00:54:02.640 You know, he's an intelligent bloke. 1189 00:54:02.700 --> 00:54:05.900 What he's done is, you know, 1190 00:54:05.900 --> 00:54:08.700 put together a whole bunch of criticisms of something, 1191 00:54:08.920 --> 00:54:10.980 but he hasn't actually put anything up himself. 1192 00:54:11.600 --> 00:54:14.420 He's not actually saying what he thinks is going on. 1193 00:54:14.740 --> 00:54:18.220 He's just nitpicking at everything that other people are doing. 1194 00:54:18.380 --> 00:54:22.340 So, look, I think the question for Ian Plymer is, given... 1195 00:54:22.340 --> 00:54:25.620 Say there was a 5% chance that he's wrong, 1196 00:54:26.320 --> 00:54:30.680 and being wrong involves catastrophic consequences for mankind, 1197 00:54:31.600 --> 00:54:34.540 and given that the costs of tackling climate change 1198 00:54:34.540 --> 00:54:38.040 are, according to the Treasury modelling, minuscule, 1199 00:54:39.060 --> 00:54:40.940 wouldn't a rational person, 1200 00:54:40.940 --> 00:54:43.140 including a scientist like himself, 1201 00:54:43.480 --> 00:54:48.440 think the smart thing to do is to head off a potential problem, 1202 00:54:48.640 --> 00:54:51.720 and if he wants to gloat in 20 years' time, 1203 00:54:51.940 --> 00:54:52.960 well, I'll give him a medal. 1204 00:54:58.980 --> 00:55:01.240 If I can ask a supplementary question, 1205 00:55:01.340 --> 00:55:02.480 I think it's about page 20. 1206 00:55:02.640 --> 00:55:05.720 He talks about mathematical modelling, 1207 00:55:05.820 --> 00:55:07.740 and for a scientist, I just find it incredible 1208 00:55:07.740 --> 00:55:10.660 that even though mathematical modelling, I think, 1209 00:55:10.680 --> 00:55:10.920 is a science, 1210 00:55:10.940 --> 00:55:12.420 and it's essential, surely, for the sciences, 1211 00:55:12.480 --> 00:55:15.520 somehow, for climate change, it's just utterly wrong. 1212 00:55:15.680 --> 00:55:18.400 So I think the idea that he's going to come up 1213 00:55:18.400 --> 00:55:21.120 with some sort of coherent strategy or theory 1214 00:55:21.780 --> 00:55:23.700 is, yeah, pretty forlorn, I would think. 1215 00:55:24.040 --> 00:55:24.660 Oh, indeed. 1216 00:55:24.840 --> 00:55:28.900 But I guess all I'm saying is it's easy to be a sceptic. 1217 00:55:28.900 --> 00:55:30.000 We should be sceptics. 1218 00:55:30.020 --> 00:55:32.000 The word sceptic has been lost to us. 1219 00:55:32.040 --> 00:55:32.760 That's a real pity. 1220 00:55:33.820 --> 00:55:36.640 But, you know, we shouldn't just listen to sceptics. 1221 00:55:36.660 --> 00:55:38.880 We need to actually base our decisions on something. 1222 00:55:38.880 --> 00:55:41.400 Brendan, you'd like to comment? 1223 00:55:41.600 --> 00:55:43.880 Yeah, I think it's important to realise, 1224 00:55:44.600 --> 00:55:47.880 and I don't know Ian Pilmer at all, 1225 00:55:48.180 --> 00:55:51.040 so this is not actually a comment about him, 1226 00:55:51.140 --> 00:55:56.320 but a lot of the climate change science scepticism 1227 00:55:56.320 --> 00:56:02.040 has been shown to be funded by vested interests. 1228 00:56:02.520 --> 00:56:06.180 And the best and the most concrete example we have of this 1229 00:56:06.180 --> 00:56:08.820 is last year at the AGM, 1230 00:56:08.820 --> 00:56:10.140 at the Bank of America, 1231 00:56:10.700 --> 00:56:13.300 there was a shareholder initiative 1232 00:56:14.620 --> 00:56:18.300 forced on the agenda by a shareholder action group, 1233 00:56:18.380 --> 00:56:20.820 which were all the Rockefeller, 1234 00:56:21.360 --> 00:56:23.240 the living members of the Rockefeller family, 1235 00:56:23.540 --> 00:56:26.180 whose great-grandfather had founded the Bank of America, 1236 00:56:26.340 --> 00:56:28.120 who were still shareholders. 1237 00:56:28.360 --> 00:56:30.040 Of course, one of them had found out 1238 00:56:30.040 --> 00:56:33.080 that the board had been funding to the tune of... 1239 00:56:33.080 --> 00:56:36.640 It was a lot of money, something like half a million US a year, 1240 00:56:37.980 --> 00:56:38.800 a lot of money, 1241 00:56:38.800 --> 00:56:39.760 and it was funded by one of the major 1242 00:56:39.760 --> 00:56:42.540 global climate change science sceptic groups. 1243 00:56:44.400 --> 00:56:47.580 And what they did was force them to stop doing it 1244 00:56:47.580 --> 00:56:51.340 and put the money into alternative energy research. 1245 00:56:52.900 --> 00:56:55.520 So, you know, a lot of the... 1246 00:56:55.520 --> 00:56:57.460 And I say this is not a comment about Ian Pilmer, 1247 00:56:57.560 --> 00:56:58.240 because I don't know him, 1248 00:56:58.380 --> 00:57:01.960 but I actually have a colleague 1249 00:57:01.960 --> 00:57:04.880 who was a member of this international organisation. 1250 00:57:05.160 --> 00:57:08.080 They get their money from some very interesting sources. 1251 00:57:08.800 --> 00:57:09.120 It's not accidental. 1252 00:57:09.460 --> 00:57:10.620 So what you're saying, Brendan, 1253 00:57:10.720 --> 00:57:12.320 is we should do a bit of a background check, 1254 00:57:12.380 --> 00:57:14.100 see where Ian's money's coming from. 1255 00:57:14.540 --> 00:57:16.720 No, I'm not suggesting that. I'm just saying... 1256 00:57:16.720 --> 00:57:17.820 No, but maybe I am. 1257 00:57:19.800 --> 00:57:20.680 Thank you. 1258 00:57:20.880 --> 00:57:22.600 Any more comments from our panel? 1259 00:57:22.680 --> 00:57:22.940 Suzanne? 1260 00:57:23.400 --> 00:57:27.080 I think I work in the same department as Ian at the university, 1261 00:57:27.300 --> 00:57:29.340 so I'm not going to make any comment about Ian personally. 1262 00:57:29.460 --> 00:57:32.260 I think debate in science is incredibly important 1263 00:57:32.260 --> 00:57:34.600 and is a fundamental aspect of science, 1264 00:57:34.700 --> 00:57:37.700 but I think that it's a very easy target 1265 00:57:37.700 --> 00:57:40.940 to try and debunk and confuse a lot of people 1266 00:57:42.040 --> 00:57:45.160 by claiming a lack of evidence for climate change 1267 00:57:45.160 --> 00:57:51.000 when by far the majority of scientists can see that it is happening. 1268 00:57:51.360 --> 00:57:52.960 And despite the fact that... 1269 00:57:52.960 --> 00:57:55.340 I know that part of Ian's book is around looking at modelling 1270 00:57:55.340 --> 00:57:58.500 and saying, well, the modelling doesn't necessarily prove anything, 1271 00:57:58.680 --> 00:58:00.180 but what we are seeing is evidence, 1272 00:58:00.280 --> 00:58:03.080 and what we need to make sure is that when people are looking at this subject, 1273 00:58:03.160 --> 00:58:06.940 it is evidence-based, and we are seeing evidence of climate change. 1274 00:58:06.940 --> 00:58:09.640 There has always been climate change, and I don't dispute that. 1275 00:58:09.700 --> 00:58:12.220 That's one of Ian's basic premises. There has always been climate change. 1276 00:58:12.320 --> 00:58:15.620 I don't know any climate change scientist who doesn't agree with that aspect 1277 00:58:15.620 --> 00:58:18.380 of what Ian says, but it's the more recent issues 1278 00:58:18.940 --> 00:58:20.920 which we're looking at on a much finer timescale 1279 00:58:20.920 --> 00:58:23.520 than we've ever had the capacity to do in the geological record. 1280 00:58:23.800 --> 00:58:26.580 And those two different timescales are incredibly important 1281 00:58:26.580 --> 00:58:30.120 in understanding the difference between geological evidence 1282 00:58:30.120 --> 00:58:32.300 and the current evidence that we're looking at today. 1283 00:58:32.760 --> 00:58:33.200 Richard? 1284 00:58:33.380 --> 00:58:35.140 Just very quickly, in terms of evidence, 1285 00:58:35.140 --> 00:58:36.660 I mean, let's put this into perspective. 1286 00:58:37.480 --> 00:58:40.960 In 1991, we drove interest rates up so high 1287 00:58:40.960 --> 00:58:44.520 that we sacked a million people, the recession we had to have, 1288 00:58:44.760 --> 00:58:48.160 because we were afraid we might have a blowout in the current account deficit. 1289 00:58:48.440 --> 00:58:51.320 We just spent worldwide trillions of dollars 1290 00:58:51.320 --> 00:58:53.980 because we were worried that the banks might collapse. 1291 00:58:54.340 --> 00:58:56.200 We live in a world of uncertainty. 1292 00:58:56.560 --> 00:58:59.800 I can't tell you what the exchange rate will be in three months, 1293 00:59:00.020 --> 00:59:01.880 and we're saying to climate scientists, 1294 00:59:01.940 --> 00:59:05.120 if you can't tell me what the weather will be like in 70 years' time, 1295 00:59:05.140 --> 00:59:07.200 and you'd better get it precise, 1296 00:59:07.820 --> 00:59:09.920 we're not going to act because of uncertainty. 1297 00:59:10.440 --> 00:59:13.380 It's easy to play to this need for certainty, 1298 00:59:13.560 --> 00:59:14.600 but get over it. 1299 00:59:14.700 --> 00:59:15.980 We're not going to find it. 1300 00:59:16.300 --> 00:59:16.960 Thank you. 1301 00:59:17.100 --> 00:59:18.340 Moving on to another question. 1302 00:59:18.580 --> 00:59:19.840 Upstairs, please. 1303 00:59:20.900 --> 00:59:23.660 I've recently spent quite a bit of time in China 1304 00:59:23.660 --> 00:59:26.720 and recently at a friend's apartment in Shanghai. 1305 00:59:26.940 --> 00:59:29.560 I was running around closing all the lights off 1306 00:59:29.560 --> 00:59:31.500 until I went out onto the balcony 1307 00:59:31.500 --> 00:59:35.120 and noticed that most of the 22 million people in the city 1308 00:59:35.140 --> 00:59:37.920 had their air conditioners going day and night. 1309 00:59:38.200 --> 00:59:39.820 And then I felt a little bit small. 1310 00:59:40.160 --> 00:59:42.220 So my question is to all of you, 1311 00:59:42.240 --> 00:59:46.480 picking up on Richard's comments about climate awareness 1312 00:59:46.480 --> 00:59:47.600 is about feeling guilty. 1313 00:59:47.840 --> 00:59:50.160 How do we stop people from losing heart? 1314 00:59:50.340 --> 00:59:52.960 How do we stop just feeling guilty but hopeless? 1315 00:59:54.240 --> 00:59:55.880 Brendan, do you want to start with that? 1316 00:59:56.220 --> 00:59:56.620 Yeah. 1317 00:59:59.480 --> 01:00:03.580 Well, I think we need a number of things to happen in parallel. 1318 01:00:03.580 --> 01:00:07.920 I think hopelessness comes when people are fearful 1319 01:00:08.440 --> 01:00:09.900 and when they... 1320 01:00:10.540 --> 01:00:12.820 Well, hopelessness can come from a number of sources. 1321 01:00:12.900 --> 01:00:16.560 It can come from ignorance or fear based on ignorance. 1322 01:00:16.660 --> 01:00:22.100 So I think education about how mitigation is actually really easy 1323 01:00:22.100 --> 01:00:24.700 and how there's lots of ways in which we can adapt. 1324 01:00:24.940 --> 01:00:27.600 So there actually isn't... 1325 01:00:28.860 --> 01:00:29.780 There's not a... 1326 01:00:29.780 --> 01:00:32.500 There's all sorts of ways in which we can solve the problem 1327 01:00:32.500 --> 01:00:33.560 faster than we're creative. 1328 01:00:33.580 --> 01:00:34.980 We can avoid creating it and avoid perverse outcomes 1329 01:00:34.980 --> 01:00:37.760 and all sorts of interesting things we can do to adapt. 1330 01:00:38.040 --> 01:00:42.160 In fact, adaptation creates economic opportunities 1331 01:00:42.160 --> 01:00:44.700 for enterprising people. 1332 01:00:46.100 --> 01:00:49.140 Hopelessness also comes when our political systems 1333 01:00:51.260 --> 01:00:53.940 become dominated by people who won't show leadership. 1334 01:00:54.200 --> 01:00:57.180 We've all seen what's happened in the USA 1335 01:00:57.180 --> 01:00:59.340 with the election of President Obama. 1336 01:00:59.740 --> 01:01:02.300 I don't know if you watched... I watched CNN last night. 1337 01:01:02.300 --> 01:01:06.700 They had his live, his speech in Africa, in Ghana, 1338 01:01:06.920 --> 01:01:10.740 and here we had, you know, a man whose father was a goat herder, 1339 01:01:11.300 --> 01:01:14.500 you know, in Africa, coming back to talk to Africa 1340 01:01:14.500 --> 01:01:17.360 to say that the USA wants to be their partner, you know. 1341 01:01:17.460 --> 01:01:21.940 So, you know, leadership can make all the difference. 1342 01:01:22.160 --> 01:01:26.760 I think educated people can make the difference 1343 01:01:27.300 --> 01:01:29.220 and showing people that there are solutions. 1344 01:01:30.140 --> 01:01:31.740 Having said that, you know, 1345 01:01:31.740 --> 01:01:33.380 nothing's easy in this world. 1346 01:01:35.020 --> 01:01:36.900 Suzanne, can I ask you to comment? 1347 01:01:37.300 --> 01:01:41.380 I think the other thing that scientists need to do is to be... 1348 01:01:41.380 --> 01:01:44.120 We're quite often, particularly in this particular arena, 1349 01:01:44.180 --> 01:01:46.400 portrayed as the doom and gloom merchants. 1350 01:01:46.440 --> 01:01:49.140 We're providing the evidence, the possibilities, 1351 01:01:49.360 --> 01:01:52.780 the risk elements there. 1352 01:01:53.040 --> 01:01:55.600 And so the idea that there's nothing that we can do 1353 01:01:55.600 --> 01:01:58.620 is one that is very dominant, I think, in the media. 1354 01:01:58.860 --> 01:02:01.660 And I think what we need to do is say there are the risks, 1355 01:02:01.660 --> 01:02:05.020 we know what the evidence is, we know what the evidence is telling us, 1356 01:02:05.100 --> 01:02:08.740 we can make some predictions about what might happen, 1357 01:02:08.880 --> 01:02:10.800 but we also have enormous opportunities. 1358 01:02:11.300 --> 01:02:14.800 And I think that's where Australia in particular has enormous capacity 1359 01:02:15.380 --> 01:02:18.020 to sort of lead the world and say we can do something different, 1360 01:02:18.160 --> 01:02:21.640 we can look at new technologies, we can be innovative, we can take risks. 1361 01:02:21.720 --> 01:02:23.780 Of course, politicians don't like risk-taking. 1362 01:02:24.440 --> 01:02:30.000 And I think it's sort of inherently not in their genetics to enjoy risk. 1363 01:02:30.200 --> 01:02:31.640 But I think that we've got to be able to do that. 1364 01:02:31.660 --> 01:02:33.900 And I think we've got to be much more comfortable as societies 1365 01:02:34.660 --> 01:02:37.640 to take those risks and say that some of the things will work, 1366 01:02:37.640 --> 01:02:39.880 some of them won't work, but be comfortable with that 1367 01:02:39.880 --> 01:02:42.160 and not have that fear factor built in. 1368 01:02:43.340 --> 01:02:44.380 Thank you. Richard? 1369 01:02:44.880 --> 01:02:49.440 Look, I think it is hard to remain optimistic, 1370 01:02:49.580 --> 01:02:52.820 so I work more on seething white-hot rage. 1371 01:02:56.720 --> 01:02:59.900 He took his antidepressants before the session. 1372 01:02:59.900 --> 01:03:02.460 But, you know, you don't have to lose your sense of humour 1373 01:03:02.460 --> 01:03:04.080 while you have that kind of anger. 1374 01:03:05.540 --> 01:03:08.420 But, look, that's not something I suggest everyone need. 1375 01:03:08.560 --> 01:03:11.200 But the last thing we need is for people to be hopeless. 1376 01:03:12.220 --> 01:03:14.580 The last thing that we need is for people to give up. 1377 01:03:14.620 --> 01:03:16.040 That's what our opponents want. 1378 01:03:17.500 --> 01:03:20.620 And the reason I say guilt won't save the planet 1379 01:03:20.620 --> 01:03:22.560 is because guilt is unsustainable. 1380 01:03:22.880 --> 01:03:25.700 You can't ask people to feel guilty their whole lives. 1381 01:03:25.760 --> 01:03:26.980 They won't. They'll give up. 1382 01:03:27.140 --> 01:03:29.100 And that's what people want you to do. 1383 01:03:29.800 --> 01:03:31.440 So I don't feel guilty. 1384 01:03:31.540 --> 01:03:35.400 I feel angry and, you know, at times optimistic 1385 01:03:35.400 --> 01:03:36.880 and at times pessimistic. 1386 01:03:36.900 --> 01:03:40.480 So I think that people should turn their lights off 1387 01:03:40.480 --> 01:03:41.620 when they don't need to, 1388 01:03:41.720 --> 01:03:44.400 but they should get angry at people who won't. 1389 01:03:44.640 --> 01:03:49.560 They should buy a small car if they don't need a big car, 1390 01:03:49.680 --> 01:03:51.800 and they should get angry at politicians 1391 01:03:51.800 --> 01:03:54.940 that won't introduce simple fuel-efficiency standards. 1392 01:03:55.140 --> 01:03:57.540 I think if we're going to solve this problem, 1393 01:03:57.620 --> 01:03:59.080 we need to fight it all out. 1394 01:03:59.100 --> 01:03:59.720 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1395 01:03:59.920 --> 01:04:00.400 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1396 01:04:00.780 --> 01:04:02.620 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1397 01:04:02.620 --> 01:04:02.840 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1398 01:04:02.840 --> 01:04:04.280 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1399 01:04:04.280 --> 01:04:05.260 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1400 01:04:05.260 --> 01:04:07.200 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1401 01:04:07.240 --> 01:04:08.560 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1402 01:04:08.560 --> 01:04:09.960 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1403 01:04:09.960 --> 01:04:10.320 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1404 01:04:10.340 --> 01:04:11.100 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1405 01:04:11.100 --> 01:04:11.440 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1406 01:04:11.440 --> 01:04:11.540 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1407 01:04:11.540 --> 01:04:12.780 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1408 01:04:13.840 --> 01:04:15.680 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1409 01:04:15.680 --> 01:04:16.240 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1410 01:04:17.100 --> 01:04:19.420 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1411 01:04:19.680 --> 01:04:24.640 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1412 01:04:25.200 --> 01:04:28.420 Pressure will come from all fronts. 1413 01:04:28.420 --> 01:04:31.240 So if you're not willing to change your vote, 1414 01:04:31.960 --> 01:04:35.140 I guarantee you the politicians won't be willing to change their mind. 1415 01:04:36.180 --> 01:04:38.940 I think there's an underlying message there for all of us, 1416 01:04:38.960 --> 01:04:41.720 and that is take very good care 1417 01:04:41.720 --> 01:04:45.400 with who you elect as your political representatives. 1418 01:04:47.440 --> 01:04:50.280 Start electing the people that are going to stand up 1419 01:04:50.280 --> 01:04:51.860 and be counted rather than the party. 1420 01:04:52.340 --> 01:04:54.740 OK, next question from downstairs, please. 1421 01:04:55.140 --> 01:04:55.880 Thank you. 1422 01:04:56.440 --> 01:04:57.740 I'd like to address... 1423 01:04:57.740 --> 01:04:58.480 This is Barry Harrop. 1424 01:04:58.540 --> 01:05:00.680 I'd like to address my question to the panel 1425 01:05:01.660 --> 01:05:04.540 and for the benefit of interstate guests here. 1426 01:05:04.700 --> 01:05:08.260 In South Australia, we're kind of like the canary in the coal mine 1427 01:05:08.260 --> 01:05:09.400 in terms of climate change. 1428 01:05:10.500 --> 01:05:12.260 It's happening, and we're right in it, 1429 01:05:13.140 --> 01:05:17.140 and one only has to look at the whole Darling Basin issue there. 1430 01:05:17.800 --> 01:05:21.720 But the question is whether or not the panel have actually looked 1431 01:05:21.720 --> 01:05:25.860 at the 30-year plan that's been released in South Australia 1432 01:05:25.880 --> 01:05:29.120 on water, and coincidentally, the same week, 1433 01:05:29.140 --> 01:05:31.740 the 30-year plan on increasing the population 1434 01:05:31.740 --> 01:05:33.080 by half a million people, 1435 01:05:33.820 --> 01:05:36.700 when we haven't worked out when we're going to get the water from now 1436 01:05:36.700 --> 01:05:38.340 to sustain the existing communities. 1437 01:05:38.960 --> 01:05:40.880 Excellent question, and I'll go to... 1438 01:05:42.120 --> 01:05:42.600 APPLAUSE 1439 01:05:45.020 --> 01:05:45.980 Suzanne first. 1440 01:05:46.900 --> 01:05:47.780 Well, interesting. 1441 01:05:47.920 --> 01:05:51.360 I was at the launch of the 30-year plan, Water for Good, 1442 01:05:51.960 --> 01:05:53.640 and I have read the plan. 1443 01:05:53.860 --> 01:05:55.020 I think that... 1444 01:05:55.020 --> 01:05:55.860 And, of course, then there was... 1445 01:05:55.880 --> 01:05:57.540 The plan for Greater Adelaide, as you say. 1446 01:05:57.980 --> 01:06:00.400 The two don't seem to quite talk to each other, 1447 01:06:00.480 --> 01:06:03.280 and that was certainly my view when I looked at the two. 1448 01:06:03.440 --> 01:06:05.940 I don't have any idea what the solution is. 1449 01:06:06.100 --> 01:06:08.800 I do think that the growth rates, 1450 01:06:08.900 --> 01:06:10.860 which we're told for the whole of Australia, 1451 01:06:10.940 --> 01:06:12.240 are good for the economy. 1452 01:06:12.700 --> 01:06:16.060 I do think that we need to look seriously at those issues. 1453 01:06:16.760 --> 01:06:17.860 One of the... 1454 01:06:17.860 --> 01:06:19.180 You know, it's almost a taboo subject 1455 01:06:19.180 --> 01:06:21.960 to talk about population growth in the planet as a whole, 1456 01:06:22.060 --> 01:06:24.520 and certainly population growth in any particular country. 1457 01:06:25.200 --> 01:06:27.660 It's something that you don't hear politicians talking about, 1458 01:06:27.700 --> 01:06:29.520 particularly when you start talking about limiting it. 1459 01:06:29.660 --> 01:06:33.380 There's a whole range of political ramifications that that has, 1460 01:06:33.440 --> 01:06:35.740 but I do think it's an incredibly important topic 1461 01:06:35.740 --> 01:06:38.640 that we do need to not be frightened to discuss. 1462 01:06:39.020 --> 01:06:40.880 I don't know what the solution to that is, 1463 01:06:40.940 --> 01:06:42.440 but clearly there is a major problem. 1464 01:06:43.120 --> 01:06:44.980 The Water for Good policy claims 1465 01:06:44.980 --> 01:06:48.540 that it has solved our water problems for good. 1466 01:06:49.020 --> 01:06:52.160 I couldn't see from the plan how that could be achieved. 1467 01:06:54.220 --> 01:06:54.720 Richard? 1468 01:06:55.000 --> 01:06:58.400 Look, the population question, you know, you're right, 1469 01:06:58.480 --> 01:07:00.540 it's a vexed issue, but there's no... 1470 01:07:00.540 --> 01:07:02.500 I have a very straightforward approach. 1471 01:07:02.680 --> 01:07:05.660 I don't resile in any way from one simple truth, 1472 01:07:05.860 --> 01:07:08.360 that the more people there are using a resource, 1473 01:07:08.540 --> 01:07:11.280 the less resource we get each, on average. 1474 01:07:12.600 --> 01:07:16.080 And, you know, Brendan made the point about averages before. 1475 01:07:16.200 --> 01:07:18.920 Well, you know, the average number of Australian 1476 01:07:18.920 --> 01:07:20.520 has less than two leagues. 1477 01:07:21.160 --> 01:07:21.980 Not much. 1478 01:07:22.160 --> 01:07:22.720 Less than two. 1479 01:07:23.460 --> 01:07:25.040 But just less than two. 1480 01:07:25.460 --> 01:07:27.700 Because the number of one-legged people 1481 01:07:27.700 --> 01:07:30.120 far exceeds the number of three-legged people. 1482 01:07:30.220 --> 01:07:30.740 Ergo... 1483 01:07:34.000 --> 01:07:35.720 ..the average Australian. 1484 01:07:36.220 --> 01:07:39.660 But we do not design pants for the average person. 1485 01:07:39.860 --> 01:07:42.120 We design pants for humans. 1486 01:07:42.620 --> 01:07:43.520 Two leagues. 1487 01:07:44.560 --> 01:07:48.900 So, on average, the more people that come into a region, 1488 01:07:49.040 --> 01:07:50.960 the less water there is per person. 1489 01:07:50.960 --> 01:07:55.300 What we're doing is concealing those simple truths from ourselves. 1490 01:07:55.380 --> 01:07:58.740 I don't think there's a right number for Australia's population. 1491 01:07:59.320 --> 01:08:00.980 But, again, it's up to you. 1492 01:08:01.040 --> 01:08:01.980 Don't blame politicians. 1493 01:08:02.240 --> 01:08:04.840 It's up to you to say to any politician 1494 01:08:04.840 --> 01:08:06.660 that wants to increase population, 1495 01:08:08.080 --> 01:08:11.480 well, who's going to miss out on the scarce resources? 1496 01:08:11.980 --> 01:08:13.680 We could use far less water each. 1497 01:08:13.780 --> 01:08:15.320 We can use far less land each. 1498 01:08:15.440 --> 01:08:18.640 There's no doubt that Adelaide can have a bigger population. 1499 01:08:18.960 --> 01:08:20.740 But it can't have a bigger population. 1500 01:08:20.740 --> 01:08:22.960 And exactly the same lifestyle. 1501 01:08:23.760 --> 01:08:25.920 There are hard choices to be made. 1502 01:08:26.100 --> 01:08:28.780 And if those two reports don't talk to each other, 1503 01:08:28.860 --> 01:08:31.560 that's because someone's hiding from a hard choice. 1504 01:08:31.940 --> 01:08:34.500 And it's up to you whether you want to call them out on it. 1505 01:08:35.200 --> 01:08:35.700 Brendan. 1506 01:08:35.980 --> 01:08:36.500 Yeah. 1507 01:08:36.780 --> 01:08:39.260 And I spoke about this yesterday. 1508 01:08:39.940 --> 01:08:45.440 Our environmental impact is a product of population, 1509 01:08:45.580 --> 01:08:46.880 how many of us there are, 1510 01:08:47.520 --> 01:08:50.040 our affluence, our lifestyles, 1511 01:08:50.740 --> 01:08:51.740 how much we consume, 1512 01:08:51.860 --> 01:08:56.080 and the technology we use to do all of that, 1513 01:08:56.140 --> 01:08:57.580 to produce and consume and live. 1514 01:08:57.860 --> 01:09:00.160 And that's called PAT. 1515 01:09:00.440 --> 01:09:04.200 It's a Paul Ehrlich's formula from the early 1970s. 1516 01:09:04.200 --> 01:09:08.640 Impact equals population times affluence times technology. 1517 01:09:09.200 --> 01:09:12.100 You can come up with the same impact 1518 01:09:12.100 --> 01:09:15.720 with different combinations of population, affluence and technology. 1519 01:09:16.740 --> 01:09:19.120 But what that also means is you can't ignore anyone. 1520 01:09:19.400 --> 01:09:20.720 So you have to consider... 1521 01:09:21.340 --> 01:09:21.820 population. 1522 01:09:23.180 --> 01:09:25.600 It's part of the total impact. 1523 01:09:26.420 --> 01:09:29.200 The real challenge is when you go to look at reducing your impact, 1524 01:09:29.400 --> 01:09:32.080 there are all sorts of choices to be made about population, 1525 01:09:32.400 --> 01:09:33.500 the size of your population, 1526 01:09:34.060 --> 01:09:35.020 its affluence, 1527 01:09:35.580 --> 01:09:37.400 and the technologies you use. 1528 01:09:37.480 --> 01:09:38.320 And there are winners and losers. 1529 01:09:39.620 --> 01:09:41.740 So that's why I talk about how we configure ourselves, 1530 01:09:41.980 --> 01:09:45.360 how do we configure our societies to reduce our impact. 1531 01:09:45.620 --> 01:09:47.700 Of course, there are these choices with all sorts of... 1532 01:09:48.480 --> 01:09:50.560 political and economic and social, 1533 01:09:50.600 --> 01:09:50.720 and economic and social, 1534 01:09:50.740 --> 01:09:52.200 and ethical considerations. 1535 01:09:52.340 --> 01:09:56.420 But without doubt, population is an important part of the formula. 1536 01:09:57.360 --> 01:09:58.180 Thank you. 1537 01:09:58.280 --> 01:09:59.760 Question from upstairs, please. 1538 01:10:00.160 --> 01:10:00.940 Yes, thank you. 1539 01:10:01.060 --> 01:10:03.320 I was shocked to learn last week 1540 01:10:03.320 --> 01:10:07.520 that apparently Australia has only one marine research boat 1541 01:10:07.520 --> 01:10:12.440 which has got the task of measuring the temperatures in the deep oceans. 1542 01:10:12.760 --> 01:10:17.920 And the temperatures they're finding are rising far faster than they ever thought. 1543 01:10:18.200 --> 01:10:20.440 Now, how does this compare, for me, 1544 01:10:20.440 --> 01:10:21.160 as a taxpayer, 1545 01:10:21.460 --> 01:10:25.760 where the government is now happy to buy six submarines, 1546 01:10:26.060 --> 01:10:27.140 three warships, 1547 01:10:27.220 --> 01:10:29.620 and all in the name of national security? 1548 01:10:30.220 --> 01:10:32.300 So I would like to ask the panel, 1549 01:10:32.500 --> 01:10:36.440 do you think it's time we change the whole focus on national security 1550 01:10:36.440 --> 01:10:38.700 and the money we're giving to it 1551 01:10:38.700 --> 01:10:42.080 and include climate security, food security, 1552 01:10:42.340 --> 01:10:45.160 a sustainable security for the future? 1553 01:10:45.340 --> 01:10:49.660 How can we define national security in a climate change context, please? 1554 01:10:49.880 --> 01:10:50.420 What a lovely question. 1555 01:10:50.420 --> 01:10:50.860 Lovely question. 1556 01:10:52.200 --> 01:10:53.360 I could answer that. 1557 01:10:55.860 --> 01:10:56.860 Go, Brendan. 1558 01:10:57.340 --> 01:11:00.280 Yeah, I mean, I agree absolutely 1559 01:11:00.280 --> 01:11:03.700 where we are dealing with the issue of national security 1560 01:11:03.700 --> 01:11:06.740 and really we're dealing with the issue of global security. 1561 01:11:07.240 --> 01:11:07.720 OK? 1562 01:11:07.800 --> 01:11:10.440 So, I mean, let's take this right up to the United Nations. 1563 01:11:10.480 --> 01:11:12.560 We have a UN Security Council, right, 1564 01:11:12.660 --> 01:11:17.560 for which global environmental security is not part of their mandate. 1565 01:11:17.820 --> 01:11:18.240 Right? 1566 01:11:18.320 --> 01:11:20.100 So the whole concept of security, 1567 01:11:20.420 --> 01:11:23.380 it has to be redefined at a national level, 1568 01:11:23.500 --> 01:11:24.860 or at all levels, 1569 01:11:25.020 --> 01:11:28.520 but certainly at a national level and at a global level. 1570 01:11:28.780 --> 01:11:32.400 And, you know, if we don't have global environmental security, 1571 01:11:32.660 --> 01:11:33.720 then we don't have any security. 1572 01:11:34.060 --> 01:11:37.980 You know, our quest for certainty will fail for sure. 1573 01:11:38.240 --> 01:11:45.180 So, you know, it's certainly time that we redefine the concept of security 1574 01:11:45.180 --> 01:11:49.760 and hence the kind of policies and measures we need for security 1575 01:11:49.760 --> 01:11:50.400 and for the future. 1576 01:11:50.420 --> 01:11:52.100 And, you know, the funding that flows. 1577 01:11:52.200 --> 01:11:55.180 And if we can get even a small percentage of the money 1578 01:11:55.740 --> 01:12:00.900 that's really thrown, often thrown down the drain of defence budgets, 1579 01:12:00.940 --> 01:12:03.120 you know, into thinking about national 1580 01:12:03.120 --> 01:12:05.320 and global environmental security, you know, 1581 01:12:05.340 --> 01:12:06.420 we can make some real progress. 1582 01:12:07.140 --> 01:12:07.660 Richard. 1583 01:12:07.860 --> 01:12:08.680 Look, thanks. 1584 01:12:08.760 --> 01:12:09.800 It's a brilliant question. 1585 01:12:09.920 --> 01:12:15.760 And defence raises all sorts of both, using defence as a metaphor, 1586 01:12:15.840 --> 01:12:18.460 uses all sorts of introduced possibilities, 1587 01:12:18.680 --> 01:12:20.360 but also just rank apocalypse. 1588 01:12:20.400 --> 01:12:25.220 I mean, look at the invasion and the war of Iraq. 1589 01:12:25.920 --> 01:12:29.600 There was a risk, a chance, some possibility. 1590 01:12:29.680 --> 01:12:31.520 They had weapons of mass destruction. 1591 01:12:32.280 --> 01:12:36.960 So we made a decisive decision, a decision which I disagreed with, 1592 01:12:37.140 --> 01:12:40.220 but it shows that as a country we are actually capable 1593 01:12:40.220 --> 01:12:43.120 of not just spending enormous amounts of money, 1594 01:12:43.160 --> 01:12:46.760 but literally risking people's lives because of a possibility 1595 01:12:46.760 --> 01:12:48.040 of an adverse event. 1596 01:12:48.340 --> 01:12:50.200 If we took that same approach, 1597 01:12:50.400 --> 01:12:51.100 if we took that same approach to climate change, 1598 01:12:51.280 --> 01:12:54.280 then all this nonsense that we have to put up with 1599 01:12:54.280 --> 01:12:57.780 about why we can't act until it's certain would evaporate. 1600 01:12:58.000 --> 01:13:01.800 Similarly, the defence department recently said in exchange 1601 01:13:01.800 --> 01:13:07.560 for $60 billion worth of new toys, 1602 01:13:08.400 --> 01:13:12.000 they would find $20 billion worth of savings. 1603 01:13:13.080 --> 01:13:15.340 How can a public sector agency admit 1604 01:13:15.340 --> 01:13:17.940 to having $20 billion worth of waste? 1605 01:13:19.400 --> 01:13:20.380 With a strategy that's not just about the economy, 1606 01:13:20.380 --> 01:13:21.280 but about the people who are in the industry? 1607 01:13:21.280 --> 01:13:25.420 If we spent what they admit to wasting in defence 1608 01:13:25.420 --> 01:13:28.240 on tackling climate change, I'm not making this up, 1609 01:13:28.300 --> 01:13:32.800 if we spent $20 billion on installing wind and solar 1610 01:13:32.800 --> 01:13:37.080 and public transport, tomorrow it's not rocket science, 1611 01:13:37.220 --> 01:13:39.420 literally, defence is rocket science. 1612 01:13:39.600 --> 01:13:40.940 This is old-fashioned stuff. 1613 01:13:42.140 --> 01:13:42.480 All right? 1614 01:13:43.320 --> 01:13:50.240 So, yeah, it's, there is no better way to highlight both the inconsistency 1615 01:13:50.240 --> 01:13:53.000 in our decision-making framework in terms of risk 1616 01:13:53.000 --> 01:13:56.440 and our outrageous misprioritisation of resources 1617 01:13:57.180 --> 01:14:01.460 than to compare our investment in protecting ourselves 1618 01:14:01.460 --> 01:14:04.440 from the minute risk of invasion from Indonesia 1619 01:14:05.400 --> 01:14:09.840 versus our complete lack of investment in protecting ourselves 1620 01:14:09.840 --> 01:14:11.640 from very likely climate change. 1621 01:14:15.560 --> 01:14:16.400 Suzanne. 1622 01:14:19.380 --> 01:14:20.220 I'm not sure I can speak for all of you, 1623 01:14:20.220 --> 01:14:22.120 but I agree with everything that's been said. 1624 01:14:22.260 --> 01:14:24.600 I would also like to say, however, that, of course, 1625 01:14:24.680 --> 01:14:27.280 defence is born out of aggression, essentially, 1626 01:14:27.480 --> 01:14:30.280 whereas I think climate change is, 1627 01:14:30.420 --> 01:14:32.100 and particularly the science of climate change, 1628 01:14:32.340 --> 01:14:34.460 has to take place in the spirit of collaboration. 1629 01:14:35.080 --> 01:14:38.520 So the two, in a certain sense, are mutually exclusive. 1630 01:14:38.960 --> 01:14:42.120 Having said that, I think there is a lot of gains to be made 1631 01:14:42.120 --> 01:14:46.140 by looking at the way the defence research funding works 1632 01:14:46.140 --> 01:14:48.460 and applying that more broadly 1633 01:14:48.460 --> 01:14:50.200 across the board. 1634 01:14:51.440 --> 01:14:54.740 To a certain extent, one can come to the Defence, 1635 01:14:54.860 --> 01:14:57.460 of the Defence Industries, 1636 01:14:58.200 --> 01:15:00.500 because they do fund an enormous amount of Blue Skies research. 1637 01:15:01.920 --> 01:15:06.000 And sometimes, that's for altruistic reasons 1638 01:15:06.660 --> 01:15:08.820 from the viewpoint of the Defence industry, 1639 01:15:09.000 --> 01:15:10.620 because they can see a Defence outcome. 1640 01:15:11.100 --> 01:15:13.940 But very often, I have to say, I don't think that's the case. 1641 01:15:13.980 --> 01:15:17.880 I do think that they fund, not necessarily in Australia, 1642 01:15:17.960 --> 01:15:19.140 but certainly in other countries, 1643 01:15:19.200 --> 01:15:20.200 they do fund Blue Skies. 1644 01:15:20.200 --> 01:15:25.700 research because there might be some kind of greater good outcome. But I do think that there 1645 01:15:25.700 --> 01:15:32.440 is a fundamental disjuncture between our funding of defence and our funding of, in fact, all other 1646 01:15:32.440 --> 01:15:38.380 sciences, with perhaps the exception of health. Thank you, Suzanne. Just looking at the time, 1647 01:15:38.600 --> 01:15:44.920 we'll be able to take the four questions that are standing downstairs. If anybody wants to 1648 01:15:44.920 --> 01:15:49.440 add themselves, like one other person upstairs, we'll be able to take that, but then I'm probably 1649 01:15:49.440 --> 01:15:55.540 going to have to cut it off at that point. I think it's time for a downstairs question, please. 1650 01:15:56.000 --> 01:16:02.000 Thank you. I'm surprised no one's talked about methane in this talk about beyond the city limits. 1651 01:16:03.080 --> 01:16:10.580 My understanding is that methane is a much more strongly acting greenhouse gas, but the levels 1652 01:16:10.580 --> 01:16:16.080 fall much faster than CO2. Therefore, there are big gains to be made. The unfortunate, 1653 01:16:16.300 --> 01:16:19.420 uncomfortable truth is that methane equates... 1654 01:16:19.440 --> 01:16:23.540 It equates to hamburgers and beefsteak. Could the panel please comment? 1655 01:16:24.580 --> 01:16:25.440 Richard, go. 1656 01:16:25.800 --> 01:16:27.920 Oh, Brendan first. 1657 01:16:28.440 --> 01:16:34.540 In terms of what's called the global warming potential of greenhouse gases, a given unit 1658 01:16:34.540 --> 01:16:41.280 of methane is more powerful than a given the same amount of CO2. But there's vastly more... 1659 01:16:42.540 --> 01:16:48.760 Of the greenhouse gases we're putting up, the dominant one is carbon dioxide. Actually, 1660 01:16:49.440 --> 01:17:00.140 the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapour. And we measure carbon dioxide 1661 01:17:00.140 --> 01:17:06.500 and methane parts per million. Parts per million. They're called trace gases for that reason. 1662 01:17:06.880 --> 01:17:15.140 So, methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but we're only causing relatively small amounts 1663 01:17:15.140 --> 01:17:17.320 of it to be emitted. 1664 01:17:17.540 --> 01:17:18.300 So... 1665 01:17:18.300 --> 01:17:22.620 So the main game really is on controlling emissions of carbon dioxide 1666 01:17:22.620 --> 01:17:25.000 from burning fossil fuel, in my opinion. 1667 01:17:25.260 --> 01:17:27.020 So you're essentially saying get it in perspective? 1668 01:17:27.500 --> 01:17:29.780 Yeah, it can't be ignored. 1669 01:17:30.520 --> 01:17:34.180 It's part of the menu of mitigation responses 1670 01:17:34.180 --> 01:17:35.660 that we have to deal with, 1671 01:17:35.800 --> 01:17:41.200 but let's not lose sight of where the majority of our effort needs to lie. 1672 01:17:41.800 --> 01:17:42.280 Richard? 1673 01:17:42.300 --> 01:17:46.080 I agree with that, but I think methane, 1674 01:17:46.080 --> 01:17:49.420 because of its stronger global warming potential 1675 01:17:49.420 --> 01:17:53.480 and because it doesn't last as long in the atmosphere, 1676 01:17:53.560 --> 01:17:56.640 there are some cheap, quick savings to be made. 1677 01:17:56.720 --> 01:17:58.800 So if you are worried about peaking by 2020, 1678 01:17:59.020 --> 01:18:02.940 I think methane deserves a bit more attention. 1679 01:18:03.420 --> 01:18:07.600 But I guess the main thing that I would say about methane 1680 01:18:07.600 --> 01:18:14.180 is that we, as a society, now take for granted 1681 01:18:14.180 --> 01:18:15.900 that there's public debate 1682 01:18:15.900 --> 01:18:16.060 that we're going to have to take for granted 1683 01:18:16.060 --> 01:18:19.160 and commentary around the right kind of car to buy 1684 01:18:19.160 --> 01:18:21.120 or a better kind of car to buy 1685 01:18:21.120 --> 01:18:22.960 and a better kind of appliance to buy, 1686 01:18:23.100 --> 01:18:26.180 and we don't yet have that conversation about food. 1687 01:18:27.140 --> 01:18:32.060 So I'm certainly not an advocate for widespread vegetarianism. 1688 01:18:32.720 --> 01:18:35.540 I don't eat meat myself, but I don't call myself a vegetarian. 1689 01:18:37.220 --> 01:18:42.040 I think that if we want to export a very meat-intensive diet 1690 01:18:42.040 --> 01:18:44.080 to the rest of the world, speaking of menus, 1691 01:18:44.640 --> 01:18:45.900 you know, most countries, 1692 01:18:46.060 --> 01:18:48.980 don't eat nearly as much meat per capita as we do. 1693 01:18:49.240 --> 01:18:50.820 And they're catching up. 1694 01:18:51.060 --> 01:18:56.420 So I think that methane does have an important role to play, 1695 01:18:56.540 --> 01:18:59.780 not just at a policy level, but a behavioural level. 1696 01:18:59.840 --> 01:19:03.500 I think the next logical step for consumers 1697 01:19:03.500 --> 01:19:07.460 who are worrying about their emissions from their own activities 1698 01:19:07.460 --> 01:19:09.000 is to begin to look at food. 1699 01:19:09.220 --> 01:19:12.000 And when we say to people, 1700 01:19:12.100 --> 01:19:13.740 try not to drive your car as much, 1701 01:19:13.880 --> 01:19:15.760 we don't say never drive your car again. 1702 01:19:16.060 --> 01:19:17.580 I don't think we need to say to people, 1703 01:19:17.680 --> 01:19:18.740 never eat meat again, 1704 01:19:18.860 --> 01:19:20.840 but understand there are more and less 1705 01:19:21.980 --> 01:19:23.640 greenhouse-intensive ways of eating. 1706 01:19:25.020 --> 01:19:25.440 Suzanne. 1707 01:19:26.780 --> 01:19:29.440 Well, I think somebody was talking about, you know, 1708 01:19:29.460 --> 01:19:30.440 feeling guilty earlier. 1709 01:19:30.520 --> 01:19:33.720 I think, you know, vegetarians, you know, 1710 01:19:33.720 --> 01:19:36.020 maybe that's the positive thing. 1711 01:19:36.080 --> 01:19:37.180 You can feel incredibly smug. 1712 01:19:38.220 --> 01:19:40.180 You know, I don't eat meat. 1713 01:19:40.220 --> 01:19:42.840 It's a choice that I make, but my daughter does eat meat. 1714 01:19:42.960 --> 01:19:45.420 And so I think that it is about balance, 1715 01:19:46.060 --> 01:19:47.060 it is about making choices. 1716 01:19:47.280 --> 01:19:48.640 And I think you're absolutely right, Richard, 1717 01:19:48.720 --> 01:19:51.160 that we need to consider what we do as individuals. 1718 01:19:51.560 --> 01:19:53.240 And we can make those choices. 1719 01:19:53.320 --> 01:19:55.620 We can choose to eat less meat. 1720 01:19:55.980 --> 01:19:59.080 And that will have an impact on methane. 1721 01:19:59.760 --> 01:20:02.320 I think the thing we've got to get an understanding of, 1722 01:20:02.380 --> 01:20:03.820 because CO2 is, you know, 1723 01:20:03.820 --> 01:20:05.300 it's about the carbon pollution reduction scheme. 1724 01:20:05.360 --> 01:20:07.940 It's about CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 1725 01:20:08.180 --> 01:20:11.980 And as you said, it's actually a much more holistic mechanism 1726 01:20:11.980 --> 01:20:12.920 that is working. 1727 01:20:13.160 --> 01:20:14.600 And we don't actually necessarily understand 1728 01:20:14.600 --> 01:20:16.040 how all those different... 1729 01:20:16.920 --> 01:20:19.160 ...components of the atmosphere do work. 1730 01:20:19.360 --> 01:20:22.140 I mean, water vapour in the atmosphere is a greenhouse gas, 1731 01:20:22.300 --> 01:20:24.420 but it can also act as a... 1732 01:20:24.420 --> 01:20:26.140 It can also increase the albedo effect 1733 01:20:26.140 --> 01:20:28.500 of reflecting energy from the sun 1734 01:20:28.500 --> 01:20:30.080 because of additional cloud cover. 1735 01:20:30.440 --> 01:20:33.340 So it's an incredibly complex physical sort of system 1736 01:20:33.340 --> 01:20:34.160 that we're dealing with. 1737 01:20:34.300 --> 01:20:37.500 But I do think you have to take account of each of those areas 1738 01:20:37.500 --> 01:20:41.400 and not get completely 100% focused on CO2. 1739 01:20:42.440 --> 01:20:45.700 I think our research and development sector is key, 1740 01:20:46.060 --> 01:20:48.080 in the issues around methane, 1741 01:20:48.460 --> 01:20:51.400 research and development into what we feed our animals 1742 01:20:51.400 --> 01:20:53.540 and maybe some changes there in addressing that. 1743 01:20:53.600 --> 01:20:55.060 I would certainly like to see governments, 1744 01:20:55.240 --> 01:20:57.960 instead of cutting funds to research and development, 1745 01:20:58.640 --> 01:21:01.420 putting more money towards research and development. 1746 01:21:01.760 --> 01:21:04.320 Now, I think it's time for a question upstairs, please. 1747 01:21:05.140 --> 01:21:07.700 OK, this question is addressed to the panel. 1748 01:21:08.460 --> 01:21:09.860 Over the last few years, 1749 01:21:09.860 --> 01:21:14.760 we've seen far more frequent and very much more intense bushfires. 1750 01:21:16.060 --> 01:21:18.360 And it looks like developing into a... 1751 01:21:18.920 --> 01:21:21.700 ..much more of a sustainable pattern in that direction. 1752 01:21:23.780 --> 01:21:24.780 I wonder... 1753 01:21:24.780 --> 01:21:28.000 And this looks like developing into a very, very dangerous 1754 01:21:28.000 --> 01:21:29.780 negative feedback mechanism. 1755 01:21:30.480 --> 01:21:33.860 It must be pouring millions of tonnes of carbon 1756 01:21:33.860 --> 01:21:35.700 into the atmosphere every year. 1757 01:21:36.860 --> 01:21:39.960 To what extent are bushfires being factored in 1758 01:21:39.960 --> 01:21:43.400 to the kind of models that people are working on at the moment? 1759 01:21:44.960 --> 01:21:45.480 Yeah. 1760 01:21:46.060 --> 01:21:47.200 Yes, this whole issue of fires, 1761 01:21:48.040 --> 01:21:51.460 very important and kind of tricky in many ways. 1762 01:21:51.980 --> 01:21:54.100 First of all, there's been a massive increase... 1763 01:21:54.100 --> 01:21:57.960 Well, the main cause of the massive increase of fires in Australia 1764 01:21:57.960 --> 01:22:00.980 over the last 30 years is due to human activity, OK? 1765 01:22:01.480 --> 01:22:02.800 Because the sources of ignition. 1766 01:22:02.840 --> 01:22:06.660 Massive increase in the number of sources of... 1767 01:22:08.400 --> 01:22:12.060 ..of ignition, sorry, ignition sources from human activity. 1768 01:22:12.320 --> 01:22:14.300 That's the main reason why we've had more fires. 1769 01:22:14.760 --> 01:22:15.840 South-east Australia, 1770 01:22:16.060 --> 01:22:17.280 and Victoria in particular, 1771 01:22:18.060 --> 01:22:21.960 you know, the megafires, if I can call them that, 1772 01:22:22.060 --> 01:22:23.240 that we've had in our forests, 1773 01:22:23.940 --> 01:22:27.220 are driven by extreme weather conditions. 1774 01:22:27.880 --> 01:22:29.260 Extreme fire weather. 1775 01:22:29.360 --> 01:22:33.600 Once you get a prolonged dry period, 1776 01:22:33.920 --> 01:22:37.500 half a dozen days of 45-degree-plus temperatures, 1777 01:22:38.700 --> 01:22:40.820 100-kilometre-an-hour winds, OK, 1778 01:22:41.500 --> 01:22:44.380 and then you've got ignition, nothing else matters. 1779 01:22:44.580 --> 01:22:45.440 It's driven... 1780 01:22:45.440 --> 01:22:48.360 These things are driven by extreme fire weather. 1781 01:22:49.920 --> 01:22:53.080 It looks like, kind of, again, this is a statistic, 1782 01:22:53.800 --> 01:22:59.000 we've had about three 1-200-year fire weather days 1783 01:22:59.000 --> 01:23:02.900 in the last decade, OK, in south-east Australia, 1784 01:23:03.140 --> 01:23:05.800 which coincide with the big three fire events we've had. 1785 01:23:05.980 --> 01:23:08.040 Now, is that... 1786 01:23:08.040 --> 01:23:11.500 ..is that, you know, climate change, right? 1787 01:23:11.560 --> 01:23:13.120 Does that signify we've shifted? 1788 01:23:14.400 --> 01:23:15.420 Because one of the... 1789 01:23:15.420 --> 01:23:18.720 You know, the predictions of climate change 1790 01:23:18.720 --> 01:23:19.900 is not just a change in mean, 1791 01:23:20.020 --> 01:23:22.520 but a change in the frequency of extreme events, 1792 01:23:22.740 --> 01:23:26.840 and we've now had three extreme fire events in the last 10 years. 1793 01:23:29.340 --> 01:23:30.740 Is that the result of climate change? 1794 01:23:30.800 --> 01:23:31.300 Well, we don't know. 1795 01:23:31.480 --> 01:23:32.940 We'll only know retrospectively 1796 01:23:32.940 --> 01:23:36.160 because climate is not a weather event, 1797 01:23:36.300 --> 01:23:38.640 it's the average weather over a period of time. 1798 01:23:38.820 --> 01:23:42.020 So in 10 years' time, I'll be able to tell you if we've moved. 1799 01:23:42.260 --> 01:23:44.580 But it seems very... 1800 01:23:44.580 --> 01:23:45.080 You know, it... 1801 01:23:45.080 --> 01:23:49.260 It's very strong evidence that that's the case. 1802 01:23:49.660 --> 01:23:55.900 So it is consistent with the CSIRA climate change model predictions 1803 01:23:55.900 --> 01:23:58.720 that there are parts of Australia 1804 01:23:58.720 --> 01:24:01.440 that have a long-term drying trend that's going to continue 1805 01:24:01.440 --> 01:24:04.360 and that we're going to have more extreme weather conditions, 1806 01:24:04.480 --> 01:24:06.260 which will, you know... 1807 01:24:06.800 --> 01:24:09.340 ..which is the main driver of these kind of megafires. 1808 01:24:09.640 --> 01:24:12.460 So that's the kind of science of it, as I understand it. 1809 01:24:12.560 --> 01:24:14.400 In terms of the impact on emissions, 1810 01:24:14.400 --> 01:24:15.440 it's interesting. 1811 01:24:15.640 --> 01:24:17.840 It will vary from landscape to landscape 1812 01:24:17.840 --> 01:24:20.260 and ecosystem type to ecosystem type. 1813 01:24:20.600 --> 01:24:23.600 Eucalypt forests are actually quite resilient to fire 1814 01:24:23.600 --> 01:24:26.880 because most of the carbon in a eucalypt forest 1815 01:24:26.880 --> 01:24:29.840 is in the woody stems and roots of big old trees, 1816 01:24:30.500 --> 01:24:32.020 and that's not combusted in a fire. 1817 01:24:32.120 --> 01:24:34.440 Fire's burned through, and it burns the litter 1818 01:24:34.440 --> 01:24:36.240 and the bushes and the leaves, 1819 01:24:36.400 --> 01:24:37.920 and most of the carbon is there, 1820 01:24:38.040 --> 01:24:39.820 and then, you know, the trees... 1821 01:24:39.820 --> 01:24:42.520 ..the plants regrow, the forest starts to grow again. 1822 01:24:42.880 --> 01:24:44.380 So a eucalypt forest is a very... 1823 01:24:44.380 --> 01:24:45.360 Eucalypt forests are remarkably... 1824 01:24:45.360 --> 01:24:48.080 ..in terms of carbon, are remarkably resistant. 1825 01:24:48.360 --> 01:24:50.420 Other ecosystems are much more fragile. 1826 01:24:51.020 --> 01:24:53.800 Alpine meadows are very fragile, you know, for example. 1827 01:24:54.200 --> 01:24:57.860 So, you know, I give lectures on this, 1828 01:24:57.920 --> 01:25:00.080 which is why I'm giving such a long answer, but... 1829 01:25:00.080 --> 01:25:01.000 Wouldn't have guessed that. 1830 01:25:02.000 --> 01:25:03.600 You know, in summary, 1831 01:25:03.760 --> 01:25:05.780 just to give the panel a chance to answer as well, 1832 01:25:06.700 --> 01:25:08.840 it looks like the... 1833 01:25:09.400 --> 01:25:11.300 ..it looks like we are entering... 1834 01:25:12.880 --> 01:25:14.360 ..a different climate... 1835 01:25:15.380 --> 01:25:16.520 ..climatic set of conditions 1836 01:25:16.520 --> 01:25:18.400 so that fire regimes are going to change 1837 01:25:18.400 --> 01:25:20.060 in different regions in Australia. 1838 01:25:20.260 --> 01:25:22.900 The impact will depend upon the ecosystem type 1839 01:25:22.900 --> 01:25:24.360 and what humans are doing on the land. 1840 01:25:26.100 --> 01:25:26.820 Thank you. 1841 01:25:26.960 --> 01:25:28.800 Do either of the other panel want to speak? 1842 01:25:29.200 --> 01:25:32.380 I'd just add that I find I'm not a scientist, 1843 01:25:33.240 --> 01:25:34.960 but people ask me about this all the time, 1844 01:25:35.040 --> 01:25:38.900 and the most useful concept that I've come across 1845 01:25:38.900 --> 01:25:42.100 in terms of this is the idea of climate-enhanced events. 1846 01:25:42.460 --> 01:25:43.960 You know, because people want to ask you, 1847 01:25:44.380 --> 01:25:46.320 is bushfire caused by climate change? 1848 01:25:46.740 --> 01:25:49.960 And, you know, well, the cause is someone lighting it, usually. 1849 01:25:52.340 --> 01:25:54.540 But, yeah, there's certainly no doubt 1850 01:25:54.540 --> 01:25:56.360 that there's good evidence that climate change 1851 01:25:56.360 --> 01:26:00.280 appears to be enhancing how bad these bushfires are. 1852 01:26:00.480 --> 01:26:03.580 So we need to separate the cause of the fire 1853 01:26:03.580 --> 01:26:05.900 from how bad the fire can be, 1854 01:26:06.040 --> 01:26:08.160 and there appears to be little doubt 1855 01:26:08.160 --> 01:26:12.080 that the more frequent these extreme weather events, 1856 01:26:12.320 --> 01:26:14.360 then the worse the bushfire... 1857 01:26:14.380 --> 01:26:15.020 will be. 1858 01:26:15.200 --> 01:26:16.760 But that's different, the cause. 1859 01:26:17.800 --> 01:26:19.700 I think, as well, just a final point, 1860 01:26:19.800 --> 01:26:22.020 that there are a lot of issues around land management 1861 01:26:22.020 --> 01:26:23.900 that we need to contemplate 1862 01:26:23.900 --> 01:26:26.240 when we're talking about bushfires in particular, 1863 01:26:26.400 --> 01:26:28.520 and I think that land management practices 1864 01:26:28.520 --> 01:26:32.260 may well have to adapt to adapting changes 1865 01:26:32.260 --> 01:26:36.740 and the adapting risk of fires, big fires happening. 1866 01:26:37.260 --> 01:26:38.240 OK, thank you. 1867 01:26:38.340 --> 01:26:39.980 I have two more questions. 1868 01:26:40.280 --> 01:26:42.020 We have three more minutes. 1869 01:26:42.120 --> 01:26:44.200 Obviously, I'm going to run a little bit over, 1870 01:26:44.200 --> 01:26:45.720 over time, but not very much. 1871 01:26:45.840 --> 01:26:48.440 The lady downstairs, please. 1872 01:26:49.520 --> 01:26:52.420 I'm troubled about international transport, 1873 01:26:53.360 --> 01:26:57.860 in particular, taking ore from Australia, 1874 01:26:58.140 --> 01:27:01.420 cutting it over to China to be smelted there, 1875 01:27:02.180 --> 01:27:05.960 and I would suggest that if we could have mining companies 1876 01:27:06.600 --> 01:27:08.240 putting in 10%... 1877 01:27:09.060 --> 01:27:11.180 smelting their own close to the site 1878 01:27:11.180 --> 01:27:14.180 and putting in 10% more greenhouse gas, 1879 01:27:14.200 --> 01:27:15.100 and they're doing it for green energy every year, 1880 01:27:15.680 --> 01:27:17.500 that this might help in that respect. 1881 01:27:17.800 --> 01:27:22.440 But there's a lot of international transport going on 1882 01:27:22.440 --> 01:27:25.320 that must be using an awful lot of carbon. 1883 01:27:26.700 --> 01:27:28.260 Would you like to comment? 1884 01:27:29.300 --> 01:27:31.660 I'll ask the panel to streamline their answers. 1885 01:27:31.840 --> 01:27:32.740 Richard, do you want to go first? 1886 01:27:32.920 --> 01:27:35.480 Sure. Look, it's much worse than that. 1887 01:27:35.560 --> 01:27:37.840 There's a company in Scotland, I think, 1888 01:27:37.860 --> 01:27:40.560 that catches fresh seafood, flies it to Asia, 1889 01:27:40.600 --> 01:27:43.820 has it peeled, flies it back, sells fresh, peeled local seafood. 1890 01:27:47.020 --> 01:27:48.420 There's no... True story. 1891 01:27:48.920 --> 01:27:53.200 There's no doubt that the way we've designed our structures 1892 01:27:53.200 --> 01:27:56.060 ignores, obviously, by definition, ignores greenhouse. 1893 01:27:56.380 --> 01:27:59.180 And once we get decent carbon pricing in, 1894 01:27:59.300 --> 01:28:01.880 and by decent, I mean high enough to change behaviour, 1895 01:28:02.460 --> 01:28:04.460 companies won't behave like that. 1896 01:28:04.840 --> 01:28:06.060 But it's not all bad. 1897 01:28:06.180 --> 01:28:08.500 People think we'll never be able to have an international holiday. 1898 01:28:08.860 --> 01:28:12.300 Well, you know, the three-day trip to Vanuatu is in real trouble, 1899 01:28:12.420 --> 01:28:14.000 but maybe if we go to Europe, 1900 01:28:14.000 --> 01:28:16.800 we'll actually spend six or eight weeks there once in our life, 1901 01:28:16.840 --> 01:28:18.160 have a great time and come home. 1902 01:28:18.400 --> 01:28:21.660 So, you know, things need to change a lot. 1903 01:28:21.760 --> 01:28:24.560 There'll still be transport, but we need to think about it differently. 1904 01:28:25.380 --> 01:28:25.780 Brendan? 1905 01:28:26.400 --> 01:28:29.980 Yeah, that... You know, it's a good observation you've made, 1906 01:28:30.040 --> 01:28:30.740 important observation. 1907 01:28:31.200 --> 01:28:34.040 If you look in Australia, the example I like to use is, 1908 01:28:34.120 --> 01:28:35.800 why do we make steel... 1909 01:28:36.480 --> 01:28:38.420 Well, why did we make steel in Newcastle? 1910 01:28:38.720 --> 01:28:39.120 Right? 1911 01:28:39.900 --> 01:28:42.680 Of course, the ore wasn't in Newcastle. Right? 1912 01:28:42.800 --> 01:28:43.680 Where's the ore now? 1913 01:28:44.000 --> 01:28:45.220 It's like up in the Kimberleys. 1914 01:28:45.500 --> 01:28:49.080 But the coal was in Newcastle, and that's where the energy was. 1915 01:28:49.600 --> 01:28:51.140 So you're absolutely right. 1916 01:28:51.280 --> 01:28:55.420 There's no reason we couldn't make the steel in the Kimberleys. 1917 01:28:57.080 --> 01:28:59.760 And that evokes a whole other set of issues, I know, 1918 01:28:59.860 --> 01:29:01.820 but just dealing with the carbon emissions. 1919 01:29:02.760 --> 01:29:05.860 Because it is possible to power these industrial processes 1920 01:29:05.860 --> 01:29:08.080 using alternative energy sources now. 1921 01:29:08.660 --> 01:29:12.860 So, you know, again, we can reconfigure even how we do something 1922 01:29:12.860 --> 01:29:18.240 as energy intensive as steel making in a way that dramatically cuts its carbon footprint. 1923 01:29:18.900 --> 01:29:20.040 Suzanne, just quickly. 1924 01:29:20.320 --> 01:29:24.060 I think globally we also need to consider about the materials that we use. 1925 01:29:24.120 --> 01:29:29.780 The assumption that iron is what needs to be used for major construction. 1926 01:29:30.240 --> 01:29:34.480 Therefore, that's why we export huge quantities to China, for example, 1927 01:29:34.480 --> 01:29:36.640 because they are using huge quantities, 1928 01:29:36.840 --> 01:29:40.920 and they don't have the capacity to deliver that currently in China itself. 1929 01:29:41.220 --> 01:29:42.840 I don't think that we're looking at that. 1930 01:29:42.840 --> 01:29:44.740 I think we're looking at it as an economic question, 1931 01:29:44.840 --> 01:29:47.060 and it does come down to the fact that it will cost more 1932 01:29:47.060 --> 01:29:50.460 to do as the person posing the question suggested 1933 01:29:50.460 --> 01:29:52.660 and not have this international travel. 1934 01:29:53.020 --> 01:29:54.980 And it will come down to a tax. 1935 01:29:55.040 --> 01:29:57.200 It will come down to a carbon tax on those companies. 1936 01:29:58.060 --> 01:29:58.760 Thank you. 1937 01:29:58.880 --> 01:30:00.240 And our lucky last question. 1938 01:30:01.560 --> 01:30:04.880 Well, thanks to the previous questioner, 1939 01:30:04.880 --> 01:30:09.500 because you've already touched on, in part, 1940 01:30:09.500 --> 01:30:15.620 an answer to my question, which is, in broad brush, 1941 01:30:15.700 --> 01:30:20.340 how do we get environmentally sustainable export policies? 1942 01:30:21.300 --> 01:30:26.460 And I also want to say thanks to the panel and the chair, 1943 01:30:26.620 --> 01:30:30.980 because I feel a lot more comfortable now than I did when I arrived 1944 01:30:30.980 --> 01:30:34.100 about the whole issue of climate change, just to see. 1945 01:30:34.220 --> 01:30:38.920 I mean, I'm familiar with a whole lot of people working in this area, 1946 01:30:38.920 --> 01:30:40.980 but it's just fantastic to have had this discussion. 1947 01:30:40.980 --> 01:30:42.900 We were paid by the mining company. 1948 01:30:44.700 --> 01:30:45.320 So... 1949 01:30:45.320 --> 01:30:46.040 Where's my cheque? 1950 01:30:46.440 --> 01:30:47.840 Now, I haven't... 1951 01:30:47.840 --> 01:30:48.540 You've got a cheque? 1952 01:30:48.600 --> 01:30:49.900 OK, the question. 1953 01:30:50.200 --> 01:30:54.060 No, no, I've just got to qualify the question as follows. 1954 01:30:54.640 --> 01:30:59.660 I'm interested, and perhaps it's also to our honourable chair from SAF, 1955 01:30:59.820 --> 01:31:08.620 to hear how you may see organic growing, holistic organic principles, 1956 01:31:08.920 --> 01:31:14.440 as a paradigm for changing agricultural practices, 1957 01:31:14.520 --> 01:31:17.480 hopefully in a non-divisive way, 1958 01:31:17.620 --> 01:31:21.680 as a paradigm for changing agricultural practices, 1959 01:31:21.800 --> 01:31:29.660 and also in helping develop this environmentally sustainable export policy 1960 01:31:29.660 --> 01:31:35.420 that it seems to me would be a good thing to go for as growers. 1961 01:31:35.500 --> 01:31:37.300 I speak as a former farmer 1962 01:31:37.300 --> 01:31:38.900 who farmed both conventional and agricultural crops. 1963 01:31:38.920 --> 01:31:39.520 OK. 1964 01:31:40.400 --> 01:31:41.000 Thank you. 1965 01:31:41.020 --> 01:31:43.500 Thank you for offering me the opportunity to answer a question, 1966 01:31:43.560 --> 01:31:45.600 but I'm actually going to decline and hand it to our panel 1967 01:31:45.600 --> 01:31:48.780 because it's the last time that you will hear from them this morning, 1968 01:31:48.840 --> 01:31:52.100 and very quickly they're going to answer. 1969 01:31:53.300 --> 01:31:54.100 Very quickly. 1970 01:31:54.140 --> 01:31:55.200 You get that, don't you? 1971 01:31:55.580 --> 01:31:55.980 Suzanne. 1972 01:31:56.600 --> 01:31:58.260 I think it comes down to economics. 1973 01:31:58.440 --> 01:32:02.820 Again, I think that a lot of people would buy and consume organic produce 1974 01:32:02.820 --> 01:32:05.680 if it was the same price as inorganic produce, 1975 01:32:05.840 --> 01:32:08.280 and certainly in the UK that's been found to be the case, 1976 01:32:08.280 --> 01:32:08.900 where organic products are not as expensive 1977 01:32:08.920 --> 01:32:10.680 and organic costs are coming way down, 1978 01:32:10.780 --> 01:32:12.780 and people are buying it more frequently 1979 01:32:12.780 --> 01:32:15.280 because it is a choice that they would like to make, 1980 01:32:15.380 --> 01:32:16.980 but it comes down to an economic choice. 1981 01:32:17.180 --> 01:32:20.700 And if there is a carbon tax on less sustainable practices, 1982 01:32:21.020 --> 01:32:23.300 then it makes that price difference much less. 1983 01:32:23.760 --> 01:32:24.260 Richard. 1984 01:32:24.420 --> 01:32:26.040 Yes, and more... 1985 01:32:26.040 --> 01:32:27.200 Well, to add to that, 1986 01:32:27.920 --> 01:32:30.640 with climate change and dwindling energy supplies, 1987 01:32:31.100 --> 01:32:33.040 the price of fuel is getting higher, 1988 01:32:33.120 --> 01:32:35.020 the price of fertiliser is getting higher, 1989 01:32:35.180 --> 01:32:37.180 the price of transport is getting higher, 1990 01:32:38.140 --> 01:32:38.900 organic food is getting higher, 1991 01:32:38.900 --> 01:32:39.940 organic food is more expensive, 1992 01:32:40.080 --> 01:32:43.660 but interestingly its competitor is getting dearer and dearer by the day. 1993 01:32:43.840 --> 01:32:45.320 So in order to keep it brief, 1994 01:32:46.640 --> 01:32:49.160 if you log on to the Australia Institute website, 1995 01:32:49.640 --> 01:32:50.720 give me your email address, 1996 01:32:50.980 --> 01:32:53.780 I'll give you long answers to everything on a three-minute... 1997 01:32:53.780 --> 01:32:55.320 OK, well, this is turning into a long answer. 1998 01:32:55.340 --> 01:32:56.240 Thank you. Brendan. 1999 01:32:56.580 --> 01:32:58.780 I don't think I have anything concrete to add 2000 01:32:58.780 --> 01:33:02.980 other than just to, you know, observe that talking about food, 2001 01:33:03.040 --> 01:33:07.620 I think, is a really good way to come at the climate change problem, 2002 01:33:07.620 --> 01:33:09.960 because it's something we all need, 2003 01:33:11.080 --> 01:33:12.880 it's central to our lives, 2004 01:33:13.000 --> 01:33:16.420 and it just shows you how connected climate change issue is 2005 01:33:16.420 --> 01:33:17.540 to everything that we do. 2006 01:33:18.720 --> 01:33:19.200 OK. 2007 01:33:21.300 --> 01:33:22.260 It's a good way to end. 2008 01:33:27.600 --> 01:33:31.580 I'd like to thank you for being an absolutely fabulous audience. 2009 01:33:32.020 --> 01:33:33.600 Thank you for your time. 2010 01:33:33.700 --> 01:33:36.620 Thank you for your commitment to the Festival of Ideas. 2011 01:33:36.620 --> 01:33:37.820 Thank you for your questions. 2012 01:33:38.140 --> 01:33:41.660 I think probably the one key thing for me 2013 01:33:41.660 --> 01:33:43.860 that's come out of this morning is to hear 2014 01:33:43.860 --> 01:33:46.860 that it's not just the South Australian Farmers' Federation 2015 01:33:46.860 --> 01:33:48.720 that has very grave concerns 2016 01:33:48.720 --> 01:33:52.860 about the federal government's blind commitment 2017 01:33:52.860 --> 01:33:56.460 to forwarding cap and trade as we have it at the moment, 2018 01:33:56.620 --> 01:33:59.360 as they're certainly trying to continue with. 2019 01:33:59.600 --> 01:34:04.080 On behalf of the Festival of Ideas, 2020 01:34:04.140 --> 01:34:06.040 on behalf of the City of Adelaide 2021 01:34:06.040 --> 01:34:07.220 and the State of South Australia, 2022 01:34:07.440 --> 01:34:11.220 would you take the opportunity to thank our fantastic panellists, 2023 01:34:11.260 --> 01:34:14.360 Suzanne Miller, Richard Dennis and Brendan Mackey. 2024 01:34:14.460 --> 01:34:14.960 Thank you. 2025 01:34:21.740 --> 01:34:23.060 See you next year.