WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.760 Hello everybody, I'm actually Professor Mike Young from the University of Adelaide 2 00:00:04.760 --> 00:00:13.640 and it's my great joy today to welcome a very good friend of mine, Peter Cullen. 3 00:00:14.600 --> 00:00:21.440 Professor Cullen I would like to declare as Australia's greatest water thinker. 4 00:00:23.300 --> 00:00:28.640 Thinking about the River Murray when he was here as Adelaide's thinker in residence, 5 00:00:30.540 --> 00:00:38.620 he observed that Adelaide, if it relied on actually the River Murray as a source of its water, 6 00:00:39.440 --> 00:00:45.020 might be a very bold city and it might need to rethink where it was going to get its water from. 7 00:00:46.340 --> 00:00:51.680 History, many of the things that Peter has said, has proved to be right. 8 00:00:51.820 --> 00:00:55.680 Adelaide is now on very severe water restrictions. 9 00:00:56.680 --> 00:00:59.800 As we sit in this room with it raining outside, 10 00:01:00.000 --> 00:01:06.160 nobody is allowed to water their gardens because we cannot rely on the River Murray. 11 00:01:07.180 --> 00:01:11.240 Peter came to Adelaide in 2004 as a thinker in residence 12 00:01:11.240 --> 00:01:18.300 and had a huge influence on the way South Australia thinks about water. 13 00:01:20.080 --> 00:01:23.800 He is actually a Commissioner of the MXC National Water Commission 14 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:28.780 and unlike many people is still prepared to speak publicly 15 00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:32.740 about the many challenges that Australia faces. 16 00:01:33.880 --> 00:01:43.440 In 2000 Peter was recognised by the Prime Minister as the Environmentalist of the Year. 17 00:01:43.900 --> 00:01:55.120 Peter is a man who strives continuously to help this nation solve its immense water problems in urban and rural Australia. 18 00:01:55.500 --> 00:01:59.980 He is a man who cares passionately about the future of Australia. 19 00:02:03.340 --> 00:02:25.680 He is a chap for which every chap is leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for leaving for 20 00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:29.840 But I guess I have been focusing on water issues for a long time and I'm delighted to 21 00:02:29.840 --> 00:02:34.880 have the chance to share some of those ideas and some of my reflections on where we're 22 00:02:34.880 --> 00:02:35.280 at now. 23 00:02:36.480 --> 00:02:43.040 The title of my talk was deliberately provocative because we were challenged by the organisers 24 00:02:43.040 --> 00:02:49.000 to be provocative, Drought Proofing Australia, Heroic Fantasies and Sobering Realities. 25 00:02:50.940 --> 00:02:56.400 Well, as we've all experienced, Australians are all a little bit scared of running out 26 00:02:56.400 --> 00:02:56.780 of water. 27 00:02:57.140 --> 00:03:03.120 In fact, it's a very sobering thought to think what will our life be like if just air came 28 00:03:03.120 --> 00:03:04.680 out of your taps and not water. 29 00:03:06.140 --> 00:03:09.020 We have caused this problem ourselves. 30 00:03:09.280 --> 00:03:12.100 We've over allocated the water we have. 31 00:03:13.440 --> 00:03:15.620 We've degraded much of our water resource. 32 00:03:17.340 --> 00:03:18.980 Now we've been hit by... 33 00:03:18.980 --> 00:03:23.460 A reasonably unexpected and more severe climate shift than we'd expected. 34 00:03:24.660 --> 00:03:31.480 And whilst people had been predicting global climate change and such things for a long 35 00:03:31.480 --> 00:03:38.240 time, many of us thought, oh, well, that's 2030, 2050, that's not our problem. 36 00:03:39.540 --> 00:03:43.280 Yeah, it sounds a bit nasty, but it's a long way off and we won't have to do anything for 37 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:43.660 a while. 38 00:03:44.020 --> 00:03:45.280 And we didn't do anything. 39 00:03:46.960 --> 00:03:48.280 Now we're facing a climate shift. 40 00:03:48.320 --> 00:03:48.780 Which... 41 00:03:51.540 --> 00:03:53.240 That is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really 42 00:03:53.240 --> 00:03:55.680 complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving 43 00:03:57.020 --> 00:04:00.760 us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated 44 00:04:00.760 --> 00:04:03.760 issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with 45 00:04:03.760 --> 00:04:03.780 this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which 46 00:04:03.780 --> 00:04:04.820 complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving 47 00:04:04.820 --> 00:04:06.200 us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated 48 00:04:06.200 --> 00:04:09.420 issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with 49 00:04:09.420 --> 00:04:10.600 this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which 50 00:04:10.600 --> 00:04:13.080 is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really 51 00:04:13.080 --> 00:04:15.220 complicated issue which is leaving us with this really complicated issue which is 52 00:04:15.220 --> 00:04:18.960 leaving us with this really complicated issue which is leaving us with this really 53 00:04:18.960 --> 00:04:27.560 quite different territory. We now face, I think, quite stark water shortages over much 54 00:04:27.560 --> 00:04:33.740 of southern Australia. What we now understand, and it's great to look back in retrospect, 55 00:04:34.500 --> 00:04:42.120 is that the 1950 to 1990 period has been an unusually wet period. We've now reverted back 56 00:04:42.120 --> 00:04:48.020 to what appears to be perhaps more common. Now I'm not saying this is a cycle, I'm not 57 00:04:48.020 --> 00:04:53.540 saying what the factor is. All I can say is from the streamflow records we're now back 58 00:04:54.200 --> 00:05:00.440 somewhat below the 1900 to 1950 period, which was dramatically drier than the 50s to 90s. 59 00:05:00.700 --> 00:05:07.320 For example, for Sydney, over the 1950 to 1990 had an inflow of 2,000 gigalitres a year. 60 00:05:07.700 --> 00:05:13.180 Over the last 10 years it's gone down to 600. That makes one hell of a difference when you're 61 00:05:13.180 --> 00:05:14.560 planning water supply for a city. 62 00:05:16.640 --> 00:05:17.680 So our 63 00:05:18.760 --> 00:05:24.040 understandings of the agriculture we can support and the urban growth and development we can 64 00:05:24.040 --> 00:05:31.480 support has all brought our ideas of water in what turned out to have been an unusually 65 00:05:31.480 --> 00:05:32.180 wet period. 66 00:05:33.880 --> 00:05:39.280 Whoops. We're now finding much of it's not particularly sustainable. Now we've been 67 00:05:39.280 --> 00:05:44.800 through a period of denial of this, probably over the last four or five years, and now 68 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:47.660 I think we're into the anger stage. We're sort of angry that government is not doing 69 00:05:56.940 --> 00:06:01.440 much for this area. That government is leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving 70 00:06:01.440 --> 00:06:04.460 this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving 71 00:06:04.460 --> 00:06:05.820 this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving 72 00:06:05.820 --> 00:06:05.840 this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving 73 00:06:05.840 --> 00:06:08.880 this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving 74 00:06:08.880 --> 00:06:16.200 this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving this area for leaving 75 00:06:16.200 --> 00:06:24.580 protect a minimum supply for Adelaide. We hear proposals for civil disobedience when that water 76 00:06:24.580 --> 00:06:29.160 might be released to come down to Adelaide. I understand the Mayor of Wukul said there'd be 77 00:06:29.160 --> 00:06:34.220 civil disobedience if they were threatened with water restrictions because they needed to keep 78 00:06:34.220 --> 00:06:39.980 their green city, green town. So even if we do hold water upstream for various purposes, 79 00:06:39.980 --> 00:06:46.060 how would we get it downstream without those pumps going all night, every night, sucking it out? 80 00:06:48.260 --> 00:06:55.500 Well, the trouble or the interesting part about this dilemma is not only do we know what we have 81 00:06:55.500 --> 00:07:01.720 to do, but the Premiers and the Prime Ministers have all signed off to do it. That's the National 82 00:07:01.720 --> 00:07:07.860 Water Initiative. And without getting lost in a lot of bureaucratic words, it means measure all 83 00:07:07.860 --> 00:07:09.960 the water we've got. It means measure all the water we've got. It means measure all the water 84 00:07:09.960 --> 00:07:15.220 allocated and control the extractions. Something we've never addressed as yet in Australia, 85 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:18.700 but is addressing compliance. What about the people who are just stealing water? 86 00:07:19.540 --> 00:07:24.300 Present water accounts for each valley so we know what water's there, what's going to the 87 00:07:24.300 --> 00:07:29.200 environment, what's going to various consumptive users, and what's going to downstream people. 88 00:07:29.620 --> 00:07:33.560 And start to understand the groundwater and the surface water interconnection, 89 00:07:33.560 --> 00:07:38.940 which we've been in denial about for 100 years. People believe that you can just put a bore down 90 00:07:38.940 --> 00:07:39.940 and suck out ground. But we've got to understand that. And we've got to understand that. And we've 91 00:07:39.960 --> 00:07:43.320 got to understand that groundwater is as though it is a magic pudding. Not accepting that that is 92 00:07:43.840 --> 00:07:48.200 replenished by rain for. And often there is a connection between the river flow and groundwater. 93 00:07:49.980 --> 00:07:54.400 We know we've got to drive efficiency in the way we use water in urban and rural Australia. 94 00:07:54.640 --> 00:08:00.820 And we know we can do that with better planning, better pricing, benchmarking and improving infrastructure. 95 00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:07.580 And the other commitment that governments have made, and they're not showing an awful lot of signs of getting there 96 00:08:07.580 --> 00:08:08.620 but they might be. 97 00:08:08.900 --> 00:08:09.500 is to 98 00:08:09.500 --> 00:08:12.840 to return over allocated systems to sustainable levels of extraction. 99 00:08:14.980 --> 00:08:19.240 Well, they're all pretty simple and as I say the Prime Minister and the Premier signed 100 00:08:19.240 --> 00:08:20.760 them off a couple of years ago. 101 00:08:21.100 --> 00:08:22.440 Why haven't we done it? 102 00:08:23.060 --> 00:08:24.980 Why has it been so hard to do? 103 00:08:27.080 --> 00:08:33.380 Well I guess everyone is frightened that if something like this is done, how will it impact 104 00:08:33.380 --> 00:08:33.980 on them? 105 00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:37.120 Will they be disadvantaged in some way? 106 00:08:38.060 --> 00:08:44.380 We've just heard recently farmers in Queensland arguing that the new Prime Minister's plan 107 00:08:44.380 --> 00:08:49.500 for water security is unfair if they're made to put metres on their bores that they take 108 00:08:49.500 --> 00:08:50.780 water out for stock and domestic. 109 00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:54.380 Well what nonsense. 110 00:08:55.720 --> 00:09:03.080 If we allow special interest groups to claim they're special and should be exempted, we 111 00:09:03.080 --> 00:09:04.440 are going to be in deep trouble. 112 00:09:04.800 --> 00:09:06.240 This is like... 113 00:09:06.240 --> 00:09:07.100 I don't know. 114 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:07.960 I don't know what you're talking about. 115 00:09:07.960 --> 00:09:13.640 Like you're having a bank account where you don't get debited for withdrawals for groceries. 116 00:09:14.800 --> 00:09:20.140 Stock and domestic are a very substantial user of water and they need to be taken into 117 00:09:20.140 --> 00:09:21.140 the water account. 118 00:09:21.240 --> 00:09:24.660 We need to be counting and measuring all of those extractions. 119 00:09:24.920 --> 00:09:29.160 Each one of them might be quite small, but in aggregate there's an awful lot of water 120 00:09:29.160 --> 00:09:29.840 going that way. 121 00:09:31.220 --> 00:09:34.240 And it's fun to poke fun at the farmers in Queensland. 122 00:09:34.340 --> 00:09:36.280 I know that's a South Australian pastime. 123 00:09:37.660 --> 00:09:43.640 But look at your own failures in South Australia to declare the hills catchments, which are 124 00:09:43.640 --> 00:09:45.140 a key part of your water supply. 125 00:09:45.340 --> 00:09:48.460 They were only declared, I think, after my period here in 2004. 126 00:09:49.040 --> 00:09:53.220 And as I understand it, you're still failing to declare your groundwater resources on the 127 00:09:53.220 --> 00:09:58.980 Adelaide Plains, a large potential source of water, one that you might desperately need, 128 00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:03.660 and yet you're allowing people to suck it out as though there is no tomorrow. 129 00:10:04.260 --> 00:10:07.100 That doesn't seem a very smart way to manage a situation like this. 130 00:10:07.100 --> 00:10:08.260 It's a scarce water resource to me. 131 00:10:09.640 --> 00:10:13.140 And you wonder why governments and communities are so slow. 132 00:10:14.080 --> 00:10:15.820 Part of it is our lack of knowledge. 133 00:10:15.920 --> 00:10:19.700 We don't perhaps know what the impacts will be if we do various things. 134 00:10:20.760 --> 00:10:22.840 Everyone is just a bit frightened about it. 135 00:10:23.500 --> 00:10:25.120 Our knowledge base is limited. 136 00:10:26.900 --> 00:10:31.000 Sure, it would be lovely to have a better understanding of sustainable levels of extraction 137 00:10:31.000 --> 00:10:32.140 and issues like that. 138 00:10:32.200 --> 00:10:33.780 And I spent a lot of my time working on that. 139 00:10:35.800 --> 00:10:36.320 Yes. 140 00:10:36.520 --> 00:10:37.080 What I've done. 141 00:10:37.080 --> 00:10:40.800 What are the impacts of all these farm dams people put down and capture water before it 142 00:10:40.800 --> 00:10:41.640 gets into the rivers? 143 00:10:42.040 --> 00:10:45.960 What has been the impact of plantations in lowering groundwater? 144 00:10:46.920 --> 00:10:51.200 But we know enough about all of those things to know, hey, stop. 145 00:10:51.480 --> 00:10:52.160 This is silly. 146 00:10:52.940 --> 00:10:56.380 We need to be building all of these into our water accounts. 147 00:10:58.540 --> 00:11:02.660 But because particular interest groups think that they'll be disadvantaged if we do that, 148 00:11:02.800 --> 00:11:05.260 there's political pressure not to do anything. 149 00:11:05.260 --> 00:11:07.360 And it's really interesting now. 150 00:11:07.400 --> 00:11:15.860 I've been in this business a long time and there's a whole set of routine ways you use 151 00:11:15.860 --> 00:11:18.900 to create smoke screens if you don't want governments to do anything. 152 00:11:19.700 --> 00:11:21.700 The first thing is you deny there's a problem. 153 00:11:22.060 --> 00:11:23.960 There's no problem with the health of the Murray. 154 00:11:24.160 --> 00:11:26.480 There's no health, no problem with water shortage. 155 00:11:27.100 --> 00:11:30.360 Well, those of you who know the Lower Murray know that there's real problems with the health 156 00:11:30.360 --> 00:11:30.820 of the Murray. 157 00:11:31.200 --> 00:11:35.240 And we've probably now crossed a threshold where the current water shortage is a real 158 00:11:35.240 --> 00:11:35.500 problem. 159 00:11:35.700 --> 00:11:41.000 And perhaps the Lower Murray floodplain will never return to what we might have known in 160 00:11:41.000 --> 00:11:42.100 past years. 161 00:11:42.500 --> 00:11:44.880 So the first strategy is to deny the problem. 162 00:11:45.440 --> 00:11:50.640 The second one is to delay any action by disputing the cause of the problem. 163 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:53.860 It's not our over-extraction that's causing the problem. 164 00:11:54.380 --> 00:12:00.740 It's climate, weather, carp or cubby station. 165 00:12:01.880 --> 00:12:05.000 We can always find something to do. 166 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:05.220 We can always find something to do. 167 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:11.780 That is leaving us with aップgeorge which is leaving us with aップgeorge which is 168 00:12:11.780 --> 00:12:14.940 leaving us with aップgeorge which is leaving us with aップgeorge which is 169 00:12:14.940 --> 00:12:18.720 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 170 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:20.800 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 171 00:12:20.800 --> 00:12:21.440 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 172 00:12:21.440 --> 00:12:22.020 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 173 00:12:22.020 --> 00:12:22.840 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 174 00:12:22.840 --> 00:12:24.020 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 175 00:12:24.020 --> 00:12:24.620 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 176 00:12:24.620 --> 00:12:25.680 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 177 00:12:25.680 --> 00:12:28.680 leaving us with aップgeorge which is leaving us with aップgeorge which is 178 00:12:28.680 --> 00:12:29.780 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 179 00:12:29.780 --> 00:12:33.160 leaving us with aップgeorge which is leaving us with aップgeorge which is 180 00:12:33.160 --> 00:12:35.220 leaving us with aップgeorge which is 181 00:12:35.220 --> 00:12:39.140 it's just there to confuse the issue, to delay anyone taking action, 182 00:12:39.280 --> 00:12:41.420 to say, hey, look, there's enough doubt here, 183 00:12:41.640 --> 00:12:43.300 let's have another committee of inquiry, 184 00:12:43.880 --> 00:12:47.920 let's have another three or four years of us plundering this resource 185 00:12:47.920 --> 00:12:49.240 to get as rich as we can. 186 00:12:49.780 --> 00:12:54.600 So our third strategy is to engage advocates to just confuse the issue. 187 00:12:55.560 --> 00:12:58.940 And the fourth strategy, which sometimes runs in parallel with all of those, 188 00:12:59.100 --> 00:13:04.000 is to threaten people, particularly scientists, 189 00:13:04.000 --> 00:13:06.340 who are saying things that are uncomfortable 190 00:13:06.340 --> 00:13:09.900 by threatening to cut off their grants, sack them or whatever. 191 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:12.760 And particularly scientists in government, 192 00:13:12.920 --> 00:13:15.800 there are some very good ones who know a lot about these things, 193 00:13:15.860 --> 00:13:20.120 are not allowed to speak and inform the community as to their knowledge. 194 00:13:20.760 --> 00:13:23.200 So they're the tactics I've seen. 195 00:13:23.480 --> 00:13:26.600 They're exactly the same tactics we saw with smoking and health, 196 00:13:26.800 --> 00:13:30.120 and we've seen it with river health and with river over-allocation. 197 00:13:32.320 --> 00:13:33.980 But the most common reason, 198 00:13:34.000 --> 00:13:37.120 the most common response we all have is to blame someone else for all of our problems, 199 00:13:37.300 --> 00:13:40.600 and then sit back pretty smugly feeling hardly done by. 200 00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:43.720 And I have to say, when I was here in 2004, 201 00:13:44.100 --> 00:13:48.000 I think every second South Australian told me that their source of all 202 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:51.720 of their problems was Cubby Station, who sucked out all of the water, 203 00:13:51.820 --> 00:13:54.820 and if it wasn't for them, the Murray would be wonderful. 204 00:13:55.380 --> 00:13:58.460 So Cubby became a symbol for over-extraction, 205 00:13:58.740 --> 00:14:03.120 and whilst there is over-extraction and a lot of problems, Cubby, 206 00:14:03.220 --> 00:14:03.980 the amount of water that's in the water, the amount of water that's in the water, 207 00:14:04.000 --> 00:14:06.480 the amount of water Cubby takes is 1% of the flow at Morgan. 208 00:14:08.880 --> 00:14:11.600 But if it's not Cubby, it's an upstream state, 209 00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:16.100 and I guess one of the challenges of living on a river is the tension 210 00:14:16.100 --> 00:14:19.100 between those who live upstream and those who live downstream. 211 00:14:21.340 --> 00:14:24.520 And I think there's some really interesting ethical issues there to discuss 212 00:14:24.520 --> 00:14:27.320 about what are our obligations to our downstream neighbours. 213 00:14:29.460 --> 00:14:32.520 So that's an ongoing tension between upstream and downstream. 214 00:14:32.520 --> 00:14:36.700 Well, let me just now come to the heroic fantasies 215 00:14:36.700 --> 00:14:39.340 that do seem to be driving our country. 216 00:14:39.720 --> 00:14:43.480 And my first fantasy is we can pinch someone else's water. 217 00:14:44.520 --> 00:14:48.160 When we're confronted with a pretty wicked problem like water shortage, 218 00:14:49.020 --> 00:14:51.680 it's probably not a surprise that there are a whole lot 219 00:14:51.680 --> 00:14:54.720 of simplistic solutions that people advocate, 220 00:14:54.840 --> 00:15:00.860 and radio shock jocks are really good at picking the more stupid of these to advocate. 221 00:15:01.560 --> 00:15:02.500 And generally, I think the most important thing is that we have to be able to do this. 222 00:15:02.500 --> 00:15:05.180 And generally, the first strategy is can we pinch someone else's water? 223 00:15:06.400 --> 00:15:09.180 Now, the assumption is that those other people don't want the water 224 00:15:09.180 --> 00:15:11.040 or don't have a right to use it, 225 00:15:11.080 --> 00:15:17.440 or that it's not already providing some critical ecosystem services to us. 226 00:15:18.500 --> 00:15:22.680 Now, the best example, of course, is the seasonal flooding of northern rivers, 227 00:15:23.460 --> 00:15:25.660 where large volumes of water rush to the sea. 228 00:15:26.560 --> 00:15:31.940 To many people, this water's being wasted, and we now have a committee that Senator Heffernan's 229 00:15:32.500 --> 00:15:34.880 chairing to try to explore how that can be exploited. 230 00:15:36.280 --> 00:15:40.900 There is no doubt that 60% of Australian runoff is in those northern drainage basins 231 00:15:40.900 --> 00:15:41.980 and does go to the sea. 232 00:15:43.220 --> 00:15:47.060 And many long to cart this plentiful water to the parched south. 233 00:15:48.800 --> 00:15:51.760 But those floods are doing quite useful things up there. 234 00:15:51.880 --> 00:15:56.140 Not only do they wet the floodplains and allow pastoral activities to continue, 235 00:15:56.900 --> 00:16:02.480 but the pulses of fresh water that go into the coastal water are what drive the prawn fisheries. 236 00:16:02.480 --> 00:16:05.600 And many of us enjoy the beneficiaries of that. 237 00:16:06.760 --> 00:16:11.860 So there are some quite important fisheries and coastal ecosystem implications from that water. 238 00:16:15.860 --> 00:16:21.880 The next simplistic assumption is that we can transport water long distances at little cost. 239 00:16:23.560 --> 00:16:27.100 And when you listen to the radio shock jocks proclaiming this, 240 00:16:27.720 --> 00:16:31.160 you've got to believe they look at a map of Australia and say, well, 241 00:16:31.180 --> 00:16:32.460 since the water's in the north, 242 00:16:32.460 --> 00:16:37.200 it will just run downhill to the south if we just build something. 243 00:16:39.600 --> 00:16:45.420 And probably our best example was the proposal to have a channel from the Kimberleys to supply water for Perth. 244 00:16:45.780 --> 00:16:49.740 Now, this was a serious suggestion at the last Western Australian election, 245 00:16:50.600 --> 00:16:51.880 and they very nearly got elected. 246 00:16:53.420 --> 00:16:56.700 Now, that channel could have produced water for Perth. 247 00:16:56.720 --> 00:16:57.640 There's no doubt about that. 248 00:16:58.300 --> 00:17:00.980 It would have cost $6 a kiloliter. 249 00:17:01.580 --> 00:17:02.100 Now, 250 00:17:02.100 --> 00:17:04.560 the solution they've in fact chosen is desalination, 251 00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:06.200 which they're doing for $1.20. 252 00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:10.960 So if they had built that channel, 253 00:17:11.060 --> 00:17:14.600 it would have effectively doubled the water bill for every Perth household. 254 00:17:15.580 --> 00:17:16.280 In fact, 255 00:17:16.300 --> 00:17:17.560 when the analysis was done, 256 00:17:17.700 --> 00:17:18.160 of course, 257 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:18.920 after the election, 258 00:17:19.080 --> 00:17:20.980 because they never do the analyses before the election, 259 00:17:21.580 --> 00:17:26.200 it was found it was cheaper to cart water down by tanker than by channel. 260 00:17:27.640 --> 00:17:29.380 At least with a tanker, 261 00:17:29.380 --> 00:17:31.380 if you can get them off the beaches at Newcastle, 262 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:32.080 it was cheaper to cart water down by tanker than by channel. 263 00:17:32.080 --> 00:17:34.360 There's probably some cheap secondhand tankers around. 264 00:17:36.200 --> 00:17:38.960 At least you only have to run them when you're short of water. 265 00:17:39.020 --> 00:17:40.120 You don't run them all the time. 266 00:17:41.640 --> 00:17:44.480 Yet this was a serious proposal taken to an election. 267 00:17:46.500 --> 00:17:50.300 My second fantasy is we live in a wetter world than we do. 268 00:17:51.300 --> 00:17:55.900 Most Australians seem to believe that the odd wet year we have is in fact the norm, 269 00:17:56.040 --> 00:17:59.680 and all of the others are some drought to be greeted with indignant surprise. 270 00:18:00.580 --> 00:18:02.060 How often, whenever we have a drought, we have to deal with it. 271 00:18:02.060 --> 00:18:04.280 It's a one in a hundred year drought. 272 00:18:04.560 --> 00:18:06.800 I've had about 30 of them in my lifetime, 273 00:18:07.080 --> 00:18:09.980 so something's really happening with the statistics. 274 00:18:11.600 --> 00:18:18.940 A few good years and we rush into a misunderstanding of the Australian landscape and do silly things, 275 00:18:19.200 --> 00:18:23.980 and then we get shocked when we go back to a drier phase. 276 00:18:24.300 --> 00:18:30.280 Look at the idea of putting permanent irrigation plants on the Darling River at Bourke. 277 00:18:31.060 --> 00:18:32.040 An ephemeral solution for this is to have a drought system. 278 00:18:32.040 --> 00:18:36.520 It's a ephemeral river used to long periods of no water in it. 279 00:18:37.600 --> 00:18:42.580 Long history of river boats being stranded for months because there was no water. 280 00:18:42.680 --> 00:18:45.960 Yet here we are putting permanent irrigated agriculture in there. 281 00:18:46.160 --> 00:18:49.980 And then we're shocked and surprised when all of a sudden there's no irrigation water 282 00:18:49.980 --> 00:18:56.180 and we're wringing our hands because all those people are in desperate hardships as the plantations 283 00:18:56.180 --> 00:18:57.080 or the plantings die. 284 00:18:57.980 --> 00:19:01.220 It would be great if they could blame upstream cotton growers like Cubby. 285 00:19:01.300 --> 00:19:02.020 But unfortunately, they're not. 286 00:19:02.040 --> 00:19:03.400 They haven't had any water either. 287 00:19:05.140 --> 00:19:09.520 It just so happens to be the climate we live in, the land of droughts and flooding rains. 288 00:19:09.740 --> 00:19:11.060 We all know it in our literature. 289 00:19:11.100 --> 00:19:13.400 We just don't seem to understand it in our brains. 290 00:19:14.740 --> 00:19:19.140 And yet the climate shifts we're facing suggest this variability is going to become greater. 291 00:19:20.720 --> 00:19:24.240 So perhaps it's a fantasy to believe we can drought-proof the country. 292 00:19:24.580 --> 00:19:26.940 What we've got to do is learn to live with this variability. 293 00:19:28.940 --> 00:19:32.020 And my third fantasy is linked to the 294 00:19:32.040 --> 00:19:36.940 others, the idea that political focus groups are a substitute for serious water planning. 295 00:19:38.020 --> 00:19:43.720 Governments have systematically removed the strategic water planning capacity from water 296 00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:44.340 agencies. 297 00:19:44.960 --> 00:19:46.520 They've slimmed them down. 298 00:19:46.740 --> 00:19:52.560 They've had fashions in government like separation of purchasers and providers and policy from 299 00:19:52.560 --> 00:19:53.020 practice. 300 00:19:53.340 --> 00:19:59.240 And during the good times, the 1950 to 1990 when we had a lot of water, this all worked 301 00:19:59.240 --> 00:19:59.760 pretty well. 302 00:19:59.920 --> 00:20:02.020 It seemed quite safe to run down the water. 303 00:20:02.020 --> 00:20:17.920 That is leaving 304 00:20:17.920 --> 00:20:22.940 and so politicians get these funny ideas at election time 305 00:20:22.940 --> 00:20:26.300 and we get these heroic proposals like the Kimberley Canal. 306 00:20:27.280 --> 00:20:31.520 As I say, each election seems to see a new rush of them. 307 00:20:32.660 --> 00:20:36.180 Well, some sobering realities that we need to face as a country. 308 00:20:38.580 --> 00:20:41.680 I guess my first one flicks into my last one, 309 00:20:41.760 --> 00:20:47.220 that visionary politicians are really no substitute for serious water planning. 310 00:20:47.220 --> 00:20:52.240 We do need planners who can assess the needs and understand the available resource, 311 00:20:52.640 --> 00:20:59.560 who can identify the variety of ways of which we can meet the needs of urban and rural communities. 312 00:21:01.540 --> 00:21:06.120 Planners who've got the capacity to assess the technical merits of each proposal, 313 00:21:06.920 --> 00:21:09.560 also to assess the economics of each proposal. 314 00:21:10.600 --> 00:21:13.800 In my view, we now have to consider all the environmental costs, 315 00:21:13.920 --> 00:21:16.740 but as a special subset of the environmental costs, 316 00:21:16.780 --> 00:21:17.200 we've got to... 317 00:21:17.220 --> 00:21:18.680 We've got to do a greenhouse gas calculation 318 00:21:20.500 --> 00:21:24.040 because each of the proposals we have to provide water for our cities 319 00:21:24.040 --> 00:21:25.640 involves greater greenhouse gas. 320 00:21:26.020 --> 00:21:29.260 So we have this wonderful sort of situation 321 00:21:29.260 --> 00:21:31.920 where as water gets more scarce, 322 00:21:32.160 --> 00:21:35.680 all of our solutions seem to drive climate change, 323 00:21:35.840 --> 00:21:37.420 which is going to make it get worse still. 324 00:21:37.660 --> 00:21:40.620 Something like a dog chasing its tail in the wrong direction. 325 00:21:41.540 --> 00:21:45.500 So we need to understand the greenhouse gas implications of each of our proposals. 326 00:21:45.840 --> 00:21:47.200 And of course, the third one is, 327 00:21:47.220 --> 00:21:48.120 how is social acceptability? 328 00:21:48.680 --> 00:21:51.560 How ready are the people of Adelaide to drink recycled water? 329 00:21:52.580 --> 00:21:56.060 And many of our urban communities in Australia are now facing that question. 330 00:21:56.320 --> 00:21:58.280 And it'll be interesting to see how they get through it. 331 00:22:00.040 --> 00:22:03.460 I think one of the other things about water planning is, 332 00:22:04.140 --> 00:22:09.620 you don't want to just seize on one option and champion it to death. 333 00:22:10.180 --> 00:22:12.200 If you were trying to find the best racehorse, 334 00:22:12.300 --> 00:22:14.800 you wouldn't put one horse around the Melbourne Cup course. 335 00:22:15.280 --> 00:22:17.140 You'd put around a lot of courses. 336 00:22:17.140 --> 00:22:20.060 And by the end of the day, you'd find out which one was best. 337 00:22:20.500 --> 00:22:22.360 And yet quite often in water planning, 338 00:22:22.640 --> 00:22:27.100 we see a particular single proposal being championed 339 00:22:27.100 --> 00:22:29.880 and all the others not being evaluated so seriously. 340 00:22:30.220 --> 00:22:34.720 So you'd expect to see half a dozen serious workable propositions 341 00:22:34.720 --> 00:22:37.940 being evaluated by governments when they're doing water planning. 342 00:22:38.280 --> 00:22:40.180 And maybe all of them will be implemented. 343 00:22:40.360 --> 00:22:42.080 The question is which one to implement next. 344 00:22:44.240 --> 00:22:44.760 So... 345 00:22:48.020 --> 00:22:51.680 The idea of having in our list of augmentation options, 346 00:22:51.820 --> 00:22:54.300 some options that don't rely on rainfall, 347 00:22:55.040 --> 00:22:58.180 which is where recycling and desalination become attractive, 348 00:22:58.500 --> 00:23:01.020 even though they've got energy costs and other problems. 349 00:23:03.740 --> 00:23:05.740 So we can't drought-proof this country, 350 00:23:05.840 --> 00:23:09.240 but we can diversify our sources of water 351 00:23:09.820 --> 00:23:12.520 to let us better manage the risks that we're coping with. 352 00:23:14.020 --> 00:23:17.120 My second reality is the need for us to learn to live with the 353 00:23:17.140 --> 00:23:17.760 and to live within our means. 354 00:23:19.420 --> 00:23:21.580 You'd think that after the pretty sobering experiences 355 00:23:21.580 --> 00:23:24.440 of mistaken development in the north of South Australia 356 00:23:25.260 --> 00:23:27.180 and the environmental and social disasters 357 00:23:27.180 --> 00:23:30.000 that were predicted by Goida, 358 00:23:30.740 --> 00:23:31.900 you'd think we might have learned. 359 00:23:32.780 --> 00:23:36.620 But developers and politicians all said, 360 00:23:36.700 --> 00:23:40.520 let's not listen to the man of science, Goida. 361 00:23:41.100 --> 00:23:43.520 Practical men know far better than scientists. 362 00:23:43.940 --> 00:23:46.360 Let's get on and develop this wonderful, rich, 363 00:23:46.360 --> 00:23:47.940 north of South Australia. 364 00:23:49.160 --> 00:23:52.700 Well, the legacy of that mistaken thinking is there still 365 00:23:52.700 --> 00:23:55.360 as we drive around that country and see the ruins. 366 00:23:56.520 --> 00:24:00.140 And you think about the pain and the misery to those people 367 00:24:00.680 --> 00:24:02.620 and think about the degradation to that landscape 368 00:24:03.240 --> 00:24:04.600 that that stupidity caused. 369 00:24:05.980 --> 00:24:08.640 But alas, we seem to be pretty slow learners. 370 00:24:08.900 --> 00:24:12.920 As I've said before, permanent plantings on an ephemeral river 371 00:24:12.920 --> 00:24:16.260 like the Darling never seemed really a good idea. 372 00:24:17.700 --> 00:24:20.980 We continue to base our understandings of what's sensible 373 00:24:20.980 --> 00:24:22.680 in this country on the odd good year, 374 00:24:22.780 --> 00:24:27.240 rather than understanding the range of good and dry years we have. 375 00:24:27.600 --> 00:24:29.560 We live in a very variable climate. 376 00:24:29.880 --> 00:24:31.840 And we've got to learn to live without our means, 377 00:24:32.420 --> 00:24:34.080 rather than just hope. 378 00:24:35.980 --> 00:24:38.440 If someone wants to start a new irrigation farm 379 00:24:39.140 --> 00:24:41.160 under our current arrangements, they've got to go 380 00:24:41.160 --> 00:24:43.000 and buy a water licence from someone else. 381 00:24:43.600 --> 00:24:45.420 And so that's a good strategy. 382 00:24:45.420 --> 00:24:48.860 It lets water move from low value to high value uses. 383 00:24:49.440 --> 00:24:53.620 But if you want to start a new city, you subdivide the land, 384 00:24:53.780 --> 00:24:55.820 make a lot of money, and then say to governments, 385 00:24:55.960 --> 00:24:57.700 oh, whoops, can you find us some water? 386 00:24:57.980 --> 00:25:00.880 And so the cost of all that is just flicked to government. 387 00:25:01.780 --> 00:25:02.920 Let's turn that around. 388 00:25:03.180 --> 00:25:05.520 Let's say the developer who wants to subdivide land 389 00:25:05.520 --> 00:25:07.560 needs to also buy a water licence. 390 00:25:08.640 --> 00:25:10.540 He might buy that from a water authority 391 00:25:10.540 --> 00:25:12.260 who's going to build a desalination plant 392 00:25:12.260 --> 00:25:13.340 or something like that. 393 00:25:13.480 --> 00:25:15.400 But let's link urban development 394 00:25:15.400 --> 00:25:18.300 with water availability, rather than pretend 395 00:25:18.300 --> 00:25:21.380 there's no connection and then call on governments 396 00:25:21.380 --> 00:25:23.440 to fix something afterwards. 397 00:25:27.520 --> 00:25:31.200 Similarly, farm dams, stock and domestic extractions, 398 00:25:31.300 --> 00:25:34.200 groundwater are all poorly regulated. 399 00:25:36.880 --> 00:25:39.240 They don't create new water. 400 00:25:39.380 --> 00:25:40.960 They're taking it from somewhere else. 401 00:25:41.200 --> 00:25:44.020