WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:11.040 Welcome all, and it's a great pleasure to welcome you here today to this session of the Festival Ideas, Population Futures for South Australia. 2 00:00:11.660 --> 00:00:20.020 I'm just delighted to be able to chair this session and to chair the presentation given by Professor Graeme Hugo. 3 00:00:20.320 --> 00:00:23.860 My name's Adam Graycar. I work for the state government. 4 00:00:23.860 --> 00:00:34.020 I suppose I shuffle the papers and sign the leave forms, and people like Graeme do the thinking for us, and somehow or other we make it all come together. 5 00:00:35.080 --> 00:00:43.820 Demography is, I suppose the old cliche is demography is destiny, but demography and population are just significantly important issues. 6 00:00:44.060 --> 00:00:52.020 We live in a world of enormous paradox. We hear some parts of our history saying we must populate or perish. 7 00:00:52.280 --> 00:00:53.840 We hear others saying that... 8 00:00:53.860 --> 00:01:00.260 If our population increases and increases, it'll put enormous pressure on our environment, on our sustainability. 9 00:01:00.800 --> 00:01:05.340 We have opposing views. We have unified views. We have paradoxes. 10 00:01:05.540 --> 00:01:11.080 We've got it all. We live in a world that's full of paradox, and population is about paradox. 11 00:01:11.320 --> 00:01:17.880 In our world, we have taller buildings. We have shorter tempers. We have wider freeways. 12 00:01:18.080 --> 00:01:23.440 We have narrower viewpoints. We have more appliances, less convenience, less time. 13 00:01:23.480 --> 00:01:23.840 More maintenance. 14 00:01:23.860 --> 00:01:26.380 We have less medicine, less wellness. 15 00:01:26.960 --> 00:01:30.180 But we have bigger houses, but smaller families. 16 00:01:30.380 --> 00:01:33.320 And these are real fundamental demographic issues. 17 00:01:33.540 --> 00:01:38.720 We've added years to life, but we haven't always added life to years. 18 00:01:39.240 --> 00:01:43.880 And demography, population, as Graeme will tell you, is not just about numbers. 19 00:01:44.120 --> 00:01:46.500 It's not just about more or less. 20 00:01:46.780 --> 00:01:49.320 It's about balances. It's about understanding. 21 00:01:49.640 --> 00:01:50.680 It's about dynamics. 22 00:01:50.980 --> 00:01:52.720 And there's nobody better. 23 00:01:53.020 --> 00:01:53.840 A little question. 24 00:01:53.860 --> 00:01:56.720 Graeme Hugo to take us through these issues. 25 00:01:57.120 --> 00:02:01.480 Graeme, as the screen says, is Federation Fellow. 26 00:02:01.600 --> 00:02:10.060 He's Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of Geographic Information Systems at the University of Adelaide. 27 00:02:10.240 --> 00:02:14.320 He's an internationally renowned demographer. 28 00:02:14.640 --> 00:02:19.900 He's studied and understood population issues all around the world. 29 00:02:19.960 --> 00:02:22.620 He's contributed to numerous international... 30 00:02:23.860 --> 00:02:25.100 He's been on national commissions on population. 31 00:02:25.260 --> 00:02:28.340 His name is well known in all demographic circles. 32 00:02:28.720 --> 00:02:34.040 But most importantly of all, his name is well known as a generator of ideas, as a mentor 33 00:02:34.040 --> 00:02:40.100 of students, as a person who can give a guiding light to help us understand these complex 34 00:02:40.100 --> 00:02:40.580 issues. 35 00:02:40.980 --> 00:02:43.480 Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Professor Graeme Hugo. 36 00:02:46.360 --> 00:02:47.620 Graeme Hugo, Professor of Geography and Data Science, University of Adelaide, USA 37 00:02:49.580 --> 00:02:51.080 Thanks very much, Adam. 38 00:02:51.180 --> 00:02:53.720 And thanks very much for coming along. 39 00:02:53.720 --> 00:02:54.720 This evening. 40 00:02:55.080 --> 00:02:59.740 I must say, as someone who's studied population in Australia for the last 30 years or so, 41 00:02:59.820 --> 00:03:04.440 I found it a little bit disconcerting that all of a sudden we've been discovered by such 42 00:03:04.440 --> 00:03:12.400 luminaries as the Treasurer, who's now talking about demography as destiny and fertility 43 00:03:12.400 --> 00:03:13.340 and so on. 44 00:03:13.600 --> 00:03:22.160 But I think it is true that population dynamics has been discovered at the governmental level, 45 00:03:22.160 --> 00:03:28.340 and it's realised that there is something to understanding the dynamics of population 46 00:03:28.340 --> 00:03:36.620 change which can contribute to planning for a better future for Australia and for the 47 00:03:36.620 --> 00:03:36.920 state. 48 00:03:37.200 --> 00:03:44.660 What I'm going to do tonight is to begin by saying a few things in general about population, 49 00:03:44.660 --> 00:03:49.740 because I think there are some myths which need to be got rid of right at the outset. 50 00:03:50.440 --> 00:03:52.140 Then I'll say a little bit about the population. 51 00:03:52.160 --> 00:03:57.540 A little bit about the current situation with respect to how population is changing in South 52 00:03:57.540 --> 00:03:57.960 Australia. 53 00:03:58.620 --> 00:04:05.220 And then I'll finish up by giving a very personal view of what I think might be a future for 54 00:04:05.220 --> 00:04:07.660 the population in South Australia. 55 00:04:07.840 --> 00:04:14.720 And I say it's very personal because I believe very strongly that this state and Australia 56 00:04:14.720 --> 00:04:19.200 indeed needs a vision for its population in the future. 57 00:04:19.340 --> 00:04:22.140 And I also believe quite strongly that that vision is not going to be a vision for the 58 00:04:22.140 --> 00:04:22.240 people of South Australia. 59 00:04:22.240 --> 00:04:26.960 I think that that vision shouldn't be the vision of a small group of academics or elite 60 00:04:26.960 --> 00:04:27.500 or whatever. 61 00:04:27.680 --> 00:04:33.940 It has to be something which is debated, talked about and considered in the community much 62 00:04:33.940 --> 00:04:34.500 more widely. 63 00:04:34.700 --> 00:04:41.080 And I think the Festival of Ideas is an excellent place for, arena for this to happen. 64 00:04:41.660 --> 00:04:46.060 At the outset I should say that I've quite deliberately entered the field of demography 65 00:04:46.060 --> 00:04:49.780 because I believe very fundamentally that people are important. 66 00:04:49.980 --> 00:04:50.980 That understanding. 67 00:04:50.980 --> 00:04:54.680 How society is changing. 68 00:04:55.440 --> 00:04:57.360 How the economy is changing. 69 00:04:58.760 --> 00:05:03.120 Looking at population, looking at the way the population is changing is one real window 70 00:05:03.120 --> 00:05:06.180 into understanding those processes. 71 00:05:06.540 --> 00:05:11.320 But I see demography and the analysis of population as a means to an end. 72 00:05:11.420 --> 00:05:16.720 As a means to gaining a greater understanding of societal change. 73 00:05:17.620 --> 00:05:18.860 Just at the outset then. 74 00:05:18.880 --> 00:05:19.440 A couple of. 75 00:05:19.440 --> 00:05:21.180 Dispelling a couple of myths. 76 00:05:21.400 --> 00:05:23.320 The population is not declining. 77 00:05:23.460 --> 00:05:24.260 It's not even static. 78 00:05:24.420 --> 00:05:27.700 It's increasing in South Australia. 79 00:05:29.220 --> 00:05:36.720 And what I'm encountering in recent times is I guess two diametrically opposed views 80 00:05:36.720 --> 00:05:37.320 of population. 81 00:05:37.820 --> 00:05:42.600 On the one hand you have people who suggest that population is simply a function of the 82 00:05:42.600 --> 00:05:43.000 economy. 83 00:05:43.160 --> 00:05:47.220 That it's just something which results from economic change. 84 00:05:47.220 --> 00:05:53.900 At the other end there are people who see population as being something of a silver 85 00:05:53.900 --> 00:05:54.300 bullet. 86 00:05:54.460 --> 00:06:00.960 That somehow if you increase the population all of a sudden we're going to be more prosperous. 87 00:06:01.100 --> 00:06:03.740 That the economy is going to swing into gear. 88 00:06:03.880 --> 00:06:05.160 That we'll have more social equity. 89 00:06:05.760 --> 00:06:08.720 That things will happen in a more effective way. 90 00:06:09.340 --> 00:06:16.040 So there's almost a diametrically opposed situation with respect particularly I think 91 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:17.200 in a number of ways. 92 00:06:17.200 --> 00:06:18.600 In terms of policy areas. 93 00:06:19.080 --> 00:06:26.640 And what I would argue very, very strongly is that I believe that population can be influenced 94 00:06:26.640 --> 00:06:28.540 and in fact is influenced by policy. 95 00:06:29.620 --> 00:06:38.060 And not only that, population can be helpful in policies which lead to economic prosperity, 96 00:06:38.400 --> 00:06:43.520 which lead to environmental sustainability and which lead to social equity which I see 97 00:06:43.520 --> 00:06:47.180 as being the three main goals which we should strive to achieve. 98 00:06:47.180 --> 00:06:50.740 But population policy is an adjunct. 99 00:06:50.780 --> 00:06:53.280 Population policy can help in those areas. 100 00:06:53.540 --> 00:06:56.020 It's not a substitute for good economic policy. 101 00:06:56.260 --> 00:07:00.800 It's not a substitute for good social policy or good environmental policy. 102 00:07:01.100 --> 00:07:07.080 It's something which we need to get right but in conjunction with those policies rather 103 00:07:07.080 --> 00:07:08.820 than separate from them. 104 00:07:09.640 --> 00:07:13.240 Now let's just look at the situation in South Australia. 105 00:07:13.560 --> 00:07:17.160 This graph actually shows the half of the population. 106 00:07:17.160 --> 00:07:22.160 The hard line shows the annual rate of growth of the State's population over the entire 107 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:23.680 post war period. 108 00:07:24.080 --> 00:07:28.220 And the dotted line is the rate of growth of the Australian population. 109 00:07:29.020 --> 00:07:34.000 And really one of the fundamental things which has affected our population is the fact that 110 00:07:34.000 --> 00:07:39.500 we boomed louder than the long boom in Australia up to about 1971. 111 00:07:40.060 --> 00:07:44.160 You can see up to 1971 our population grew faster than the national population. 112 00:07:44.820 --> 00:07:46.280 Now since the 70's. 113 00:07:46.280 --> 00:07:51.700 the national population has grown slower, but now we're growing slower than the national 114 00:07:51.700 --> 00:07:56.180 population. So you can see that the whole change in Australia has been exaggerated in 115 00:07:56.180 --> 00:08:01.700 South Australia. And one of the results of that is that we're older than the other states 116 00:08:01.700 --> 00:08:07.520 because we had a large number of young adults moving into the population in the 40s, 50s 117 00:08:07.520 --> 00:08:12.520 and 60s. They've stayed and they've aged, but we haven't had the younger people moving 118 00:08:12.520 --> 00:08:18.140 in in the last couple of decades to offset their ageing. So we're more aged than other 119 00:08:18.140 --> 00:08:25.080 states. But we're growing. We're growing at half a percent per annum. And that's not a 120 00:08:25.080 --> 00:08:31.160 half bad rate of growth by OECD standards. In fact, it would be in the top half of OECD 121 00:08:31.160 --> 00:08:37.240 countries in terms of a growth rate. But Australia's growing at 1.2 percent, which, and I think 122 00:08:37.240 --> 00:08:40.580 putting it in context, it's the same as Indonesia's growth rate. 123 00:08:41.360 --> 00:08:41.840 That 124 00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:42.500 Australia's growing at 1.2 percent, which, and I think putting it in context, it's the same as Indonesia's growth rate. That 125 00:08:42.500 --> 00:08:43.160 Australia's growing at 1.2 percent, which, and I think putting it in context, it's the same as Indonesia's growth rate. That 126 00:08:43.160 --> 00:08:46.580 it is not a slow growth rate. In fact, Australia is growing faster than any 127 00:08:46.580 --> 00:08:51.420 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite 128 00:08:51.420 --> 00:08:51.680 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite 129 00:08:51.680 --> 00:08:54.940 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite a rapid growth rate by any standards. 130 00:08:58.000 --> 00:09:00.020 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite a rapid growth rate by any standards. 131 00:09:00.020 --> 00:09:02.160 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite a rapid growth rate by any standards. 132 00:09:02.160 --> 00:09:07.660 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite a rapid growth rate by any standards. 133 00:09:07.860 --> 00:09:09.060 of the other OECD nations of the world. It's quite a rapid growth rate by any standards. 134 00:09:09.060 --> 00:09:15.960 influences the rate at which our population is increasing or decreasing. 135 00:09:16.580 --> 00:09:19.700 But there's another aspect which is important and which I'll talk about, 136 00:09:19.780 --> 00:09:21.640 and that is age structure. 137 00:09:21.920 --> 00:09:27.020 But I just want to deal with each of the basic processes individually. 138 00:09:29.060 --> 00:09:34.980 We talk about natural increase, which is the excess of births over deaths, 139 00:09:35.140 --> 00:09:37.420 and that's shown in the yellow in this diagram. 140 00:09:37.420 --> 00:09:42.260 You can see that we still have a considerable excess of births over deaths, 141 00:09:43.080 --> 00:09:46.400 but probably in about 2025, 2026, 142 00:09:46.700 --> 00:09:51.340 it's likely that in South Australia we will have more deaths than births, 143 00:09:51.340 --> 00:09:53.760 and we'll start to move into a natural decrease situation. 144 00:09:54.880 --> 00:09:58.100 The blue part of the diagram represents migration, 145 00:09:59.180 --> 00:10:02.460 and where it's above the natural increase line, 146 00:10:02.640 --> 00:10:05.940 that means we've had a net gain of migrants, 147 00:10:06.120 --> 00:10:07.400 both from interstate, 148 00:10:07.420 --> 00:10:08.120 and overseas, 149 00:10:08.820 --> 00:10:11.220 and where it's below the line, we've had a net loss. 150 00:10:11.780 --> 00:10:17.120 And you can see the vast difference between the first half of the post-war period, 151 00:10:17.220 --> 00:10:18.640 when we had very big gains, 152 00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:22.320 and subsequently when in some years we've had net losses, 153 00:10:23.100 --> 00:10:27.120 and in other years much smaller gains than we've had previously. 154 00:10:28.320 --> 00:10:30.640 Well, let's deal with those individual processes. 155 00:10:30.980 --> 00:10:32.500 Firstly, what's happening with births? 156 00:10:32.500 --> 00:10:33.420 What's happening with fertility? 157 00:10:34.100 --> 00:10:37.200 The measure which I'm using here is the average number of, 158 00:10:37.420 --> 00:10:39.860 of babies that women are having, 159 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:46.040 and which currently in South Australia I think is in the vicinity of about 1.7, 160 00:10:46.160 --> 00:10:47.360 just above 1.7. 161 00:10:47.580 --> 00:10:54.380 My mum's generation in the 50s and 60s was having 3.4, 3.5, 162 00:10:54.460 --> 00:10:56.940 so it's less than half that average. 163 00:10:57.560 --> 00:11:02.320 This shows the trajectory of the total fertility rate over the last 100 years or so, 164 00:11:02.460 --> 00:11:07.400 and you can see a fairly significant decline from the 1870s, 165 00:11:07.400 --> 00:11:08.720 through to the 1930s. 166 00:11:08.800 --> 00:11:10.800 Then we had the post-war baby boom, 167 00:11:10.900 --> 00:11:14.560 so you can see a big increase in the birth rate. 168 00:11:15.380 --> 00:11:19.240 And then from 1961 onwards, that very precipitous decline, 169 00:11:19.840 --> 00:11:25.560 till about the 70s, and in fact it hasn't declined very much since the mid-1970s. 170 00:11:25.820 --> 00:11:28.420 But the really crucial question is what's going to happen now? 171 00:11:29.480 --> 00:11:34.800 Because in some parts of Europe, in Spain, Italy, in Japan, 172 00:11:36.380 --> 00:11:37.380 the total fertility rate is going to be about 1.7. 173 00:11:37.400 --> 00:11:38.920 The fertility rate is down to 1.1. 174 00:11:39.240 --> 00:11:41.780 Now, if we were to fall to 1.1, 175 00:11:41.860 --> 00:11:45.800 we would be facing some very considerable social and economic challenges 176 00:11:45.800 --> 00:11:50.300 in terms of the balance between our younger and older populations. 177 00:11:50.740 --> 00:11:56.040 And many of us would argue that it's very important for us to have a policy 178 00:11:56.040 --> 00:12:02.820 which attempts to stabilise fertility at these levels rather than for it to reduce. 179 00:12:03.620 --> 00:12:04.800 What about mortality? 180 00:12:05.540 --> 00:12:07.120 Well, this is really... 181 00:12:07.120 --> 00:12:07.380 Well, this is really... 182 00:12:07.380 --> 00:12:10.440 I think one of the real success stories of the post-war period, 183 00:12:10.540 --> 00:12:14.060 and the measure I'm using here is how many years you can expect to live 184 00:12:15.100 --> 00:12:20.340 if mortality patterns stay the same throughout the lifetime of a person. 185 00:12:20.880 --> 00:12:22.940 And this is what it shows over the last 100 years. 186 00:12:23.180 --> 00:12:28.160 The dotted line is for women, and the hard line is for men. 187 00:12:29.120 --> 00:12:33.040 One of the few areas of our society where women have a distinct advantage 188 00:12:33.040 --> 00:12:34.660 is in life expectancy. 189 00:12:36.780 --> 00:12:44.400 Currently, women in Australia live about five years longer than men. 190 00:12:44.900 --> 00:12:54.320 If everything was the same in terms of men and women's lifestyle, work, smoking, drinking, driving, 191 00:12:54.560 --> 00:12:58.220 if everything was exactly the same, women would live an extra two years. 192 00:12:58.760 --> 00:13:02.260 The other five years... 193 00:13:02.260 --> 00:13:04.640 The other years of difference are around... 194 00:13:04.640 --> 00:13:08.500 are a result of differences in lifestyle and exposure to risk. 195 00:13:09.380 --> 00:13:13.960 The figures I've put there for 1947 and 2003... 196 00:13:14.980 --> 00:13:17.280 I guess I put those in there because that's when I was born. 197 00:13:17.560 --> 00:13:23.220 But I think it is interesting to look back over my lifetime, 198 00:13:23.500 --> 00:13:28.820 and in that time we've added 11 years of extra life to the average Australian, 199 00:13:29.060 --> 00:13:33.080 which to me is an incredible achievement over a short period of time. 200 00:13:33.800 --> 00:13:34.620 One of the... 201 00:13:34.640 --> 00:13:41.900 One of the things which has really, I think, not been realised enough in Australian society 202 00:13:41.900 --> 00:13:48.500 is that we've really changed our mortality patterns since the early 1970s. 203 00:13:48.600 --> 00:13:52.980 As you can see in this diagram, between 1901 and 1970, 204 00:13:53.500 --> 00:13:59.120 we added less than an extra two years of life to someone aged... 205 00:13:59.120 --> 00:14:02.220 to a male aged 50 in that period of time. 206 00:14:02.380 --> 00:14:03.580 So if you get to 50, 207 00:14:03.580 --> 00:14:09.840 you only live two years longer than a person would who got to 50 in 1901. 208 00:14:11.460 --> 00:14:15.500 So what was happening is that until the 1970s, 209 00:14:15.500 --> 00:14:19.700 we were improving life expectancy for young people, for children, 210 00:14:19.860 --> 00:14:23.500 for mothers with maternal mortality going down, 211 00:14:23.540 --> 00:14:28.820 but we weren't adding much extra life to people who made it through to older age. 212 00:14:29.040 --> 00:14:30.280 But that's changed. 213 00:14:31.260 --> 00:14:33.460 And you can see there that for men, 214 00:14:33.460 --> 00:14:38.980 we've added seven years of extra life to a person aged over 50 since 1970. 215 00:14:39.560 --> 00:14:44.540 And this is due to innovations such as intensive care, 216 00:14:44.700 --> 00:14:46.580 treatment in heart disease, 217 00:14:46.680 --> 00:14:50.420 better identification of people with heart risk and so on, 218 00:14:50.520 --> 00:14:52.600 plus a bunch of lifestyle things, 219 00:14:52.720 --> 00:14:55.140 less smoking, a whole range of things. 220 00:14:55.260 --> 00:15:00.240 But we've just added an extra seven years of life to the older male. 221 00:15:00.540 --> 00:15:03.100 Now, that wasn't anticipated. 222 00:15:03.100 --> 00:15:05.180 It was anticipated in a lot of our social legislation 223 00:15:05.180 --> 00:15:08.800 which was developed in the 70s, the old age pension and so on. 224 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:13.900 And so it's a really upside in that we have people living longer, 225 00:15:13.980 --> 00:15:21.640 but it means an extended period of reliance on government transfers. 226 00:15:21.840 --> 00:15:25.840 And the other aspect is that, in fact, 227 00:15:25.840 --> 00:15:27.920 these people who otherwise would have died 228 00:15:27.920 --> 00:15:32.680 are not being rescued from death totally healthy. 229 00:15:33.100 --> 00:15:34.760 So the average level of disability, 230 00:15:35.120 --> 00:15:38.520 the average level of sickness in older people is increasing. 231 00:15:39.040 --> 00:15:40.600 It's almost counterintuitive. 232 00:15:40.620 --> 00:15:43.700 You think of people being fitter and healthier and so on, 233 00:15:43.760 --> 00:15:48.040 but our older population is less healthy because less of them are dying. 234 00:15:48.940 --> 00:15:51.300 Now, this is a good story, 235 00:15:51.360 --> 00:15:53.980 but it means that we do have to adapt our systems, 236 00:15:54.140 --> 00:15:57.180 our health systems and so on, to cope with that. 237 00:15:57.700 --> 00:15:58.740 What about migration? 238 00:15:59.200 --> 00:16:00.960 Now, the red here represents... 239 00:16:03.100 --> 00:16:05.780 migration from overseas, net migration from overseas. 240 00:16:06.120 --> 00:16:10.380 Again, you can see the big gains in the period just after World War II, 241 00:16:10.860 --> 00:16:12.260 lesser gains subsequently. 242 00:16:12.920 --> 00:16:15.900 And the blue is net interstate migration. 243 00:16:16.200 --> 00:16:17.600 And you can see in recent times 244 00:16:17.600 --> 00:16:21.240 we have experienced a net loss of people to other states. 245 00:16:21.740 --> 00:16:23.820 Dealing first with overseas migration, 246 00:16:25.760 --> 00:16:29.280 in the last year or so, we've seen a significant increase 247 00:16:29.280 --> 00:16:31.920 after a period of very, very low... 248 00:16:33.100 --> 00:16:36.400 percentage of the total migrant intake to Australia 249 00:16:36.400 --> 00:16:38.060 coming to South Australia. 250 00:16:38.400 --> 00:16:41.720 And that has been partly a function 251 00:16:41.720 --> 00:16:44.740 of the efforts made by the state government 252 00:16:44.740 --> 00:16:47.840 to attract people under some of the new 253 00:16:47.840 --> 00:16:50.820 state-specific and regional migration schemes. 254 00:16:51.300 --> 00:16:53.740 You can see that we get less than our fair share 255 00:16:53.740 --> 00:16:57.380 of people in the family, skilled and business areas, 256 00:16:57.580 --> 00:17:00.680 and we get about our fair share of refugees. 257 00:17:01.200 --> 00:17:01.400 And... 258 00:17:03.100 --> 00:17:06.020 this is where our intake is currently coming from. 259 00:17:06.140 --> 00:17:07.580 This is the last 10 years or so. 260 00:17:08.020 --> 00:17:10.880 Green is the United Kingdom. 261 00:17:11.160 --> 00:17:14.320 You can see that we still have a significant intake from the UK. 262 00:17:15.600 --> 00:17:16.900 Blue is the... 263 00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:19.040 is other Europe. 264 00:17:19.180 --> 00:17:22.020 But I guess the biggest increase has been in the next group, 265 00:17:22.060 --> 00:17:24.600 which is the Asian population 266 00:17:24.600 --> 00:17:28.080 settling in the state. 267 00:17:28.480 --> 00:17:32.240 And the group in white is the Middle East and Africa. 268 00:17:32.240 --> 00:17:35.000 And that has increased particularly in the last... 269 00:17:35.000 --> 00:17:36.600 last couple of years. 270 00:17:36.980 --> 00:17:40.420 So these are the people who've arrived permanently in the state. 271 00:17:41.060 --> 00:17:42.280 This is another group. 272 00:17:42.920 --> 00:17:46.180 This is a group of people who come on a long-term basis 273 00:17:46.180 --> 00:17:46.820 to... 274 00:17:47.560 --> 00:17:48.780 to South Australia. 275 00:17:49.300 --> 00:17:51.500 People who, when they come into the country, 276 00:17:51.580 --> 00:17:54.060 put on the form that they're going to stay more than 12 months, 277 00:17:54.240 --> 00:17:56.620 but they have intentions of... 278 00:17:56.620 --> 00:17:58.360 of subsequently leaving. 279 00:17:58.860 --> 00:18:00.600 And you can see there the grey group. 280 00:18:00.680 --> 00:18:01.360 This is Asian. 281 00:18:01.360 --> 00:18:05.000 And this represents very much the Asian students 282 00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:06.580 which are being attracted to the state 283 00:18:06.580 --> 00:18:11.240 as long-term arrivals. 284 00:18:11.820 --> 00:18:16.780 And I think too often we focus on the permanent arrivals, 285 00:18:16.800 --> 00:18:19.200 the people who come and say they're going to be staying permanently, 286 00:18:19.380 --> 00:18:22.540 when in fact the long-term arrivals have been significant. 287 00:18:23.280 --> 00:18:25.920 What this shows is the number of people 288 00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:27.200 in different birthplace groups 289 00:18:28.060 --> 00:18:30.880 from 1947 to the present. 290 00:18:30.900 --> 00:18:31.340 And... 291 00:18:31.360 --> 00:18:33.320 and you can see how much our migration 292 00:18:33.320 --> 00:18:34.880 has been dominated by Europe. 293 00:18:35.500 --> 00:18:36.140 The... 294 00:18:37.360 --> 00:18:39.560 the lower group are the UK-born, 295 00:18:39.720 --> 00:18:43.200 and the other blue is other Europe. 296 00:18:43.440 --> 00:18:44.720 And you can see still 297 00:18:45.360 --> 00:18:47.460 our population is very much dominated 298 00:18:47.460 --> 00:18:49.440 by migrants from Europe. 299 00:18:49.760 --> 00:18:52.180 And that's because we haven't had 300 00:18:52.180 --> 00:18:55.200 very large migrations in the last 20 years or so 301 00:18:55.200 --> 00:18:58.640 when the Asian and other groups 302 00:18:58.640 --> 00:19:00.020 have become more significant 303 00:19:00.020 --> 00:19:02.360 in Australian migration. 304 00:19:02.740 --> 00:19:04.980 Nevertheless, you can see that the orange group, 305 00:19:05.060 --> 00:19:08.100 the Asian group, has increased. 306 00:19:08.800 --> 00:19:11.440 These are the main birthplace groups. 307 00:19:11.700 --> 00:19:14.040 We're still a very multicultural society, 308 00:19:14.360 --> 00:19:18.020 but the proportion of our society born overseas 309 00:19:18.540 --> 00:19:19.720 has started to decline 310 00:19:19.720 --> 00:19:23.060 after a long period of it increasing. 311 00:19:23.280 --> 00:19:26.360 So we now have just below the national average 312 00:19:26.360 --> 00:19:28.080 of our proportion born... 313 00:19:28.080 --> 00:19:29.640 of our population born overseas. 314 00:19:29.640 --> 00:19:33.240 It's about 21% of the population being born overseas. 315 00:19:34.980 --> 00:19:36.400 Australia's migration, though, 316 00:19:36.400 --> 00:19:38.720 I believe has entered a totally new era 317 00:19:38.720 --> 00:19:40.060 in the last 10 years. 318 00:19:40.260 --> 00:19:42.040 And it's an era which I don't think 319 00:19:42.040 --> 00:19:44.820 has engaged the public in as much discussion 320 00:19:44.820 --> 00:19:45.960 as it should have. 321 00:19:47.040 --> 00:19:48.020 First of all, 322 00:19:48.640 --> 00:19:50.360 until the mid-'90s, Australia 323 00:19:50.360 --> 00:19:53.680 totally eschewed a policy 324 00:19:53.680 --> 00:19:55.220 of temporary labour migration. 325 00:19:55.540 --> 00:19:57.960 We had a migration program 326 00:19:57.960 --> 00:19:59.620 whereby people were... 327 00:19:59.620 --> 00:20:01.720 encouraged to come to Australia and settle. 328 00:20:02.620 --> 00:20:06.260 And we really didn't enter into temporary labour migration 329 00:20:06.260 --> 00:20:07.200 to any extent. 330 00:20:07.520 --> 00:20:08.840 That's been transformed. 331 00:20:09.180 --> 00:20:11.540 Each year, more than 300,000 people 332 00:20:11.540 --> 00:20:14.200 with the right to work temporarily come to Australia, 333 00:20:14.280 --> 00:20:18.260 as opposed to about 100,000 permanent migrants. 334 00:20:18.560 --> 00:20:22.900 So our migration program has changed enormously 335 00:20:22.900 --> 00:20:25.660 to encompass temporary migration. 336 00:20:26.140 --> 00:20:28.020 The migration program, too, 337 00:20:28.020 --> 00:20:30.140 has become more focused on skill. 338 00:20:30.920 --> 00:20:33.800 Family migration has become less. 339 00:20:34.020 --> 00:20:35.260 It has become more restricted 340 00:20:35.260 --> 00:20:37.720 in terms of the family members 341 00:20:37.720 --> 00:20:39.620 who can join migrants. 342 00:20:40.160 --> 00:20:44.200 So we've had a very strong focus on skill. 343 00:20:44.880 --> 00:20:47.060 There's been increased migration of Australians 344 00:20:47.760 --> 00:20:49.140 to other countries. 345 00:20:49.460 --> 00:20:51.500 Currently, we estimate 346 00:20:51.500 --> 00:20:53.260 about a million Australians 347 00:20:53.260 --> 00:20:55.880 live in foreign countries, 348 00:20:56.060 --> 00:20:58.000 and of those, probably about 100 million 349 00:20:58.020 --> 00:20:59.480 are South Australians. 350 00:20:59.760 --> 00:21:03.140 So we have an expatriate diaspora, 351 00:21:03.140 --> 00:21:03.640 if you like, 352 00:21:03.760 --> 00:21:06.740 of about 100,000 South Australians 353 00:21:06.740 --> 00:21:09.140 living overseas. 354 00:21:09.600 --> 00:21:11.760 And this has increased 355 00:21:11.760 --> 00:21:14.340 and keeps increasing quite rapidly 356 00:21:15.020 --> 00:21:17.780 over the last couple of years. 357 00:21:18.060 --> 00:21:19.120 The final element 358 00:21:19.120 --> 00:21:21.260 is the state-specific migration schemes. 359 00:21:21.660 --> 00:21:23.100 For the first time, 360 00:21:23.100 --> 00:21:26.220 Australia has got parts of its migration program 361 00:21:26.220 --> 00:21:28.000 which are only eligible 362 00:21:28.020 --> 00:21:29.880 for people who indicate 363 00:21:29.880 --> 00:21:30.980 that they will settle 364 00:21:30.980 --> 00:21:32.980 in a particular part of the country. 365 00:21:33.320 --> 00:21:37.140 And many of those involve people 366 00:21:37.140 --> 00:21:38.960 being eligible to come to South Australia. 367 00:21:40.840 --> 00:21:43.560 We haven't really, I think, 368 00:21:43.560 --> 00:21:45.160 engaged with the temporary migration 369 00:21:45.160 --> 00:21:46.820 part of the migration program. 370 00:21:47.600 --> 00:21:49.500 You can see here in this diagram 371 00:21:49.500 --> 00:21:52.740 that South Australia got about 3.8% 372 00:21:52.740 --> 00:21:55.020 of permanent skilled migrants 373 00:21:55.760 --> 00:21:57.060 in 1999 to 2000. 374 00:21:57.060 --> 00:22:01.320 But only 2.5% of the temporary migrants. 375 00:22:01.500 --> 00:22:02.940 And I would argue 376 00:22:02.940 --> 00:22:06.820 that part of our efforts in migration 377 00:22:06.820 --> 00:22:08.220 should be very much focused 378 00:22:08.220 --> 00:22:11.340 on non-permanent temporary migrants. 379 00:22:12.600 --> 00:22:14.540 And we've been very successful 380 00:22:14.540 --> 00:22:15.340 in recent times 381 00:22:15.340 --> 00:22:16.940 in increasing the proportion of students 382 00:22:16.940 --> 00:22:19.100 coming to South Australia, 383 00:22:19.220 --> 00:22:20.680 as you can see here. 384 00:22:21.460 --> 00:22:24.240 There also are now programs 385 00:22:24.240 --> 00:22:26.060 whereby students, 386 00:22:26.060 --> 00:22:28.720 students who wish to stay in Australia, 387 00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:31.440 if they come to a regional area, 388 00:22:32.040 --> 00:22:33.800 are given a special compensation 389 00:22:33.800 --> 00:22:36.400 in terms of points in the points assessment 390 00:22:37.060 --> 00:22:39.360 to gain permanent residence 391 00:22:39.360 --> 00:22:41.840 once they finish their degrees. 392 00:22:42.980 --> 00:22:44.820 So we've got a whole range of 393 00:22:45.840 --> 00:22:48.340 state-specific and regional migration schemes 394 00:22:48.340 --> 00:22:50.860 which the state is participating in 395 00:22:50.860 --> 00:22:52.880 and participating in very successfully. 396 00:22:53.300 --> 00:22:54.740 And we have a pipeline 397 00:22:54.740 --> 00:22:56.460 of several thousand people 398 00:22:56.460 --> 00:22:57.800 waiting to come to the state 399 00:22:57.800 --> 00:22:58.960 under these schemes. 400 00:23:00.240 --> 00:23:02.260 However, I believe quite strongly 401 00:23:02.260 --> 00:23:04.580