WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.640 Welcome to this session of the Festival of Ideas, where Margot Kingston's going to talk. 2 00:00:04.700 --> 00:00:08.840 My name's Robert Fideon. I teach English at Flinders and am on the Advisory Committee. 3 00:00:10.000 --> 00:00:13.340 And just very quickly, housekeeping things initially. 4 00:00:14.100 --> 00:00:16.720 Margot's going to talk at the lectern for about 30 minutes, 5 00:00:16.920 --> 00:00:22.180 and then we're going to have time for discussion, question and answer for about half an hour. 6 00:00:22.240 --> 00:00:27.560 We do have to finish on time, so in the likely event that the discussion will really be rolling at one o'clock, 7 00:00:27.620 --> 00:00:29.000 I'm still going to stop you. 8 00:00:31.740 --> 00:00:37.960 And when it comes to the discussion, we'll have a microphone, yes, my beautiful assistant, 9 00:00:40.180 --> 00:00:43.740 that you'll need to speak to so that everybody else can hear. 10 00:00:44.060 --> 00:00:47.740 It's nearly big enough, this room is nearly small enough to just talk in, 11 00:00:47.800 --> 00:00:53.840 but it's much better if we use a microphone, and people will have to hand it up to people in their seats. 12 00:00:56.400 --> 00:00:57.620 So, Margot Kingston. 13 00:00:57.840 --> 00:00:59.980 I'm quietly confident that she knows... 14 00:01:00.000 --> 00:01:01.320 She needs no introduction in this audience. 15 00:01:04.560 --> 00:01:08.300 She's a journalist with the Sydney Morning Herald, 16 00:01:08.340 --> 00:01:10.200 and particularly runs their web diary, 17 00:01:10.420 --> 00:01:14.740 is interested in new media and what they can do to multiply voices 18 00:01:14.740 --> 00:01:16.860 rather than reduce the number of voices. 19 00:01:18.480 --> 00:01:23.900 Big business seems to treat new media as a way of concentrating our information, 20 00:01:24.260 --> 00:01:29.300 and Margot is trying desperately and willingly 21 00:01:29.300 --> 00:01:29.980 to do that. 22 00:01:31.560 --> 00:01:33.660 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 23 00:01:33.660 --> 00:01:38.220 about her response to that response. 24 00:01:38.220 --> 00:01:38.680 about her response to that response. 25 00:01:39.560 --> 00:01:41.080 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 26 00:01:41.080 --> 00:01:41.680 about her response to that response. 27 00:01:43.960 --> 00:01:46.160 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 28 00:01:46.160 --> 00:01:46.360 about her response to that response. 29 00:01:46.360 --> 00:01:47.380 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 30 00:01:47.380 --> 00:01:47.580 about her response to that response. 31 00:01:47.580 --> 00:01:48.160 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 32 00:01:48.160 --> 00:01:48.840 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 33 00:01:48.840 --> 00:01:48.920 about her response to that response. 34 00:01:48.920 --> 00:01:50.020 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 35 00:01:50.020 --> 00:01:50.520 about her response to that response. 36 00:01:50.800 --> 00:01:53.060 And we are now going to spend a little bit of time wondering 37 00:01:53.060 --> 00:01:54.820 about her response to that response. 38 00:02:03.380 --> 00:02:04.140 G'day 39 00:02:04.140 --> 00:02:11.340 The title of my talk is Redrawing Maps of Home 40 00:02:11.340 --> 00:02:15.680 and that phrase is from a web diarist called Christine Evans 41 00:02:15.680 --> 00:02:17.920 who's an Australian living in Canada 42 00:02:17.920 --> 00:02:22.620 and she responded to a question I asked on Web Diary 43 00:02:22.620 --> 00:02:25.160 after the 2001 election which is 44 00:02:25.160 --> 00:02:26.440 What will you do? 45 00:02:27.900 --> 00:02:29.920 And she wrote this 46 00:02:31.040 --> 00:02:35.380 Edward Bond, a playwright, says that the child maps the world 47 00:02:35.380 --> 00:02:38.000 in a process which also creates the child 48 00:02:38.000 --> 00:02:40.380 The map and the mapmaker are one 49 00:02:40.380 --> 00:02:44.740 He writes, if the map is torn, the mapmaker is torn 50 00:02:45.940 --> 00:02:48.260 My map of Australia has just been torn 51 00:02:48.260 --> 00:02:51.660 but are long folds that have been worn thin for a long time 52 00:02:54.080 --> 00:02:55.440 Since 2001 53 00:02:56.420 --> 00:03:01.820 I've been a political writer and journalist for 15 years now 54 00:03:01.820 --> 00:03:06.280 and I keep getting shocked at things that are happening 55 00:03:06.840 --> 00:03:10.220 And it's been happening for so long that I'm not shocked that I'm shocked anymore 56 00:03:11.860 --> 00:03:12.880 Something's happening 57 00:03:12.880 --> 00:03:16.600 Something's breaking down from what used to be a consensus 58 00:03:16.600 --> 00:03:18.720 In Web Diary 59 00:03:19.400 --> 00:03:20.820 Australian's all over the country 60 00:03:20.820 --> 00:03:27.140 country, city and country, and Australians abroad, all the continents. We've been sort 61 00:03:27.140 --> 00:03:34.740 of talking about it and trying to work out what's happening, why our society is being 62 00:03:34.740 --> 00:03:42.200 dismantled and our values are being trashed even when we haven't been asked. And this 63 00:03:42.200 --> 00:03:52.420 speech is what I've worked out. And it's in two parts. The first part is the fear and 64 00:03:52.420 --> 00:04:01.640 the second part is the hope. Imagine you are John Howard sitting at your political chessboard. 65 00:04:02.460 --> 00:04:07.620 Your dominance is almost complete. Your back benches don't speak out on anything anymore. 66 00:04:07.880 --> 00:04:12.180 Your popularity and political control is such that dissenters feel they have no control 67 00:04:12.180 --> 00:04:16.720 and no choice but to fall in behind you and enjoy the spoils. Your opposition is punch 68 00:04:16.720 --> 00:04:22.900 drunk. It is divided over what to do, where to go and how to play to match you. The media 69 00:04:22.900 --> 00:04:28.360 is largely compliant. Being so popular and now in your third term, no one is going to 70 00:04:28.360 --> 00:04:34.600 take you on or push you to answer questions. You get away with dissembling even lies. Your 71 00:04:34.600 --> 00:04:39.180 hand-picked elite has now fully replaced that of the other lot and the losers are dispirited 72 00:04:39.180 --> 00:04:42.160 and exhausted from constantly fighting to save some of what they have lost. 73 00:04:44.060 --> 00:04:48.320 Most Australians seem to trust that whatever you do it will be okay and they don't need 74 00:04:48.320 --> 00:04:55.440 to know much about why. What next? I got an inkling of what might be next in Canberra 75 00:04:55.440 --> 00:05:00.480 in the last sitting week before the winter break. Wave after wave of new policy spat 76 00:05:00.480 --> 00:05:06.040 forth. Intervention in the Solomons, selling Telstra, getting ASIO through, pushing for 77 00:05:06.040 --> 00:05:10.580 cross-media abolition, passing another detention law through the lower house which would keep 78 00:05:10.580 --> 00:05:12.140 some people in detention forever. I've been in the same situation for a long time. I've 79 00:05:12.980 --> 00:05:13.500 been in the same situation for a long time. I've been in the same situation for a long 80 00:05:13.500 --> 00:05:18.440 Labor people tended to get drunk early and party frenetically all night. I even saw tears 81 00:05:18.440 --> 00:05:22.820 in the eyes of one of them. They have no time to get their balance, or to regroup, 82 00:05:22.920 --> 00:05:26.660 or to plan strategy. John Howard is rolling all over them. 83 00:05:28.380 --> 00:05:33.980 When Howard decided to stay on June 3, many people thought he'd missed his Menzies moment, 84 00:05:34.200 --> 00:05:38.960 that magic phenomenon of leaving while you're on top, handing your organisation to the next 85 00:05:38.960 --> 00:05:42.140 generation in good shape, untouched by leadership. The 86 00:05:42.160 --> 00:05:47.160 blood. Peter Costello certainly thought so and told Howard to his face when 87 00:05:47.160 --> 00:05:51.000 Howard deigned to kill his hopes the day before the announcement. It can't get 88 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:54.920 better for you than this, Costello told him. You've won the war without a 89 00:05:54.920 --> 00:05:58.940 casualty, you're loved by the people, your luck will run out, people will tire of 90 00:05:58.940 --> 00:06:05.200 you. Now is the time to hand me the prize. But Howard is no Hawke, the old bloke 91 00:06:05.200 --> 00:06:09.820 addicted to the glamour but with nothing much more to contribute. Hawke got to the 92 00:06:09.820 --> 00:06:14.980 top the easy way. Howard did it very hard and got very bruised and battered 93 00:06:14.980 --> 00:06:20.580 along the way. In a position as good as his he wants more. Howard has a big 94 00:06:20.580 --> 00:06:26.420 agenda, a very big one. Howard wants to go out on a high all right but he wants 95 00:06:26.420 --> 00:06:30.140 the high to be higher than the one he's already on. He wants to transform 96 00:06:30.140 --> 00:06:34.300 Australia so completely that the old Australia can never be revived. His 97 00:06:34.300 --> 00:06:37.960 vision is so radical that only a man in complete charge of the political agenda 98 00:06:37.960 --> 00:06:39.180 could even dream of it. 99 00:06:39.360 --> 00:06:39.800 you 100 00:06:39.820 --> 00:06:39.840 ! 101 00:06:39.840 --> 00:06:46.020 And the cross media legislation is central to his plans. Just days after he announced 102 00:06:46.020 --> 00:06:50.680 he'd stay leader for as long as the party wanted him, Howard dropped a bombshell. He 103 00:06:50.680 --> 00:06:55.480 wanted a referendum to strip the Senate of its power to reject legislation. It had to 104 00:06:55.480 --> 00:07:01.180 be a joke, surely. Labor, the party of reform, had always wanted just such a thing. It was 105 00:07:01.180 --> 00:07:06.880 conservatives, protectors of the status quo, who wanted the Senate. Now the roles are reversed. 106 00:07:07.460 --> 00:07:08.540 Howard is the radical. 107 00:07:08.540 --> 00:07:14.820 Labor are the conservatives. It is conventional wisdom that such a referendum would never 108 00:07:14.820 --> 00:07:19.160 succeed. You only have to look at the nightmare legislation Howard has tried to get through 109 00:07:19.160 --> 00:07:24.920 this term, including defining political protests as terrorist acts and imposing a virtual police 110 00:07:24.920 --> 00:07:29.760 state with his original ASIO laws to know that the Senate has acted as a bulwark of 111 00:07:29.760 --> 00:07:34.620 our human and civil rights. It is a place for genuine debate on the merits and real 112 00:07:34.620 --> 00:07:38.520 community input because the government does not have the numbers to force everything through. 113 00:07:38.520 --> 00:07:45.560 Howard, leading a party traditionally suspicious of Big Brother government has become the 114 00:07:45.560 --> 00:07:50.340 champion of it. It is now Labor — not the liberals — who champion privacy laws. It 115 00:07:50.340 --> 00:07:53.560 is now Labor — which defends civil rights — since Howard and his 116 00:07:53.560 --> 00:07:58.380 followers successfully swept small-l liberalism from the federal party over the last two decades. 117 00:07:59.260 --> 00:08:03.640 It's worth noting that the big media has — almost without exception — embraced 118 00:08:03.640 --> 00:08:08.040 Howard's idea — arguing that — in a fast-moving world of global economics — a 119 00:08:08.040 --> 00:08:09.260 a government must move swiftly. 120 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:13.480 In other words, democracy must be subservient to economic growth 121 00:08:13.480 --> 00:08:16.700 and unchecked government power is good for us. 122 00:08:17.760 --> 00:08:19.980 Howard will decide later whether to put the proposal 123 00:08:19.980 --> 00:08:21.620 to a referendum at the next election. 124 00:08:22.140 --> 00:08:23.800 It's a card in his hand, 125 00:08:23.940 --> 00:08:26.920 one of many he's playing to put almost intolerable pressure 126 00:08:26.920 --> 00:08:28.180 on vulnerable senators. 127 00:08:29.080 --> 00:08:32.080 The next card is the escalating threat of a double dissolution. 128 00:08:32.640 --> 00:08:35.460 In a DD, the Democrats would be all but wiped out. 129 00:08:35.980 --> 00:08:39.080 As it is, Andrew Murray, Natasha, Lynette Allison 130 00:08:39.080 --> 00:08:41.460 and Andrew Bartlett are in for another five years, 131 00:08:41.700 --> 00:08:44.020 while only John Cherry and Aidan Ridgeway would be 132 00:08:44.020 --> 00:08:46.940 up for reelection, along with ex-Democrat Meg Lees. 133 00:08:47.160 --> 00:08:50.980 So you can see why the party is in crisis and very vulnerable. 134 00:08:52.440 --> 00:08:54.340 The Democrats are in a no man's land. 135 00:08:54.720 --> 00:08:57.040 At a time when values are imperative, they drift 136 00:08:57.040 --> 00:08:59.720 between the Greens on the left and the centrist Labor Party 137 00:08:59.720 --> 00:09:03.120 with no articulated difference from either except 138 00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:04.900 that they're prepared to do deals sometimes. 139 00:09:06.500 --> 00:09:08.120 How can the Democrats hang on? 140 00:09:08.260 --> 00:09:11.180 I think Howard means to split them off as soon as possible, 141 00:09:11.380 --> 00:09:14.580 setting up a group of three, Lees, Murray and Ridgeway, 142 00:09:14.760 --> 00:09:17.280 which will be amenable to deals on his legislative agenda. 143 00:09:17.920 --> 00:09:20.640 With them on board, he'd need only one of Shane Murphy, 144 00:09:20.840 --> 00:09:22.800 Brian Harradine and Len Harris to win through, 145 00:09:22.980 --> 00:09:24.760 and that sounds pretty easy to me. 146 00:09:26.080 --> 00:09:29.000 But would he really go to a DD if the Senate stood firm? 147 00:09:29.640 --> 00:09:31.820 It doesn't make sense to on the numbers. 148 00:09:32.620 --> 00:09:35.180 Politicalical analyst Malcolm McEris wrote recently, 149 00:09:35.460 --> 00:09:38.000 in the Financial Review, that the coalition, 150 00:09:38.300 --> 00:09:43.500 with a Senate vote of about 42%, would get 33 of the 76 seats in a DD. 151 00:09:43.960 --> 00:09:47.180 But it could conceivably win half the seats up for grabs 152 00:09:47.180 --> 00:09:48.520 at a normal half-Senate election, 153 00:09:48.860 --> 00:09:52.440 which would give the Liberals half of the 76 Senate seats. 154 00:09:52.960 --> 00:09:56.920 He'd then need only one Senator to get his agenda through. 155 00:09:57.440 --> 00:09:59.680 This is how close we are. 156 00:10:00.620 --> 00:10:02.180 And what is his agenda? 157 00:10:02.740 --> 00:10:05.300 In my view, he wants to smash the social contract 158 00:10:05.460 --> 00:10:05.820 in Australia. 159 00:10:06.160 --> 00:10:09.080 He wants to establish Australia as a US-style democracy 160 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:11.840 where people fend for themselves and save for their needs, 161 00:10:11.980 --> 00:10:13.200 including health and education. 162 00:10:13.720 --> 00:10:16.840 He also wants the US model of a corporate estate run 163 00:10:16.840 --> 00:10:18.740 by government in partnership with big business, 164 00:10:18.960 --> 00:10:21.880 where politicians and business people swap roles routinely 165 00:10:21.880 --> 00:10:24.720 and big business finances his party. 166 00:10:25.620 --> 00:10:27.040 And he wants Australia to divorce itself 167 00:10:27.040 --> 00:10:29.340 from the multilateral system of international relations 168 00:10:29.340 --> 00:10:31.700 and become part of the American world. 169 00:10:33.220 --> 00:10:34.700 But Australia would be a different place 170 00:10:34.700 --> 00:10:35.440 from America. 171 00:10:35.680 --> 00:10:37.700 We do not have a Bill of Rights, 172 00:10:37.920 --> 00:10:40.000 which in the United States keeps the government 173 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:41.120 and its powers in check. 174 00:10:41.700 --> 00:10:44.120 Howard would be much freer than the American president 175 00:10:44.120 --> 00:10:45.880 to trample our human and civil rights. 176 00:10:46.220 --> 00:10:49.540 He's already walked away from our multilateral human rights obligations 177 00:10:50.260 --> 00:10:53.080 and stacked the High Court with judges antagonistic 178 00:10:53.080 --> 00:10:56.280 to implying civil rights in our constitution. 179 00:10:57.640 --> 00:11:00.020 What he also has that President Bush doesn't 180 00:11:00.020 --> 00:11:01.320 is a concentrated media, 181 00:11:01.540 --> 00:11:03.680 the most concentrated in the Western world. 182 00:11:04.700 --> 00:11:06.940 If he gets his cross-media bill through in three months, 183 00:11:07.140 --> 00:11:10.180 as planned, Australia's media will be under the effective control 184 00:11:10.180 --> 00:11:12.920 of Rupert Murdoch, who will own most of our newspapers, 185 00:11:13.340 --> 00:11:15.300 a TV network, our pay TV network, 186 00:11:15.820 --> 00:11:18.360 and in cities where he cannot own both a newspaper 187 00:11:18.360 --> 00:11:21.080 and a TV station due to his already great share 188 00:11:21.080 --> 00:11:25.580 of the advertising market, the key news talk radio station. 189 00:11:25.980 --> 00:11:28.840 Kerry Packer could take Fairfax and keep the Nine network, 190 00:11:29.160 --> 00:11:32.720 his stake in Foxtel and his large stable of magazines, 191 00:11:32.920 --> 00:11:34.680 and very significantly, the New York Times. 192 00:11:34.700 --> 00:11:34.880 He could also take the New York Times, 193 00:11:34.880 --> 00:11:36.340 and very significantly, Australia's only business daily, 194 00:11:36.420 --> 00:11:37.260 The Financial Review. 195 00:11:37.900 --> 00:11:40.860 Just an example of what this means, to your right to know. 196 00:11:41.460 --> 00:11:44.780 Both men already effectively controlled three of our major sports, 197 00:11:45.380 --> 00:11:46.940 AFL, rugby league, and cricket, 198 00:11:47.100 --> 00:11:49.700 and would now control the reporting of those sports, 199 00:11:49.880 --> 00:11:53.000 including news coverage only in their commercial interest. 200 00:11:55.100 --> 00:11:58.960 No more reporting of Mark Warren, Shane War and bribery. 201 00:12:00.540 --> 00:12:03.240 Thus, two immensely wealthy, powerful businessmen 202 00:12:03.240 --> 00:12:04.300 would set the news agenda 203 00:12:04.300 --> 00:12:07.340 in this country and control much of Australia's mass entertainment. 204 00:12:08.300 --> 00:12:10.100 Unlike the United States president, 205 00:12:10.260 --> 00:12:12.540 who faces a vast and diverse independent media, 206 00:12:12.860 --> 00:12:14.400 Howard could, in large measure, 207 00:12:14.580 --> 00:12:16.900 rule effectively free from media scrutiny 208 00:12:16.900 --> 00:12:19.060 or dissenting analysis on crucial issues. 209 00:12:19.640 --> 00:12:22.500 The big two and Howard want Australia run by big business 210 00:12:22.500 --> 00:12:24.120 to compete in a globalised world, 211 00:12:24.300 --> 00:12:26.600 with favoured treatment for them, of course, 212 00:12:26.660 --> 00:12:29.460 and of course, completely unreported, 213 00:12:29.460 --> 00:12:30.560 because they own the media. 214 00:12:31.480 --> 00:12:34.280 Murdoch, reaching a position of immense media power, 215 00:12:34.300 --> 00:12:37.380 even in the US, wants a free trade agreement with the US 216 00:12:37.380 --> 00:12:40.800 to enmesh the two countries militarily and economically. 217 00:12:41.920 --> 00:12:44.820 Fairfax, the only remaining sceptical commercial media voice, 218 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:47.880 one without commercial conflicts of interest, would be gone. 219 00:12:48.280 --> 00:12:51.580 The ABC, bruised and battered by concerted government attack, 220 00:12:51.780 --> 00:12:53.740 enthusiastically backed by the Murdoch press, 221 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:55.420 would be cowed into acquiescence. 222 00:12:55.780 --> 00:12:58.700 It is no accident that the Australian recently called 223 00:12:58.700 --> 00:13:00.120 for the abolition of Radio National, 224 00:13:00.300 --> 00:13:04.280 the only mainstream avenue for big ideas and intelligent dissent in Australia. 225 00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:07.560 These ambitions would be controversial, 226 00:13:07.920 --> 00:13:09.280 perhaps too controversial, 227 00:13:09.520 --> 00:13:11.440 if we had a free independent media 228 00:13:11.980 --> 00:13:13.760 and if voices of dissent could be heard. 229 00:13:14.140 --> 00:13:17.380 In Howard's ideal world, they would be heard hardly at all. 230 00:13:17.620 --> 00:13:20.280 It would be government by big business for big business, 231 00:13:20.420 --> 00:13:23.140 with a powerful state apparatus to watch the public 232 00:13:23.140 --> 00:13:24.920 and crush radical dissent. 233 00:13:25.540 --> 00:13:28.320 I wouldn't put it past Howard to achieve these goals. 234 00:13:28.780 --> 00:13:31.680 When Labor reigned supreme after many years of power, 235 00:13:31.780 --> 00:13:33.460 with its elites firmly in place, 236 00:13:33.460 --> 00:13:34.660 it ran out of puff. 237 00:13:35.060 --> 00:13:35.620 Why? 238 00:13:36.000 --> 00:13:39.460 Because it disconnected from the needs and aspirations of the Australian people 239 00:13:39.460 --> 00:13:41.720 and became arrogant and complacent. 240 00:13:41.880 --> 00:13:44.460 Howard will not make the same mistake. 241 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:47.580 As he screws the battlers economically, 242 00:13:47.920 --> 00:13:51.480 he caters to their nationalistic desires for an Australia safe from boat people 243 00:13:51.480 --> 00:13:53.100 and other undesirable immigrants. 244 00:13:53.420 --> 00:13:56.120 He gets them on stride at nationalism in this way, 245 00:13:56.240 --> 00:13:59.920 while making us a client state to the US in other, much more important ways. 246 00:14:00.420 --> 00:14:03.440 He runs a strong anti-drugs line and socially conservative, 247 00:14:03.460 --> 00:14:04.460 and he's a leader in the conservative social policy 248 00:14:04.460 --> 00:14:08.200 to ease people's fears of a society too complex to comprehend. 249 00:14:10.160 --> 00:14:13.200 Howard's new media elite is also different from Keating's. 250 00:14:13.340 --> 00:14:18.760 For all its faults, the Keating media elite remain critical of Labor, 251 00:14:19.020 --> 00:14:22.040 its double standards and its various betrayals of principle. 252 00:14:22.300 --> 00:14:23.720 It kept Labor accountable. 253 00:14:24.220 --> 00:14:30.060 In contrast, most of Howard's most powerful media elite act as unabashed propagandists. 254 00:14:30.720 --> 00:14:32.560 So Howard has all the cards. 255 00:14:33.460 --> 00:14:36.660 The Democrats are fighting for their survival and Labor is a headless chook. 256 00:14:36.940 --> 00:14:40.480 He can now sit back and decide, when the time is right, 257 00:14:40.660 --> 00:14:44.860 which of his many roads to Australia's transformation and his absolute power, 258 00:14:44.980 --> 00:14:48.540 in partnership with big business, is most likely to succeed. 259 00:14:49.460 --> 00:14:50.580 So that's the fear. 260 00:14:51.840 --> 00:14:53.040 The Hon. 261 00:14:53.040 --> 00:14:53.240 Mr. 262 00:15:03.540 --> 00:15:07.400 Here's my response to my comment. 263 00:15:07.400 --> 00:15:08.020 Here's my response to my comment. 264 00:15:08.040 --> 00:15:09.140 Here's my response to my comment. 265 00:15:11.860 --> 00:15:12.740 Here's my response to my comment. 266 00:15:12.740 --> 00:15:13.620 Here's my response to my comment. 267 00:15:13.620 --> 00:15:14.720 Here's my response to my comment. 268 00:15:15.400 --> 00:15:17.160 Here's my response to my comment. 269 00:15:17.160 --> 00:15:18.380 Here's my response to my comment. 270 00:15:18.380 --> 00:15:19.800 Here's my response to my comment. 271 00:15:20.080 --> 00:15:21.200 Here's my response to my comment. 272 00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:21.680 Here's my response to my comment. 273 00:15:21.840 --> 00:15:22.900 Here's my response to my comment. 274 00:15:23.420 --> 00:15:23.820 Here's my response to my comment. 275 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:25.720 Here's my response to my comment. 276 00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:30.760 Here's my response to my comment. 277 00:15:30.760 --> 00:15:34.700 the public service and much of the mass media, and in suppressing dissent by 278 00:15:34.700 --> 00:15:38.860 defunding public interest groups, stifling free speech in universities and 279 00:15:38.860 --> 00:15:46.480 terrorising the ABC, makes his neoliberal, neoconservative dream plausible. When I 280 00:15:46.480 --> 00:15:53.060 wrote it, put up a variation of this diatribe, I suppose you could call it, on 281 00:15:53.060 --> 00:16:00.340 Web Diary, a guy wrote in for the first time, brilliant piece, his name's Charlie 282 00:16:00.340 --> 00:16:05.900 Armstrong, and this is how he put it, now that the West's cult of the individual 283 00:16:05.900 --> 00:16:10.860 is so entrenched, it's easier to move from capitalism to authoritarianism as 284 00:16:10.860 --> 00:16:15.300 there are no idealistic hurdles. I now realise how difficult it is to write 285 00:16:15.300 --> 00:16:20.740 about politics without using terms that can sound alarmist and paranoid, but just 286 00:16:20.740 --> 00:16:24.860 like justice, there is a soft edge between what is acceptable and what is 287 00:16:24.860 --> 00:16:29.680 not. As a result, authoritarianism doesn't necessarily mean baton-wielding brown 288 00:16:29.680 --> 00:16:30.060 shirts. 289 00:16:30.340 --> 00:16:34.600 It's just a degree of non-representation that is unacceptable in a democracy. 290 00:16:36.760 --> 00:16:48.080 Okay, there are several fault lines that I can think of in Howard's Roads to 291 00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:53.820 Absolute Power, apart from the unpredictable outcomes in Iraq and the 292 00:16:53.820 --> 00:16:59.880 possibility of a world recession. They are a backlash from traditional liberal 293 00:17:00.340 --> 00:17:00.540 leaders. 294 00:17:00.580 --> 00:17:00.840 Please. 295 00:17:09.760 --> 00:17:19.360 The politics of Telstra, the risks of Howard's idea to gut the Senate blowing up in his face, 296 00:17:20.340 --> 00:17:24.940 and the chance that non-coalition parties, independents and our public interest groups 297 00:17:25.580 --> 00:17:30.320 will band together to defend Australian values and Australian democracy against the 298 00:17:30.340 --> 00:17:31.020 Howard onslaught. 299 00:17:32.660 --> 00:17:37.560 Howard has many things going for him. The world is now so complicated and frightening 300 00:17:37.560 --> 00:17:43.100 that many people want to trust Howard as almost a father figure with their fate and get on 301 00:17:43.100 --> 00:17:47.480 with their lives to meet the increasing obligations he imposes on them, including funding their 302 00:17:47.480 --> 00:17:52.260 basic health care and education for their kids. They're working longer, harder and less 303 00:17:52.260 --> 00:17:56.680 securely. Their lives are tightly managed and they want to relax for sport, entertainment 304 00:17:56.680 --> 00:17:57.720 and home renovation. 305 00:17:59.360 --> 00:18:00.320 Many have been forced to leave the country, but they have not been forced to leave the 306 00:18:00.320 --> 00:18:04.680 They have disconnected from their society as communities disintegrate, partly because 307 00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:08.940 few have the time to contribute to their local community and build local support systems. 308 00:18:09.340 --> 00:18:14.100 Many people, perhaps most, have lost faith in their democratic institutions, the law, 309 00:18:14.280 --> 00:18:19.700 media, public service and business. Many sell their alienations and insecurities through 310 00:18:19.700 --> 00:18:23.760 downward envy and prejudice, a tendency happily exploited by Howard. 311 00:18:25.220 --> 00:18:28.540 Fault Line 1. Will true liberals revolt? 312 00:18:28.880 --> 00:18:29.220 . 313 00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:35.800 Some of Howard's traditional constituency, particularly small-L liberals, are uncomfortable 314 00:18:35.800 --> 00:18:40.500 with Howard's agenda. As natural opponents of big government, they didn't like his 315 00:18:40.500 --> 00:18:44.440 grab for state power and control with his original ASIO and anti-terrorism bills. 316 00:18:44.760 --> 00:18:49.080 They prefer a more independent foreign policy and they're growing increasingly concerned 317 00:18:49.080 --> 00:18:54.120 at the excesses of Howard's refugee policy. They understand that his cross-media proposals 318 00:18:54.120 --> 00:18:56.820 threaten our democratic right to know what's going on. 319 00:18:57.340 --> 00:18:58.740 Fault Line 2. Will true liberals revolt? 320 00:18:58.740 --> 00:18:58.900 . 321 00:18:58.900 --> 00:18:59.200 Some of Howard's traditional constituency, particularly small-L liberals, are uncomfortable 322 00:18:59.220 --> 00:19:03.860 combination of small government in the economic sphere and extra-large, highly intrusive government 323 00:19:03.860 --> 00:19:09.340 in the private and social spheres is untenable. It's also grating because at the international 324 00:19:09.340 --> 00:19:14.680 level where big business makes the big money and wheels the real power, Howard is a fan 325 00:19:14.680 --> 00:19:19.720 of international agreements to grease big business wheels. Yet on human and civil rights 326 00:19:19.720 --> 00:19:24.140 and environmental protection he walks away from our international obligations and slams 327 00:19:24.140 --> 00:19:28.920 them as a breach of national sovereignty. In other words, the place of the citizen in 328 00:19:28.920 --> 00:19:33.920 the state and the world is downgraded, even ignored, as we are told we exist to serve 329 00:19:33.920 --> 00:19:37.420 the economy and Howard busily dismantles our civil society. 330 00:19:38.600 --> 00:19:43.220 I believe that some in the business world will also grow increasingly concerned at Howard's 331 00:19:43.220 --> 00:19:48.320 agenda. After all, if Packer and Murdoch control the mainstream media, we're talking about 332 00:19:48.320 --> 00:19:53.020 an effective duopoly. This means the pair could set advertising rates at high levels, 333 00:19:53.220 --> 00:19:58.900 hurting big and small business alike. The pair could also, and already do, veto advertising 334 00:19:58.900 --> 00:20:03.980 which is not in their interests. Already in Sydney professionals like lawyers and accountants 335 00:20:03.980 --> 00:20:09.320 have to decide whether they're Packer or Murdoch people. An increase in their power compromises 336 00:20:09.320 --> 00:20:10.280 citizens further. 337 00:20:11.300 --> 00:20:17.500 An interesting piece in The Australian's Media Supplement two weeks ago now revealed that 338 00:20:17.500 --> 00:20:24.520 stockbroker Roger Coleman of CZZ Equities had advised independent Senator Shane Murphy 339 00:20:24.520 --> 00:20:28.880 and One Nation's Len Harris on Howard's cross-media campaign. 340 00:20:30.380 --> 00:20:31.100 I'm quoting. 341 00:20:31.900 --> 00:20:36.340 In his role as a broker, Coleman had previously advised financial institutions which media 342 00:20:36.340 --> 00:20:38.700 share prices would benefit from media reform. 343 00:20:39.480 --> 00:20:44.180 I was arguing against the research I put out and I was arguing in my capacity as a private 344 00:20:44.180 --> 00:20:52.240 citizen, he says. I did not want to be swamped by Kerry Packer. Brave man. We've all got 345 00:20:52.240 --> 00:20:58.100 to be brave. I'm sorry. I know it's hard. There's now a gaping hole in our political 346 00:20:58.100 --> 00:20:58.540 marketplace. 347 00:20:59.120 --> 00:21:05.100 Small-L Liberals and middle-class Labor voters with similar values have nowhere to go. Last 348 00:21:05.100 --> 00:21:09.300 year the Democrats imploded after Meg Lees and her supporters sought to move the Democrats 349 00:21:09.300 --> 00:21:13.980 into the centre with the policy of cooperating with the Coalition agenda in exchange for 350 00:21:13.980 --> 00:21:19.100 side deals on things like the environment and the ABC, while standing firm on core Small-L 351 00:21:19.100 --> 00:21:26.380 principles of a non-intrusive state and human and civil rights. That cause was lost, but 352 00:21:26.380 --> 00:21:28.880 Lees now has a new party, the Australian Progressive Alliance. It's a new party that's been 353 00:21:28.900 --> 00:21:34.140 working for a long time. It's a hope-less cause, one would think, without the attraction 354 00:21:34.140 --> 00:21:38.940 of a big name to get momentum and perhaps even a few breakaway Liberals from what's 355 00:21:38.940 --> 00:21:41.100 left of the moderate strand of the Liberal Party. 356 00:21:42.120 --> 00:21:46.520 There was a wild interview recently in the Bulletin with former opposition leader John 357 00:21:46.520 --> 00:21:51.920 Hewson in which he strongly criticised John Howard's agenda. Hewson is an economic dry 358 00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:56.740 with progressive views on foreign policy, the environment and human rights. He supports 359 00:21:56.740 --> 00:21:58.160 us signing the Kyoto Protocol. 360 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:03.220 He opposed us invading Iraq with that UN sanction and is a critic of our refugee policy. 361 00:22:04.280 --> 00:22:07.640 Maxine McHugh, after hearing his rave over lunch, wrote, 362 00:22:07.820 --> 00:22:12.280 Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Is this the sound of a resurgent political ambition? 363 00:22:12.660 --> 00:22:17.740 Is John Hewson making another run? He doesn't back away from the question. I've had dozens 364 00:22:17.740 --> 00:22:22.300 of offers to go back, wealthy people offering to fund me, either to go back or set up a 365 00:22:22.300 --> 00:22:27.200 new party. Every time there's a pre-selection in Wentworth, Hewson's old Sydney seat, there 366 00:22:27.200 --> 00:22:31.940 are people who want to know if I'll run. But my view in life is you never go back, 367 00:22:32.520 --> 00:22:37.980 Maxine writes. But to paraphrase what Al Gore's mate Bill Clinton would say, it may depend 368 00:22:37.980 --> 00:22:39.800 on what going back means. 369 00:22:41.540 --> 00:22:45.180 I've had quite a few conversations with Liberal moderate staffers and polys over the years 370 00:22:45.180 --> 00:22:50.260 where the question of a new, true Liberal Party came up. It's probably not possible, 371 00:22:50.440 --> 00:22:54.400 for now at least, but Hewson's musings indicate some alternatives. 372 00:22:54.960 --> 00:22:55.020 1. 373 00:22:55.820 --> 00:22:57.020 Liberal-aligned independence 374 00:22:57.020 --> 00:22:57.180 2. 375 00:22:57.200 --> 00:22:58.620 ! 376 00:22:58.620 --> 00:22:58.720 ! 377 00:22:58.720 --> 00:22:58.860 ! 378 00:22:58.860 --> 00:22:59.040 ! 379 00:23:28.380 --> 00:23:28.820 ! 380 00:23:28.820 --> 00:23:28.840 ! 381 00:23:01.860 --> 00:23:02.860 ! 382 00:23:02.860 --> 00:23:03.860 ! 383 00:23:03.860 --> 00:23:04.860 ! 384 00:23:04.860 --> 00:23:05.860 ! 385 00:23:05.860 --> 00:23:06.860 ! 386 00:23:06.860 --> 00:23:07.860 ! 387 00:23:07.860 --> 00:23:08.860 ! 388 00:23:08.860 --> 00:23:09.860 ! 389 00:23:09.860 --> 00:23:10.860 ! 390 00:23:10.860 --> 00:23:11.860 ! 391 00:23:11.860 --> 00:23:12.860 ! 392 00:23:12.860 --> 00:23:13.860 ! 393 00:23:13.860 --> 00:23:14.860 ! 394 00:23:14.860 --> 00:23:15.860 ! 395 00:23:15.860 --> 00:23:16.860 ! 396 00:23:16.860 --> 00:23:17.860 ! 397 00:23:17.860 --> 00:23:18.860 ! 398 00:23:18.860 --> 00:23:19.860 ! 399 00:23:19.860 --> 00:23:20.860 ! 400 00:23:20.860 --> 00:23:21.860 ! 401 00:23:21.860 --> 00:23:22.860