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Well, good afternoon to find out late afternoon, ladies and gentlemen,
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welcome to the Adelaide Festival of ideas,
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or perhaps more appropriately welcome back to the Adelaide festival of ideas.
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I'm sure a lot of you have been to sessions this morning and yesterday.
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My name is John McDougal.
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I work with professor Alan Snyder at the center for the mine, which is a,
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a joint venture between the ANU and university of Sydney.
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And our speaker today is on our board.
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Most serendipitously it wasn't a prearranged that I should be cheering his
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session. But number two, most welcome privileged to be doing. So
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Peter was was born in Queensland.
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I was an avid reader and thought his own inner inclinations were tending towards
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literature and history.
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Until he was reading Sartre and Hemingway and Huxley and thought he should be a
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man of action and achieve something.
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And I think we can safely say he's done that.
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He was he was struck by this desire to do something useful and was interested in
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his cousins working epidemiology in in viruses.
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And he maintained that that interest and completed a a veterinary degree.
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And in fact, I think is still the only Nobel Laureate with her,
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such a qualification.
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He met Rolf Zinkernagel and together they
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did a lot of work and I believe he was able to form a friendship and
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relationship with Ralph primarily because he was the only one in the the
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institution who could bear to listen to Ralph's opera singing.
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They shared the Nobel prize in 1996 for their work on how the immune system
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recognizes virus infected cells.
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So most profound accomplishment and one of the few
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living Australian Nobel laureates, but of course as Adelaide would, well, no,
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not the only Nobel Laureate living in, in Australia.
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We had the south African JM quit Sayer in a residents in Adelaide.
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Peter was named Australian of the year, the following year in 1997.
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And so he's had a busy time in his life,
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changed dramatically since plugging along and doing profound research in our
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finds himself in attendance that thinking conferences in Melbourne in the last
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couple of days.
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And he'll be enjoying expanding his ideas on what can be done to
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to Adelaide's festival of ideas.
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He now contributes regularly to a scientific debate in Australia and across the
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globe really, and radio television and in the press.
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And he moves between Memphis. He spends a few months of the year in Memphis,
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it's a Jude's and the university of Melbourne.
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And he's going to discuss what there is to be done on influenza, aids,
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SARS and other scary monsters. Ladies and gentlemen, please. Welcome.
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[inaudible].
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Thank you very much, John. And and thank you for coming.
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Are you getting an echo on the audience or is it okay? Yeah,
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I guess is a better if I move away. No,
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that are here. Okay. Okay. Stay here. I'll be disciplined. Right.
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Okay. Yeah.
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So I'm going to talk about about some infectious diseases and
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some infectious diseases that really hit the headlines and are really quite
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scary monsters. And we'll all be aware of them at some level or another.
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Before I say that,
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I think I need to say something about the interaction between infection and
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human beings. And we are of course,
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large complex multicellular multiorgan systems.
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We're very complex organisms in the world of biology and in
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on us live many simpler life forms.
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Each of us,
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as we walk the streets is a type of walking ecosystem with lots of little
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organisms living on our surface membranes in our
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intestine and all the rest of it.
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And to keep those organisms from invading us from
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going further than the surface of the lung or the surface of the gut,
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we have a well-developed immune system.
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The immune system is there basically so that we can respond if
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organisms invade and we can get rid of them.
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And mostly the organisms that live with us all the time,
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the ones that walk around with us sit quite happily there and don't attempt to
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go any further.
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And we have the immune system damping them down.
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Now that can go wrong. It can go wrong with our immune system is destroyed.
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And some of the things that normally live happily with us will invade and cause
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disease. And of course though,
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that's not the normal mode of infection that most of us suffer.
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And that is when something comes in from outside and we get influenza or
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we get the croup or something like that, depending on how old we are.
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And then our immune system, again, turns on and deals with that.
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And the great protection that we have against infection is of course,
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the vaccine where we give our immune system and the immune system is capable of
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learning. We give the immune system and experience of say,
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polio virus by infecting the baby or the young child with a dumbed
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down version of polio virus, which is not very dangerous.
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And then the immune system gets primed up.
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It makes the antibodies and the T cells and all the rest of it that handled
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poliovirus infection.
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And so polio comes back again and it's fully virulent form.
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We handle it and get rid of it.
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So our great weapon against infectious disease is vaccination.
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And what I want to tell you about really is the threat posed by
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three major infectious diseases, the SARS epidemic,
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the aids epidemic, or the aids pandemic, and the influenza viruses.
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What I want to tell you about is how science has dealt with those
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the extent to which science can deal with them and what our limitations are and
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how also we've dealt with them or not dealt with them culturally,
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and how that influences the way that these disease process manifest
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in human populations. Now,
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the first I'll talk about is the aids epidemic.
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I came to him human consciousness in the early 1980s,
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when in the United States,
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we started to see gay men developing a very serious and fatal wasting
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disease. People couldn't work out what was causing it.
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There were all sorts of speculations that what was happening there was
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speculations about toxins various other things about what actually was
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causing aids.
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It was only when we actually isolated the virus that we started to
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understand what was really going on.
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And the isolation of that virus was quite a demanding exercise.
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It required a fairly high technology for the time and the fact that we were
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able to do it really reflected the stage two its science had developed at that
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time. If aids had come along 50 or 60 years earlier,
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we would not have been able to isolate that virus.
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And we would not have known how to handle it. And as a result of that,
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we would not have been able to put in place as effectively,
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the control mechanisms that were put in place.
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The actual science that was done that led to the detection of the aids virus
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really found its home in the development of molecular biology.
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After the second world war,
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the the work that went on in places like cold spring Harbor,
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and it very much found its home in the type of technology that was developed at
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the national cancer Institute in Washington,
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DC under the funding of Richard Nixon's war against
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cancer, the war against cancer has had various successes,
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but one of its successes really was to bring us to the stage in science,
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where we can handle that died now aids, where did it come from? What happened?
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And where's it going? Well,
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I now know from studies that have been done extensively in Africa,
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that the aids virus is essentially a chimpanzee virus,
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which has come across into humans. It is the case that viruses,
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let me just say what a virus is for a start. I'm talking about virus disease.
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A virus is a very simple organism that cannot replicate
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itself outside living cells.
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It can't like a bacteria grow independently in the soil or outside the body.
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It has to get within a cell and it uses the cellular mechanisms of say a lung
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cell, or it's an influenza virus or a lymphocyte of white blood cell,
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or that's the aids virus to actually replicate itself and then produce more
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virus particles, and then go on and infect more individuals.
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So these are very simple parasites we're talking about.
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And SARS aids influenza all caused by viruses. Okay?
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So the aids virus is a virus that's lived for a very long time
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chimpanzees.
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And what happens when a virus lives with a particular population over
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a very long time,
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is that the two co evolve so that they live with each other,
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the classic case in human beings is the virus Epstein BARR virus.
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This is the virus that cause infectious mononucleosis in adolescents.
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99% of the people in the room here will be infected with Epstein BARR virus.
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If our immune systems were destroyed, Epstein, BARR, virus could cause cancer.
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It could cause lymphoma, but that's not what normally happens.
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Normally we don't die from Epstein-Barr virus infection. We outlive it.
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That has means we die from something else you realize, of course,
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that survival in medicine or long-term survival means you die from something
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else. So,
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so that's a virus which has very much evolved to live with us.
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And if you actually look at that virus Epstein virus,
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you can see that it's taken in bits of our immune systems to sort of fool the
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immune system, but not fully immune system,
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to the extent where the virus would actually go along and destroy us,
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because if it did that, it would actually destroy itself as well.
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So that's what we call a stable ecosystem. If you like,
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if you're thinking in in terms of the environment.
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So the aids virus is like that in chimpanzees,
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the chimpanzees are infected, they produce the virus,
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but it doesn't do them much damage and they live quite happily with it.
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How was it fine found that it was in chimpanzees,
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a young German scientist working in the United States
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started to look in primate populations in Africa to try and find correlates of
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the aids virus. And she,
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she was studying chimpanzee populations as she her
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job really was to chimpanzees,
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tend to sort of get into a sort of a nest in trees as I understand it.
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And when they're all together in the evening, they sort of pee out of the nest.
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I mean, that's the the big tent of the American Republican party.
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It's better to have them inside and out than outside and in
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George Bush is familiar with that.
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And and so she was actually standing outside and had a stick on the end of a
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tin. This is research for you. This is high quality,
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top level biomedical research.
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She had a stick on the end of a tin collecting the urine, and then hour,
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I went from that to isolate the chimpanzee viruses and to show that the
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chimpanzee virus is pretty much identical to the human virus so that it came
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across.
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We think into the human population because of the practice of killing bushmeat,
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what's been happening through the world over the last a hundred years or so is
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an enormous increase in population. You realize, of course,
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that the human population between 1900 and 2000
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increased four fold, that is at 1900.
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If we were looking in this room, only that quarter would have been full.
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And now the whole room is full.
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So four fold increase in the human population as a result of that,
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because much of that increase in population has been going on in the developing
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world.
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The people have been pushing more and more into jungle areas and the food
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suppliers have become more and more stretched and we've had more and more
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incursions.
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And we've seen that incursion with not numerous infections actually
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coming across from the animal population or the humans.
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This has always happened, but it's been happening with increasing frequency.
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Another case is a bowl of virus infection, which I won't talk about today.
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But again comes in from a while.
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There's some Vedic reservoir into human populations sporadically, as it happens,
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what probably happened with aids was that someone was killing bushmeat.
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There's a practice of killing primates for food,
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and they probably were not killing the Chimp.
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They probably cut their hand and it probably got into their circulation.
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Then it was spread and it would spread very rapidly.
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And of course it spread through international air travel
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and it's spread in Africa. The spread of aids as the epidemic developed,
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could be traced very clearly to the truck routes goods come into Africa.
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They come into ports like Mombasa, and then if you're getting stuff into Uganda,
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most of that would go by truck and you could see the aids virus developing along
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those truck routes, being spread by the truck drivers,
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low-level prostitution and all the rest of it. Now dealing with aids.
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What do we have to deal with that? Well, we have very good drugs.
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Science has given us excellent antiviral drugs,
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and we have aids drugs that target three different pathways and someone in our
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communities who is suffering,
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who was unfortunate enough to have got a blood transfusion with the aids virus.
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And of course those people died early on.
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Of course it doesn't happen now because we can test the blood supply and the
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blood supply is safe in our type of community,
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or if they are indulging in risky activity and they contract aids,
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then now will be treated with drugs.
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And if they can tolerate the drugs and not everyone does most will have
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reasonably normal lives. It's not a good disease to have.
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It's still in the end can kill you,
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but many people can live reasonably normal with the aids virus.
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So that's one line where science has actually triumphed over ovaries.
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In one sense. The other thing we'd like to have though is a vaccine.
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The problem of course, with aids drugs,
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is that we can afford them in and asset types of societies.
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But if you're looking at Africa where it's a major problem,
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and you've got incidence rates up around 30 to 40% in some communities,
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the aids drugs are simply unaffordable. As you know,
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there's a big push to get aids drugs into Africa.
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The trouble is though you really need to monitor people who are on aids drugs.
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And if you got to be just treated with one drug rather than the three drugs,
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because the three drugs target three different types of mechanisms that the
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virus uses to multiply. If you just target one of those,
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it's easy for the virus to mutate because this virus has to be tight very
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quickly and you'll get drug resistance.
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So you've got to target the three different things because then the virus can't
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tricky enough to get past it.
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What we really need for Africa and the developing world is a vaccine.
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And I've been involved in vaccine research on this. It's not my major interest.
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My major interest is influenza immunity.
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I've been involved in vaccine research too, though. I've just in fact,
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two weeks ago,
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I was in Washington DC chairing a final session to hand
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up $300 million for night's vaccine project.
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There are a number of projects on at that level funded by the gates foundation
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funded by various other organizations. And so a lot of money is being spent,
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but we're not getting terribly far with an aids vaccine.
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And it's not really clear.
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We can make one because the virus is so tricky and so forth.
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That's what we would like to have for Africa. We don't have it.
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So how do you deal with aids if you don't have a vaccine? Well,
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the way we deal with an analysis, it of course, is that we warn people about it.
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We've told people what the risks are and people have modified their behavior
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accordingly. And so we don't have a massive aids problem.
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It's been very hard to get that message across in some of the developing
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countries. Thailand had an enormous problem with aids.
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They thought I wouldn't, but they did.
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But the ties are very well-organized and very smart people.
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They got the king who's major maker of opinion. They got the army,
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they got the religious groups and the priests and school teachers,
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and everyone organized to get out the message that risky behavior risk of
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getting condoms were made freely available.
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And they dropped off their aids epidemic like that.
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Senegal and Uganda were also very,
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very public about how to deal with the aids epidemic publicly, the,
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the Islamic memes in, in Senegal,
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read the Qur'an and interpreted as saying that it's quite okay to use condoms
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and therefore they didn't preach against them, which was very valuable.
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And so those countries have done roughly well in Africa. On the other hand,
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you've got other countries that have refused to acknowledge.
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We had a big problem in South Africa for a long time.
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One of the really unfortunate things that happened early on with aids is that
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even some of the scientific community were rushing around saying that the aids
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virus doesn't cause it, this became a sort of crazy thing in a sense,
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the aids virus doesn't cause aids.
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What it does is the aids virus destroys a key component of the immune system
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called the CD. T-Cell. If you destroy the CD four,
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T-cell you decrease your level of,
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of resistance to all sorts of other infections like tuberculosis,
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like some of the things that normally live in our gut and in our lungs and they
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kill you. So it's like, you know, saying, well,
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guns don't kill people. Bullets do. And it just makes just about as much sense.
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So but then that led to a lot of confusion,
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led to confusion and getting out the message that the sort of behavioral changes
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that need to be made. And it continues to be a major problem.
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So while the advanced will says, well,
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another problem that has happened, and this is again, a cultural problem,
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and this is not a cultural problem comes from Africa.
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This is a cultural problem that comes from the advanced world because of the
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extreme sensitivities in the American political system.
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At the moment to the values of the religious right funding
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for women's health has dropped massively in the developing world.
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The cause women's health clinics are identified as providing abortion.
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And so the type of funding that would have gone to women's health clinics and
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it's women who can control these issues much better than anyone else, of course.
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And it's the women that you have to educate that type of money has fallen off
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dramatically. So while on the one hand,
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president Bush is putting $300 million.
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This grant that I was helping to adjudicate was that a direct initiative of the
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president, he's putting $300 million in more into aids vaccine,
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and it's putting more into aids treatment,
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their administration at the same time,
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it's cutting the sort of very practical programs that that would help
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to curtail the outbreak. In fact,
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one of the recent things I heard from one of my colleagues had been in Africa,
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she'd come to the conclusion that actually the best way to stop the aids
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epidemic, the bribe, which doctors, because they have a lot yeah. Of influence.
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And if we gave the witchdoctors condoms that they could sell at one center each,
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and we gave them $10,000 a year to promote ABC that's
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ABC is abstinence be faithful. Or if you can't do that, use a condom.
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Then we probably have a very high success rate.
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So then you have a situation where we have an epidemic,
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which has come to some extent through various cultural effects,
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population effects, cultural effects,
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and it's come into come throughout the whole world.
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We have a situation where science has done very well in designing drugs and
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developing drugs and keeping ahead of the disease with drugs,
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because there are new drugs being described all the time.
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We have a situation though, where science is to some extent,
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at least at the moment,
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running up against a brick wall because we don't have know how to make a
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vaccine. And when I was looking at these $300 million grants,
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I couldn't identify a single original idea in them.
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And we're trying everything I can tell you. I mean,
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we really are trying everything. And it's, it's,
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it's one of the things where science at times hits a wall and we don't actually
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know whether we will get over that wall. Science is great,
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but it doesn't solve every problem. And then on the other hand,
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you have the cultural problem, the cultural problem of getting across to people,
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the right information,
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the people accepting that information and then acting on it.
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And there you have the whole mix of global infectious disease in this one
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disease aids what's doing at the moment. Of course,
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you've got the other problem with intravenous drug users, which is is, is,
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is a big problem in Russia. It's the,
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the problem in the American inner cities. And of course,
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it's the intravenous drug users,
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users that spelt spread the disease heterosexually at least initially.
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But of course in Africa, aids is a fully heterosexual disease. So,
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so we are with aids. Where, where, where do we stand?
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3 million people will die this year of aids and 3 million people die next year.
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And it's anything it's ramping up.
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And and that's that's the current state until we change
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really people's behavior. No,
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sorry. I was on the other hand was a totally different story. SAS again,
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it's scenes. And it took us a while to work this out. Not very long.
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SAS came along about the beginning of 2003.
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Initially people thought people are dying of this terrible respiratory
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infection. People thought this is influenza.
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We'd had an earlier outbreak of an,
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a bird influenza getting across into humans in Hong Kong.
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And people were dying in that part of the world.
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And we first saw a lot of this in, in Hong Kong. And with,
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with initially it was sort of influenza.
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They did the tests as non-influenza and suddenly people say,
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what are we facing here is something. And we don't know what it is.
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And it's killing people and it's killing people quickly.
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And it seems to be very infectious, very dangerous situation.
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And it looks as though it's a respiratory disease, which is even more dangerous.
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You know, you can change your behavior.
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[inaudible] With respect to aids and hopefully not get aids unless you're
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unlucky and in a traffic accident.
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And you happened to be in Africa and you get bad blood or something,
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but you can't change your behavior and stop yourself getting a respiratory
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infection. There's nothing we can do about it.
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We're totally vulnerable to respiratory viruses. We can walk around with masks.
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They're not very effective and all the rest of it. So it is scary.
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So SARS was frightening because we didn't know what it was.
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It was killing people and spreading rapidly.
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We reacted very strongly and very quickly,
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all sorts of controls on travel were put in place.
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We had temperature sensors in the airport trying to tell where the people had a
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fever or not.
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I was flying through Singapore airport at that stage and everyone's rushing
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around with masks on Toronto essentially shut down the disease,
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got to Toronto in the end, the disease cost.
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I don't know how many billion dollars.
385
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I think it's something like 30 or $40 billion in economic loss to various
386
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countries. What was it? Well,
387
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in three months we had the virus out. It really was remarkably quick.
388
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And the reason that it was so quick is that we were working in a
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well-established global network. When I say we, I wasn't personally involved,
390
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but the scientists were working in a well-established global network,
391
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which is the influenza network, which operates globally. It's it's, it's,
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it's injured. Its headquarters are in Geneva with the world health organization.
393
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And we have regional influenza centers throughout the world.
394
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There was one in Hong Kong,
395
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which had been monitoring influenza viruses coming out of China.
396
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And I'll tell you about that a bit later for some considerable time.
397
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And it was that influenza network that reacted very quickly or very good
398
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scientists right throughout the world.
399
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It turns out the virus was got out first in Hong Kong,
400
00:23:37.560 --> 00:23:39.690
but it was a race between Hong Kong and the Netherlands,
401
00:23:39.900 --> 00:23:44.520
the CDC in Atlanta and a group in Canada as well. And so everyone was onto it.
402
00:23:45.440 --> 00:23:48.110
Within a couple of months, we had the virus out, we knew what it was.
403
00:23:48.140 --> 00:23:51.410
It was a new virus. It's a virus that's known as a Corona virus.
404
00:23:51.830 --> 00:23:55.430
These viruses do cause respiratory infections generally very mild.
405
00:23:55.640 --> 00:23:58.700
They cause a disease called infectious bronchitis in chickens,
406
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a respiratory disease type disease.
407
00:24:02.000 --> 00:24:06.140
And here was coming across into humans. Where did it come from? Well,
408
00:24:06.141 --> 00:24:09.800
that was worked out very quickly to once the virus was sequenced,
409
00:24:09.830 --> 00:24:13.970
they found exactly the same virus in the Gwangju province,
410
00:24:14.000 --> 00:24:17.420
in Southern China, in Himalayan civet cats.
411
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Now Chinese culture over the years has tended to
412
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at least some of their columnary culture has focused on taking animals from the
413
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wild and preparing them for the table.
414
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And one of the things they eat is the civet cats, which are carnival,
415
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obviously.
416
00:24:35.360 --> 00:24:40.340
And when I compared the virus within humans with the virus that they got out of
417
00:24:40.341 --> 00:24:44.750
the civic cats in the live animal market, in that,
418
00:24:44.780 --> 00:24:48.260
in that town, they found that the civet cat virus is exactly identical,
419
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except it's a little bit longer.
420
00:24:50.300 --> 00:24:53.990
So what had happened was when the virus went across from civet cats,
421
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into humans,
422
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a bit of the virus genome dropped out and it hadn't gone the other way because
423
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otherwise this suspicion might've been well,
424
00:25:01.551 --> 00:25:05.360
we transferred it to the civic cats, but as, because a bit is lost,
425
00:25:05.540 --> 00:25:07.970
it means it must have gone that way. Okay.
426
00:25:08.150 --> 00:25:10.880
So somebody at one of those markets or,
427
00:25:11.120 --> 00:25:15.860
or one of the restaurants or something got infected with this virus just as a,
428
00:25:16.130 --> 00:25:19.250
as a chance thing, and that may have been happening for years,
429
00:25:19.251 --> 00:25:22.190
but it may not have spread very far because it turns out that the,
430
00:25:22.191 --> 00:25:24.590
the SARS virus is not that infectious.
431
00:25:25.040 --> 00:25:27.380
What really made it transmit so rapidly though,
432
00:25:27.650 --> 00:25:31.040
what happened was that coincided with the Chinese new year.
433
00:25:31.580 --> 00:25:35.720
And so there were massive numbers of people going home to visit their relatives
434
00:25:35.721 --> 00:25:38.000
and so forth, because this is the big family thing.
435
00:25:38.001 --> 00:25:42.860
It's like Thanksgiving in the U S or Christmas in Australia, and that spread it.
436
00:25:43.190 --> 00:25:45.770
And then the seem to be something that we still don't understand.
437
00:25:45.771 --> 00:25:47.720
There were a few, what we call super spreaders.
438
00:25:47.990 --> 00:25:51.950
One person seemed to spread it through at Hong Kong hotel in a way that was
439
00:25:51.951 --> 00:25:54.230
truly extraordinary. We still don't understand that fully.
440
00:25:54.380 --> 00:25:55.850
And that's how it got to Canada.
441
00:25:56.330 --> 00:25:59.810
But once we knew what the virus was and we started to understand it,
442
00:25:59.811 --> 00:26:01.690
and we started to understand how much it was,
443
00:26:01.691 --> 00:26:05.840
it was put out in the environment and when it's put out and we could get a test
444
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for it,
445
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then we found we could the public health people were able to deal with it
446
00:26:10.131 --> 00:26:12.980
quickly. By that time, a number of people had died,
447
00:26:13.220 --> 00:26:16.160
but not the enormous numbers of people that died that might've happened if it
448
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had just kept going. And if we didn't have the science to deal with it,
449
00:26:19.040 --> 00:26:21.980
and of course it was spread by rapid air travel. It went to Canada,
450
00:26:22.250 --> 00:26:26.960
it came down into Saigon and so forth from, from China. At first,
451
00:26:26.961 --> 00:26:29.990
the Chinese authorities weren't as open as they should have been about it,
452
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but later they handled it quite well. A nice set up massive hospitals,
453
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the quarantine people, we had massive quarantine.
454
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And what we'd always wondered is if a really serious disease came along
455
00:26:40.970 --> 00:26:44.010
in this part of the 20th century at the, of the 20th century,
456
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when people are so much more concerned with individual Liberty and individual
457
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self-determination,
458
00:26:49.050 --> 00:26:53.550
whether they would really accept the type of quarantine advice and so forth that
459
00:26:53.551 --> 00:26:58.020
would have had, would have had much more traction say in 1920 or something,
460
00:26:58.110 --> 00:26:59.620
right. People were living,
461
00:27:00.080 --> 00:27:04.460
you still living in a more distant and way in a sense. And people did.
462
00:27:04.550 --> 00:27:05.540
And the P the reason that people,
463
00:27:05.780 --> 00:27:08.690
it was because it was frightening and because people were scared.
464
00:27:08.900 --> 00:27:13.220
And so it was really the classical human fight and flight response. You're like,
465
00:27:13.400 --> 00:27:14.300
we reacted very,
466
00:27:14.301 --> 00:27:18.170
very quickly because we are a very immediate threat and everyone could see it,
467
00:27:18.171 --> 00:27:19.520
and everyone was frightened of it.
468
00:27:21.830 --> 00:27:25.820
The disease hasn't come back, it's a, we it's being watched,
469
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it's being monitored to see whether it will come back into the human population
470
00:27:29.271 --> 00:27:32.330
again. So far. It hasn't, it could, if it does,
471
00:27:32.360 --> 00:27:36.830
we'll deal with it much more quickly than the previous time what was unusual
472
00:27:36.831 --> 00:27:40.160
about it while everyone was thinking of it as a respiratory infection,
473
00:27:40.400 --> 00:27:44.510
but actually it wasn't being spread so much by the respiratory route as by oral
474
00:27:44.540 --> 00:27:47.990
fecal contamination, but hand to mouth spread. And it,
475
00:27:48.040 --> 00:27:51.320
and the virus survives for a very long time on surfaces.
476
00:27:51.560 --> 00:27:54.940
So if it was on a railing, for instance or, or,
477
00:27:54.941 --> 00:27:59.120
or whole railing or something like that, the virus will survive. And it's also,
478
00:27:59.240 --> 00:28:02.990
you get a lot of virus pushed out fairly late in the infection, like influenza,
479
00:28:02.991 --> 00:28:04.850
where it gets pushed out early on. And,
480
00:28:04.851 --> 00:28:08.360
and people with influence are very infectious early with SARS.
481
00:28:08.480 --> 00:28:09.650
They were infectious quite late.
482
00:28:09.830 --> 00:28:12.980
And a lot of the people that actually died from sizable medical professionals,
483
00:28:13.250 --> 00:28:17.060
because by the time they got into hospital from this infection,
484
00:28:17.270 --> 00:28:20.150
people were actually putting out a lot of virus and infecting a lot of other
485
00:28:20.151 --> 00:28:23.210
people. And so we've learned about the biology of the virus.
486
00:28:23.390 --> 00:28:26.810
And I think it really is a triumph of modern science and modern medicine,
487
00:28:26.811 --> 00:28:28.010
modern epidemiology,
488
00:28:28.011 --> 00:28:31.340
and so forth that we dealt with SaaS really in a matter of months,
489
00:28:31.610 --> 00:28:34.010
rather than a matter of years now,
490
00:28:34.460 --> 00:28:36.830
let's go on to that other grade in respiratory infection,
491
00:28:36.831 --> 00:28:41.150
which is influenza now influenza at the end of the first world,
492
00:28:41.151 --> 00:28:44.870
war influenza kills somewhere between 20 and 40 million people.
493
00:28:45.440 --> 00:28:48.050
It killed many more people than the first world war.
494
00:28:48.410 --> 00:28:52.640
And it was an absolutely catastrophic outbreak. Went all around the world.
495
00:28:52.641 --> 00:28:55.490
Australia did reasonably well out of it and got reasonably,
496
00:28:55.580 --> 00:28:58.760
got it reasonably late, but it killed a lot of Pacific Islanders.
497
00:28:58.760 --> 00:29:01.070
It killed people everywhere. It killed quite a lot of Australians,
498
00:29:01.071 --> 00:29:05.840
but not as badly as in some other places, the virus we knew it was influenza.
499
00:29:05.870 --> 00:29:09.470
We knew it was infectious. We tried all the quarantine things to stop it.
500
00:29:09.500 --> 00:29:13.850
They didn't work except where the U S Navy had control of the quarantine,
501
00:29:13.880 --> 00:29:17.390
I think in Western Samoa. And they shut it up just the way the military would.
502
00:29:17.391 --> 00:29:18.710
And they actually did keep it out,
503
00:29:18.860 --> 00:29:21.530
but the democratic societies didn't do well with it. It spread.
504
00:29:21.980 --> 00:29:24.950
And we didn't even isolate the virus for another.
505
00:29:24.951 --> 00:29:29.350
I think it was another 14 years when it was transmitted the ferrets in,
506
00:29:29.510 --> 00:29:32.240
in England. And we first isolated the influenza virus. In fact,
507
00:29:32.241 --> 00:29:36.350
the great Australian biologist immunologists McFarland Burnett happened to be in
508
00:29:36.351 --> 00:29:40.190
the Institute where the experiment was done. And he, he remained,
509
00:29:40.250 --> 00:29:44.230
he describes his autobiography. One of the scientists rushing down the corridor,
510
00:29:44.260 --> 00:29:47.500
they transmitted the ferrets and, and the is rushed down the corridor,
511
00:29:47.890 --> 00:29:51.610
sharing out the ferrets, knees, the ferrets, and that was it.
512
00:29:52.210 --> 00:29:54.550
They transmitted the ferrets and then it went from there.
513
00:29:54.970 --> 00:29:56.710
They still actually study influencer and ferrets.
514
00:29:56.711 --> 00:29:58.900
It's still closer to human influencer than anything else.
515
00:29:59.410 --> 00:30:03.550
And so influenza massive problem, massive threat. As you know,
516
00:30:03.551 --> 00:30:04.900
it changes all the time.
517
00:30:04.901 --> 00:30:09.730
It changes because our immune systems put selective pressure on it and it
518
00:30:09.731 --> 00:30:13.660
changes it mutates to avoid our immune system. So the influence of virus,
519
00:30:13.690 --> 00:30:18.460
most of us have been contracting over the last 30 to 45 years is what's called a
520
00:30:18.461 --> 00:30:20.890
variant of the Hong Kong flu. Now,
521
00:30:20.891 --> 00:30:23.200
where did the Hong Kong influenza virus come from?
522
00:30:23.440 --> 00:30:27.340
It came from darks and it came across in the humans from ducks.
523
00:30:27.400 --> 00:30:30.820
So we've been suffering from duck flu for the last 30 years. Okay.
524
00:30:31.960 --> 00:30:36.280
And this is the big threat because now we have this,
525
00:30:36.580 --> 00:30:39.130
these very virulent H five,
526
00:30:39.160 --> 00:30:42.670
you will have heard H is just one of the spikes on the surface of the virus.
527
00:30:42.671 --> 00:30:46.030
The virus has two spikes, one called hemagglutinin one neuraminidase.
528
00:30:46.180 --> 00:30:49.120
These are what the antibodies would react against because they have to react
529
00:30:49.121 --> 00:30:52.270
against the surface structure of the virus to do any good.
530
00:30:52.630 --> 00:30:56.530
And the H five is just a description of the avian flu virus,
531
00:30:56.560 --> 00:30:57.730
which is highly lethal,
532
00:30:57.910 --> 00:31:02.740
kills birds in enormous numbers being widely spread by ducks.
533
00:31:02.741 --> 00:31:05.410
It's very high Tillys and ducks killing a lot of wild birds.
534
00:31:05.620 --> 00:31:09.220
When it does transmit to humans, it can be highly lethal in humans,
535
00:31:09.460 --> 00:31:12.310
but it hasn't started to transmit horizontally between humans.
536
00:31:12.520 --> 00:31:14.230
It's just been going from birds to humans,
537
00:31:14.440 --> 00:31:17.080
very little evidence that it's spreading between humans.
538
00:31:17.350 --> 00:31:21.850
What we're scared of is because of the way the influenza virus genome,
539
00:31:22.390 --> 00:31:24.190
because of the way its genetic materials organized.
540
00:31:24.340 --> 00:31:26.740
It's organized in eight separate little bits.
541
00:31:27.010 --> 00:31:31.000
And what we're scared of is that a human being is going to get infected with a
542
00:31:31.001 --> 00:31:34.780
human influence of ours or pig will get infected with the human influence of
543
00:31:34.781 --> 00:31:36.250
ours. And at the same time,
544
00:31:36.251 --> 00:31:40.570
I get infected with the bird influenza virus and those eight bits from those two
545
00:31:40.571 --> 00:31:44.710
viruses will reassort in various ways. And we get a virus now,
546
00:31:44.711 --> 00:31:48.640
which grows well in humans that has this H five characteristic of the bird
547
00:31:48.641 --> 00:31:49.210
virus.
548
00:31:49.210 --> 00:31:52.960
Then we could have a high spreading virus that would could devastate human
549
00:31:52.961 --> 00:31:57.400
populations if it retains the type of lethality that it has in birds.
550
00:31:57.460 --> 00:32:01.210
And so that's the big threat out there. So what do we do about it? Well,
551
00:32:01.540 --> 00:32:04.930
science again, we understand exactly what's happening.
552
00:32:05.110 --> 00:32:09.580
We can follow these viruses as they emerge exactly in terms of their changes in
553
00:32:09.581 --> 00:32:12.040
sequence and so forth. And so we've got very good monitoring,
554
00:32:12.220 --> 00:32:13.870
very good international situation,
555
00:32:14.200 --> 00:32:17.320
making a vaccine influenza vaccines work well,
556
00:32:17.500 --> 00:32:19.630
as long as you have the right vaccine,
557
00:32:20.350 --> 00:32:22.480
the trouble is the virus is changing all the time.
558
00:32:22.780 --> 00:32:25.330
We couldn't initially make that vaccine.
559
00:32:25.540 --> 00:32:28.240
The difficulty was the influence of virus.
560
00:32:28.241 --> 00:32:31.900
Vaccines are grown in embryonated Hinz eggs. It seems primitive,
561
00:32:31.930 --> 00:32:34.840
but that's the way they grow to the highest concentration.
562
00:32:35.230 --> 00:32:36.970
And the problem was the virus was,
563
00:32:36.971 --> 00:32:41.660
was so lethal that they killing the hands eggs before they made more virus.
564
00:32:41.900 --> 00:32:45.560
And that of course wouldn't work for a vaccine, what we can do now,
565
00:32:45.620 --> 00:32:48.380
and that the vaccine is currently going through phase three trials.
566
00:32:48.381 --> 00:32:52.190
That's the final stage of trials in the United States is to make a vaccine
567
00:32:53.000 --> 00:32:54.650
whereby what we call reverse genetics.
568
00:32:55.040 --> 00:32:59.000
It's really a genetically modified organism and GMO where we can simply take one
569
00:32:59.001 --> 00:33:03.410
of the standard lab, vaccine strains, pop out one of its genes, pop in the bird,
570
00:33:03.411 --> 00:33:05.390
flu gene and make a new vaccine.
571
00:33:05.450 --> 00:33:09.860
The reason it has to be tested extensively is because it is a genetically
572
00:33:09.861 --> 00:33:13.220
modified organism and it will be the first such viral vaccine. It is.
573
00:33:13.630 --> 00:33:17.380
So we have a vaccine, whether we can get the right vaccines. The other question,
574
00:33:17.530 --> 00:33:21.100
we also have an antiviral drug, a drug called Tamiflu,
575
00:33:21.310 --> 00:33:25.510
which was they developed as a result of research that was done initially in in
576
00:33:25.511 --> 00:33:30.160
Melbourne it's it's targeting, it gets neuraminidase molecule. And it's what,
577
00:33:30.280 --> 00:33:33.100
one of the first examples of what we call rational drug design.
578
00:33:33.450 --> 00:33:37.060
It was solved by x-ray crystallography, or if we were doing it now,
579
00:33:37.061 --> 00:33:40.270
we'd use the synchrotron. The thing you may have heard of the Australia,
580
00:33:40.271 --> 00:33:43.930
the Victorian government is trying to get enough money out of the feds to finish
581
00:33:43.931 --> 00:33:44.764
it.
582
00:33:45.910 --> 00:33:49.630
The Victorian government is not loved by the federal government and they would
583
00:33:49.631 --> 00:33:53.680
rather just see it go down the tube and not have a synchrotron, but well,
584
00:33:54.280 --> 00:33:55.870
Adelaide probably doesn't love the Victorian government on there,
585
00:33:56.380 --> 00:33:59.800
but and anyway, well they're both labor governments.
586
00:34:00.070 --> 00:34:04.870
So so we do have, we do have a drug against the thing. Now the question is,
587
00:34:04.871 --> 00:34:09.460
is now as a logistics, if we had a mess of influence or outbreak influenza,
588
00:34:09.461 --> 00:34:13.150
unlike SAS spreads with enormous speed, modern air travel.
589
00:34:13.151 --> 00:34:15.730
And so with would spread it very, very rapidly indeed.
590
00:34:15.880 --> 00:34:19.510
And it'd go everywhere very fast. And if it's highly lethal virus we'll have,
591
00:34:19.720 --> 00:34:23.560
we'll have a lot of mortality and the vaccine,
592
00:34:23.800 --> 00:34:25.240
maybe the vaccine would be the right one.
593
00:34:25.241 --> 00:34:26.950
Maybe we'll have to make a slightly different one,
594
00:34:27.070 --> 00:34:30.160
but the problem will be getting enough vaccine out there quickly.
595
00:34:31.000 --> 00:34:35.350
That's a logistic problem and an economic problem as it is countries like
596
00:34:35.351 --> 00:34:39.190
Vietnam, Cambodia and so forth are not using the human vaccines anyway,
597
00:34:39.220 --> 00:34:42.370
which is one of the reasons why this virus might come out of that region.
598
00:34:44.020 --> 00:34:47.290
So vaccines are problem drug. Yes, we can buy the drug.
599
00:34:47.320 --> 00:34:50.050
And the Australian government has actually stockpile, quite a lot of drug.
600
00:34:50.260 --> 00:34:52.060
We don't know how much they won't talk about it.
601
00:34:52.830 --> 00:34:55.090
But that certainly it would certainly,
602
00:34:55.150 --> 00:34:57.880
it would probably cover the medical professionals. We don't know how much,
603
00:34:58.060 --> 00:35:01.900
how many more could be covered. The risk though is it's a single drug.
604
00:35:02.110 --> 00:35:05.410
The virus might be a tight and the drug may no longer work. So we don't know.
605
00:35:05.770 --> 00:35:09.910
So here we have a problem that we understand extremely well, scientifically.
606
00:35:10.120 --> 00:35:13.570
We understand extremely well, culturally everyone's aware of it,
607
00:35:14.080 --> 00:35:18.280
but in the end analysis, the problems are economic and logistic.
608
00:35:18.880 --> 00:35:22.390
And that's what we face with infectious disease. This is a constant battle.
609
00:35:22.840 --> 00:35:26.290
These are the three most prominent diseases over the last few years,
610
00:35:26.320 --> 00:35:29.170
new infectious diseases will come along. They do come along.
611
00:35:29.320 --> 00:35:32.710
New threats will come along, but that's something a little,
612
00:35:32.770 --> 00:35:35.970
a little at least about some of the scary monsters out there. I haven't,
613
00:35:35.971 --> 00:35:37.650
haven't scared you too much. Thank you.
614
00:35:53.580 --> 00:35:53.720
[inaudible].
615
00:35:53.720 --> 00:35:54.220
Thanks.
616
00:35:54.220 --> 00:35:58.370
Barry. If you put a new slate on my IVC every time I think about that now.
617
00:36:01.970 --> 00:36:04.160
IBC, abstinence be faithful. Use a condom.
618
00:36:04.770 --> 00:36:09.590
The other side says acknowledge human sexuality. Be realistic, use a condom.
619
00:36:13.790 --> 00:36:14.120
Okay.
620
00:36:14.120 --> 00:36:18.380
We've got just under 10 minutes left now with we'd like to take some questions
621
00:36:18.800 --> 00:36:22.310
for Peter, there's a microphone in the middle of the auditorium here,
622
00:36:22.311 --> 00:36:26.840
and one upstairs in the middle there people would put their hands up and move up
623
00:36:26.841 --> 00:36:29.870
to the microphone. We prepare questions and statements.
624
00:36:30.440 --> 00:36:34.580
I think you can stand or your local microphone.
625
00:36:35.030 --> 00:36:38.360
I think this works better than, okay. Yeah. Thanks.
626
00:36:38.450 --> 00:36:39.590
When you began your paper.
627
00:36:39.591 --> 00:36:44.390
So you spoke about the symbiosis that developed in the chimpanzee
628
00:36:44.391 --> 00:36:49.070
population between the aids virus and the chimpanzees over what sort of
629
00:36:49.071 --> 00:36:54.020
period does that symbiosis develop? It's obviously a Darwinian thing.
630
00:36:54.260 --> 00:36:57.620
Is it something that is foreseeable in humans and these are being hindered by
631
00:36:57.621 --> 00:36:59.840
the medical aid that's given to people? Well,
632
00:36:59.841 --> 00:37:01.370
I acknowledge that I would want treatment if I.
633
00:37:01.370 --> 00:37:03.050
Had it. It's true.
634
00:37:03.051 --> 00:37:07.580
I mean that if we left it go long enough we could see that
635
00:37:08.090 --> 00:37:10.460
that evolution, I mean, we know that there are certain,
636
00:37:10.610 --> 00:37:15.260
there are some human beings that lack some of the receptors for the aids
637
00:37:15.261 --> 00:37:18.560
virus. And so they won't be infected. In fact,
638
00:37:18.590 --> 00:37:22.940
we had cases really early on where people who were in contact with who should
639
00:37:23.000 --> 00:37:24.290
have gotten it just didn't get aids.
640
00:37:24.560 --> 00:37:27.260
So it would be true that that selective effect would work,
641
00:37:27.500 --> 00:37:31.460
but you might lose 90% of the human population.
642
00:37:31.490 --> 00:37:35.030
And most people wouldn't think that was acceptable, but I mean,
643
00:37:35.031 --> 00:37:37.310
that's what would have happened over evolutionary time.
644
00:37:37.520 --> 00:37:41.870
And in fact various components of our immune response
645
00:37:41.871 --> 00:37:46.520
system over evolutionary time have certainly been
646
00:37:46.521 --> 00:37:49.160
shaped by infection. For instance,
647
00:37:49.161 --> 00:37:54.140
in the middle ages you can read of a third to a half the population
648
00:37:54.141 --> 00:37:56.390
of Europe dying by dying a play.
649
00:37:56.960 --> 00:38:01.070
And so that probably has shaped various components are very immune system.
650
00:38:01.910 --> 00:38:04.700
Unfortunately we don't know what they were like before, you know, it
651
00:38:06.350 --> 00:38:08.750
scientists would always like to have the control.
652
00:38:08.810 --> 00:38:11.720
We would have liked to have the people who were on Mars or something,
653
00:38:11.930 --> 00:38:13.010
but we don't have them.
654
00:38:15.350 --> 00:38:19.850
Okay. I'm mighty. I came from China and you were mentioning
655
00:38:22.220 --> 00:38:25.460
[inaudible] assess heavy, heavy the FEVS
656
00:38:27.740 --> 00:38:29.810
and USA.
657
00:38:31.490 --> 00:38:33.080
Some Chinese scientists,
658
00:38:33.290 --> 00:38:37.420
scientists said that leads a disease came
659
00:38:38.320 --> 00:38:39.970
came from enema.
660
00:38:40.720 --> 00:38:45.400
And can you tell why didn't the
661
00:38:46.060 --> 00:38:51.010
scientist, they find the clear evidence or is it disease as it is
662
00:38:51.011 --> 00:38:52.600
my first first question.
663
00:38:53.170 --> 00:38:57.520
And the other question is that most FITO fatal disease
664
00:38:59.530 --> 00:39:02.080
can come from anymore.
665
00:39:02.650 --> 00:39:07.600
So SSI scientist what we should reconsider the
666
00:39:07.690 --> 00:39:11.570
relationship between the human being and the animal is a two.
667
00:39:12.360 --> 00:39:14.550
Thank you. I, I'm not sure.
668
00:39:14.551 --> 00:39:19.470
I totally got your question that the Chinese scientists had, you know,
669
00:39:19.471 --> 00:39:23.850
there was some political problems in speaking out as freely as they might've
670
00:39:23.851 --> 00:39:25.830
initially, but I mean,
671
00:39:25.890 --> 00:39:30.390
the Chinese work was published and it was good work and there is a sophisticated
672
00:39:31.620 --> 00:39:35.490
increasingly sophisticated, epidemiological and scientific culture in China.
673
00:39:35.670 --> 00:39:36.690
In fact, you know,
674
00:39:36.691 --> 00:39:40.950
I've just been to China and you sort of wonder whether the rest of us not going
675
00:39:40.951 --> 00:39:43.770
to be blown away in 20 years by what's happening in China.
676
00:39:44.940 --> 00:39:49.560
The second part of the question is the contact between animals and humans. Well,
677
00:39:49.561 --> 00:39:52.570
the animals that we've lived with for a long time, they,
678
00:39:52.571 --> 00:39:57.480
they can transmit infections to us. Toxoplasma worms,
679
00:39:57.660 --> 00:40:00.240
high data, and that sort of thing we're, we're aware of that.
680
00:40:00.241 --> 00:40:03.780
And the medical profession is variously aware of it and of course,
681
00:40:03.781 --> 00:40:06.280
deals with it. I mean, there are risks in, in,
682
00:40:06.281 --> 00:40:10.830
in this one of the risks that people worry about for instance is that
683
00:40:12.180 --> 00:40:17.040
people, we don't have enough organs for transplantation. So there's a very big,
684
00:40:17.100 --> 00:40:21.270
basic science effort going on, particularly in Boston, in fact,
685
00:40:21.271 --> 00:40:25.020
to to see if we can't engineer piggies.
686
00:40:25.170 --> 00:40:27.960
So that pig organs would actually be acceptable in humans.
687
00:40:28.230 --> 00:40:31.920
There are various reasons why they are not apart from any philosophical
688
00:40:32.130 --> 00:40:34.980
viewpoint or religious reservations you might have, but there are,
689
00:40:35.300 --> 00:40:36.820
there are good biological reasons.
690
00:40:36.821 --> 00:40:41.280
So one of the concerns is that we might get some hidden virus coming across from
691
00:40:41.281 --> 00:40:46.050
pigs into humans, which might be like, so as bad as aids. And so that's,
692
00:40:46.080 --> 00:40:50.430
that's a problem in the main we live reasonably well without animal things, but,
693
00:40:50.610 --> 00:40:55.200
but what happens usually is when people suddenly come into an area where they
694
00:40:55.201 --> 00:40:57.510
haven't been, I mean, another case of, of,
695
00:40:57.530 --> 00:41:00.480
of sort of human practice changing,
696
00:41:00.481 --> 00:41:05.100
if you like within the Korean war where there's a set of
697
00:41:05.101 --> 00:41:07.050
diseases called the hand of viruses,
698
00:41:07.260 --> 00:41:10.200
they're also in the Southern United States and in the Korean war where you
699
00:41:10.201 --> 00:41:14.430
suddenly had a lot of Caucasians sort of sleeping out and the Korean hillsides,
700
00:41:14.431 --> 00:41:19.380
they were breathing in what was really powdered excreta from the small mice
701
00:41:19.530 --> 00:41:20.490
that were carrying this virus.
702
00:41:20.490 --> 00:41:22.830
And you've got what we call Korean hemorrhagic fever.
703
00:41:23.160 --> 00:41:27.750
So this has been happening for many, many years and it is one of the problems.
704
00:41:27.751 --> 00:41:29.010
And for instance,
705
00:41:29.011 --> 00:41:32.940
one of the solutions in Thailand that they've used to try and minimize the risk
706
00:41:34.611 --> 00:41:38.180
of getting the H five virus across in humans is to get rid of the infected
707
00:41:38.210 --> 00:41:39.043
ducks.
708
00:41:39.470 --> 00:41:44.150
One of the things I've done in China is to shut down the live
709
00:41:44.151 --> 00:41:48.590
bird markets, which were also a very big risk. So we need to,
710
00:41:48.591 --> 00:41:53.000
to change our cultural practices at times to counter these infections
711
00:41:53.300 --> 00:41:53.931
also, you know,
712
00:41:53.931 --> 00:41:56.900
there are many infections out there where we could make vaccines and we don't
713
00:41:56.901 --> 00:41:59.990
for economic reasons. One is Murray valley encephalitis virus,
714
00:41:59.991 --> 00:42:02.930
which sometimes comes down into Victoria, carried by birds.
715
00:42:02.931 --> 00:42:05.480
And then my mosquitoes, we could make a vaccine against that,
716
00:42:05.481 --> 00:42:08.600
but the numbers of cases is so small that we haven't done that.
717
00:42:13.930 --> 00:42:14.763
Yeah.
718
00:42:14.770 --> 00:42:19.180
can I I was very interested to hear you say that
719
00:42:19.190 --> 00:42:23.950
viruses can't live very long in the atmosphere at
720
00:42:23.951 --> 00:42:24.610
large,
721
00:42:24.610 --> 00:42:29.500
but they can survive much longer if they can rest on a
722
00:42:29.501 --> 00:42:31.210
surface, such as a railing.
723
00:42:32.020 --> 00:42:34.990
It depends often the virus, sorry,
724
00:42:35.110 --> 00:42:38.890
often the virus is not surviving just as a,
725
00:42:38.900 --> 00:42:40.900
an isolated naked virus particle.
726
00:42:41.050 --> 00:42:45.970
It's often either within cells that have been shed or it's in mucus and
727
00:42:45.971 --> 00:42:48.970
so forth. And so that provides a sort of protection for it.
728
00:42:49.090 --> 00:42:51.670
Some viruses are much more resilient than others.
729
00:42:52.140 --> 00:42:54.460
Influenza virus is not particularly resilient,
730
00:42:54.760 --> 00:42:57.550
but say foot and mouth disease virus is.
731
00:42:58.150 --> 00:43:02.200
And so often though it's surviving in tissues or in some sort of extruded
732
00:43:02.201 --> 00:43:06.610
material they can't replicate that they can survive that it varies a lot for
733
00:43:06.611 --> 00:43:10.090
different viruses. And of course we will disinfect and so forth. Yeah.
734
00:43:12.710 --> 00:43:16.360
One more, one more question. Thank you. Do you,
735
00:43:16.570 --> 00:43:18.880
do you think that global warming,
736
00:43:18.881 --> 00:43:22.120
like the warming of the Earth's atmosphere and so forth will
737
00:43:23.740 --> 00:43:28.540
bring forth more viruses as we've seen with the bowl are
738
00:43:28.541 --> 00:43:31.810
coming when they environment is damaged or invited,
739
00:43:32.200 --> 00:43:34.960
it comes out from its natural environment.
740
00:43:35.560 --> 00:43:39.550
I think what you're bringing up is one of the things that we really face in the
741
00:43:39.551 --> 00:43:40.510
21st century,
742
00:43:40.520 --> 00:43:43.540
I think we're starting to deal with much more effective than we have,
743
00:43:43.720 --> 00:43:45.970
and that's the idea of very complex systems.
744
00:43:46.600 --> 00:43:51.310
And so part of the global warming thing could be an increase in
745
00:43:51.311 --> 00:43:55.210
infectious disease of various types. One of the reasons for that would be so as,
746
00:43:55.330 --> 00:43:57.760
as things as if the world gets warmer,
747
00:43:58.330 --> 00:44:03.100
then we will get a lot more mosquito-borne disease moving out of the
748
00:44:03.101 --> 00:44:07.930
tropics into the subtropical areas. And that's sort of the, sort of,
749
00:44:07.960 --> 00:44:12.100
there are border lines. For instance, Queensland gets a times,
750
00:44:12.101 --> 00:44:15.100
gets dinghy outbreaks, these mosquito borne infections.
751
00:44:15.520 --> 00:44:19.630
But if things get a lot warmer than that would move south,
752
00:44:19.840 --> 00:44:22.900
and what we'd also Matt start to see is hemorrhagic Dangy,
753
00:44:22.930 --> 00:44:25.840
which is a multiple daily infection in the north of Australia,
754
00:44:25.841 --> 00:44:26.800
which we've never seen.
755
00:44:26.980 --> 00:44:30.670
So this is a very real concern that we will actually change the balance of it,
756
00:44:30.730 --> 00:44:31.210
of course,
757
00:44:31.210 --> 00:44:36.180
a classical case of of a mosquito borne virus getting suddenly
758
00:44:36.570 --> 00:44:40.080
appearing in human populations was the west Navarez that suddenly appeared in
759
00:44:40.081 --> 00:44:44.220
the United States. And as now a major virus infection in the United States,
760
00:44:44.221 --> 00:44:45.330
and it came in from somewhere.
761
00:44:45.331 --> 00:44:50.190
I don't think we really know where a bird born mosquito born carried in birds
762
00:44:50.280 --> 00:44:51.960
transmitted by mosquitoes. Yeah.
763
00:44:52.140 --> 00:44:56.580
So I think mosquito insect borne viruses will certainly move out of the tropics
764
00:44:56.670 --> 00:44:58.890
as the tropics move out of the tropics.
765
00:45:00.860 --> 00:45:03.860
And do you see beauty in virus,
766
00:45:06.560 --> 00:45:11.090
like in particular aids far the way it can hide itself?
767
00:45:12.050 --> 00:45:14.390
It's a very tricky virus. I mean, you know,
768
00:45:14.420 --> 00:45:18.800
the way a lot of viruses we're talking about are what are called RNA viruses and
769
00:45:18.801 --> 00:45:22.610
they have very poor fidelity of copying. And so they can,
770
00:45:22.760 --> 00:45:27.230
they can mutate and change very, very rapidly. And so they're,
771
00:45:27.290 --> 00:45:32.150
they're very extremely dangerous. I mean, if it, no, if some,
772
00:45:32.270 --> 00:45:34.340
in some people deny the reality of evolution,
773
00:45:34.550 --> 00:45:38.990
you can never deny the reality of evolution within say viruses Ms.
774
00:45:40.100 --> 00:45:42.500
Influenza and so forth because they changed that fast
775
00:45:44.330 --> 00:45:46.820
because most people who are upset about evolution and upset about that,
776
00:45:46.821 --> 00:45:49.550
they're upset about, about the thoughts about human evolution.
777
00:45:52.220 --> 00:45:53.120
Thank you very much, Peter.
778
00:46:13.040 --> 00:46:13.873
[Inaudible].
779
00:46:13.990 --> 00:46:17.770
Peter, Peter's very shy, but he might mention that in August or late August,
780
00:46:17.771 --> 00:46:18.141
September,
781
00:46:18.141 --> 00:46:22.130
he has a book coming out the beginner's guide to winning a Nobel prize.
782
00:46:22.131 --> 00:46:24.050
So I suspect there's a several hundred Nobel prize.
783
00:46:24.170 --> 00:46:27.170
That's going to be coming out of this later. Thank you very much, professor
784
00:46:29.690 --> 00:46:29.690
[inaudible].